Game Preview: Oct.31: SuperSonics at Nuggets

NUGGETS PROBABLE STARTERS

KEY
POS. NO. PLAYER
HEIGHT WEIGHT
PPG RPG APG (Points, Rebounds, & Assists Per Game)
RECENT HIGHLIGHTS


Small Forward 15 Carmelo Anthony
6-8, 230
Career: 24.1 5.7 2.9
Finished the preseason ranking sixth in the NBA in scoring with an average of 19.0 ppg in five games.

Power Forward #4 Kenyon Martin
6-9, 240
Career: 14.8 7.4 2.2
Shot an impressive .619 (13-21) from the field during his three preseason appearances

Center #23 Marcus Camby
6-11, 235
Career: 10.9 9.3 1.7
Finished the preseason ranking first in the NBA in rebounds with an average of 15.0 rpg in three games.

Shooting Guard #5 Yakhouba Diawara
6-7, 225
Career: 4.4 1.7 0.9
Closed out the preseason with 12 points, six assists, five rebounds and two steals at Portland on 10/26.

Point Guard 3 Allen Iverson
6-0, 165
Career: 27.9 3.9 6.2
Finished the preseason tied for first in scoring (21.0) and ranking sixth in assists (6.0) in six appearances

SUPERSONICS PROBABLE STARTERS

Small Forward #22 Jeff Green
6-9, 235
Last Game: 13 points, three rebounds and one assist in 28 minutes vs. PHX.
Preseason Averages: 9.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.8 apg and 25.5 mpg

Power Forward #54 Chris Wilcox
6-10, 235
Last Game: 27 points, nine rebounds and three assists in 32 minutes vs. PHX.
Preseason Averages: 16.0 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.4 apg and 25.3 mpg.

Center #4 Nick Collison
6-10, 255
Last Game: 10 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in 24 minutes vs. PHX.
Preseason Averages: 9.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 2.0 apg and 26.2 mpg

Shooting Guard #35 Kevin Durant
6-9, 215
Last Game: NWT-Sprained Left Ankle vs. PHX
Preseason Averages: 18.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.0 apg and 29.8 mpg.

Point Guard #25 Earl Watson
6-1, 185
Last Game: 11 points, six assists and two steals in 26 minutes vs. PHX.
Preseason Averages: 9.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 6.3 apg, 2.0 spg and 28.3 mpg.

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT
OUT: Anthony Carter suffered a 3rd metacarpal fracture on his right hand and underwent successful surgery on 10/10. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks
OUT: Chucky Atkins suffered a severe right groin strain at Phoenix on 10/25 and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.

SONICS INJURY REPORT
No Injuries

ON THE AIR
Tonight’s game will be televised on ESPN with Mike Tirico calling the action and Hubie Brown providing analysis. The game will also be televised on Altitude with Chris Marlowe and Scott Hastings handling the telecast. The game will be broadcast on KKFN AM 950, with Jerry Schemmel doing the play-by-play and Jason Kosmicki hosting the studio courtside.


TONIGHT’S MATCHUP – BY THE NUMBERS*
.............PPG... OPPG.. FG% 3FG%. FT%
NUGGETS 114.6.. 107.3. .492 .335. .723
SONICS.. 103.9.. 109.6. .460 .303. .693

........... RPG. APG. SPG. BPG. TO
NUGGETS 43.3 23.1. 8.63 3.88 17.3
SONICS.. 47.3 24.1 10.13 5.00 19.4
*2007 Preseason Statistics

Carmelo Anthony Speaks to Nuggets Fans on Season Tip-Off Eve

Carmelo Anthony has a brand new blog. You can comment on it if you want. He'll probably read the first few comments.

Here's his post as the new season gets underway:

[Start Melo Post]
"60 games..you heard it right. We're aimin high this season. I feel real good about our team this season, everybody's back! I take our squad at full strength against anyone in the L. I'm going to go all out and say we might have the best team in Nuggets history. It's great to be back on the court with KMart, AI, and the rest of the guys. We definitely have the talent and the depth to go all the way. Now we have all the pieces we just gotta get it done! All I know is that everyone's healthy and hungry for that championship! If we can stay healthy there's no reason why we cant win it all..watch out!
I had a little Halloween bash at my place last night. Everyone stay cool on Halloween. After a little trick or treat, it is game time."
[End Melo Post]

I want to add: will everyone stay cool during the whole season? No more suspensions Nuggets. And no more total benchings as punishment GK. Everyone just stay cool, like Melo says. They all stayed cool at Syracuse U and look what happened.

The new Carmelo Anthony Blog: http://www.yardbarker.com/carmeloanthony

An Emergency Message to J.R. Smith

I hope somehow J.R. Smith gets this message:

J.R., do you think you are a pro basketball player or a black sheep character in a soap opera? Because you've had some "incidents", and people are saying "you know, neither I nor anyone I know would ever be involved with bizarre and damaging incidents like this". And then they are saying bad things about your personality and your mind and your character. And then they are also making bad decisions for you, like benching you for the first three games of the season. And then the fans at the Pepsi Center are going to be staring at you funny when you are sitting on the bench, which you are going to be doing way too much of. And you have to know that George Karl is licking his chops about all the bench time he is going to give your (expletive) this season.

You won't admit it, but I'm sure you are still hurting from all of that bull from last year. On December 16 2006, you were part of the top 1-2 scoring punch tandem in the NBA, and you were going in for an outstanding breakaway dunk in the heart of the biggest city in North America. You were a star at the top of the heap. And then you were attacked, cheated, and robbed by Mardy Collins, Nate Robinson, David Stern, and George Karl. You were in the right and they were all in the wrong. Every one of them went off the deep end.

But there is nowhere to go to get justice for all that went down. It will be an injustice to you for the rest of time. That's the way the society you are living in is sometimes. There is no justice for many of the attacks and mistakes that occur in it. Eventually you will learn that the only good thing you can do when stuff like this happens is to know that you were in the right, and to declare yourself to have been right and your attackers wrong, and then to move on with a fresh start. People have to do that in this society all the time. It's not logical but it's true. People in the right can be and are treated as if they are in the wrong. This is not a perfect society by any stretch. You are not living in a basketball video game.

You are making a bad situation worse by taking society's problems out on yourself. You are attacking, cheating, and robbing yourself with these crazy incidents you are having. You have given George Karl and his close associates a license to do even more damage to you and your career.

I'm pleading with you to stop. Just stop attacking yourself. Don't drive for a couple years. Don't go out to clubs unless you have Melo or your brother or your father or some type of agent or bodyguard with you. Don't take any funny pills. Don't get entangled with the funky club violence that has become common in Denver the last few years. That stuff is below your pay grade. Don't stay up to all hours and be late for the practice or the bus the next day. Ride with one of your teammates to the Center every work day. Please, I beg you. Stop making George Karl look good.

Another way to put all this, J.R., is that the respect you get is determined by your performance, but also by the respect you show yourself. Your performance has been well above average. Karl's lame brain has been unable to calculate that the good in your game outweighs the bad. The great majority of fans and analysts, including Hollinger of ESPN, know how good a player you are, but Karl is never going to listen to anyone on this subject except maybe the owner, and the owner is too busy to get involved.

