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Thursday, December 10, 2009

Real Player Ratings for the 2009 West Final, Game 3: Lakers 103 Nuggets 97

Editorial Notice: Quest for the Ring will be between now and the end of 2009 providing a complete Real Player Rating Series Report, like the one below, for each and every 2009 West Final game, for each and every 2009 East Final game, and for each game in the 2009 NBA Final Series. The Mavericks-Nuggets West Semifinal series is also being covered this way in full.

Following the posting of the Real Player Ratings Series Reports, we will post the Real Game Ratings Reports for all of these games. Following these Real Game Ratings, which were just created in the spring of 2009 and which have hardly appeared on Quest at all yet, we will pick some games to focus on for full scale text Reports. In the text reports, we will of course as appropriate make use of and link back to the completed performance measure reports.

Quest for the Ring, as of spring 2009, has realistically and strategically decided to concentrate its advanced performance measurement, reporting, and analysis capabilities on the games that matter the most each year in the NBA: the conference final games and the NBA Championship games.


USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

WEST FINAL 2009 GAME THREE
MAY 23 2009 IN DENVER, CO
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 103 DENVER NUGGETS 97
LAKERS LEAD THE SERIES 2-1

BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games.

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.206
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.799
Pau Gasol, PF 0.641
Shannon Brown, PG 0.314
Lamar Odom, PF 0.295
Derek Fisher, PG 0.290
Andrew Bynum, C 0.257
Luke Walton, SF 0.171
Sasha Vujacic, SG 0.120
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.114

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Chris Andersen, C 1.075
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.949
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.711
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.690
J.R. Smith, SG 0.582
Nene, C 0.485
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.475
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.206
Anthony Carter, PG 0.192


COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.206
Chris Andersen, DEN C 1.075
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.949
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.799
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.711
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.690
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.641
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.582
Nene, DEN C 0.485
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.475
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.314
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.295
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.290
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.257
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.206
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.192
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.171
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.120
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.114

EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less

--------------------------------------------
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games

LAKERS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, SG 49.46
Pau Gasol, PF 27.58
Trevor Ariza, SF 25.55
Lamar Odom, PF 8.85
Derek Fisher, PG 7.53
Andrew Bynum, C 5.39
Shannon Brown, PG 2.51
Luke Walton, SF 2.40
Jordan Farmar, PG 1.59
Sasha Vujacic, SG 1.44

NUGGETS BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Chauncey Billups, PG 28.43
Chris Andersen, C 25.79
Carmelo Anthony, SF 17.56
J.R. Smith, SG 15.13
Nene, C 15.03
Linas Kleiza, SF 13.29
Dahntay Jones, SG 11.73
Kenyon Martin, PF 7.20
Anthony Carter, PG 2.88


COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 49.46
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 28.43
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 27.58
Chris Andersen, DEN C 25.79
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 25.55
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 17.56
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 15.13
Nene, DEN C 15.03
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 13.29
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 11.73
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 8.85
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 7.53
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 7.20
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 5.39
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 2.88
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 2.51
Luke Walton, LAL SF 2.40
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 1.59
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 1.44

============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays

LAKERS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, SG 1.032
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.601
Pau Gasol, PF 0.341
Lamar Odom, PF 0.254
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.069
Derek Fisher, PG 0.051
Shannon Brown, PG 0.050
Sasha Vujacic, SG -0.082
Andrew Bynum, C -0.107
Luke Walton, SF -0.109

NUGGETS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.772
Chris Andersen, C 0.660
J.R. Smith, SG 0.597
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.424
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.411
Nene, C 0.361
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.273
Anthony Carter, PG 0.172
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.087


COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.032
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG 0.772
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.660
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.601
J.R. Smith, DEN SG 0.597
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.424
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.411
Nene, DEN C 0.361
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.341
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.273
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.254
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.172
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.087
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.069
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.051
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.050
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG -0.082
Andrew Bynum, LAL C -0.107
Luke Walton, LAL -0.109

-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.

