Real Team Ratings as of November 27, 2008

As of November 27, 2008
The User Guide Follows the Ratings

1 Los Angeles Lakers 19.7
2 Cleveland Cavaliers 13.3
3 Boston Celtics 12.7
4 Orlando Magic 6.0
5 Indiana Pacers 5.9
6 Denver Nuggets 5.8
7 Houston Rockets 5.8
8 New Orleans Hornets 5.1
9 Dallas Mavericks 3.9
10 Phoenix Suns 2.5
11 Philadelphia 76ers 1.7
12 Miami Heat 1.6
13 Milwaukee Bucks 1.2
14 Portland Trail Blazers 0.7
15 Utah Jazz 0.3
16 San Antonio Spurs -0.3
17 Atlanta Hawks -0.6
18 Chicago Bulls -0.6
19 Detroit Pistons -0.7
20 Charlotte Bobcats -2.4
21 Toronto Raptors -2.5
22 Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5
23 Memphis Grizzlies -5.8
24 New York Knicks -6.5
25 Golden State Warriors -7.3
26 New Jersey Nets -8.1
27 Washington Wizards -9.9
28 Sacramento Kings -10.5
29 Los Angeles Clippers -12.0
30 Oklahoma City Thunder -13.9

More and more, the Quest for the Ring is putting nicely completed and very detailed spreadsheets on the internet so our readers can see details that we would never have time to post. Here is where you can find the spreadsheet for the November 27, 2008 Real Team Ratings:

Real Team Ratings as of November 27, 2008--Spreadsheet With Details

REAL TEAM RATINGS
USER GUIDE FOR REAL TEAM RATINGS
Last updated November 27, 2008

This is the most accurate ranking possible. This system, although still very young, has already obtained a great track record. This system extremely accurately predicted the entire course of the 2008 playoffs.

These rankings start with all-inclusive offensive and defensive efficiency statistics that are adjusted for pace. Specifically, we take points scored per 100 possessions for offensive efficiency and points given up per 100 possessions for defensive efficiency.

We then adjust for schedule difficulty by using a scaled by rank index based on the combined average winning percentage of all of the opponents that a team has played. The indices used in the schedule adjustment are calibrated to the month of the season that has been reached; lessor adjustments are made as the season goes along, because the schedules equal out more and more as the season goes along.

We then carefully overweight a little for the quality of a team's defending, which is at a premium in the playoffs. We call this the Adjustment for Defending.

Due to the strength of schedule adjustment and due to the overweighting of defending, the overall team ratings are NOT simply a report on how well the teams have done this season. This is because the primary objective of this system is to reveal how well each team is projected to do in the playoffs.

THE LATER IN THE SEASON IT IS THE MORE ROCK SOLID THE RATINGS ARE
The earlier in the season it is, the less reliable the ratings are, both because teams have not played the majority of the other teams yet, and because many teams use November and even December as a kind of extended pre-season: they use the early weeks of the season to try out various lineups, strategies, and plays to see which ones work best. As a result, Real Team Ratings after January 1 and especially after February 1 are going to be substantially more rock solid and able to tell you what is going to happen in the playoffs than are ratings coming before the end of the year.

PREDICT FOR KNOWLEDGE OR FUN BUT DO NOT GAMBLE ANY MONEY
Do not under any circumstances use these ratings to gamble with valuable money by betting on the outcome of games. The reasons this would be foolish are explained shortly.

You can predict games for fun but you are a fool if you think you can use these ratings or any other ratings to predict the outcome of games well enough to win money from betting money on outcomes. Do not bet any money on the outcome of basketball games. The remainder of this guide is for those who want to predict games for fun or for knowledge development.

The Real Team Rating differentials between teams can be used as crucial starting points for approximations of expected score difference when any two teams play. Though the ratings are a critical starting point, the outside factors below absolutely must be considered if you are seriously trying to predict the outcome of games in advance. Unfortunately, some of these factors are not only unavailable anywhere including here as of yet, they are difficult to estimate out of the blue, Therefore, to repeat, you should definitely not think that you can use this web site to make money by betting on basketball games. The injury, player slumps, and coaching differential factors, especially, because all of these are so hard to estimate, make it impossible to be truly accurate in predicting games.

OUTSIDE FACTORS THAT EFFECT GAMES
1. Home Court Advantage 4-6 points, depending on team.
2. Extra Rest Advantage 5-7 points
3. Injuries and Player Slumps 0-15 points, rarely more than 10 points. Player slumps are rare, and are defined as major slumps among the best 6 players on the team.
4. Coaching Quality Differential 0-9 points, rarely more than 7 points.
5. The "Human Nature Adjustment": Since it is human nature for basketball players to ease up a little bit if they have a big lead over the other team, you would be foolish to assume that large predicted differences (greater than 10 points) will actually play out in real life. A rough rule of thumb to use is to take only one half of all predicted margin of victory points above 10 as viable for the actual game. For example, suppose that after you have considered the ratings and all of the outside factors, you have an estimate that the Lakers will beat the Clippers by 40 points. You would be wise to take only 1/2 of the margin greater than 10, which would be one half of 40-10, or 1/2 of 30, which is 15, added to the 10, which yields an actual prediction of the Lakers beating the Clippers by 25 points.

FULL EXAMPLE ON PREDICTING
Team X has a Real Team Rating of 15 and Team Y has a Real Team Rating of -5. The starting point for predicting the outcome is that Team X will beat Team Y by 20. Now you estimate all the outside factors:

1. Team Y is home: the predicted team X margin of victory is reduced by 5, to 15.
2. Team Y is playing on back to back nights, while Team X is not: the predicted Team X margin of victory is increased by 6, to 21.
3. Neither team has any major player slumps. But Team X is badly banged up (-10 points) while Team Y has only one injury to a bench player (-1 point): the predicted Team X margin of victory decreases by 9, to 12.
4. The Coach of Team X is on point with hihs team better than the Coach of Team Y is with his team: the predicted Team X margin of victory increases by 3, to 15.
5. Human Nature Adjustment: the predicted margin of victory is reduced by one half of anything in excess of ten points. The predicted Team X margin of victory over Team Y is reduced from 15 to 12.5.

So in this example, the final result is that Team X is projected to beat Team Y by about 12.5 points.

Fast Break: The Nuggets Have Not Understood the Importance of the Draft and of Drafted Players for A Long, Long Time

The Nuggets have fewer players that they drafted still playing for them than do most other teams. They have only two: Carmelo Anthony and Nene. At the opposite extreme, the Los Angeles Lakers have about a half a dozen. Other top NBA franchises also have the great habit of drafting and developing young players, such as the Jazz, the Spurs, and the Cavaliers. We will be doing a Special Report here at the Quest for the Ring during the course of the current season: "How the Best NBA Franchises Make Good Use of the Draft and of Their Drafted Players."

Did you know there is another good inside player that the Nuggets have lost in recent years, besides Anthony McDyess, due to their overly aggressive and overly ambitious trading activities? It's none other than Leon Powe, backup power forward to Kevin Garnett. So he is now a World Champion with the Boston Celtics. He was undrafted, but was first considered and rejected by the Nuggets before he moved on to the Celtics.

In fact, amazingly, the present Nuggets ownership and management has shown almost no interest in retaining and developing players that they have drafted. And at the least since George Karl started with the Nuggets in January 2005, undrafted players who might turn out to be great reserves have been given very perfunctory tryouts if you know what I am saying. All of which to me is another huge warning signal that this franchise is becoming due for another visit to the cellar of the Northwest Division if not the cellar of the entire Western Conference. Drafting and using drafted players well alone is not going to win you a Championship, but I highly doubt that you can win one while mostly ignoring the draft and the development of drafted players.

I know, I am the ultimate Mr. Negative regarding the Nuggets these days, but as far as I am concerned, if you think you are going to continue on with George Karl as if nothing is wrong, give away Marcus Camby, and then trade away Allen Iverson while calling him a poor point guard when you never asked him to play the position, you deserve a whole heap load of negativity. You deserve more negatively than even I can dish out, in fact.

Incidentally, McDyess, who embarrassed the Nuggets recently by refusing to play for them because of how roughly he was traded away off the team in 2002, was a virtual draft pick of the Nuggets in 1995. He was technically drafted by the Clippers, but never played for them, because the Nuggets acquired McDyess immediately after the Clippers drafted him via a trade.

McDyess seems almost certain as we speek to return to the Pistons, from wence he came in the Iverson for Billups trade.

It seems that this pattern of the Nuggets seeing the draft and drafted players as unimportant goes back more than a decade. This would be another reason why the Nuggets have been unable to win a playoff series.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Happy Holidays and Please Don't Get Rained On

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. I give thanks for the many, many improvements and expansions I am in the process of implementing here at the Quest for the Ring. It's not the same old one team blog anymore! People will not believe how cool this thing is going to be once all the editing and publishing background work is done and it is firing on all cylinders. Come on Pistons, you get firing now!