I'm not asking you to change your personality like Karl does. Nobody can change their personality. I'm just pleading with you to treat yourself alot better than you have been. It's easy, but I'll tell you how in case you don't know.

Start by putting your foot down J.R.. Declare that, since you were in the right and they were in the wrong, that you are not any longer going to add to the bull that was piled on to you during the last year. Declare that you are going to be treated right and be given playing time commensurate with your abilities or you are going to demand a trade. Work with your agent on this. Better yet, get a fresh start with a new, aggressive agent. Denver is not the only town with a team, you know. I want you to stay, and most of the hardcore fans want you to stay, but Karl is definitely not your kind of coach, trust me. If the likes of Gary Payton. Kenyon Martin, and Carmelo Anthony can get trashed by this Coach, then what are the odds that you won't be attacked and maybe destroyed if you don't stand up for yourself? When K-Mart was benched, he informed everybody that he was in the right, and that is what you have to do. So demand what is due to you and if you don't get it, hand Karl your walking papers.

Play with more self-respect. Stop cheating yourself by instantly chucking up threes even when you are off balance. Look around more for the open man when you are guarded well. Don't wait until late in the game to start driving to the hoop. Stop thinking you can't straight up defend your guy, so that you have to be reaching in all the time. The way you play right now is a dead giveaway that you need more self-respect.

In summary, you have more than enough talent and performance, but you don't have enough self respect to be able to get enough respect from the fans and the coaches. So all you have to do is to show yourself alot more respect. You are not a character in a streetball video game or a damn soap opera. You are a well above average professional basketball player.

Please show yourself the respect that's due to you, J.R. Smith. In other words, show some pride. If you don't, we Nuggets fans are definitely going to lose you, and we don't want the story to end that way.

Respect,

Nuggets 1

ESPN and CBS Are Now Showing Iverson as the Starting PG for the Nuggets

ESPN and CBS are now showing A.I. as the starting PG for the Nuggets! This is great news. Now Karl can not run the too small and too slow Atkins-A.I. backcourt all day, because Atkins is out 6-8 weeks and Carter is out until mid-November. You never want to see injuries, but these start of the season injuries are a blessing in disguise for the Nuggets because they force their small guard loving Coach to change his ways.

The injuries indirectly force Karl to stop relying on just Iverson and Melo for scoring, because now he has to play A.I. at the point all day. Now we will get to see alot more of Linas Kleiza and Bobby Jones. The injuries also force the Coach to play J.R. Smith. I know Smith is very difficult to manage, but the Nuggets have got to get points and steals from somewhere other than just Melo-A.I..

I'm sick of the J.R. Smith soap opera and him sitting on the bench. J.R. deserves another full and total chance to play. If he blows it, then the Nuggets will know they have to trade him. To have him just sit on the bench and be a soap opera is not doing anyone any good. It's almost impossible to imagine that the Nuggets can reach the West final or the NBA final with J.R. sitting on the bench all year.

J.R. Smith ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation & 2007-08 Outlook

Here is the Hollinger ESPN J.R. Smith 2006-07 evaluation and 2007-08 outlook. Nuggets 1 will, of course, have a response soon.

J.R. Smith

2006-07 season: Stolen from the Hornets before the season, Smith showed both tremendous talent and tremendous immaturity in his third pro season, and those two forces still appear locked in a duel to decide which will direct the rest of his career. For the first two months he was outstanding, but seemed to lose his mojo after earning a 10-game suspension for having the temerity to let New York's Mardy Collins tackle him from behind on a layup attempt.

After that point, the trade for Allen Iverson cut heavily into his minutes, and Smith didn't seem to adjust as well to coming off the pine. He was even worse in the playoffs, drawing the ire of coach George Karl for his ill-chosen shots and dawdling defense.

But if you just take a step back and look at his season as a whole, Smith did pretty darn well. He averaged 22.1 points per 40 minutes, one of the best rates in the league, and improved his shooting percentage by focusing on taking open 3s rather than the contested 2s he was launching as a Hornet. Smith hit 39 percent from downtown, helping loosen up defenses used to sagging with impunity against Denver. He finished with the 9th-best true shooting percentage among shooting guards and ranked 20th in player efficiency rating.

Scouting report: Smith plays like he learned everything about defense from watching Carmelo Anthony. He's great in the passing lanes, but his effort comes and goes and if he did any more cherry-picking he'd be eligible for agricultural subsidies. For somebody who doesn't play much D he also fouled quite a bit, ranking 13th among shooting guards in fouls per minute -- he'll have to ease up on the reaching when he's defending good players.

Offensively, Smith is reminiscent of the Wolves' Ricky Davis, but with far more shooting range. He has one of the best strokes in the game already and should only get better with more practice and experience. He's a good foul shooter, too, and should learn how to use his body to draw fouls when he penetrates. In addition to the shooting, Smith is an explosive finisher in transition; however, his off-the-dribble game in the halfcourt needs work.

2007-08 outlook: This is a huge year for Smith. He's playing for a new contract and needs to show that he can be trusted to get through a season without having any meltdowns; the past two campaigns haven't helped him in that regard. Karl has already shown more patience with him than he has with many other young players, but he'll have to have an incident-free season to keep his rotation spot.

If he behaves, though, it's hard not be excited about his potential. Smith is playing in a system that is virtually guaranteed to generate lots of wide-open 3s for him, and if he plays with even a modicum of passion he's likely to get plenty of minutes because the Nuggets are thin in the backcourt. If you're looking for a sleeper candidate for the Sixth Man award, you could do a lot worse than this guy.

Most similar at age: Kobe Bryant

Nene is a Gamer and a Keeper

I'm going to agree with Hollinger across the board on his Nene analysis. In a word, Nene was huge last year, and allowed the Nuggets to emerge from the "you fools paid way to much for Nene" syndrome. "Nene is back" was a rallying cry in the Denver lockeroom last year.

As Hollinger states, the most amazing thing of all about Nene was that he just kept getting better and better as the season went along, until he was giving Duncan all he could handle in the series. And, it has to be noted, Nene was playing through pain in alot of games last year. The Brazilian is a gamer and a keeper.

We just need for Nene to keep the fat off and to avoid any further knee or leg problems. Is that too much to ask?

If it's not too much to ask, I'd also like to ask that K-Mart's knees hold out for the whole season and that Camby be sidelined for no more than a dozen games. Thanks in advance God.

Nene ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

Here is the Hollinger ESPN 2006-07 evaluation and 2007-08 outlook of Nene. Nuggets 1 will make a few observations within hours.

Nene

2006-07 season: The Nuggets were ridiculed for signing Nene to a six-year, $60 million deal before the season began, but got the last laugh when the Brazilian big man stormed back from knee surgery to have what his easily his best season as a pro.

He hit a career-best 57 percent from the field, and shot selection played a big role in his success. Nene took 92.8 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area, which is important because he's terrible once he gets a few feet away -- he only made 25 percent of his non-layups, which was the worst mark in captivity (If you're wondering, he just missed the 100-attempt threshold for the chart in the Fred Jones comment). But he attempted half as many shots from that range as he'd done two years earlier, forcing his shooting percentage upward.