LAKERS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Andrew Bynum, C 0.364
Pau Gasol, PF 0.300
Luke Walton, SF 0.281
Shannon Brown, PG 0.264
Derek Fisher, PG 0.239
Sasha Vujacic, SG 0.202
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.198
Kobe Bryant, SG 0.174
Jordan Farmar, PG 0.044
Lamar Odom, PF 0.041


NUGGETS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.539
Chris Andersen, C 0.415
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.287
Carmelo Anthony, SF 0.201
Nene, C 0.124
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.119
Anthony Carter, PG 0.020
J.R. Smith, SG -0.015
Dahntay Jones, SG -0.082


COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Linas Kleiza, DEN SF 0.539
Chris Andersen, DEN C 0.415
Andrew Bynum, LAL C 0.364
Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.300
Chauncey Billups, DEN PG 0.287
Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.281
Shannon Brown, LAL PG 0.264
Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.239
Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.202
Carmelo Anthony, DEN SF 0.201
Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.198
Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 0.174
Nene, DEN C 0.124
Kenyon Martin, DEN PF 0.119
Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.044
Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.041
Anthony Carter, DEN PG 0.020
J.R. Smith, DEN SG -0.015
Dahntay Jones, DEN SG -0.082

-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

It's all Good now that Allen Iverson is Back Home Again

Home is where the heart is, so home in Philadelphia is where you will now find Allen Iverson, who still in 2009 is the heart of basketball. Iverson is not the greatest team player in history, but Iverson haters and anyone else for that matter who thinks that basketball is a team sport only are very, very wrong. Basketball is a team and an individual sport at the same time, you silly fools. I ask the Iverson haters and basketball fools: can’t you walk and chew gum at the same time? Can’t you see that Rings are won by teams that have both high quality team play and historical superstar individual players? You need to find another sport if you disagree with this, because this is how it is and this is how it always will be while basketball is being played.

Iverson was punked by the Denver Nuggets, treated as a marketing asset and not as a weapon to try to win a Championship with. Detroit was even worse: the Pistons not only punked Iverson, but they punked all their players and all their fans for that matter. The Pistons totally threw away their 2008-09 season as they hunkered down awaiting the summer of 2010 free agency gold mine.

You never, ever throw away a season if you ever want to win a Ring, but Detroit did just that. Iverson quit Detroit late in that season, but even players who were still playing had partially quit. For example, Rasheed Wallace was only about 3/4 the player for Detroit in 2008-09 that he is now for 2010 Ring front-runner Boston. Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Aaron Afflalo, and even Richard Hamilton didn’t go all out because General Manager Joe Dumars stupidly announced long before that season started that Detroit was in rebuilding mode, that all current Pistons might stay or go in the summer of 2010 depending on who knows what, and that the bulk of the rebuilding would take place in the summer of 2010. The coach, Michael Curry, was a rookie who literally never quit rearranging his lineups and rotations the whole season long: he literally was unable to decide which lineup and which rotations were the best. Is there really all that much to play for after that kind of announcement from the General Manager and with that kind of inept Coach (who of course was fired after the season)?

One can only hope that Dumars’ team fails to become a winning team even in 2010-11, after he picks up a big star or two, which will emphasize the points that you never ever waste a season, that you never ever announce rebuilding way in advance, and that you never ever assume your rebuilding is going to work out. Dumars needs to be taught a lesson that no one will ever forget.

So Iverson quit the Pistons in March 2009, but we know as fact that he was quitting a team that had quit as a whole. So Iverson was entirely logical to quit, which isn’t the first time he has been logical. Iverson is logical all the time, but he is not strategic. He sometimes does things that are logical in a narrow sense, but are counterproductive in an overall sense. Iverson is never going to coach basketball. He thinks well and correctly, but not strategically. He misses the forest for the trees sometimes. If there ever was a great player who needed quality coaching, Iverson is that one, but he never had a quality coach. He was cheated badly in that respect; his coaches all failed to coach him correctly.

Those who see the whole forest can think strategically. Coaches are supposed to think strategically, but some fail at this, either because they don’t think strategically either, or because they just are not any good at picking out the best strategy out of many possibilities. Phil Jackson picks out one of the best strategies to get things done on the basketball court and George Karl sometimes (often?) picks out one of the not so good strategies. Jackson wins Rings and Karl doesn’t. Strategies are very important.

I checked the depth charts on December 7, 2009, the day Iverson was to play for the Philadelphia 76’ers for the first time since exactly three years ago in 2006. ESPN did not have Iverson on the 76’ers depth chart at all yet, but CBS Sportsline showed Iverson as the starting point guard. Not the starting 2-guard, but the starting point guard. The media has through the years time and again showed Iverson as a point guard, but coaches making errors (by accident or on purpose, on orders from owners or general managers) have persisted from time to time in removing his point guard designation, foisting him onto the shooting guard position, and thus making a total mess of both Iverson’s game and the team offense.