May you and your family dodge all the financial high crimes and misdemeanors raining down on everyone's parade, if you know what I am saying. Heaven knows if it's raining I always get rained on, but that's another story. Happy holidays to all.

Despite the Nuggets Outstanding 2008-09 Start, the Time in the Sun Came and Went for This Franchise

Here is another short but important writing from late July, done not long before I had to suspend even short basketball writings for a couple of months. I am posting this anti-Nuggets article regardless of the fact that the Nuggets are off to a much better start in 2008-09 than almost anyone thought without Marcus Camby and now without Allen Iverson. I will of course have a whole lot to say about this in the near future; please be patient. Suffice it to say for now that the Nuggets have shone in just a few games so far right now, and during the time of the year that is sort of a purgatory between the pre-season and the true regular season, which starts about the 1st of December.

Much more later. Here is the late July short but important article:

To remain fans of this mess of a franchise, the Nuggets fans at this point have to assume that the Nuggets will hit it out of the park with their roster moves in the 12-13 months after the Camby giveaway. The Camby haters and Kroenke excusers are thinking, and practically assuming, that the Nuggets will automatically replace Camby, Iverson, and whoever else with players who are just as good or better.

I would snap out of your dream if I were you. You don’t simply replace players such as Camby and Iverson with hopes, assumptions and flexibility. And then you still have that little problem with the coaching.

Those who are glad that Camby is gone miss the point of why the owner of the Nuggets paid the luxury tax in the first place: to get a team that you can not get in the normal everyday wheeling and dealing, when you are limited to being at or very close to the salary cap.

SUMMARY
Fantasyland: The Nuggets will use their “flexibility” to end up with a team in 2009-10 or the year later at the latest just as good or better than they had before giving away Camby.
Reality: The Nuggets are not going to have a team as good as they had in 2007-08 for many, many years, probably for at least 10 years in fact.

I am afraid that for Nuggets fans, the time in the sun came and went.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

More in Defense of the Defense of Marcus Camby

From late July 2008, more forum writings that did not make it to Quest for the Ring until now.....

Two more quick but important observations:

1. I haven't forgotten about Mr. Karl being also responsible for the Nuggets raising the white flag. Had the Nuggets won a playoff series, as they could have and should have, then I very much doubt that Mr. Kroenke and company would have accepted the Clippers offer of a bag of chips for Marcus Camby. And the Nuggets one year payroll drop would probably have been under that 8-10% ruination level. When all was said and done, it took the combination of Karl's bad coaching and Kroenke's financial cut and run to sink the Nuggets powerful effort to become a real contender in the NBA. One of them without the other would not have been enough to ruin the project.

It seems very likely that the front office was caught in the middle between the two men making the big mistakes.

2. The Clippers are playing Camby at power forward, which is smart for them, and which is a reminder of how badly the Nuggets were hurt by the unavailability of Nene, a genuine post player. As I said frequently in my reports, Camby at center without a post player at PF is a potential defensive and/or a potential offensive problem. But Camby with a post playing PF is money. Camby with Nene would have been roughly the same type of combo that Kaman and Camby will be in LA.

But even without Nene, Camby was clearly neither the offensive nor the defensive liability that his critics claim he was, because the Nuggets were the fastest pace team, and Camby's occasional point guard tendencies, and his relative reluctance to get alot of finishes at the hoop were not big offensive problems for the Nuggets, as several other key players were not shy about taking it to the rim: Iverson, Anthony, Smith, Martin, and Kleiza especially. Indeed, one of the problems with the Nuggets offense was that overall they took it to the rim too much, which made them relatively easy to defend.

Defensively, the gripes about Camby are mostly putting style above substance, which is almost always a mistake to me. Generally, those claiming Camby was not truly a great defensive player are going to be those preferring the type of defender who camps out in the paint and simply blocks with his body, fouls, and intimidates his way to being a defensive force. Camby committed very, very few fouls, whereas the style that Camby's critics want requires for success that the refs assist by letting a lot of fouls go, something which does not happen every game. In other words, Camby's style works regardless of how the refs are calling the game, whereas the style his critics want works only if the refs let some fouls go uncalled.

Also, the type of defender Camby's critics want may be a little better against some centers and power forwards than is Camby, but Camby's style is far better against high scoring guards coming into the paint.

The 2007-08 Nuggets were the 10th best defense in the NBA ranked by defensive efficiency, which is number of points given up per 100 possessions. This is defense adjusted for pace. The Nuggets, to be exact, gave up 107.5 points per 100 possessions.

If you are right about MC, they will give up at least slightly fewer points in the new season, assuming that whoever replaces Camby has a more common style for a center, which is very likely. If I'm right, the Nuggets will give up more points per 100 possessions, and will be lower than the 10th best defense adjusted for pace. So we shall see when the season comes.

But we might not be able to tell for sure if the Nuggets make big changes in their overall style, in their pace, or if one or more players are a lot better or a lot worse defensively than last year.

Defensive Efficiency 2007-08
Nuggets 107.5 10th
Clippers 110.8 19th

2008-09???

I won't forget to revive this topic.

And we can also compare Kaman/Camby to ???/K-mart with the +/-, compare the front courts as a whole, and compare the Camby alone +/- to the Hunter or ? +/- alone. It's going to be interesting to see which wins out in this case: style or production as shown by statistics (substance)?

The Camby critics can not have it both ways. If they are really serious about Camby being overrated, then his replacement and KMart should be at least a little better than Kaman/Camby. And certainly the Hunter or ??? alone +/- should be better than the Camby alone +/- if the Camby critics are right.

Again, I will not forget to bring this topic back when this can be decided.

2007-08 NUGGETS CAMBY VS KMART
Camby / Najera / C Anthony .256/minute; +7.68 per 30 minutes
KMart / Najera / C Anthony Not in the top 50 3-player combos

Camby / Najera / Kleiza .345/minute; +10.35 per 30 minutes
KMart / Najera / Kleiza .123/minute; +3.69 per 30 minutes

Camby / C Anthony / Kleiza .014/minute; +3.12 per 30 minutes
KMart / C Anthony / Kleiza Not in the top 50 3-player combos

This disproves the idea, common among the Camby critics, that KMart without Camby in the game is better than Camby without KMart in the game. No, by a wide margin, Camby without KMart in the game was better.

Look, just as the TE is an accounting rule for the salary cap, and hardly means that the Nuggets get a free player to make up for the Camby giveaway, which those excusing the Camby giveaway are implying, with all their hopeful statements regarding the TE and how it can be used and how it can be traded, and this, and that, and the other thing. All the trade exception (TE) is is a relatively complicated rule for going above the salary cap. You have to want to go above the cap to use it, which right now seems to be the last thing the Nuggets want to do.

More broadly, cap space is like me waking up on a cloudy morning in a drought and hoping it's going to rain. It might rain, it might not. Just as with cap space, it might produce a good team, it might not. You don't automatically have a good team coming to you just because you have a big chunk of cap space coming up. Especially since there are 29 other teams competing for the same key players you are trying to get.

To go along with ocassional trades and off season acquisitions, you absolutely must consistently get what you need in the draft, and you must also have very good or outstanding coaching for your existing roster players, or you will never be a true contender.

You know, there are sports where style is more important than substance: figure skating, diving, gymnastics.

But I have never once seen those judges with the signs with the numbers on them on the sidelines in a bball game, raising their signs showing their rating of various scores and various stops. lol.

This is what needs to go in my signature I guess, a reminder that many of those who disagree with me are secretly wanting the style scores to come into the NBA!

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Marcus Camby's Reaction to Being Traded for Almost Nothing

The full article is here. Here are the most important excerpts:

Yes, he was personally offended by how the Denver Nuggets handled his trade. Yes, he had told the Denver media he was shocked and insulted when told of it. No misquotes there.

That, after 12 years in the league, the Nuggets disrespected his value. The question was put to him directly. Did he think they gave him away for nothing? He took a deep breath and answered: "Yes."

The part he didn't like, in addition to terms of the trade that made it look to the guy on the street as if they let him go for a Snickers bar, was how it was handled.

"Nobody called, nobody said anything," he said. "The day before I was told, I was with plenty of team people who could have given me a heads-up. I found out when my agent called me."

The Clippers, of course, consider this was a great acquisition. Camby averaged 13.1 rebounds and 3.6 blocks a game last season, along with 9.1 points on a team that had more gunners than a field full of duck hunters. Dunleavy said Camby will be the power forward alongside incumbent center, and strong rebounder, Chris Kaman.

Camby is especially adept at helping out and clogging the middle on defense, a skill born of necessity on the Nuggets, a team that features several players who have never guarded anything closely except their wallets. We won't name names, but two of them are spelled Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony.

Dunleavy laughed when Camby talked about his former teammates, how much he will miss them and how much they said they'd miss him.

"They should miss him," the coach said. "He saved their [butts] every night."