That wasn't the only change, though. Players don't normally come back from knee surgery as improved rebounders, but Nene set a career-high in rebound rate. Perhaps that's because he appeared much bigger physically; clearly he spent some of his down time in the weight room. His numbers improved as the year went on, as he got in better shape and regained his instincts. After the All-Star break he shot 64 percent.

Scouting report: Nene is one of the quickest big men in basketball, which allows him to beat opposing big men in transition or on drives and get in position for dunks. He uses that quickness on the defensive end to annually have one of the best rates of steals among centers -- last year he was seventh -- and help his guards out in pick-and-roll situations.

Nene isn't as sharp in help situations from the weak side, and he's not much of a leaper so his blocked shot totals are ordinary. But he's really improved as a post defender, giving Tim Duncan fits during the first-round playoff series with his size and a newfound physicality.

Offensively he still needs to refine his post game and develop a go-to move; right now he really struggles if he has to shoot more than a few feet from the basket. His jumper is mediocre at best and could also use some work.

2007-08 outlook: Although he's been around a while, Nene is only 25 and should just be entering his peak years. He may not be able to match last season's sizzling shooting percentage, but his other numbers should continue to gently improve, and the overall effect should be a season of similar quality to last year's.

However, there's also a chance he'll exceed that by a substantial margin -- usually a player's second year back from knee surgery is far better than his first, and Nene's numbers after the break last year tend to support that. If the knee effect outweighs the shooting percentage effect, the Anthony-Nene-Camby frontcourt could be one of the two or three best in basketball.

Most similar at age: Brian Williams

Chucky Atkins: The Jury is Out

This is the Nuggets 1 response to the ESPN Chucky Atkins 2006-07 evaluation and 2007-08 outlook.

The more I think about it, the more worried I get about an Atkins-Iverson backcourt. Not only is it too small but, if Atkins is a usually slow and Iverson is a sometimes gambling and always small defender, you have an even worse guard defense than last year with Blake-Iverson or even Smith-Iverson. I see the Atkins-Iverson pairing as another Big Whopper rotation mistake coming down the tracks. Especially since Karl will probably compound the problem by (a) maximizing the Atkins-Iverson combo playing time and (b) using (a) to avoid the extra coaching and practice work needed to play A.I. at the point and bring in better defenders at the 2.

Then again, since Hollinger was so wrong about Melo and Iverson, maybe he will be wrong about Atkins; maybe Atkins will do about as well this year as last. Memphis may have been desperate for his services, but the Nuggets, given enough guard injuries and defensive failures, are going to be just about as desperate. Hopefully, Atkins will attempt to rescue the Nuggets just as he did the Grizzlies.

Chucky Atkins ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Chucky Atkins 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for the Nuggets 1 response to appear next.

Chucky Atkins

2006-07 season: A few years ago, I came up with something called the "fluke rule" to describe players having a season that was way over their heads who were destined to come back to Earth. I hardly could think of a better example of this rule in action than Atkins in Memphis last season.

The three characteristics of a fluke rule year are (1) a player aged 28 or older, (2) having a player efficiency rating of at least 14, and (3) having his PER increase by 3.00 or more from the previous season. These players, as a group, see their PER decrease the next season by almost exactly 3.00, with the correction being less sharp for 28-year-olds than their older brethren.

In 2005-06, for example, three players qualified for the fluke rule - Mike James, Chauncey Billups and Alonzo Mourning. All three saw their PERs decline sharply, especially James.

Well, Atkins was this year's Mike James. Stuck on a dead-end team and playing for a new contract -- much as James was a year earlier -- Atkins blew away his previous career bests in several categories despite being 32 years old. His PER of 17.45 was more than four points better than he'd done in any other NBA season; his shooting percentage was his best in six years; and his scoring rate of 19.1 points per 40 minutes shattered his previous best of 16.8, which was set half a decade earlier.

And as a result, he's one of the main standouts of this year's fluke rule team (see chart). Seven players qualified, and based on history we should expect at least six of those seven to see performance declines this season. The two 28-year-olds, Devin Brown and Jamaal Tinsley, should expect to have the least steep declines (especially Brown, who only made the birthday cutoff by 48 hours); Tim Duncan's decline also should be less steep because he had achieved that level of performance two years earlier -- the "fluke", in his case, might be the off year in 2006-07.

But the others should see their PERs decline by three or more points in 2007-08. Unlike in past years, this seems to have been priced into the market. New Jersey wouldn't commit to Moore and ultimately Sacramento signed him (though at a somewhat extravagant price); Patterson and Brown got little interest on the free-agent market; and Armstrong may be replaced despite his resurgence last year.

That had an impact upon Atkins, too -- his stellar play only got him a two-year deal for less than the midlevel exception. Perhaps that's because he toiled in such a backwater all season -- as did everyone on this list besides Duncan -- but it's still refreshing to see.

Scouting report: Because of his size, Atkins tends to struggle at the defensive end, especially when matched up against bigger guards. Although he can make up for some of his (literal) shortcomings with veteran savvy and still-decent quickness, that weakness could be a bigger liability with the Nuggets because he'll be paired with the 6-0 Allen Iverson. He's also a poor rebounder who had the fifth-worst rebound rate in basketball last year.

However, he's a deadly shooter (37.0 percent on 3s for his career) who ranked fourth among point guards in true shooting percentage, and he also protects the ball -- he had the eighth-best turnover ratio at the position. The latter was no fluke either; he's consistently among the leaders in that category.

And he's not just a jump shooter either -- Atkins showed enough speed to get to the rim. In fact, he did that more than ever last season. In the previous two years, just under 30 percent of Atkins' shots came near the basket; last season it was 41.1 percent.

2007-08 outlook: Atkins signed a two-year, $6.6 million deal with Denver in the offseason and will likely be the team's starting point guard. The Nuggets were in desperate need of shooting, and he provides an inexpensive long-range bomber to make opponents pay for doubling Carmelo Anthony and Iverson. It also saves them millions in comparison to holdover Steve Blake, who was looking for more money and ended up signing with Portland, because of the luxury tax implications.

Although Atkins is unlikely to repeat his effort in Memphis a year ago, the Nuggets will be happy if he can replicate his performance of two years earlier as a Laker. That season he took advantage of all the attention on Kobe Bryant to hit 38.7 percent on 3-pointers and average 13.6 points per game; if he does that here the Nuggets can knock a big item off their checklist.

Most similar at age: Dana Barros

Kenyon Martin ESPN Evaluation & 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Kenyon Martin 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. See the October 17 post titled "Marcus Camby ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook" for our take on the prospects for the Nuggets front court. There really is little to say about K-Mart at this point. Everybody is waiting to see whether one of the most extensive rehabs in the history of sports, from microfracture surgery on both knees, will result in a successful return for him or not. No one knows in advance, so you can't predict anything right now.

Hollinger at ESPN says...

Kenyon Martin

2006-07 season: Martin played only two games before checking out to have microfracture surgery on his left knee, which makes him the first known player to have the procedure done on both legs.