Iverson has been repeatedly cheated and badly coached by a series of mistaken coaches, who, remember, are total dictators. A player can not refuse to play a position for any reason; Iverson is not at fault for refusing to play 2-guard; all players have to and always do play whatever position they are assigned to by the dictator coaches. Whether Iverson would have insisted on continuing at point guard had he had the power to do so is an interesting question that we will never know the answer to.

THE SPECIAL REPORT
This article is just an outline of the full treatment of this subject, which is found in a partly completed Quest Special Report: “Allen Iverson, What Could Have Been”. We are re-editing the existing chapters in that Report and will be adding many more chapters. We are going to make a complete record on how Iverson’s career and how was cheated out of a real chance to win a Championship Ring. And we are going to in great detail explain just how idiotic the Iverson haters are. Because there is so much other work going on, this is going to take a year or two, three years at the most, but I guarantee you this project will eventually be completed.

HOME IS BY FAR THE BEST PLACE TO BE
So Iverson was cheered greatly in Philly on December 7, 2009 like he was for years and years before. He was starting point guard for the 76’ers just like he was at the start of his rookie year in 1996. Before Larry Brown came along and fouled things up after he decided to fight Allen Iverson rather than meet him half way.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Iverson was jerked from 1-guard to 2-guard, which eventually led to his being jerked from Philadelphia to Denver and then from Denver to Detroit. Now he is back where it all began, and where it was always supposed to be.

There was never any other position and place for Iverson that could work than point guard in Philadelphia. Iverson could have been a point guard in Denver, but Denver did not have the quality coaching to bring that about. So Iverson was and is like a rare and extremely valuable rock in the earth that is only found in one place. Any other position or place was doomed to failure.

But Iverson as point guard in Philadelphia was gold and was priceless. Had Larry Brown not wimped out during his temper tantrums over Iverson and made the idiotic decision to move Iverson to 2-guard, the 76’ers most likely would have won at least one Ring with Iverson at point guard in Philadelphia.. That was how it was supposed to be according to what basketball actually, really is: a combination of a team game and an individual game. You need both a quality team game and players who can score one on one regardless of the defending. Iverson always knew this, Larry Brown not so much, and George Karl definitely not.

While playing both guard positions at once in the 2001 playoffs, Iverson took the 76’ers to the Championship and lost to Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, point guard Derek Fisher, and Coach Phil Jackson. That the 76’ers were even in that Championship was a miracle due to Iverson and Iverson alone. Just a few years earlier, the year before Iverson was first draft pick for them, the 76’ers were the worst team in basketball, a team that could not even win 20 games. This was a team even worse than recent Memphis Grizzlies teams. Iverson moved that pathetic 76'ers team up zillions of miles; he’ll get Hall of Fame just for that unheard of achievement alone.

Basketball was stale in 2001 when Iverson had the 76’ers in the Championship. The guy who lost the election was nevertheless the President, the economic boom of the Clinton years had come to a close, and in general society was teetering on the brink of disaster. In that year, most people were deciding to not believe in things anymore: to tune out and to chill out. But there was Iverson playing basketball the way anyone with historic one on one skills should play it, wrong position and all, a short 5 feet 11 ½ inches and all, bad team and all. Iverson was in effect playing with one hand behind his back, or else he was like two players in one, I’m not quite sure which the better way to look at it is.

But he was still the best and he was still taking the 76’ers to the brink of the most improbable, no, the most impossible ring you could ever imagine. It was impossible that the 76’ers, just a few years removed from 18-64 the year before Iverson arrived could even be in the Championship, let alone win it. Yet there they were, and there was Iverson; who other than the haters will ever forget it?

Iverson saved basketball from being stale, he made a lot of money for a lot of people, Allen Iverson was basketball, and he will be basketball forever.

Now MVP, Hall of Fame, and career 76’er point guard Iverson has come home. The haters are irrelevant again; they are just a bunch of jerks who don’t deserve the time of day. Meanwhile, Larry Brown is irrelevant now too; he currently is in charge of the worst offense in the League (Charlotte Bobcats) because for one thing he doesn’t fully appreciate what point guards can do.

All is right with basketball again now that Allen Iverson is back home.