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

For the Record: Nuggets' Management was Aware that Getting So Little for Camby Was a Dumb Thing to do, Basketball-Wise

So many have excused the Nuggets franchise for getting almost nothing in return for Marcus Camby that in late July I made sure I posted as follows that the Nuggets' management itself was aware that this was a poor thing to do.

Here are excerpts from an interesting article about the Clippers. The whole article is here.

The Los Angeles Clippers introduced forward/center Marcus Camby on Monday at STAPLES Center. Acquired from the Denver Nuggets for a conditional second-round pick, Camby was still infuriated with what felt like a betrayal by his former team.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are very excited about their prospects this coming season.

"We have bigs that have mobility. We have bigs that block shots and rebound. We've got a big in Chris Kaman who can score in the post against anybody," said Coach Mike Dunleavy. "Marcus and Chris, I think they fit very well together."

In addition to the Camby acquisition, the Clippers have recently added former All-Star Baron Davis, rookie shooting guard Eric Gordon and have an offer sheet out to Golden State Warriors' forward/guard Kelenna Azubuike.

The Clippers didn't dwell long on the loss of marquee forwards Elton Brand and Corey Maggette, making quick use of their cap room to bring in two well-established veterans in Camby and Davis.

After Davis followed through on his promise to sign with the club, LA called the Nuggets to see if Camby was available.

"When you have a lot of cap space, the first thing you do is you hit teams with luxury tax situations. If you'd like some cap relief, we can talk," said Dunleavy. "They countered with another player, a first round pick, all this stuff. We told them we had no interest - just Camby."

LA moved on and were on the verge of signing an expensive restricted free agent to an offer sheet (thought to be Atlanta forward Josh Smith, although unconfirmed.)

"We took one more shot at Denver to see. We let them know we're pulling the trigger tomorrow," said Dunleavy of last week's dealings. "They came back and said they would do it. I've got a bad knee but I jumped pretty high when I heard that news."

The plan is to start Camby at power forward alongside Kaman at center. According to the coach, the starting lineup projects to include guard Cuttino Mobley, forward Al Thornton and Davis.

"I'm not here to replace Elton Brand. Elton is a terrific ballplayer," said Camby. "We're two different types of players. He does great things that I can't do. I do some things that he possibly can't do. I just want to make things work.

"We have a lot of guys that can put the ball in the basket. I'm not coming here to try and steal any shots. [b]I'm just going to do what I do: Pass the ball, play solid defense and be accountable on and off the court."

Camby fits their present needs and has a cap friendly contract that expires before the summer of 2010. The team believes they can be competitive for at least the next two seasons - but it doesn't hurt to have spending power the year LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire and host of other high level players become unrestricted free agents.

The Clipper feel Camby is the perfect fit.

"The leadership he brings - his presence on the court: the best defensive player in the league, top rebounder, top shot blocker, his playoff experience and maturity," extolled Roeser. "He's been in the playoffs eight of his 12 years. Between Baron Davis and Marcus Camby you have 110 games of playoff experience. Our goal is to get back in the playoffs and be competing and we wanted players with experience doing just that."

It's easy to remember a more spendthrift Clipper organization of the past few decades but in recent years, owner Donald Sterling has shown a willingness to invest in the team's future. To that end, the Clippers are confident they have a shot at one of the eight playoff seeds in the Western Conference.

"[Baron's] happy about being here. I'm happy about being here," said Camby. "With that mix between youth and veteran leadership I think this team can definitely go far - but with me saying that we all know we have a lot of hard work to do and that starts day one of training camp."

'Hopefully it means we're a great rebounding, shot blocking team which allows a point guard like Baron Davis to get more possessions and to be able to attack and get out in the open court - and we've got some guys who can fly," said Dunleavy. "Kaman is one of the faster big men in the league- Marcus is very fleet of foot. I think it just bodes well for or team - our chemistry, offensively, defensively I think he's just a great fit for our team."

You can see that the Nuggets, eager to cut payroll, tried to get a first rounder for Camby, but were told by the Clippers to take a hike. The Denver owner must have then ordered the Denver front office to give away Camby for basically nothing! Ouch!

For the record, it appears that the Nuggets' management was aware that getting so little for Camby was a dumb thing, basketball-wise, for the Nuggets to do.


















Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

More on Why the Nuggets Failed Basketball Economics During the 2008 Off Season

As a summa cum laude economics graduate from a school viewed as being in a group of schools that are cousins to the Ivy League Schools, I am qualified to grade the Nuggets in Economics. As of now, unless they improve what they are doing, I give them an F. This article is more or less a part 2 to the foundational article on this subject: A Basketball Economics Lesson. Incidentally, the originally intended snappy title for that article was "Nuggets Fail Economics, Which will Cost Them Dearly." Laugh out loud.

If economics bores you to death, so you are not interested in details, I can sum it up by using an analogy.

I decide I want to make money from a hot restaurant franchise, a restaurant that is so popular that almost all franchise owners make a nice profit even in a down economy, so I decide to buy a franchise license and build a new restaurant, but then 18-24 months later in a down economy I decide I went hog wild with my money and I decide to sell. If this is what I do, I am going to take an unnecessary, big, big loss. Because I will have paid big acquisition bucks for the franchise and to get the building built, but I will not have waited long enough for my particular restaurant to become popular.

That's roughly what the Nuggets did during off-season 2008. Outside of a depression, its spelled d-u-m-b, and it rhymes with rum.

Had the Nuggets not done this, there would have been by summer of 2009 if not sooner some more Artests interested in playing in Denver at a bargain.

Even more so than the most popular, successful restaurants, pro sports teams are well equipped to survive and prosper to some extent even in bad economies. For this reason, you don't see other owners destructing their teams at this time due to poor economic conditions. The better sports franchises are generally still profitable in poor economies. So the Nuggets can not be entirely excused for what they did during 2008 by referencing the bad economy.

Especially since Denver for the last 50 years has been one of the most successful local economies in North America, and is right now one of a relatively small number of areas that are still gaining some jobs from month to month! So there was little excuse for when Nuggets owner Stanley Kroenke panicked during 2009. Indeed, Mr. Kroenke should have sold the team outright rather than panic the way he did.

Anything more than a 5% cut but less than an 7.5% cut in payroll is a D or D- grade. Anything more than an 8% cut in payroll is an F. And the Nuggets are cutting payroll by more than 8% in one year.

THE TOTAL REBUILDING FROM SCRATCH EXCEPTION TO THE USUAL 8% RULE
Now some might get confused and think that what the Nuggets have been doing during 2008 is alright because they are rebuilding the team. Well, aside from the fact that they have publicly insisted that they are not at all rebuilding the team, the Nuggets do not come close to meeting all of the requirements that are needed to justify a massive and quick offloading of salary.

In order to justify a total rebuilding from scratch and thus to justify getting rid of players quickly even if little is received in return for them, most and preferably all of the following requirements need to be met:

1. You have truly reached a dead end; you can not make the playoffs despite the fact you have a capped out payroll.
2. In the previous season, you did not make the playoffs.
3. In the most recent complete season, your team was worse than the year before in at least one and preferably both among offensive and defensive efficiency (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions.)
4. Your drafting and/or your coaching is subpar, so there is no hope for improving things from those important factors.
5. You are freely electing to start completely from scratch. Even if you qualify under almost all or all of the other qualifications, starting from scratch and going for huge, big name players is not the only strategy available, and is still not the best strategy to follow even in that situation, though it may not be a bad strategy for franchises who know they can not excel with quality drafting and coaching. For one thing, it is a gambling type strategy, because you don't know for sure if you are going to get in competition with the other 29 teams at least one and preferably two superstars who will not be injured and who will not go into an early career decline. Strategies involving an element of gambling are never as good as the best strategies that involve no gambling at all, though if you are truly down and out, and you don't know how to do any optimal non-gambling strategies, a gambling strategy may be just as good as the best non-gambling strategies.
6. You are willing to accept a few certain 20-win type seasons and the possibility, if your big money buys nothing but injury and other troubles, that you will be a losing team for many, many years.
7. You are not a franchise that all the superstars are trying to avoid, and you have at least some inside information that at least one and preferably two superstar (top 30) NBA players will come on to your team when you are able to offer them a mega salary from all your salary cap room.
8. There is a large field of superstars and stars who will be available when you are ready to spend your big salary cap room.

The Nuggets failed to qualify under (1), (2), (3), and most likely (7).

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

"Marcus Camby: The Good Old Days": A Quest for the Ring Custom Movie

Marcus Camby, one of the best two players on the 2007-08 Nuggets, had the Nuggets back and made them respectable while they indulged in too much high speed street ball with the likes of JR Smith, Allen Iverson, and Carmelo Anthony. Camby kept the level of craziness within reason, and the Nuggets will be lost without him.

Part of one of the most talented starting five in history, Marcus Camby is one of the best blockers, rebounders, and all around defensive players of all time. Among many, many other awards, he notably won the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year Award.

Thanks for holding down the fort MC. In America, we all come, and then we all have to go every once in a while. One.