Scouting report: Premicrofracture, Martin was one of the league's most explosive forwards around the basket. That and a good dollop of toughness helped make up for what he lacked in stature and shooting ability. It remains to be seen how much of that leaping ability he still has, but he's expected to be on the opening day roster.

2007-08 outlook: Martin will be in the rotation in the early part of the year at the very least, as the Nuggets try to figure out how much he has left after the surgery and what type of role he can fill. Although the odds of him starting again are remote, he has a good chance to carve out a niche on the second unit if his legs don't betray him.

Marcus Camby, the Denver Front Court, and the Surprise

This is the Nuggets 1 response to the Hollinger ESPN evaluation and prediction for Marcus Camby.

I don't really have a substantial complaint to make on this one, it all seems on point.

Especially on point is the point that Camby needs to be combined with a physical big man to produce an effective inside defense. The expensive Brazilian, Nene, is supposed to fill that role, and there is bad and good news on Nene heading into the new season. The bad news is that he's been out for most of camp with a calf strain, and that he has been overweight coming into the season, just like last year. But last year he was coming off knee surgery, and his knee was all too frequently still hurting. The good news is that, this year, his knee has had one more year to be rehabbed. The other good news is to recall that, when he got into his groove last season, he was sometimes too much for even the likes of Tim Duncan to handle. "Nene is back" became a lockerroom rallying cry for the Nuggets last year. And if his knees and calves cooperate, and he sheds some fat pounds, we can expect him to be able to be Camby's needed assistant up front. On Nene, the good news is bigger than the bad as of now.

And all that assumes that Kenyon Martin gets little playing time on his rehabbed knees. To the extent K-Mart gets the burn, Nene keeps the pounds off, and Camby dodges the injury bullets, the Nuggets will have the big 4 front court they have been dreaming of and working hard on since the 44-120 record of 2001-03. As Hollinger implies, a fully intact and working Denver front court would be good enough to present a serious obstacle in the way of any of the Texas teams, the Suns, or the Jazz from easily knocking the Nuggets out this season.

The thing I most like about Camby is that he is a calm, serious, thinking player who is never going to allow another player, team, offense, or defense to get under his skin and cause him to lose concentration. He is unflappable. The intensity and control of his mind and body he uses for his shot blocking, rebounding, and defense in general make him sort of a non-Asian with martial arts skills applied to basketball. I, for one, vote for a Rockets-Nuggets West final this year; Yao versus Camby alone would be priceless, to say nothing of the other matchups.

Could what I am seeing in Camby be the mental toughness that Coach Karl claims the Nuggets in general lack? I'm not sure, because that term is a little too vague for me to be sure what it means, and the Coach has certainly not explained himself enough. But I will continue in my never ending quest to figure out what Coach means whenever he starts using philosophy words.

Camby came under alot of fierce criticism for taking too many midrange and longer jump shots from hard core Nuggets fans last season but, as Hollinger reports, his shooting improved from the prior season and, at .473, wasn't bad enough to demand that he be traded. If he just banged for layups all the time like his detractors want, he would be injured and out of action in no time. Of course, that's what his detractors actually, secretly want.

As of the beginning of the season, I see no reason not to be content, for now, with the Melo + Camby + Nene combo for the front court cake, and whatever we can get from K-Mart for the icing on the cake.

Oh, and the Nuggets have a front court surprise for the West. It isn't going to be a surprise for very long, so I'm not harming anything by revealing what that surprise is. The name of the surprise is Bobby Jones.

Marcus Camby ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Marcus Camby 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for a Nuggets 1 response, probably within 24 hours.

2006-07 season: Camby showed the first signs of aging last year: He forgot to get injured. The big man shocked the masses by playing 70 games for only the second time in his career, setting a career high in minutes and used his shot-blocking expertise to win the league's Defensive Player of the Year award.

While that honor may have been a bit of an overreaction, he was certainly impressive. Camby saved the bacon of Denver's guards with amazing frequency, racing in from the weak side to record the second-best rate of blocked shots among centers. He also controlled the glass, ranking sixth among centers in rebound rate.

Camby was at his best when he could guard a nonscorer and roam. In a late season game against Utah he was allegedly guarding the Jazz's Ronnie Brewer, but left him alone on the perimeter to hang out in the paint and go after blocks and ended up swatting five in the first quarter. That tendency gets him in trouble when he guards better players, though.

Offensively, Camby stopped hoisting so many 17-footers from the top of the key, apparently realizing the idea was for him to dump the ball into the post from that spot. His assist ratio nearly doubled from the previous season and ranked third among all centers, while the portion of his shots that were long 2s dropped from 45.8 percent to 34.1 percent. In a related story, his shooting percentage and true shooting percentage both went up.

Scouting report: Despite myriad injuries, the rail-thin Camby is as quick and active at 33 as he was when he entered the league. Though he doesn't have the muscle to bang with bigger centers, he is a force on the boards and an incredible layup eraser from the weak side. The shift to smaller, quicker lineups has helped him immensely, as does the pairing with a more physical big man in Nene who can handle strength matchups.

Camby is an excellent ball handler for his size and will occasionally lead the break or drive against a slower big man from out high. More often he gets his points in transition or on feeds from his guards. He frequently posts high and likes to shoot from the free-throw area, where he has a long wind-up on his behind-the-head shot and iffy results. A bad foul shooter as a younger player, he's improved quite a bit and has made better than 70 percent each of the past four seasons.

2007-08 outlook: The question with Camby is never how well he'll play, but how often. Last year the Nuggets got lucky when he stayed in the lineup most of the year, but Camby misses multiple games every year with all types of ailments and this season should be no exception.

When he's on the court he should be just as productive as he's been the past few years, but that might be a more rare phenomenon than it was last year. Nuggets fans should expect 55-60 games and be happy if they get more, but as long as Camby is on the court come May, he could take the Nuggets on a deep playoff run.

Most similar at age: Elden Campbell

Stop Blaming Allen Iverson For the Nugget's 4-1 Loss to the Spurs

This is the Nuggets 1 response to the Hollinger ESPN evaluation and prediction for Allen Iverson.

Hollinger seems to see a tortured soul everywhere. Iverson is many things, but a tortured soul he is not. He is consistent in this views and comfortable in his skin. No Mr. ESPN, there isn't going to be any melodramatic conflict played out in Iverson's mind about whether he should continue to play just like he did in Philly. Philly is history. For those who would listen, he has stated in several post trade interviews that his overwhelming goal is to win a Championship, and he is willing to make any and all adjustments in his game necessary to do so. And he proved last season that he actually can and will make those adjustments. Of course, what those adjustments are going to be are not all or even mainly going to be decided by Iverson, but will be decided by the coaching staff of the Nuggets. And that is where the problem lies.