Friday, December 4, 2009

Break Time: K'naan Music and Laugh out Loud, George Karl!





















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Thursday, December 3, 2009

On a High Quality Offense that can win a Ring, and Why Chauncey Billups is Partly Wasted by the Denver Nuggets

There is no denying that Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets is one of the top point guards in pro basketball. Almost everyone knows he is much better than the starting point guard for the Los Angeles Lakers, Derek Fisher. For the Lakers, some point guard duties that ideally would be performed by a point guard are performed by superstar 2-guard Kobe Bryant instead. Unlike many guards including even Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant can often successfully in effect play both guard positions at once for long stretches of time.

But in order to get the full advantage of any top NBA player, you have to set the framework to make sure that player does what he does best as much as possible. If necessary, you have to keep reminding that player to do as much of what he does best as possible.

The Denver Nuggets have from time to time failed to do this with many key players. This Report will focus on one important Nugget: point guard Chauncey Billups.

There is an extremely strong correlation between playoff and Championship wins and assists, but especially assists by the designated point guards and, in some cases, by 2-guards who, either because they have point guard skills or because they are superstars, (like Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade) make a lot of high quality assists themselves. A high quality assist is when a player who is not likely to score on a play finds a player who is in one of his favorite situations for scoring and/or a player who is undefended, whereupon that player makes the score. An ordinary assist is any assist where the player making the assist might just as well have scored himself, or where the player who actually scored was not in a prime situation to score, but was able to score anyway.

The Quest for the Ring has developed offensive quality performance measures that get at the crucial subject of quality of offense, such as “playmaking identity”. You will see these measures in Real Game Reports, which as of this writing have been published for only a very small number of games. If you visit here regularly in the future, you will get to know “playmaking identity” and related concepts very well.

There are some coaches, with George Karl the most notable among them, who don’t accept (or maybe don’t understand) the importance of the difference between quality and ordinary assists, and who don’t subscribe to the idea that point guards are crucial to getting quality assists, to keeping the passing game going, and to occasionally running plays developed in practice where scorers get the ball in situations where it is most likely they can score. Although Karl and coaches in his mold are not against assists per se, they seemingly believe that all assists are the very same value. Moreover, Karl and coaches of his type believe that every player on the court is about equally responsible for keeping the passing game going.

Here is why the way Karl and anyone who thinks like him are wrong:

--More assists are generally better than fewer assists, but quality assists are far more valuable than ordinary assists for winning NBA playoff games.

-- The passing game will not always be where you need it to be to win playoff games unless the point guard has primary responsibility for maintaining it. To one degree or another, at some time or another, non-point guard players will eventually fall into the trap of attempting to get too many isolation scores.

--When a player other than a point guard or a superstar 2-guard makes an assist, it is not necessarily a positive thing, all things considered. For one thing, that player might have scored himself. If that player starts getting hooked on “looking for the open man” at the expense of looking to see if he can score himself, then that player’s overall effectiveness will be lower, not higher. Generally, if you are not a point guard, you look for the open man if and only if you think you are not in a good situation to score on the play. You don’t want to be often passing, regardless of how many assists you might rack up, in situations where you yourself have a good chance of making the score yourself.

--If the point guard is not primarily responsible for quality assists and keeping the passing game going, he will probably start taking unwise shots, so as to avoid becoming irrelevant in the offense. Other than superstar point guards who are great scorers, point guards should, even more so than other players, avoid impulsive “reach” type shooting. But under Karl’s approach, point guards will tend to take more reach shots than many of the other players.

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS ASSISTS PER 36 MINUTES
1997-98 5.1
1998-99 4.2
1999-00 4.6
2000-01 5.2
2001-02 6.9
2002-03 4.4
2003-04 5.8
2004-05 5.8
2005-06 8.6
2006-07 7.1
2007-08 7.6
2008-09 6.5
2009-10 6.7
CAREER: 6.3

Ok, now notice that in 2005-06, Billups made 8.6 assists per 36 minutes, which is almost 30% more assists than he is making for the Nuggets now. Billups was on the Pistons that year, and they finished 64-18 in the regular season. After beating the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in the first round, and the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-3 in the semifinals, Billups and the Pistons lost the East final series 4-2 to the Miami Heat.