"Marcus Camby: The Good Old Days" Quest for the Ring Custom Movie on a Big Screen on a Web Page

Or simply watch it here:
MARCUS CAMBY: THE GOOD OLD DAYS: A Quest for the Ring Custom Movie



Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Allen Iverson Video: Every Game Like It's the Last

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Carmelo Anthony Mix to Onyx: "Slam" Rap Song

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

J.R. Smith Dunk Mix

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

A Basketball Economics Lesson

A BASKETBALL ECONOMICS LESSON IN BRIEF
No team should ever go over the luxury tax threshold unless the owner has the "financial stamina and courage" to avoid suddenly offloading salary to completely eliminate the tax in about one year flat. If there is any chance of the owner cutting and running from the luxury tax in the future, than that owner and that team needs to remain below the luxury tax threshold at all times. At the very least, that owner and that team needs to refrain from going over the luxury tax threshold by more than 5% of the threshold, about $3.5 Million dollars recently.

The Nuggets were almost $13 Million over the luxury tax threshold in 2007-08, a hefty level that only an owner who knew for sure in advance he could continue to pay the tax for at least 2-4 more years (with the tax going down each year) had any business being at.

Because if you get into a situation where the team's salary is so high that it is more than about $6 million or more over the luxury tax threshold, and the owner, for whatever reason, can't stand paying the luxury tax all of a sudden, and decides to stop paying it at all costs, then the necessary cut in the team payroll is huge, and so the cost in basketball terms can end up being the destruction or near destruction of the basketball team, when having a good team was the reason for paying the tax in the first place.

If you do in fact make a huge cut at once, you lose most or all of the side benefits of having paid the tax in the first place, such as the ability to attract quality players to your team at discounted salaries. Because when the team is carved up, quality players aren't going to be very interested in it anymore. Not to mention that your offensive and defensive schemes are now history, and you have to start almost from scratch with them.

As you can see below, in recent years, both the salary cap and the luxury tax threshold have been going up at roughly $3 million each year. This means that if you wanted to back out from paying the luxury tax, and you simply kept the same team total payroll from one year to the next, the luxury tax would go down by roughly $3 million each year. Very little damage would occur if you did it this way.

Alternatively, if you reduced the payroll slightly in a year, by say $3 million, than your luxury tax would go down by $6 million that year. So if you reduced the team payroll by about $3 million over two straight years, and the luxury tax threshold went up by $3 million each year over those two years, than you could in two years go from being almost $13 million over the luxury tax threshold, to being less then $1 million over the luxury tax threshold. This would cause some damage, but not devastation, to the basketball team. If you had a good front office, the damage could be relatively small.

Reducing total team payroll by about $3 million per year is the fastest you can reduce it without doing serious damage to the team. Ideally, you should never reduce team payroll from one year to the next at all, assuming that the NBA salary cap and the NBA luxury tax threshold have not themselves gone down, which, outside of a depression, is almost certainly not going to happen.

Why is $3 million the maximum possible reduction to avoid serious damage? Because that is about 5% of the total payroll, and represents a smart rule to follow if you feel you have gone hog wild, and you now want to stop paying the luxury tax. You can keep the damage to a relatively low level if when you cut the team payroll, you never cut it by more than about 5% per year. Any cut in excess of 5% means that you are doing serious damage to the team. Any cut in excess of 10% means that you are in all likelihood devastating the team.

This is what the Nuggets are apparently doing right now. They are cutting such a high percentage of the team payroll all at once, that they are completely self-destructing their team.

A 5% cut in payroll is actually a roughly 10% payroll cut, relative to the salary cap and the luxury tax threshold, which have been going up by about 5% in recent years. That is the maximum cut you can risk without for sure doing serious damage to the basketball team. Were you to cut the team payroll by 10%, it would really be a roughly 15% payroll cut, relative to the salary cap and the luxury tax threshold. There is virtually no way that the team will not be severely damaged with a 10% actual and 15% real, relative cut in payroll.

Keep in mind that a very well managed team would seldom have to reduce their total payroll at all, either because they were able to go about their business without ever paying any luxury tax, or because if they were paying a luxury tax they never panicked and decided to stop paying the tax all at once, and/or because they at the very least were smart enough to reduce team payroll at a careful rate, without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

The offloading of Marcus Camby's salary is a textbook example of what not to do, and is smoking gun evidence that the Nuggets franchise is not being managed correctly. Mr. Kroenke can gradually reduce his luxury tax and avoid being considered a failed owner, but he can't make a sudden, massive, huge cut in the team payroll and avoid that tag.

NBA SALARY CAP BY YEAR
2008-09 $58.68 Million
2007-08 $55.63 Million
2006-07 $53.135 Million
2005-06 $49.5 Million
2004-05 $43.9 Million
2003-04 $43.8 Million
2002-03 $40.3 Million
2001-02 $42.5 Million
2000-01 $35.5 Million
1999-2000 $34 Million
1998-99 $30 Million
1997-98 $26.9 Million
1996-97 $24.4 Million
1995-96 $23 Million
1994-95 $15.9 Million
1993-94 $15.1 Million
1992-93 $14 Million
1991-92 $12.5 Million
1990-91 $11.9 Million
1989-90 $9.8 Million
1988-89 $7.2 Million
1987-88 $6.2 Million
1986-87 $4.9 Million
1985-86 $4.2 Million
1984-85 $3.6 Million

Teams being over the cap is the norm, because it is a soft cap, and there are numerous "exceptions" that can be used for a team to legally go over the cap.

On the other hand, if a team goes way over the cap, than the luxury tax kicks in. The luxury tax rule has only been in effect as from 2002-03. The tax owed is the amount by which a team's total salary exceeds the luxury tax threshold.

HISTORY OF THE NBA LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD
NBA LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD BY YEAR
2008-09 $71.15 Million
2007-08 $67.865 Million
2006-07 $65.42 Million
2005-06 $61.7 Million
2004-05 0
2003-04 $54.6 Million
2002-03 $52.9 Million


NUGGETS SALARIES 2002-08

NUGGETS 2007-08 SALARIES
1 Allen Iverson $19,012,500
2 Kenyon Martin $13,250,000
3 Carmelo Anthony $13,041,250
4 Marcus Camby $11,250,000
5 Nene Hilario $8,840,000
6 Eduardo Najera $4,952,380
7 Steven Hunter $3,248,000
8 Chucky Atkins $3,000,000
9 J.R. Smith $2,134,067
10 Anthony Carter $1,103,225
11 Linas Kleiza $1,011,360
12 Von Wafer $770,610
13 Bobby Jones $687,456
14 Yakhouba Diawara $687,456
15 Taurean Green $427,163
16 Mike Wilks $162,281
17 Jelani McCoy $151,089
TOTAL 83,728,827

NUGGETS 2006-07 SALARIES
1 Allen Iverson $17,184,375
2 Kenyon Martin $12,068,182
3 Marcus Camby $8,800,000
4 Nene Hilario $8,000,000
5 Carmelo Anthony $4,694,041
6 Eduardo Najera $4,571,428
7 Reggie Evans $4,000,000
8 J.R. Smith $1,387,560
9 Steve Blake $1,330,000
10 Linas Kleiza $945,360
11 DerMarr Johnson $865,063
12 Jamal Sampson $771,331
13 Ivan McFarlin $412,718
14 Yakhouba Diawara $412,718
15 Jefferson Sobral $75,000
TOTAL $65,517,726


NUGGETS SALARIES 2005-06
1 Kenyon Martin $10,636,364
2 Marcus Camby $9,150,000
3 Andre Miller $8,100,000
4 Earl Watson $5,000,000
5 Eduardo Najera $4,190,476
6 Carmelo Anthony $3,713,640
7 Voshon Lenard $3,520,000
8 Nene Hilario $3,039,889
9 Earl Boykins $2,750,000
10 Greg Buckner $1,670,000
11 Julius Hodge $1,148,760
12 Bryon Russell $1,138,500
13 Linas Kleiza $879,360
14 DerMarr Johnson $835,810
15 Francisco Elson $719,373
TOTAL $56,492,172


NUGGETS SALARIES 2004-05
1 Kenyon Martin $9,454,546
2 Marcus Camby $8,500,000
3 Andre Miller $7,366,667
4 Eduardo Najera $3,809,524
5 Carmelo Anthony $3,471,360
6 Voshon Lenard $3,250,000
7 Nikoloz Tskitishvili $2,910,600
8 Earl Boykins $2,500,000
9 Nene Hilario $2,260,280
10 Rodney White $1,797,845
11 Wesley Person $1,600,000
12 Bryon Russell $1,100,000
13 Greg Buckner $870,046
14 Mark Pope $870,046
15 DerMarr Johnson $745,046
16 Francisco Elson $620,046
17 Luis Flores $385,277
18 Arthur Johnson $385,277
TOTAL $51,896,560