The reason Iverson ramped it up in the playoffs is that he was given a total green light to do so by George Karl, who wanted to avoid the traditional smothering of the Nuggets by the endless double and occasional triple teaming of Melo. Karl considers Iverson to be the ultimate floor general, even though the Coach has been like a mule with respect to the obvious strategy of playing Iverson at the point and avoiding the defensive liability of a too small and/or a defensively challenged backcourt when Iverson is at the 2. Karl did not produce backups ready to contribute in the playoffs. In fact, he all but butchered the potential of the second stringers. So with no faith in the backups, and having told Melo to worry more about defense and rebounding, he only had A.I. left to provide the winning scoring margins. That strategy was an utter failure.

As with too many of the Coach's strategies, it was too simplistic a strategy, as Popovich and the Spurs were more than smart enough to shift their main defensive harassment efforts over to Iverson. They knew that Melo did not have the complete green light offensively that Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant and A.I. had, and they adjusted accordingly. That's just what you would expect from one of the best coaches in the NBA, Greg Popovich, a man who deserves Championships if there ever was one.

With respect to threes, I will agree that Iverson took a few too many threes. It was mostly because the Nuggets were starved for three-point shooting and, later in games, because he became too tired for a lot of charges to the hoop.

Hollinger at ESPN seems amazed by the large drop in Iverson's player efficiency rating, and implies that all of a sudden Iverson may be too old to be the star player that he has been. What is there to be amazed about? Iverson is playing with Carmelo Anthony for god's sake. And for those who would listen, he has stated exactly what he is about these days, and it isn't about maximizing his player efficiency rating. He's about working with Melo and the more dubious components of the Nugget's organization in the quest for the ring, and making any adjustments that are obvious, and those that he is specifically called upon to make by the coaches and, perhaps, by Melo.

And while it is obvious that Iverson is no longer a spring chicken, it's over the top to fear that he is no longer capable of the lightning cross cuts and charges through holes he is famous for. If he is now 90% or 95% as fast as he was 10 years ago, that's still plenty fast enough for the job at hand. You just have to avoid the trap that Karl fell into, which is expecting that he can play 45 minutes a game and be dribbling the ball on almost every damn play. As long as you don't wear him out, A.I. remains one of the top 3 or 4 backcourt weapons in the NBA.

Karl wore him out, plain and simple.

Allen Iverson ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Allen Iverson 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for a Nuggets 1 response, probably within 24 hours.

ALLEN IVERSON ESPN EVALUATION & OUTLOOK

2006-07 season: Iverson showed unusual restraint immediately after joining the Nuggets. The Answer averaged a career-low 18.9 field-goal attempts per game after the trade, nearly six a game less than he was taking in Philly, but his assist numbers stayed the same. Then the playoffs started and all that went out the window. Iverson overdribbled into one contested jumper after another, taking more than 20 shots in every game but making only 36.8 percent as the Spurs knocked out Denver in five games.

One hopes that Iverson will learn from this. In Philadelphia he developed the instinct to do it himself when things got tough, because he sure as heck wasn't getting much help from other sources. But on this team, he's the No. 2 threat, and all those one-on-five forays were just keeping the ball out of Carmelo Anthony's hands.

Despite taking markedly fewer shots in Denver, he didn't make a higher percentage -- which is odd, since removing all the high-difficulty hoists at the end of the clock that he took in Philly should have had a salutary effect on his shooting percentage.

Iverson turned 31 before last season, and his results indicated he may be starting to slip. Iverson's player efficiency rating dropped more than six points from the previous season, one of the biggest dips in the league, and although some of that could be expected based on the jump in PER he'd had a year earlier, nobody foresaw a drop of that magnitude. Only six players saw their mark drop more than Iverson, and none were anywhere near his universe as a player.

The last three star guards to have a drop of his magnitude were Kevin Johnson in 1997-98, Penny Hardaway in 1997-98, and Stephon Marbury in 2005-06. None of them bounced back, so this may be the new normal for Iverson. If so, that's still a heck of a player, but he'll need to tone it down a lot offensively and defer to Anthony more regularly.

Scouting report: Iverson is one of the quickest and fastest players to play the game, something that allows him to penetrate defenses almost at will. The book is to force him to go left, where he's more likely to pull up for jumpers rather than go all the way to the basket and draw fouls or make layups. The crackdown on carrying last season hurt him a bit, but he remains as good as anyone at creating offense at the end of the shot clock.

Iverson isn't nearly as good from outside as he is on the drive, and he still tends to shoot too many 3-pointers. He's improved as a passer in recent seasons though, and it's possible he'll see as much or more time at the point as he does at shooting guard.

Defensively, Iverson is great in the passing lanes but his tendency to gamble often compromises the defense. Despite his quickness he's a mediocre on-ball defender and rarely gets in good help position. His main trick is to try to draw push-off calls by snapping his head back after brushing arms with an opponent, but he only gets the whistle about once very three flops (and no, I didn't track this stat specifically, but thanks for asking).

2007-08 outlook: Based on what's happened to other quick guard in their 30s, and on how Iverson's numbers decline a year ago, it's quite possible we're looking at a new phase in his career. He's still a deadly scorer and a terror in transition, but he's more likely to end up with a PER in the high teens and a scoring average in the low 20s. The key is whether he's ready to make that adjustment -- the way he handled the regular season says yes, but his playoff performance indicates it might be a fight.

Most similar at age: Tim Hardaway

ESPN Remains Confused About Carmelo Anthony

When you read the first paragraph of Hollinger's ESPN Melo evaluation, you start to think you are wasting your time, because it doesn't make much sense. Hollinger makes it seem like Melo's game fell apart just because Iverson was on the team when he came back from the long suspension. Melo lost "4 points a game and 1/3 of his assists". Well, when you are scoring 30 plus points a game, dropping 4 a game is hardly anything to hit the panic button about, or anything to base a sarcastic paragraph on. A small forward dropping 1/3 of his assists depends on the circumstances. Allen Iverson, the ultimate combo guard, is just the circumstance where you would expect the front court to ramp up it's rebounding and post play, and to ramp down the assisting some.

Worse then this, Hollinger, who, translated, calls Melo a pathetic bitch for the near brawl at the Garden last December, reveals his real feelings about the young Team USA superstar, that he is lacking everything it takes to be a true, complete athlete. Or, in a word, Hollinger, like so many other experienced basketball analysts, is hostile toward the Nugget's star. Unfortunately for Hollinger and others who would pick on Melo for his role in the near brawl, they are using the wrong evidence to advance their near or actual hostility and their doubts. Melo ran away after the punch so that he would not be suspended for the entire remainder of the 2006-07 season. Had Melo not run away, but continued to fight the Knicks, who, let's face it, knew full well at the time that they were also rans for the season as a whole, and had almost nothing to lose by provoking the upstart Nuggets, Hollinger would not have been able to make his other incorrect criticism of Melo, the one regarding the fall-off, because Melo simply would not have played at all.

Let me give an inside word of advice to those who think Melo is never going to be a true superstar. Try going after him for being too uncritical of his coaches and his teammates or, in other words, for exhibiting no coaching potential whatsoever for a team whose coaching is suspect to say the very least.

