With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone like me can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be.
The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows:
POSITIVE FACTORS
Points 1.00 (at par)
Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00
Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60
Number of FTs Made 0.00
Assists 1.75
Offensive Rebounds 1.15
Defensive Rebounds 1.25
Blocks 1.60
Steals 2.10
NEGATIVE FACTORS
3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00
2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85
FTs Missed -0.85
Turnovers -2.00
Personal Fouls -0.80
ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT
3-Pointer Made 4.00
2-Pointer Made 2.60
Free Throw Made 1.00
3-Pointer Missed -1.00
2-Pointer Missed -0.85
Free Throw Missed -0.85
ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT
3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200
2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246
1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459
ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT
Assists vs Turnovers 0.533
Assist/Turnover Ratio 1.143
NOTES ON HOW TO USE ULTIMATE GAME BREAKDOWN RPR/RPP REPORTS
RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (the good things minus the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court.
Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did.
Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time.
The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless.
Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot!
Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender.
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
RPR 2.0B NUGGETS 118 TIMBERWOLVES 95 (Preseason Game Oct 9 2008)
MINNESOTA QUALITY
Corey Brewer, SF 1.003
Al Jefferson, PF 0.782
Mike Miller, SG 0.675
Blake Ahearn, PG 0.596
Sebastian Telfair, PG 0.558
Randy Foye, PG 0.508
Kevin Love, F 0.438
Ryan Gomes, PF 0.372
Chris Richard, PF 0.175
Mark Madsen, PF 0.137
Rodney Carney, SF -0.083
DENVER QUALITY
Renaldo Balkman, SF 2.600
Chris Andersen, PF 1.550
Ruben Patterson, SF 1.504
Steven Hunter, PF 1.167
Smush Parker, PG 1.092
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.979
J.R. Smith, SG 0.908
Nene Hilario, PF 0.852
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.743
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.633
Allen Iverson, SG 0.598
Juwan Howard, PF 0.521
Anthony Carter, PG 0.319
SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Historic Superstar for this game 1.400 and more
Superstar 1.050 1.399
Star 0.800 1.049
Outstanding 0.625 0.799
Major Role Player 0.525 0.624
Role Player 0.450 0.524
Minor Role Player 0.400 0.449
Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 0.399
Poor Game or Extremely Important Defender 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 0.274
Disaster Game Regardless of Defending and less 0.199
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
MINNESOTA QUANTITY
Al Jefferson, PF 25.80
Sebastian Telfair, PG 18.40
Corey Brewer, SF 16.05
Randy Foye, PG 15.75
Blake Ahearn, PG 13.70
Kevin Love, F 10.95
Ryan Gomes, PF 8.55
Mike Miller, SG 6.75
Chris Richard, PF 2.45
Mark Madsen, PF 2.05
Rodney Carney, SF -1.00
DENVER QUANTITY
Chris Andersen, PF 27.90
J.R. Smith, SG 23.60
Renaldo Balkman, SF 23.40
Ruben Patterson, SF 21.05
Kenyon Martin, PF 20.55
Nene Hilario, PF 18.75
Dahntay Jones, SG 16.35
Smush Parker, PG 14.20
Allen Iverson, SG 13.75
Linas Kleiza, SF 13.30
Steven Hunter, PF 10.50
Anthony Carter, PG 6.70
Juwan Howard, PF 6.25
SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
STARTERS
Happens only a few times a year in the NBA 45.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 40.0 44.9
Huge Game 35.0 39.9
Very Big Game 30.0 34.9
Big Game 25.0 29.9
Typical Average Game 20.0 24.9
Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 19.9
Way Below Average Game 12.0 15.9
Bad Game 9.0 11.9
Really Bad Game 5.0 8.9
Total Disaster and less 4.9
NON-STARTERS
Massive and Memorable Game 35.0 and more
Huge Game 30.0 34.9
Very Big Game 25.0 29.9
Big Game 20.0 24.9
Typical Non-Starter Game 14.0 19.9
Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 13.9
Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 5.0 8.9
Bad Game Even For a Non-Starter 2.0 4.9
Disaster: Nothing Much to Report and less 1.9
THE HIGH QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME
OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES FOR THE NUGGETS
Historic Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Renaldo Balkman
Historic Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Chris Andersen
Historic Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court Ruben Patterson
Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Steven Hunter
Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Smush Parker
Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Kenyon Martin
Star Level During Minutes on the Court: JR Smith
Star Level During Minutes on the Court: Nene
OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES FOR THE T-WOLVES
Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Corey Brewer
Star Level During Minutes on the Court: Al Jefferson
POWER PERFORMERS
NUGGETS STARTERS POWER PERFORMERS
NONE, because it was a preseason game and minutes were limited.
NUGGETS NON-STARTERS POWER PERFORMERS
Very Big Game: Chris Andersen
Big Game: JR Smith
Big Game: Renaldo Balkman
Big Game: Ruben Patterson
T-WOLVES STARTERS POWER PERFORMERS
NONE, because it was a preseason game and minutes were limited.
T-WOLVES NON-STARTERS POWER PERFORMERS
NONE, mostly because it was a preseason game and minutes were limited.
Note: For the rundown of the best players and the power performers, I bump up or bump down, by one category, certain players, due to adjustments for defending, wherever such adjustments are obvious.