NUGGETS SALARIES 2003-04
1 Marcus Camby $7,250,000
2 Andre Miller $6,400,000
3 Carmelo Anthony $3,229,200
4 Jon Barry $3,000,000
5 Voshon Lenard $2,750,000
6 Nikoloz Tskitishvili $2,721,000
7 Earl Boykins $2,500,000
8 Nene Hilario $2,256,000
9 Rodney White $1,947,600
10 Michael Doleac $1,500,000
11 Ryan Bowen $1,250,000
12 Mark Pope $689,000
13 Jeff Trepagnier $639,000
14 Chris Andersen $639,000
15 Chris Marcus $367,000
16 Francisco Elson $366,931
TOTAL $37,504,731


NUGGETS SALARIES 2002-03
1 Juwan Howard $20,152,000
2 Marcus Camby $6,750,000
3 Nikoloz Tskitishvili $2,530,000
4 Nene Hilario $2,099,000
5 Shammond Williams $1,970,000
6 Rodney White $1,820,520
7 James Posey $1,723,606
8 Ryan Bowen $1,111,111
9 Mark Bryant $1,030,000
10 John Crotty *$1,030,000
11 Chris Whitney $1,000,000
12 Donnell Harvey $992,040
13 Mark Blount $763,435
14 Jeff Trepagnier *$512,435
15 Kenny Satterfield *$512,435
16 Chris Andersen $512,435
17 Predrag Savovic $349,458
18 Junior Harrington $349,458
19 Adam Harrington *$349,458
20 Devin Brown *$349,458
21 Vincent Yarbrough $349,458
TOTAL $43,502,521

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

2008-09 Toronto Raptors Real Player Ratings From the 2007-08 Regular Season

EDITORIAL NOTES FOLLOW

This was done when I was thinking seriously of continuing to cover just one team, and of switching from the Nuggets to the Raptors...

RAPTORS REAL PLAYER RATINGS-2007-08 Regular Season
The Numbers in front are the NBA ranks out of the best 330 players in the NBA

16 Chris Bosh, Tor PF 1.036
38 Jose Calderon, Tor PG 0.914
55 Jermaine O'Neal, Tor C 0.868
109 Kris Humphries, Tor C 0.782
163 Jamario Moon, Tor SF 0.705
176 Carlos Delfino, Tor SG 0.694
199 Anthony Parker, Tor SG 0.676
221 Joey Graham, Tor SF 0.655
228 Andrea Bargnani, Tor PF 0.647
314 Jason Kapono, Tor SF 0.561

Jawai and Ukic are rookies and have no ratings yet. Brezec did not play in enough games to be rated.
_________________________________________________
EDITORIAL INFORMATION
This is more forum commentary I did during July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, All commentary until just before the Camby giveaway in July 2008 was already posted in October. The remaining forum commentary not yet here is being posted now.

The posting of my original content on a forum before it is posted on this site will never happen again. Even if my time temporarily becomes limited so that I can't do full reports for a few weeks, I now do Fast Break postings on this site, and these are going to be the same thing as any forum postings I do. I will combine extremely short forum comments into a single Fast Break, which will be from now on immediately be posted here.

In turn, Full Reports will include all fast breaks, which will be reedited and substantially added to.

In these comments, and in future Fast Break writings, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in a full report here at The Quest for the Ring. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the regular reports.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

The Self Destruction of the Denver Nuggets: Written July 18, 2008

SEE EDITORIAL NOTES AT THE END IF YOU ARE A REGULAR READER

What the Nuggets owner and front office have done was malpractice on all of the players, but especially on AI, on Camby, and on the Denver fan base. At this point, everyone is arguing about what exactly their mistakes were, and which mistakes were the worst ones. As someone who always takes in and considers all facts and all arguments, my head is spinning with respect to how I would best describe how the Nuggets have now most likely screwed up their team for the foreseeable future. There is so much to say on that topic that it is difficult to figure out how to organize the discussion!

But this experience of covering the Nuggets has been good for me, because now I will be much better equipped to spot mistakes that another team might be making. The Nuggets may have succeeded at making half of or more than half of all of the possible mistakes a basketball team can make in about 4 years flat. So although I am royally angry at those who in the end made my head spin trying to keep track of all of the mistakes and trying to rank the mistakes in order of importance, I am actually very glad I did this, because I am now more or less an expert on the dark side of basketball, so to speak, lol.

So was I punked? No way. But I suspect it is time for me to move to the brighter lights of the basketball world.

George Karl, and as we now know, the Denver management as well, are men of many mistakes, but there is a common denominator to many of them: they value style over substance. They value personality over performance. They value things like practice and good citizenship over things like intensity of effort and application of basketball skills in games. They value hope and the expenditure of money itself over the hard and tricky work of managing an investment all the way to its logical conclusion.

They act as if managing a basketball franchise is like cooking up some instant rice. The Nuggets way of thinking is old school to put it nicely, hopelessly out of date to put it realistically. Their way of thinking fails in Real World 2008, as we have seen. The ultimate irony for the Nuggets management is that they live in that place that their selected Coach, George Karl, accused JR Smith of living in: Fantasyland.

Allen Iverson was fooled into believing that the Nuggets were truly capable of contending, but they never were. But he was not by a long shot the only one fooled. People everywhere looked at Denver and saw a team that had shelled out mega bucks and had a mega talented lineup as a result. Not very long ago, it didn't occur to a lot of folks that the Nuggets might not know how to manage that investment through its logical course, or that they might not use all of the resources that their investment made available to them.

Iverson, and many others besides him, could not have imagined that the Nuggets would have proved to be as lame an organization as they finally revealed themselves to be. Because lame organizations normally don't spend money like its water, so the Nuggets committed fraud on an unsuspecting public, so to speak, when they spent the huge bucks.

And there have been, to my surprise and consternation, a larger number of basketball watchers who have agreed with the Nuggets way of thinking. They look at Marcus Camby’s style and they say to themselves: “I definitely do not want to see his style at the center position, or any other position, for that matter. They look at Allen Iverson's style and say to themselves: "I definitely do not want to see his style at the PG position. I’m just going to continue to enjoy having a field day criticizing his style while he plays as the shortest 2-guard in history. Because I love criticizing players, and especially their styles, while ignoring the contexts.” Such is their twisted thinking.

They are silent on what really matters, which is whether if you add the benefits and subtract the costs of Camby at the center position, or of Iverson at the point guard position, the Nuggets are better off or not. Either they don't know how to calculate that, or they do and refuse to calculate it or consider it. For them, it is style over substance, nothing more and nothing less.

The answer to whether the Nuggets blew it by not running the Iverson/JR Smith backcourt is of course yes, which in my opinion should be obvious. But anyone wanting proof can get overwhelming proof from, for example, reviewing +/- statistics for various on court combinations. Or they can simply "watch the games" as they say, and watch Iverson doing what a point guard does, although with a style that many do not like in the least.

These people are now in effect agreeing that it would be alright for a man, suspecting his life was ruined despite his still having untried options, and so not knowing his life was ruined for certain, to drive to a funeral home, jump in a coffin, and tell the funeral director to bury him right away.

It is one thing to put style over substance. But now at this point, with the Nuggets in self--destruct mode, those who are persisting with this claim have in effect gone off the extreme deep end. Some of the folks who are so adamant about putting style over substance are now excusing the Nuggets for not even attempting to see their huge investment through to its true conclusion, and for not trying every relevant strategy that their expensive roster allowed them to try. Specifically, it is so important to them that Allen Iverson never plays PG for the Nuggets, that by saying the Nuggets should immediately cut and run, they are in effect willing to do any or all of the following:

1. Condemn the Nuggets to being a losing team for the foreseeable future, by saying the Nuggets had no business putting Iverson on the team in the first place, and didn't know what they were doing when they spent the big roster bucks. As if they are qualified to determine and judge those things...
2. Condemn the owner of the Nuggets, Stan Kroenke, to having wasted 20-200 million dollars (depending on what you want to count as part of the loss) on the 2004-08 Nuggets, without even running the experiment to see if Iverson could have played PG for the Nuggets. Kroenke is just supposed to declare his money lost and to cut and run, without seeing his investment through to its logical conclusion. In other words, he is supposed to admit he is a failure as an owner and move on. (Trouble is, even if he admits he is a failure, he is still the owner and is not moving on.)
3. Condemn the Nuggets front office as in over its head in managing an NBA franchise.
4. Condemn the fans of the Nuggets to being punked by the owner and the management of the Nuggets, who are as we speak committing a fraud on them by not admitting that they have given up on being a contender.
5. Condemn Allen Iverson himself to having been punked by the Nuggets organization. Iverson was treated more or less like a circus side show, if the truth were told in full, which it will be by yours truly in the months ahead.
6. Condemn Marcus Camby, an historical defensive player whether you like his style or not, to being, as he himself put it, disrespected. Marcus Camby was in fact disrespected by the Nuggets, pure and simple. Is it any surprise that a lame organization that does not value substance much is guilty of disrespecting him? (How many blocks and rebounds did that man make, again?)
7. Condemn Carmelo Anthony to being stuck in an NBA backwater if he never wakes up and realizes he must come down from the Rockies if he is ever going to be truly respected in the USA, as he already is outside of the USA.