It's no secret that Melo had long jumper problems in February and March last year. Hollinger's knee-jerk recommendation is that Melo should stop attempting so many long jumpers and 3-pointers. If this recommendation were put into effect, it would be the Nuggets raising the white flag on the battle to win the West, because without their star offensive player having a long shot dimension to his game, so that he becomes a complete star offensive player, the Nugget's chances to win the West are slim to none. Were Melo to give up on the 3-pointer and the long 2, the only way the Nuggets would have a good chance would be to get a veteran 3-pointer and defensive specialist, which is just about the only rabbit the Denver front office has not been able to pull out of the hat since they set about trying to emerge from the 44-120 record of 2001-03. The most notable still remaining foul legacy from all the bags over the heads in the stands years of massive losing in Denver is the uncompetitive 3-point shooting.

Good or excellent 3-point shooting has been a prerequisite to be competitive to win the West for at least a decade if not longer. Melo's efforts to get his long shooting squared away is absolutely necessary for both the Nuggets and for Melo's ultimate career evolution. In the Spurs series, the effort finally started to pay off, as Melo hit on 9 of 18 threes. In the FIBA Olympics qualifier tournament for Team USA, Melo made an amazing 26 of 45 threes, and tied with Michael Redd for the most number of sunk threes per game. So much for Hollinger's theory that Melo should ramp down his three-point shooting.

I don't have any other major criticisms of the evaluation. I have a minor criticism: Hollinger's sarcasm on the Melo defensive game is at least a little over the top.

In the last part of the evaluation, Hollinger, if anything, heaps too much praise on Melo, virtually saying that it is inevitable that Melo will be a superstar in the mode of Kobe Bryant before long. But what about the bitch slap? What about the inability to hit anything longer than a midrange? What about the ineptness on defense? What about the carrying, and the laziness in distributing the ball? What the hell happened to your argument, Mr. Hollinger? I'll be damned if you didn't shoot down your own grossly exaggerated criticisms of Melo at the end of the same writing in which you made them. Me thinks an NBA analyst may be a little overworked.

As for us here at Nuggets 1, we will continue to bring you a balanced and carefully considered analysis of the progress of Melo toward superstar status, and of the progress of the Nuggets towards being able to mount a real challenge in the West. We will be optimistic wherever possible, but always realistic. We will definitely avoid wildly swinging from being too negative to being too positive.

Carmelo Anthony ESPN 2006-2007 Evaluation & 2007-2008 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Carmelo Anthony 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for a Nuggets 1 response, probably within 24 hours.

CARMELO ANTHONY ESPN EVALUATION & OUTLOOK

2006-07 season: Opposing defenses can't stop Carmelo Anthony, but one wonders if Allen Iverson might. 'Melo mellowed after the midseason trade for The Answer, losing four points off his scoring average and a third of his assists in games after the All-Star break. Of course, it's dangerous to confuse correlation with causation. Other factors were at play here -- most notably the 15-game ban he got for his pathetic slap-and-run maneuver in a midseason brawl with the Knicks.

Additionally, he was stellar in the playoffs, averaging 26.8 points on 48 percent shooting against the league's best team. Overall, Iverson may have had little to do with Anthony's late-season struggles, but until he has another stretch like the one with which he began the year, people will keep asking the question.

For the season, Anthony's "big picture" stats were all better than the previous campaign -- he added about a point, a rebound and an assist to his 40 minute averages. But his player efficiency rating barely moved because he committed more turnovers and his true shooting percentage went down a bit.

The biggest issue is Anthony's fondness for shooting long jumpers. He's not particularly good from this range and shouldn't be taking these shots unless he's wide open. More than a quarter of his shots were long 2s, but he only made 38 percent. He also tried more than two 3-pointers a game, but made just 26.8 percent.

The left side of the floor, in particular, gave him problems. Anthony only made 31 percent on 2-point attempts from that side of the floor, one of the worst rates in the league. He hadn't shown any disparity the previous two seasons, so it's possible this was a fluke.

Scouting report: A gifted scorer with incredible instincts around the basket, Anthony is among the league's toughest covers. He's big and knows how to use his body in the post, but has the quickness and dribbling skill of a much smaller player. Too often he settles for a jab move and then a quick jumper, but when he's offensively aggressive few defenders can keep him under wraps. His other weakness is handling the ball in the open court, as he tends to carry the ball when he tries to make a crossover move.

Not surprisingly, this has led to more frequent double-teaming, but Anthony has become better at passing out of the double and finding the open man. Putting better shooters around him would undoubtedly increase his assist totals and give him more space to operate, something the Nuggets have tried to do in the offseason.

Anthony is also good in transition, though it's hard not to be when you give yourself a five-second head start on the field. His defensive effort has improved since his rookie year but it's not like it could have gotten worse, and the cherry-picking is just one sign of his tenuous commitment to that end. Also, too often he gambles instead of playing straight-up defense and forcing opponents to shoot over his 6-8 frame. He gets beaten off the ball quite a bit, too, although he holds his own on the boards.

2007-08 outlook: The projections have Anthony finishing second in per-minute scoring behind Kobe Bryant, but the addition of Iverson may change the nature of Anthony's output. It's possible he'll shoot a higher percentage on fewer shots this year, especially if the Nuggets' efforts to add shooting help bear fruit.

The upshot should be the same though -- his first All-Star appearance and another showing near the top of the league scoring leaders. If he can add some defense to that package and subtract a few contested 17-footers, we're looking at a true superstar, and since he's only 23 there's a very good chance he'll get there.

Most similar at age: Kobe Bryant

Answering Hollinger: Do the Nuggets Have Any Space Cadets?

First of all, I want to say that Hollinger is a good analyst. You would hope that a highly paid full-time ESPN would be, so there is no surprise there. He has identified most of the major factors that will determine the fate of the Nuggets this year. But being human, and being limited in how much time he could put into following the Nuggets, he missed a few factors and his analysis is a little off here and there. I am going to concentrate here on Hollinger's biggest mistake.

Hollinger committed a big contradiction with regard to J.R. Smith. He says that the Nuggets getting him from the Bulls for a second round pick was "a steal," and he says that Smith is a deep shooter, and that his (along with Melo's) loss during the suspensions left the Nuggets "devoid of offensive punch". Later, Hollinger says Smith "has the offensive talent to be the knock-down shooter who spaces the floor for the big guns, and the quickness to be a capable defender who slows up the Ginobilis and McGradys of the West long enough for Camby to ride to the rescue."

But at the same time, Hollinger says, or at least implies, that Smith losing his minutes was automatic due to the arrival of Iverson, that Smith can be a "space cadet," and that when he is one of those, his skills are no longer available, so he should not be playing. I guess Smith should check himself out anytime he feels that space cadet thing coming on.

For the record, it is obvious that Smith losing half or more of his minutes with Iverson's arrival was not at all automatic.

Let's get one thing straight right here and now. If, as in Hollinger's world, there are players in the NBA who have some kind of mental defect where they become "space cadets" and lose most or all of their playing ability, they should be waived immediately. And whoever signed them should be fired for making such an obvious mistake. They should never have made a pro team to begin with. Fortunately, the vast majority, if not all, humans do not have space cadet episodes, whatever they are, so there are more than enough good basketball players to fill out all the leagues everywhere, without having to have a space cadet on any team anywhere.

