Return of Nuggets 1: Forum Comments From Middle of April 2008, Part 2

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have enough time for the detailed and extensive reports I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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MIDDLE OF APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

Agreed.

There is a huge difference between DWI and DUI and we don't even know that it was DUI, let alone that it was DWI. And even DWI, at the low end of it, means you are only slightly "drunk," and does not mean that you would automatically have a car crash if you were driving at that level of intoxication.

Also, the time of this was still too early for there to have been any substantial traffic, and the drifing between lanes may have been due simply to him talking on a cell phone or putting a CD in the player or something.
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I was once dog tired, 100% sober, and out driving at about 4 am, and was pulled over for driving about 53 in a 45 zone. It was a divided highway, so I thought it was a speed limit 55 zone. When the cop saw how tired I was, he HAD to give me a breathalyzer, because when you are dog tired you appear to be inebriated, because you talk more slowly than usual for example.

And actually, there is less difference between those two states with respect to the odds that you are going to cause a car crash than most people think. But driving while dog tired is not against the law.
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The latest news is that Carmelo Anthony "failed a series of sobriety tests". So if you had to bet, it was probably DUI, but it is still not certain. You can actually fail a few "sobriety tests" if you are dog tired, because I almost or actually did fail one or two of them when I was pulled over while dog tired, but the breathalyzer cleared me.
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As of today the situation is:

1. There was a traffic stop, which is a special type of arrest but is technically not a full scale arrest due to the light penalties associated with most traffic stops. It became more of a full scale arrest when Carmelo Anthony was booked. But it was "booked on suspicion" and there are as yet no formal charges and there may never be any charges.
2. This stop was on Interstate 25 in Denver. The time was about 5:23 am, so there was little traffic and relatively little risk of a car crash on the Interstate at the time, whether it was DWI, DUI, DWD (driving while distracted), or DWE (driving while exhausted).
3. Melo's car was drifting between lanes, but that drifting did not create a risk of an accident at the time, due to the light traffic, and because there is no report that there was a near crash of any kind. The drifting could have been caused by cell phone or CD player usage, or simply due to the driver being extremely tired. It is not a crime to be driving while extremely tired. It is a crime in New York State to drive while holding and talking on a cell phone, but that is not a crime in Colorado.
4. Melo cooperated completely including consenting to a blood test. Results are not expected for about two weeks.
5. According to a major news source, Anthony "failed a series of sobriety tests." However, failing of sobriety tests can be caused by someone being extremely tired alone, or by a combination of someone being extremely tired and very slightly inebriated, but below DWI and DUI levels.
6. There was no breathalyzer, which can instantly clear someone, but which is not trusted by and may not be offerred by some jurisdictions. Someone on NT says that Colorado has the breathalyzer, and that if someone refuses the breathalyzer, they then have to have a blood test or face automatic conviction. In this case, we don't know whether the breathalyzer was offerred, but we know there was a blood test, which of course everyone would think of as reliable.
7. There is still today a huge legal difference between DUI and DWI, because DUI is considered to be only mildly dangerous, while DWI is just plain dangerous. If this turns out to be DUI, it would be something that until about 20 years ago was considered a minor offense, but is now more serious as a result of the "War on Drugs" and the "War on Crime." Even today though, DUI is a much less serious offense than is DWI.
8. Further developments to come, and questions surrounding them:

blood test results in two weeks: DWI, DUI, or Sober?
--What delay will there be, if any, between the results and any charges?
--The NBA can not suspend with just blood test results and no charges (yet) can they?
--If DUI, can the charges be bargained away?
--If charges are bargained away, could the NBA suspend for a game or two anyway? I highly doubt it.

If DUI and the charges are filed Immediately
--Does the NBA have the right to suspend before there is a conviction or can they suspend just for charges?
--Will the NBA suspend at all, even on a conviction, for the relatively minor DUI offense?
--If the NBA suspends for a DUI conviction, but not on mere charges, it will be for games next season, because there is no way a conviction will happen so quickly that the Nuggets are still in the playoffs when it happens.

If DWI and the charges are filed Immediately
--Does the NBA have the right to suspend before there is a conviction or can they suspend just for the charges?
--I am assumming a DWI conviction would generate a suspension. Anyone have any idea about how many games it would be?
--If the NBA suspends for a DWI conviction, but not on mere charges, it will be for games next season, because there is no way a conviction will happen so quickly that the Nuggets are still in the playoffs when it happens.

Anyone who knows reliable answers to any of the questions above regarding how the NBA would react to the various possiblities, please clue us in. Anyone know of any other recent DUI or DWI situations and how the League reacted?

I don't trust the NBA on something like this. I wonder why? They do have a track record of being fair and evenhanded in their Nuggets punishments, don't they?
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Damn all the Irish for originally starting the getting drunk to escape stress s@@t. I think the English learned it from them and then they spread it throughout the world with their damn empire.

Drink socially but never, ever drink for stress relief.
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No, there was apparently no breathalyzer. I had one when I was on a business trip in Missouri once and when I passed I was instantly cleared.

But in this case, either where he was pulled over, which apparently was the City of Denver, does not use the breathalyzer, or they offered it and Melo declined it, which meant he had to do the blood test or be almost automatically convicted. Some jurisdictions do not offer the breathalyzer because it is not quite as reliable as the blood test.