The previous year, 2004-05, Billups made only 5.8 assists per 36 minutes, but the results were about the same. That year, the Pistons beat the Philadelphia 76’ers 4-1 in round one, then they beat the Indiana Pacers 4-2 in the semifinals, and then they beat the Miami Heat 4-3 in the East Final. But the Pistons lost to Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs 4-3 in the 2005 Championship.

The previous year, 2003-04, Billups made the same assist rate as in 2004-05, 5.8 per 36 minutes. That year, the Pistons beat the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in round one, then they beat the New Jersey Nets 4-3 in round two, and then they beat the Indiana Pacers 4-2 in the East Final. In the 2004 NBA Championship, the Pistons easily defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 4-1.

So looking at all of that, you might say “Got you: Billups made fewer assists per minute when he won the Championship in 2004 than he is making for the Nuggets so far this year (2010). So there is nothing wrong with what Billups is doing for the Nuggets this year.

Well, then we have to dig a little deeper, don’t we, because Quest can’t be wrong, laugh out loud.

True, Chauncey Billups is making slightly more assists this year than when he won the Championship. But the 2004 Pistons were a defensive oriented team and were, like the 2008 Celtics, relying more on defense to win their rings than they were on offense. In fact, that Pistons team was overwhelmingly relying on defense to win, more so than the 2008 Celtics, and they were hardly relying on offense at all! The offense was practically an afterthought, although it was run on rock solid principles and was not merely an offshoot of the defense and a sort of gimmick type offense as the 2008-09 Nuggets offense was.

By contrast, the Nuggets both in 2008-09 and even more so this year are relying as much on volume scoring as on defense. The bottom line is that the 2009 and 2010 Nuggets are much more dependent on the quantity and quality of their offense than were the 2003 Pistons, yet Chauncey Billups is making only slightly more assists per 36 minutes for the Nuggets than he did for the Pistons when he and the Pistons won the Ring. He needs to be making more assists than he is if the Nuggets want to contest for a Ring.

Chauncey Billups made 8.6 assists per 36 minutes in 2005-06, which is the most of any year. While it might possibly be a stretch to say that he should be making that many for the Nuggets, he should at a rock bottom minimum making 7.5 per 36 minutes. Billups is making at least one fewer assist per 36 minutes (and per game) and probably two fewer per game than he should be making if the Nuggets are serious about winning a Championship. The Nuggets can not win an NBA Championship with Chauncey Billups making only slightly more assists than he made for the defensively oriented 2003 Pistons.

DIGGING EVEN DEEPER
In 2003-04, there were only five teams out of 28 other teams who scored fewer points per game than did the Pistons; they scored only 90.4 points per game that year. Flash forward to 2008-09, and we see that the Nuggets scored 104.3 points per game. So from there you can see the problem in stark detail:

In 2003-04, Billups wins a Ring while making 5.8 assists per 36 minutes for a team that scored 90.4 points per game. In 2008-09, Billups made 6.5 assists per 36 minutes for a team that scored 104.3 points per game. So in 2003-04, Billups’ assists per time versus team points per game ratio was .064, whereas in 2008-09 it was .062, slightly less. So far in 2009-10, that ratio for Billups is .061. Relative to points being scored, Billups is doing slightly less for the Nuggets than he did for the Pistons. Despite the fact that Denver is a much more talented offensive team than were the 2003 Pistons, Billups is not making any more assists, relative to points, for the highly skilled Nuggets than he did for the much less skilled Pistons. In a word this is a waste of both Billups and of the high skill of the Nuggets finishers, players such as Nene, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and even the rookie Ty Lawson.

We’ve proved what we wanted to prove, but what the heck, let’s dig even deeper….

DIGGING DEEPER STILL: LOOKING AT ALL THE GUARDS
Now let’s have a look at all the guards on both teams:

2003-04 CHAMPION DETROIT PISTONS ASSISTS PER 36 MINS OF GUARDS
Guards who played less than 300 minutes during the entire season are not relevant and are not included

Chauncey Billups 5.8 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 446 assists.
Mike James 6.7 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 95 assists
Chucky Atkins 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 95 assists
Lindsey Hunter 4.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 85 assists
Bob Sura 4.5 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 89 assists
Richard Hamilton 4.0 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 310 assists
TOTAL 2003 PISTONS ASSISTS 1,702

2008-09 DENVER NUGGETS ASSISTS PER 36 MINS OF GUARDS
Guards who played less than 300 minutes during the entire season are not relevant and are not included

Chauncey Billups 6.5 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 491 assists
Anthony Carter 7.3 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 364 assists
JR Smith 3.6 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 227 assists
Dahntay Jones 2.0 assists per 36 minutes, a total of 78 assists
TOTAL 2009 NUGGETS ASSISTS 1,820

First, note that the 2003 Pistons had more playmaking guards than did the 2009 Nuggets, six versus four. And one of the Nuggets’ guards, Jones, made only 2.0 assists per 36 minutes. That big discrepancy is yet another fact that strongly suggests that Billups should have made even more assists than he did in 2008-09.