All of the critics of Smith want to have it both ways. They sing his praises regarding his obvious skills, but then they say "but it doesn't matter, because he can be a space cadet". Or, "but it doesn't matter, because he can make a goofy shooting decision at a critical moment." The former is Hollinger and the latter is George Karl, and I am sure each would agree with the other's complaint about Smith.

To call any professional athlete a space cadet is a slur. If you think Smith is mentally ill, or that he has a physical brain defect, come out and say so and demand that he be evaluated professionally. Give him a leave of absence and help him get the care and treatment he needs. Someone who has a brain illness should not be working in a high stress occupation. Don't do a hit and run with the vague phrase "space cadet".

Unless Smith has some mental disease like epilepsy, or unless he is on drugs while he is playing, he has the same mental faculties at all times. If he makes a mistake, it's part of his normal personality and brain functioning, not some sudden illness. He has the same brain function and personality when he is hitting half a dozen straight threes as when he goes 1 for 11 on threes during a game. Instruct him to stop shooting threes in the fourth quarter if he's having one of those games, don't say he's mentally ill.

So Hollinger has made a slur on Smith, or else he has made a slur on the Nuggets organization. If Smith is in fact ill, then the Nuggets messed up giving up the second rounder to get him, or perhaps the Nuggets team doctors are negligent because they have not discovered some brain disease that Smith has. Or perhaps the Nuggets have one or more players on their team with a drug problem, and they don't detect it or root it out.

I do not at all agree. I say that both Hollinger and George Karl have cast slurs on J.R. Smith, because they refuse to accept the mistakes that come with his youth, personality, and skill set, along with the benefits. They want the good without the bad. In sports, as in life, you have to take the bad with the good, and to get the really good you must sometimes put up with the really bad. Your concern as a Coach or a fan is whether and by how much the good exceeds the bad.

We see this in nature as well as sports. In the spring and summer, trees bloom green and provide good shade (and good oxygen). In the fall in the far North, in places like Vermont and Michigan, the trees become so colorful that folks take tours to check them out. A few weeks later, the colors and the leaves are gone, and the trees look ugly on a cold and rainy winter day. And in an ice storm, branches might come down, creating a huge mess. Or the whole tree might fall on and damage your house or your car.

Now, you could say, "those trees are really nice in the Spring, Summer, and Fall, but they are ugly in the Winter, and they might possibly come down on my house, so they should be cut down. That would be Hollinger's or Karl's view of the trees. So with either of them in charge, the yard ends up without the benefit of the trees. Or, you or I could say "Yeah, the trees are ugly and slightly risky in the winter, but I can tolerate that because they are nice the rest of the year. They are nice and beneficial for 9 months and not so nice and sometimes bad for 3 months." That's the reasonable and logical way of looking at the trees, as well as the reasonable and logical way of looking at a player like J.R. Smith. He is in the top 10% of all pro basketball shooting guards on his numerous good nights, but you have to put up with a bad game now and then, and a really stupid decision now and then. If the good outweighs the bad, and the trees, and Smith, overall contribute alot more good then bad, then why would you cut them down? Why would you refuse to play Smith?

Because you, if you are George Karl, are an unrealistic perfectionist who refuses to deal with what you have labelled a defective personality. And you think that you might be able to change a defective personality for the better, by using various carrot and stick methods. You don't want to deal with the personalities you have been dealt on your team, you only want to deal with personalities that meet your criteria. Unfortunately, personalities can not be changed much, if at all, by a series of awards and punishments. Your actions are never going to change anyone's personality to any measurable extent.

What you are supposed to do as a Coach is to make the best use of the personalities and skills you have on your team. With respect to each player, you are supposed to train that player on the skills that he is most lacking, as well as to encourage him to keep practicing his best skills, so as to keep them at the high level. In the case of J.R. Smith, for example, you try to improve his distribution skill by having him play pass only in practice squad games over and over, every practice. You try to improve his defensive skill by putting him in defensive drills over and over.

Getting back to Hollinger, you can see what Hollinger has done with his Nuggets analysis. He has cast a slur on J.R. Smith and, in fact, on the Nuggets as a whole. In effect, he is accusing the entire Nuggets organization of being in over their heads with respect to building a Championship caliber team. In Hollinger's mind, the Nuggets can not win a Championship because they have a "space cadet" on their team, and because they can not mentally figure out stuff like how to integrate Allen Iverson's game with Melo's game and with the team as a whole.

So what Hollinger is really implying is that, along with Smith, there is a space cadet or two or three in the Nugget's front office. Now why did Hollinger cast these aspersions? Because the highest paid sports analysts rarely if ever directly criticize the strategies and tactics of coaches. In my view, Mr. Karl committed many errors, and so Hollinger had to cast aspersions far and wide to avoid going after Karl, the real problem. Specifically, to avoid criticizing Karl, Hollinger had to decimate Smith, trash Iverson, and suggest that the Nugget's organization is mentally unfit to win a Championship. But if all this was actually true, then how did the Nuggets win 47 out of 82 games and dominate the Spurs in game one of the series? Something isn't right there. If all of Hollinger's claims were true, the Nuggets would not have made the playoffs last season.

Though wrong about Smith, Iverson, and the Nugget's front office, a man such as Hollinger can not completely strike out without getting at least a piece of the ball, and Hollinger in fact did get a foul tip while at bat here.

While there are no space cadets anywhere in the Nugget's organization, there is someone who holds some beliefs and attitudes that a crude person might think could only be held by a "space cadet." There is one George Karl who lives, to some extent, in a fantasy world, where personalities can be changed, and changed fairly easily too, with rewards and punishments. These theories were investigated and proven to be wrong by psychologists in the 1800's. For Coach Karl, playing minutes are the reward when a player changes their personality for the better, and bench time is the punishment when a player fails to change their personality. The trouble is, as psychologists have shown, there is no known way for someone to change their personality short of, ironically, taking psychoactive drugs. I say ironically because, if you had a player who took a drug to change his personality, you would then have a real space cadet on your hands.

John Hollinger of ESPN's Preseason Take on the Nuggets

John Hollinger's ESPN Nuggets Preview

NOTE: This is one man's opinion. Hollinger has a high rep because he is one of ESPN's top basketball analysts, and he is a statistical guru. So it's one smart man's opinion. Hollinger can not rock the boat very much without raising eyebrows at ESPN, something he doesn't want to do considering the lofty position he has at ESPN. And these views do not necessarily reflect the views of Nuggets 1. Come back soon for the Nuggets 1 response to this, which will most likely be posted within 24 hours. Bookmark Nuggets 1 now.

2006-07 RECAP

JOHN HOLLINGER SAYS:
For a team that was summarily dismissed in five games in the first round, the Nuggets had an awfully good team by the end of last season. Unfortunately their opponent in April was eventual champion San Antonio, and while the Nuggets played them as tough as anyone, they were no match for the mighty Spurs.

That series, which featured four nip-and-tuck games before the Spurs ran away with Game 5, gives the Nuggets a dash of optimism heading into this season, but there was an awful lot of drama leading up to that point.