That is way, way too much condemning for me. So sorry, but I condemn those who are doing the condemning. To me, anyone who thinks that style is more important than substance in basketball, and who thinks that you need not bother exhausting all of the main possibilities before declaring your investment lost and your chances for success gone, by cutting and running, is not a true, or at least not a complete basketball fan. I think those who are saying that there is nothing more for the Nuggets to do at this juncture are as wrong as wrong can be.

In summary, although it is apparently true that the Nuggets franchise is a joke, it is even more outrageous in my estimation that there are those who say that the Nuggets must simply declare themselves to be failures, declare their mistakes and failures, and cut and run from what they did over the last several years. In the opinion of the condemners, the Nuggets are so incompetent that they are not even entitled to wait until the prime time for getting a return on their investment is over. They are supposed to, or at least be excused for, immediately giving up and moving on to the losing seasons to come that they so richly deserve. In other words, this fake end of the road is good enough for the imposter basketball fans.

This raise the white flag thinking is totally wrong. People learn, they change, and they get better over time. And there are things that happen by sheer chance that change things dramatically.

Had the Nuggets not self destructed, they could have convinced a key free agent or two or three to come to play for them at a discounted salary. They could have profited from Iverson on his own deciding to score less and pass more, which he hinted he might do recently. They could have, even if by accident, developed a new younger player or two. Carmelo Anthony, JR Smith, and Allen Iverson might have gotten together and worked out a new scheme without needing any coaching to do that. Hell, Anthony Carter could have been injured, and Atkins unable to play due to age and prolonged injury recovery, making it mandatory that Iverson be the point guard by default.

Although I discovered Nuggets errors just about everywhere I looked, I never condemned their efforts, I never assumed they could never get some things right. And I sure as hell never called for them to give up early and to declare themselves to be failures. I knew that the secrets of the quest for the ring are sometimes discovered by chance, or because it was meant to be. And that what is needed in the quest for the ring often appears out of nowhere, when you least suspect it. The Boston Celtics know what I am talking about.

So the only ones I condemn are the condemners, and I blame them in part for the Nuggets' self-destruction.
________________________________________________________
EDITORIAL INFORMATION
This is more forum commentary I did during July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, All commentary until just before the Camby giveaway in July 2008 was already posted in October. The remaining forum commentary not yet here is being posted now.

The posting of my original content on a forum before it is posted on this site will never happen again. Even if my time temporarily becomes limited so that I can't do full reports for a few weeks, I now do Fast Break postings on this site, and these are going to be the same thing as any forum postings I do. I will combine extremely short forum comments into a single Fast Break, which will be from now on immediately be posted here.

In turn, Full Reports will include all fast breaks, which will be reedited and substantially added to.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

The Marcus Camby Giveaway: Forum Comments From July 2008, Part 6

EDITORIAL NOTES FOLLOW

This particular set of comments is my reaction to the Marcus Camby giveaway.
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JULY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

Well, the Nuggets are saying "screw everyone who thinks winning a playoff is so important," because Camby is apparently out the door in a payroll butchering move. The Nuggets are apparently getting only a 2nd round pick for Marcus Camby!

Thus ends the whole confusing and all too lame management of the Nuggets failed attempt to put Allen Iverson into position to win a ring.
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The Nuggets are literally making fools of themselves. As I said before, they should have drafted a center.

They are getting only a miniscule amount for Camby, as the ESPN flash has it (posted at 11:32 eastern time, just a few minutes before me, lol). I hope the Camby haters are happy, although in fairness I doubt many of them will agree with this self-destruction of a team.

The correct move was to dismantle the coaching staff and either:

1. Assuming that Nene is really going to be healthy and play, draft the best center possible. Then and only then could you do what the Nuggets are doing (getting the big payroll cut) without looking like total, complete idiots.
or
2. Trade Camby + ??? for a center if Nene is still not certain to be available full time.
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I was really, really, really mad...

Thanks for showing up at the Nuggets funeral, lol.

The Nuggets players don't deserve this either.

To me the most important positions are center and point guard. Now the Nuggets are going to have both of those completely hosed up.

What a freaking joke this is. The Denver front office is saying, "OK, we know we are a relatively small market, and for mainly that reason, it's not meant to be in anyone's life time that we win a Championship, or get close to it really, and we got carried away with the payroll and all..."

Idiots, pure and simple.
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Even writers and bloggers who wouldn't have been caught dead not so long ago saying it should be AI at 1-guard and JR at 2-guard are now saying it. But if wouldn't matter if every single fan and every single writer insisted that AI and JR should be the backcourt starters. George Karl's vote is the only vote that matters, and his style and manners manual says no way to that combo.

So I personally don't think that the Nuggets will even get the consolation prize of an extremely dynamic and successful starting backcourt, because I think it's going to be Carter at 1-guard and AI at 2-guard. So Smith can be the best young SG since time begain, but he ain't gonna start.

So the Nuggets are going to be a total joke, and they have completely self destructed at this point. It is a suicide, and once the grim reaper arrives on the scene, the party is definitely over.
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Karl is upset about any of his older veterans going; he'd have the oldest team in the League if he had his way.

My mind is still spinning around about this, so I am going to use a wider range, for now, for my prediction. I'll change my prediction later if necessary.

That said, I'm gonna say the Nuggets will win just 34-41 games if JR does not start most of the year, and 42-47 games if he does start all year. Even if JR did start for the whole year, the Nuggets probably will not make the playoffs, or its 50/50 at best.
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If I was forced to predict the exact record, I'd say it will be 37-45 if JR does not start during most or all of the season, and 44-38 if he does start most of the year.

With the kind of defense the Nuggets are going to have now (I don't even want to think about it) even starting JR Smith will not be enough for the Nuggets to ensure a playoff spot, let alone win a playoff.

If Nene doesn't play, you could be looking at a 30-33 win team.
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How do you give JR 28+ minutes, while refusing to start him?

If AI plays even just 38, which would be shockingly low, you would have two 2-guards for 66, meaning that you would, under your and Coach Karl's theory that AI is not a good PG (and under my theory too, which is that just saying he is the PG is not enough) be without an effective PG for 18 minutes out of a 48 minute game! How can you possibly expect to win close games without a true, responsible, designated PG for 18 out of 48 minutes?
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The owner of the Nuggets is apparently going from one extreme to the other in his funding of the Nuggets, from being well over the payroll cap to being under it. It may be a full crash and burn of the payroll, which automatically puts the team into rebuilding mode, whether rebuilding is intended or not.

If cutting the money itself is the objective and the plan, and the rebuilding is an accident, then this is about the worst thing any basketball franchise could possibly do: a sudden, unplanned, out of the blue rebuilding, with much of the public unaware that a rebuilding is underway, and possibly parts of the front office and coaching staffs unaware that a rebuilding is underway by default.

But how could a team possibly do a rebuilding correctly if some, most, or all of the management is not aware that this is a full rebuilding situation? They couldn't. You can't do any project correctly if you don't even know that you are involved in that project. At least Oklahoma City knows they are in rebuilding!

A rebuilding that has not been anticipated and planned is a rebuilding that has a much highly likelihood of failing than a planned rebuilding. Success of any Nuggets rebuilding is even more unlikely given that Karl is well known for being stingy toward and biased against younger players, who are obviously crucial in any rebuilding.

If my description of the situation here is even half right, then this 2008 off season is an unmitigated disaster for the Nuggets franchise and will lay them low for an unknown number of years.
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No one is going to begrudge Mr. Kroenke's right to stop paying the luxury tax, but everyone is eligible, to say the least, to criticize dumping a player of Marcus Camby's caliber.

It is ridiculous to say that the Nuggets could not have gotten more for Camby. They could have traded their 2008 pick (#20 in the draft I think) and Camby for a higher draft pick center, as any one of several dozen possible better scenarios. That way, you get a decent center prospect and substantial cap relief at the same time, without throwing the baby out with the bathwater as the Nuggets are actually doing.

Although Nene is 6-11, he is rated a PF; he doesn't have the hands and polished finishing skills to be a true center and may never have them. But nor does he have any kind of outside shot that a good PF is supposed to have.

The Nuggets never really "experimented" with AI, not only because they had one of the least organized offenses in the League, but also because they didn't deviate in the slightest from the way the 76'ers deployed Allen Iverson. In other words, the 76'ers already ran the experiment, and it failed. If you run the same experiment again, it will fail again.
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Well very simply, if you are all of a sudden running away from the luxury tax like a scared rabbit, you had no business piling up a fat luxury tax in the first place. If you are afraid of fire, stay out of the kitchen.