Since the Pistons were not relying on offense very much to win a Ring, the total number of assists was not as important as it is for any team that is relying on offense to win a Ring. Sure enough, as you will shortly see, the 2003 Pistons made substantially fewer assists than did the 2009 Nuggets.

As you continue in this section, keep in mind that quality assists are more valuable than ordinary assists.

As a percentage of all team assists made, Billups made 26.2% of the 2003 Pistons guards’ assists, and 27.0% of the 2009 Nuggets guards’ assists. But since the 2009 Nuggets had fewer guards making assists and especially fewer guards making assists at a good rate, Billups should have made a much greater percentage than 27% of the 2009 Nuggets assists. In other words, too many of the Nuggets assists were left to guards other than Billups and to non-guard players.

Again, the point is that Billups was wasted to some extent in 2008-09 and is again being wasted this year so far, especially considering how loaded up with scoring talent the Nuggets are. True, the regular season offense was good last year and is excellent so far this year despite this problem, but remember that this is not some ordinary basketball site.

This is the Quest for the Ring, where we focus on winning playoff games. And you do lose key playoff games and series if your point guard is not being used more strategically than the Nuggets are using Billups. If you want to win a Ring, among some other duties, your point guard must be primarily responsible for making quality assists, for playmaking identity, for keeping the passing game going, and for making sure that an occasional practiced play is run.

ASSISTS BY ALL GUARDS COMBINED
The number of assists made by all guards for the 2009 Nuggets was 1,160, which was 63.7% of the team total. Meanwhile, the number of assists made by all guards for the 2003 Pistons was 1,120, which was 65.8 percent of the team total. So Pistons guards made substantially more assists than did the Nuggets guards.

Do not let the apparently small difference fool you. This means that one out of every 50 assists that was made by a Pistons guard was made by a Nuggets forward or center, and this is a small but significant difference. This kind of thing can mean a different total number of assists and, more importantly, a different number of the quality assists that win you Championships.

This shows you that the 2009 Nuggets were relying more on forwards and centers to make assists than were the Championship-winning 2003 Pistons. Yet again, the Nuggets were a much higher scoring team than were the 2003 Pistons, so this should have been the other way around: the Nuggets’ guards should have made a greater percentage of all assists than the Pistons’ guards did.

We have now shown and proved in numerous ways the following conclusion. It is a bad idea to rely less on your guards and especially your point guards for assists and to instead therefore rely more on your forwards and centers for assists. George Karl and coaches who think that key responsibilities that have to be assigned to point guards or superstar 2-guards should be distributed relatively evenly throughout the team (or at least much more evenly than on many teams traditionally) are dead wrong. It will be next to impossible for any team following Karl’s approach to win a Championship.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

2009-10 Real Coach Ratings: Phil Jackson Ahead of George Karl by a Factor of About 10 to 1

The ideal time for the annual Real Coach Ratings to come out is just before the season starts, in October. We missed that schedule, but the first of December is really not that late, and it is certainly better than never.

One of the coaches in the Report, Byron Scott, was fired by the New Orleans Hornets during November, but his Rating is included. The new Hornets Coach is Jeff Bower, who has no experience as a head coach in the NBA. Bower's rating would be 200 by rule.

As always, there has been some tweaking since the last version of this Report. We slightly reduced the "penalty" for losses, which reduced the power in our built in solution to the huge differences in experience problem. There is much more about this in the User Guide.

Another change is a new factor: points awarded for the number of Championship series appearances: 12 points for each. This has the effect of increasing the playoff game experience award for a Coach for Championship games from three to approximately five.

We are showing you the entire spreadsheet so that you can see for yourself not only the ratings but also all of the raw data.

The User Guide for Real Coach Ratings is being updated to reflect the latest coach rating technology. You must consult the User Guide in order to truly undertand and to be able to make valid use of these ratings.