Anyone know whether City of Denver has a breathalyzer option for those pulled over and are suspected of DUI/DWI?
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Thanks for the info.

Let's see, last year for the Garden fight Anthony and Smitty got about 4 times as many games as the traditional penalty would have been, so as a rough estimate:

DUI: 1-2 games suspension for most, 4-8 games suspension for Melo.
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The Coach clearly seems to think everything important is decided in advance. His lame excuses and his monthly win quotas are just about like something from a comedy movie. According to Karl, the Nuggets could not end up in the top 4 of the West despite being in the top 4 in talent. Why? It was inevitable, because the great tide of history dictated that little old Denver would not be able to reach the top 4.

Who knows how many specific reasons in total have been spinning around in his head, but here are some of them we know about:

--Melo's game is not well rounded enough, and Melo's personality is not quite mature enough.
--Iverson was changed from PG to SG many years ago for mysterious but valid reasons that must have something to do with Iverson's personality, and it would be futile to try to fight the tide of history to officially recognize AI as the PG for Denver this year. So AI can play PG but it can not be admitted in public that he does so, and he can not be designated as the PG, because you can't mess with history and tradition and personality like that.
--J.R. Smith is unqualified to start or to be a full scale NBA shooting guard by virtue of a deficient personality/character.
--Yakhouba Diawara somehow proved to have a personality too weak to avoid a more or less permanent benching.
--The Nuggets as a whole have a soft or wobbly "personality". When your team has that, you are automatically doomed.

To Karl, there are massive forces, such as tradition, history, destiny, "team personalities," and personalities of individual players, that determine results, and neither players nor a coaching staff can overcome those forces, so why should he or the assistant coaches get all worked up about trying to win each and every game?

Since he decided in advance that the Nuggets were not worthy of reaching the top 4, and since there is no telling how many reasons he has piled up for that, he does not believe he is responsible for the results. Nor would he feel responsible for making lineup, rotation, and other game management mistakes, assuming it could be proven to him that he made mistakes that cost the Nuggets. He would respond, like he always does when challenged, by saying the Nuggets would have ended up in almost exactly the same final result even if those decisions were made differently.

In other words, Mr. Karl has built himself a fortress to protect himself from ever accepting even the slightest responsibility for the Nuggets not reaching their true potential, which is final 4 in the West minimum. If he is ever fired he will not accept even a small shred of responsibility. Rather, he will look at his long career and say that he had to be a worthy basketball man simply because of how long his career lasted.

The trouble for him is, his reasons are neither logically sound nor truly explanatory in the real world. I'm sorry, but personalities do not decide who among the most talented teams actually reach the very top. And I'm sorry, but nothing is determined in advance unless you say it is. If you think you can't win, then you almost certainly will not win. If you are a coach who thinks that way, and you can't keep that a secret and coach as if you don't believe that, then you have failed as a coach. End of story.

It really doesn't matter much whether the Nuggets have become slackers or not, or to what extent Karl's strange beliefs have rubbed off on them. Because first and foremost they did not get what they needed.

The Nuggets came to the table with all the raw talent needed to be truly outstanding but with no basketball system and with little real confidence they could actually get to the top. They needed roles defined rationally, they needed a coherent offensive plan, they needed a few specific plays. Individual players needed protection from arbitrary and rhythm killing benchings. A few players just needed a little playing time. They didn't get any of those things.

Most of all they needed real confidence. The Nuggets are mostly players who grew up on the wrong side of the tracks, more so than on other teams. I used to think that most NBA teams are loaded with players who grew up on the wrong side of the tracks. In the last few years I found out that this is simply not true. But it is true in the case of the Nuggets, many of them come from straight from the ghetto. You run short on real confidence your whole life when you grow up that way.

How someone thinks is a crucial part of personality. For a man who thinks personality is so important, Mr. Karl seems strangely ignorant of the power of positive thinking, or real confidence in other words. True, real confidence without the real potential to get the results is lame, but not having real confidence when you do have the real potential to get the results is both lame and idiotic.

Why is Melo out all night after the Nuggets squeak into the playoffs, only to be pulled over and suspected of DUI? Because he is so lacking in real confidence that he was worried the Nuggets would miss the playoffs, and it would be partly blamed on him, so when at least the Nuggets made the playoffs, he had to be out all night celebrating that the stress was over. The bigger the gap between where you are and where you are supposed to be, the more you irrationally over celebrate getting to that lower level.

The last 24 hours have been another wild ride on the Nuggets roller coaster, happy and sad at the same time.
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There have been three routs/near routs so far. If there is a fourth, then I believe I am correct in claiming that the average NBA owner/front office combination would relieve GK of his duties, allowing him to coach another team next year based on his marathon resume, or get him to retire, whichever he prefers.

If the Nuggets lose big again in game 4, and GK comes back for yet another year of miseries, it would prove that the Nuggets are not yet a full scale, totally serious NBA franchise.

What else can you say? He has got to go now, and there are no ifs, ands, or buts about it yet. Either the Nuggets win the next two games, GK goes, or else the whole franchise is to blame for the mess that will continue on next year.