Is one of the main secrets behind which franchises are run well and which are not in the NBA whether there is consistency over many years relative to how much luxury tax, if any, an owner is comfortable with? Apparently so.
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There was this guy who was supporting the Nuggets view of the World and I could not resist going all out to point out why he was wrong. He said:

I don't think the Nuggets are running away from the luxury tax like a scared rabbit. I see their moves as rational given the situation. They seemed willing to pay the LT if they could be a real contender, if not champion. Given they paid the LT, acquired AI, paid big bucks to Nene to keep him, paid Camby, paid Melo, etc., they reached a logical end. I don't know that adding any player, except for a small handful, was somehow going to push them over the top.

The point being, why pay the LT and lose when you can not pay the LT and lose? (or should I say, win about the same # of games)

I responded:

The Nuggets are not allowed to conclude that they reached a logical end, for the following reasons:

1. From a what we officially know perspective, there hasn't been one word, nor one hint of a word, in public, about the Nuggets reaching an end to their big payroll roster adventure. Quite to the contrary, Nuggets management has been consistent in saying that they are still on course to being a contender. Is this a stealth rebuilding or something?
2. From a basketball strategy perspective, the Nuggets could not possibly be at a logical end unless they actually, really, fully deployed Allen Iverson at the PG position, instead of just inserting him in that slot for the playoffs, for grins only.
3. From a performance measure perspective, you can't possibly say that one of the very most talented teams in the NBA has reached a logical end and has to begin rebuilding. Would Boston, Los Angeles, or at least a dozen top NBA franchises be caught dead doing such a thing?
4. From the actual basketball results strategy, the Nuggets won 50 out of 82 games in 2007-08, one of their highest total number of wins ever. Moreover, the gap betwen their offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency in 2007-08 was substantially up from the year prior, and was one of their most positive gaps ever. You are not at the logical dead end when you have just completed your best season in many, many years.

In short, you have to wait until you are actually at the logical dead end until you take drastic action as a result of being at the logical dead end. The Nuggets are acting as if they are paranoid about finding out whether they were about to reach the logical dead end, which is ridiculous.

This is about like a man, suspecting that he is going to die soon, going to the funeral home, jumping in a casket, and telling the funeral director to bury him now! Laugh out loud!
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There will be more Nuggets post Camby comments in the in "Forum Comments From July 2008, Part 7"
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EDITORIAL INFORMATION
This is more forum commentary I did during July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, All commentary until just before the Camby giveaway in July 2008 was already posted in October. The remaining forum commentary not yet here is being posted now.

The posting of my original content on a forum before it is posted on this site will never happen again. Even if my time temporarily becomes limited so that I can't do full reports for a few weeks, I now do Fast Break postings on this site, and these are going to be the same thing as any forum postings I do. I will combine extremely short forum comments into a single Fast Break, which will be from now on immediately be posted here.

In turn, Full Reports will include all fast breaks, which will be reedited and substantially added to.

In these comments, and in future Fast Break writings, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in a full report here at The Quest for the Ring. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the regular reports.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Real Coach Ratings: As of October 2008: the Sub Ratings

Two days ago, on Sunday, November 16, 2008, I posted the first ever Real Coach Ratings. Then in the last couple of days I extracted a lot more from the underlying data by organizing the data in ways that break down the data in really revealing ways. Specifically, I have broken down the overall Real Coach Ratings into three Sub Ratings. While some coaches are near the top on all three sub ratings, others, such as George Karl, rate very high on one Sub Rating but very low on another one. For the original Real Coach Rating article, which includes an extensive User Guide, visit here.

The Quest for the Ring put the complete and final Real Coach Ratings spreadsheet on the internet! To view this spreadsheet which shows all of the underlying data, and all of the Real Coach Rating organization of that data, you can visit here.

Here we will now proceed to report the sub ratings. But befiore we actually get to the sub ratings, let's review the overall Real Coach Ratings:

REAL COACH RATINGS
As of October, 2008, before the 2008-09 season began
A User Guide Follows

1 Los Angeles Lakers Phil Jackson 5071.8
2 San Antonio Spurs Gregg Popovich 2824.0
3 Utah Jazz Jerry Sloan 1277.3
4 Houston Rockets Rick Adelman 967.6
5 Charlotte Bobcats Larry Brown 523.0
6 New York Knicks Mike D'Antoni 519.0
7 Orlando Magic Stan Van Gundy 486.6
8 Cleveland Cavaliers Mike Brown 421.8
9 Dallas Mavericks Rick Carlisle 276.0
10 New Orleans Hornets Byron Scott 217.6
11 Chicago Bulls Vinny Del Negro 200.0
12 Detroit Pistons Michael Curry 200.0
13 Miami Heat Erik Spoelstra 200.0
14 Denver Nuggets George Karl 109.8
15 Sacramento Kings Reggie Theus 106.6
16 New Jersey Nets Lawrence Frank 86.4
17 Boston Celtics Doc Rivers 74.8
18 Milwaukee Bucks Scott Skiles 0.0
19 Indiana Pacers Jim O'Brien -14.4
20 Philadelphia 76ers Maurice Cheeks -85.2
21 Memphis Grizzlies Marc Iavaroni -85.4
22 Portland Trail Blazers Nate McMillan -157.0
23 Phoenix Suns Terry Porter -180.0
24 Golden State Warriors Don Nelson -205.8
25 Toronto Raptors Sam Mitchell -237.6
26 Washington Wizards Eddie Jordan -465.0
27 Minnesota Timberwolves Randy Wittman -538.8
28 Oklahoma City Thunder P.J. Carlesimo -632.4
29 Atlanta Hawks Mike Woodson -633.6
30 Los Angeles Clippers Mike Dunleavy -686.0

REAL COACH RATINGS SUB RATINGS
COACHES RANKED BY REGULAR SEASON EXPERIENCE SUB RATING
This is the same team score (0.3 points per game with the current team) plus the score for up to 600 games (1 point a game) plus the score for between 600 and 1,000 games (0.2 points per game)

1 Utah Jazz Jerry Sloan 1157.3
2 San Antonio Spurs Gregg Popovich 947.0
3 Los Angeles Clippers Mike Dunleavy 803.0
4 Denver Nuggets George Karl 765.8
5 Los Angeles Lakers Phil Jackson 753.8
6 Golden State Warriors Don Nelson 729.2
7 Boston Celtics Doc Rivers 711.8
8 Houston Rockets Rick Adelman 704.6
9 New Orleans Hornets Byron Scott 701.6
10 Portland Trail Blazers Nate McMillan 682.0
11 Charlotte Bobcats Larry Brown 680.0
12 Washington Wizards Eddie Jordan 630.0
13 Philadelphia 76ers Maurice Cheeks 620.8
14 Milwaukee Bucks Scott Skiles 532.0
15 Oklahoma City Thunder P.J. Carlesimo 511.6
16 Dallas Mavericks Rick Carlisle 492.0
17 New Jersey Nets Lawrence Frank 478.4
18 Indiana Pacers Jim O'Brien 446.6
19 New York Knicks Mike D'Antoni 439.0
20 Toronto Raptors Sam Mitchell 426.4
21 Atlanta Hawks Mike Woodson 426.4
22 Minnesota Timberwolves Randy Wittman 325.2
23 Cleveland Cavaliers Mike Brown 319.8
24 Orlando Magic Stan Van Gundy 291.6
25 Sacramento Kings Reggie Theus 224.6
26 Memphis Grizzlies Marc Iavaroni 224.6
27 Chicago Bulls Vinny Del Negro 200.0
28 Detroit Pistons Michael Curry 200.0
29 Miami Heat Erik Spoelstra 200.0
30 Phoenix Suns Terry Porter 200.0

Jerry Sloan is the most experienced coach.

In terms of raw experience, Mr. Karl is slightly ahead of Mr. Jackson! And Mr. Karl is a little ahead of Don Nelson, despite fewer games overall, because of the relatively long term he has coached the Nuggets, versus a shorter term for Mr. Nelson coaching the Warriors.

Doc Rivers has more experience than most people think.

Notice that all rookie coaches start with an experience score of 200.

COACHES RANKED BY REGULAR SEASON SUB RATING
This is the regular season wins score minus the regular season losses score. The average score is intentionally below zero, which reflects the reality that most coaches must win more than they lose within 2-5 years or they will be bounced out of the NBA head coaching roster. However, very highly experienced coaches, coaches who have been notably successful in the playoffs at one time, and coaches who have done a lot better recently are all likely exceptions to the do well in the regular season or get fired within 2-5 years rule.

