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Thursday, October 2, 2008

Return of Nuggets 1: Forum Comments From Middle of July, 2008

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have enough time for the detailed and extensive reports I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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MIDDLE OF JULY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

The following commentary was done in the wake of the Marcus Camby giveaway, done because the owner of the Nuggets wanted to severely cut back on payroll in general and on the luxury tax in particular. The fact that essentially nothing at all was obtained in exchange for Camby was smoking gun evidence that the Nuggets organization was packing it in and getting out the white flag for the Pepsi Center flag mast.

Whether or not the top Nuggets managers were blaming the Nuggets fiasco on Coach George Karl, they decided that it was futile to make a big effort to finally advance in the playoffs in the 2008-09 season. In short, the plug was pulled on the expensive Nuggets roster, but without either an official or a quasi secret, in fact rebuilding plan or process in place. So the Nuggets were left in complete limbo: not able to even theoretically compete with the top dog teams of the NBA anymore, but not engaged in any well planned new team building process either. In other words, the Nuggets were left in a foggy, unclear status, with apparently no established plan for moving forward as a sports team. Such a situation often leads to the team in question becoming a major losing team within a few short years, and a major losing team was what the Nuggets were just a few years ago, before the arrival of Carmelo Anthony.

With that introduction made, let's go on to the comments that I made immediately after the Camby giveaway was announced:

I honestly had no idea the front office was incompetent. First they go hog wild with expensive veterans, then they admit it was all a joke on the unsuspecting public, that they were never serious after all about going for at least a place in the Conference Final, if not more. They are literally going from one extreme to the other in their management scheme, as reflected by their finances, which is one of the worst things you can do while managing any organization, including a sports team.

If you have overspent, you want to very carefully back up, not dump everybody overboard and say the hell with everything. If you were going to dump Camby's money, at least you should have drafted a center, whereas the Nuggets drafted no one at all. What is wrong with them?

Was it this kind of thing that got the Nuggets down to about 15-67 a few years ago? I wasn't around at the time.
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Someone wrote:

A future second rounder is thrown around like dirty toliet paper.


I had to respond:

If it were me, I would have insisted on clean toilet paper for Camby.
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Camby gone + JR 18-20 mpg and very few starts + Nene sick or injured again =30-52 season, at best, a 20 win drop in 1 year. Add about 6 wins if Nene plays all year, and about 6 more wins if JR gets at least 28 mpg.

Then in 2009-2010, the way it appears right now, the Nuggets might complete a sudden, ugly, and self-destructive transformation from one extreme to another: from older and very expensive to too young and not very expensive. If so, the Nuggets are looking at a 20-30 win season in 2009-10, if Anthony is still around, worse if he is not.

Nuggets FO: you are supposed to balance these things, and to develop younger players as you play the older, expensive veterans. You are not supposed to go from one extreme to another like this, if you want to be a serious NBA franchise.

If you overspent, you need to reverse that gradually, not instantly. It's like driving a car; you don't make sudden turns and changes of speed, unless you want to be a road hazard, or road kill.

If I am wrong about the Nuggets lurching from one extreme to the other, and If the Nuggets are actually trying to stay balanced between young and old, and between expensive and cheap, then it clearly appears that they don't know what the hell they are doing.

Either way, we the fans, and the players too actually, are up the creek without a paddle.
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Agreed, and how many 2nd round 7 footers are there??

And to add even more insult to injury, Camby proved the critics wrong over the last two years by remaining mostly healthy most all of the time.

This franchise is even more LOST than ever, let's face it.
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But when you rush to start all over, you are by definition not doing it carefully. Only the poorly managed franchises have to start all over in the way you are thinking. The well managed franchises are always trying to at the same time maximize their present, and build for the future (by developing young players).

And just because you "start all over" doesn't mean you are certain to get to even just where Golden State is, assuming its true that they are stuck in the middle. By suddenly starting all over, you are risking being a major losing team for years and years. All that has to happen for that is a solid majority of your younger players not coming through. Hell, any team that starts from scratch is at risk of being a new Grizzlies type franchise, for half a decade or even more.

I say its better to fight for the top from the middle than from the bottom. I argue all the time for younger players to get more time and to be respected, but even I would not want to bet the franchise on a "starting over" group with a fairly large number of younger, not yet totally proven players.
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The smartest basketball minds knew that it was curtains for the Nuggets after the Camby giveaway, so a kind of gallows humor happened. Someone posted this:

Wow... just when I thought that the FO couldn't get any dumber... THEY DO SOMETHING LIKE THIS! Hahaha another huge joke made by the Denver Comedians. 2nd rounder my ass you stupid piece of s**t FO!


On a side note, who else thinks that STUBBORN Karl still won't play Steven Hunter?


My response:

Don't try to be funny. You know full well the Carterminator is now the center.
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Laugh out loud, just before I read your post, I read about all of the centers who went in the draft, noticing that Clippers pick, and I said to myself the same thing. It was the Clippers who drafted a Center and it was the Clippers who got Camby for nothing. It was the Nuggets who got nothing. What can you do with nothing?
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Someday in an interview Camby will have to explain why he was not offended by being traded for almost nothing. Whatever he says will most likely be a lie, since he won't want to offend the Nuggets franchise in public.
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1. With Karl and his assistants having little if any playoff basketball credibility left among close basketball watchers, the FO/Mr. Kroenke do nothing to revamp the coaching. Buying out Mr. Karl was financially out of the question.
2. The FO/Mr. Kroenke can do nothing as Najera walks, despite having one of the worst defenses in the League.
3. The FO/Mr. Kroenke decide they can't afford to draft a single player, and trade the pick away for what is likely to be a worse pick.
4. The FO/Mr. Kroenke, who refused to insist that the Nuggets have a good player at the crucial PG position, and a decent backcourt overall, by insisting that Iverson play that position instead of playing the shortest backcourt in the League, and the worst guard defending in the League, make little or no effort to change that for 2008-09. They resign Carter for a small amount of money, so that they will be able to perpetuate an inferior lineup on the cheap. (Does it get any worse in managing a basketball team than perpetuating an inferior lineup on the cheap?)
5. As if trying to one up themselves in being cheap, they trade Marcus Camby away for next to nothing. Now the entire national basketball media and the entire NBA community is whispering that the Nuggets are cheap and/or incompetent.

This is already one of the worst off seasons ever, and if JR Smith were to go to another team now, this would be a serious candidate for being the worst off season ever for any team.

What happened to Mr. Kroenke, seriously? I highly doubt he lost his mind.

Rather, I seriously think he is being hammered by the current bank crisis/credit crisis/economic recession, and he decided to make up for some of his losses by taking a carving knife to the Nuggets.
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Yes it is, if its the worst off season ever.

It may be the worst economy ever too, except for my Great Granny's Great Depression. Yes, I know the economy is still alright overall in Denver, Texas, and in a few other places, but in most areas, the economy is underwater.
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Well you are right, it all comes down to off season 2009 now and whether the Nuggets get the right young players and the right key veteran or two or three or not. If everything went right, the Nuggets could avoid the freaking 20-62 seasons at least, Then if C Anthony were to stay, they could take another shot with him and possibly Nene, JR, Linas, Taurean Green still around.

This off season is unbelievably ugly, though.
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Commentary made in July, in the wake of the Camby giveaway, continues in the next post, which will be titled "Return of Nuggets 1: Forum Comments From Late July, 2008."