1 Los Angeles Lakers Phil Jackson 1954
2 San Antonio Spurs Gregg Popovich 1046
3 Houston Rockets Rick Adelman 479
4 Utah Jazz Jerry Sloan 426
5 New York Knicks Mike D'Antoni 131
6 Orlando Magic Stan Van Gundy 99
7 Denver Nuggets George Karl 97
8 Cleveland Cavaliers Mike Brown 18
9 Chicago Bulls Vinny Del Negro 0
10 Detroit Pistons Michael Curry 0
11 Miami Heat Erik Spoelstra 0
12 Dallas Mavericks Rick Carlisle -72
13 Sacramento Kings Reggie Theus -118
14 Charlotte Bobcats Larry Brown -154
15 Golden State Warriors Don Nelson -278
16 New Jersey Nets Lawrence Frank -284
17 Phoenix Suns Terry Porter -296
18 Memphis Grizzlies Marc Iavaroni -310
19 Indiana Pacers Jim O'Brien -338
20 Milwaukee Bucks Scott Skiles -352
21 Toronto Raptors Sam Mitchell -520
22 Philadelphia 76ers Maurice Cheeks -529
23 Boston Celtics Doc Rivers -601
24 New Orleans Hornets Byron Scott -712
25 Washington Wizards Eddie Jordan -801
26 Portland Trail Blazers Nate McMillan -815
27 Minnesota Timberwolves Randy Wittman -864
28 Oklahoma City Thunder P.J. Carlesimo -973
29 Atlanta Hawks Mike Woodson -1024
30 Los Angeles Clippers Mike Dunleavy -1510

Any positive number is respectable. Mr. Karl is 7th in terms of regular season performance: nothing to write home about really but undeniably respectable.

The rookies of course start with zero.

Mr. Dunleavy has been with the Clippers for many years, who for many years were the doormats of the West. Come on Marcus Camby, give Dunleavy some wins and make me look good for backing you up in the face of the Nene mania!

COACHES RATED BY THE MOST IMPORTANT SUB RATING OF ALL: THE NET PLAYOFFS SUB RATING
This consists of the playoffs experience score (3 points per playoff game) plus the playoffs wins score (21 points per win) plus the playoffs losses score (30 points per loss)

1 Los Angeles Lakers Phil Jackson 2364
2 San Antonio Spurs Gregg Popovich 831
3 New Orleans Hornets Byron Scott 228
4 Orlando Magic Stan Van Gundy 96
5 Cleveland Cavaliers Mike Brown 84
6 Los Angeles Clippers Mike Dunleavy 21
7 Chicago Bulls Vinny Del Negro 0
8 Detroit Pistons Michael Curry 0
9 Miami Heat Erik Spoelstra 0
10 Sacramento Kings Reggie Theus 0
11 Memphis Grizzlies Marc Iavaroni 0
12 Minnesota Timberwolves Randy Wittman 0
13 Charlotte Bobcats Larry Brown -3
14 Portland Trail Blazers Nate McMillan -24
15 Boston Celtics Doc Rivers -36
16 Atlanta Hawks Mike Woodson -36
17 New York Knicks Mike D'Antoni -51
18 Phoenix Suns Terry Porter -84
19 New Jersey Nets Lawrence Frank -108
20 Indiana Pacers Jim O'Brien -123
21 Dallas Mavericks Rick Carlisle -144
22 Toronto Raptors Sam Mitchell -144
23 Oklahoma City Thunder P.J. Carlesimo -171
24 Philadelphia 76ers Maurice Cheeks -177
25 Milwaukee Bucks Scott Skiles -180
26 Houston Rockets Rick Adelman -216
27 Washington Wizards Eddie Jordan -294
28 Utah Jazz Jerry Sloan -306
29 Golden State Warriors Don Nelson -657
30 Denver Nuggets George Karl -753

Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich are hogging the vast majority of the positive points.

Doc Rivers needs a lot more playoff wins to get his sub rating up there. If the Celtics fail to repeat this year, could it be because the Celtics this year need more coaching from Rivers and less from themselves? Have the other teams figured out the Celtics relatively simple coaching now? Are the other teams, as Rivers himself said the other day, going after the Celtics in an intense and smart way from the opening tip? If the Celtics fail to at least make it to the Championship, Rivers will be at least partly to blame.

Oh my dear Lord, Mr. Karl... You are dead last. What a shame. Yes it's true, Mr. Karl is the worst Coach in the NBA as far as playoffs are concerned!

Mr. Karl's poor playoff record (62-83) is normally the kind of record that you would associate with coaches who have poor regular season records as well, which is to say that you would associate it with coaches who were bounced out of the NBA head coaching ranks after 2-5 years or so. But Mr. Karl soldiers on, the ultimate regular season only warrior.

Notice finally that although Mr. Karl is the basket case, he is not the only one who has been hammered by the likes of Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich in the playoffs. Jerry Sloan and Rick Adelman have taken more than their share of licks from Jackson and Popovich over the years. Will this finally be the year when Adelman, Sloan, or both overcome both Jackson and Popovich? Stay tuned.

Finally, there is a supplementary sub rating called the Grand Total Experience Sub Rating. This is simply the sum of all three factors making up the regular season experience sub rating and the playoff experience factor score. In the main breakdown, the playoff experience score goes into the Net Playoffs Sub Rating, not into the Regular Season Experience Sub Rating.

1 Utah Jazz Jerry Sloan 1718.3
2 Los Angeles Lakers Phil Jackson 1584.8
3 San Antonio Spurs Gregg Popovich 1427.0
4 Charlotte Bobcats Larry Brown 1247.0
5 Golden State Warriors Don Nelson 1227.2
6 Denver Nuggets George Karl 1200.8
7 Houston Rockets Rick Adelman 1136.6
8 Los Angeles Clippers Mike Dunleavy 1016.0
9 New Orleans Hornets Byron Scott 857.6
10 Boston Celtics Doc Rivers 834.8
11 Portland Trail Blazers Nate McMillan 730.0
12 Washington Wizards Eddie Jordan 708.0
13 Dallas Mavericks Rick Carlisle 678.0
14 Philadelphia 76ers Maurice Cheeks 668.8
15 Milwaukee Bucks Scott Skiles 637.0
16 New Jersey Nets Lawrence Frank 592.4
17 New York Knicks Mike D'Antoni 592.0
18 Oklahoma City Thunder P.J. Carlesimo 547.6
19 Indiana Pacers Jim O'Brien 539.6
20 Toronto Raptors Sam Mitchell 459.4
21 Cleveland Cavaliers Mike Brown 457.8
22 Atlanta Hawks Mike Woodson 447.4
23 Orlando Magic Stan Van Gundy 405.6
24 Minnesota Timberwolves Randy Wittman 325.2
25 Sacramento Kings Reggie Theus 224.6
26 Memphis Grizzlies Marc Iavaroni 224.6
27 Phoenix Suns Terry Porter 215.0
28 Chicago Bulls Vinny Del Negro 200.0
29 Detroit Pistons Michael Curry 200.0
30 Miami Heat Erik Spoelstra 200.0

Fast Break: The Pistons Disagree with George Karl and the Nuggets Regarding Allen Iverson--By How Much We Don't Yet Know

If the Pistons were giving Iverson 100% freedom as the Nuggets did, then they would have maintained his shooting guard position. So we already know that changes are afoot. But we do not know yet what they have directed and we don't know yet to what extent they will avoid falling into what I call the "Iverson two point guard trap."

The Pistons and Iverson have stated that the plan is for "Iverson to be Iverson." Do not be fooled. That is a big media throw away line that sounds nice but that really does not mean much. In sports as in politics, what the public line is is often nothing more than a "false flag." Do you think that the Pistons brass are going to tell the public exactly how they are using Iverson and exactly what he has been told? Do you think they would reveal their exact strategy to the public and thus to the other 29 teams? For that matter, do you think Iverson would give you that? No, they are not going to reveal those details.

The only way to find out what the Pistons have told Iverson to do is to carefully track statistics, including ones never seen before, to see to what extent Iverson's game changes from the Sixers and the Nuggets. Which is of course exactly what I will be doing.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.

Fast Break: A Message to George Karl and the Nuggets: Stop Blaming Your Mistakes on Allen Iverson

George Karl and the Nuggets gave Allen Iverson 100% freedom to continue to put up as many shots as he wanted. One way we know this for sure is that his position was shooting guard for the whole time he was on the Nuggets. Another way we know for certain is that Karl in interviews said that an ultra great, "special" player such as Iverson should not be and does not need to be coached to any extent and does not have to be instructed to change much of anything. During the few times he was technically assigned to point guard, it was only because all or at least all remotely competitive point guards were unavailable, so it was only by default and by accident in other words.

Whether or not the Nuggets are secretly crying the blues about their failed Iverson pure shooting guard strategy, they are certainly not going to look weak or incompetent by even hinting any regrets in public. Rather, they are trying to fool the public by blaming the problems that occurred with their strategy using a cheap bait and switch type of ploy. They are trying to argue that the problems were Allen Iverson's fault because he was not a very good point guard!

Sorry, but it was thanks to you Nuggets, that Iverson was not given the opportunity to adjust his game for the point guard role in a situation that cried out for that strategy. It was your choice and your mistake, not his. So live with it, and stop lying to the public about Iverson being the point guard while with the Nuggets. Let me emphasize because this is historically important: the blame for the Nuggets not reaching their potential while Iverson was on their team with no doubt whatsoever lies with George Karl and the other coaches and managers of this team, not with Allen Iverson.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.