The season began with Kenyon Martin -- whose feuding with George Karl had marred the end of the previous season -- seemingly patching things up with his coach, only to go under the knife for a second microfracture surgery. This was on the other knee, putting the career of the jumping-jack forward in jeopardy. He missed the entire season, naturally, and Denver's decision to give up three first-round picks and pay $91 million over seven years for Martin has never looked worse.

Melo was having a great season until a scuffle broke out at MSG.

Even without K-Mart, the Nuggets got off to a nice start. Carmelo Anthony was leading the league in scoring at midseason, while Nene made an unexpectedly quick recovery from the previous season's knee surgery and stabilized the power forward slot left vacant by Martin's injury. J.R. Smith, stolen from the Bulls for a second-round pick, gave the team a much-needed deep shooter.

Not to mention, oft-injured center Marcus Camby stayed on the court for 70 games, and eventually led the league in blocks and won the league's Defensive Player of the Year award.

Thanks to those events the Nuggets were 14-8 on Dec. 16, when they were in the midst of wrapping up a blowout win against the Knicks. Then their season went upside-down on them. Smith was tackled while going for a layup, a fight ensued, and Anthony improvised a foolish, cowardly slap-and-run maneuver that resulted in a 15-game suspension. Smith got 10 games for his role, leaving the Nuggets devoid of offensive punch.

The loss of Anthony accelerated Denver's timeline on another front: Trading for Allen Iverson. The Nuggets had been interested even before the suspensions, but with their meal ticket suspended they decided to pull the trigger right away on a deal that sent Andre Miller and Joe Smith to Philly for The Answer. While they were at it, Denver also figured one diminutive ball-dominating guard was plenty and sent Earl Boykins to Milwaukee for Steve Blake.

The new-look Nuggets got off to a slow start, as the suspensions and an ankle injury to Iverson left them reeling. They had some chemistry issues to work out, too, as both Iverson and Anthony were used to being the alpha dog, and as a result Denver went 3-7 in its first 10 games with the dynamic duo. The Nuggies even briefly fell under .500, at 29-31 in mid-March, before recovering with a 10-1 April.

However, perhaps a bigger story from that season-ending finish is how both Iverson and Anthony saw their numbers drop off after the trade. The big question at the time was whether there were enough shots to go around for both of them; the answer based on the end of last season is perhaps there isn't.

Of course, other problems also played into this. With Iverson taking over at shooting guard, Smith went to the bench and the Nuggets once again found themselves short of 3-point shooting. Denver led the NBA in points in the paint and was second in fast-break points, but the lack of a perimeter threat kept them from ranking in the league's elite overall. For the season, Denver ranked 28th in the league in 3-point percentage, and individually Smith and Linas Kleiza were the only ones to make more than a third of their tries.

With Iverson's arrival pushing both of those players deeper in the rotation, it allowed opponents to sag into the paint, forcing both Iverson and Anthony to drive into crowds. Thus, the dropoff in scoring from Denver's two stars might have been less a result of bad chemistry than of improper personnel surrounding them.

That said, the ending of the Spurs series had to give Nuggets fans pause as well. Iverson acted like he was back in Philadelphia, continually overdribbling and forcing shots instead of deferring to Anthony -- the one player who gives San Antonio defensive ace Bruce Bowen serious fits.

Through it all the Nuggets managed to be a pretty good offensive team, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency, but I don't think they made the Iverson deal and chose to pay luxury tax this year to get "pretty good." Denver has given itself a slim window to win a championship before Iverson and Camby lose it, and to get there with this cast they'll need to be a top-five offensive team.

At the other end of the court, many did a quick eyeball of Denver's stats and labeled the Nuggets a poor defensive team. But that simply wasn't true. It was a failure to understand the impact of pace, mainly: The Nuggets played at the league's second-fastest clip, and thus their points allowed per game averages were high. Additionally, Denver gave up a fairly high field goal percentage, further confusing the masses: Their 46.0 percent allowed was above the league average of 45.8 percent.

Opponent Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt: 2006-07 Leaders
TEAM OPP. FGA/FTA
Phoenix .268
San Antonio .272
Denver .274
New Orleans/OKC .280
Toronto .290
League average .327

But Denver was very good at one key element: avoiding fouls. The Nuggets permitted just .274 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranking a close third behind Phoenix and San Antonio in that category (see chart). As a result, the team ranked 11th in opponent true shooting percentage against, and that was good enough to help the team rank ninth overall in defensive efficiency.

That's a good enough defensive effort to win big, especially the way this roster is built. But to get there, the Nuggets will have to dial up the offense. They also might want to run some extra laps after practice -- the mile-high air and fast pace were supposed to tire their opponents, but Denver was outscored badly in the fourth quarter last season.

OFF-SEASON MOVES

JOHN HOLLINGER SAYS:
It was a very quiet offseason in the Rockies, as the Nuggets opted to see how last season's big move for Iverson plays out before attempting any further surgery. Denver also has some financial issues to consider, as it will be well over the luxury tax this year and next before Iverson's contract expires in 2009.

The Nuggets clearly knew this when they made the trade, and thus I don't expect them to pull a Phoenix and start shedding contracts left and right. Rather, it appears the plan is to pay the tax while pursuing a ring during this two-year window and re-assess in '09.

Draft day passed without a whisper, as Denver already had traded both picks -- one for Martin, the other for J.R. Smith. The Nuggets are viewing late-season pickup Von Wafer as their "draft pick" after he led the CBA in 3-point shooting, and on a team in need of some long-range help he might fill a niche.

One other financial consideration to keep in mind is that the Nuggets still have a cap exception worth nearly $3 million from the Boykins trade. That could come in handy if they go in search of backcourt help at the trade deadline.

• Signed Chucky Atkins, let Steve Blake leave
Denver let Blake cash in his solid half-season as a Nugget and went for more of a pure shooter in Atkins, a reasonable move considering the team's need for players who can spread the floor. There's some concern with playing the 5-11 Atkins next to the 6-0 Iverson in the backcourt, but with Camby guarding their backs the hope is that the Nuggets' guards won't be burned on the blocks.

• Traded Reggie Evans, Ricky Sanchez for Steven Hunter, Bobby Jones
A surplus power forward who was going to see little action, the Nuggets converted Evans into Hunter, a backup center who gives them a nice cap bonus -- Hunter's contract expires a year earlier. Hunter had his best season with a running outfit in Phoenix in 2004-05, so he should benefit from Denver's fast pace. He's also decent insurance for if, or should I say when, Camby goes on the shelf.

BIGGEST STRENGTH/WEAKNESS

JOHN HOLLINGER SAYS:
Offensively, the Nuggets can beat you two ways. First, they can run you into submission, which is their preferred style in Denver's altitude especially. But teams that cut off the break still must contend with the Nuggets in the halfcourt, and that means three separate problematic matchups.

The most vexing is Anthony, who has the size to post up smaller forwards but is also unusually quick for his size and capable of stepping outside for jumper. Anthony is at his best when he's going to the hoop, but his outstanding outside shooting for Team USA the past two summers shows he's capable of burning opponents from the perimeter, too.

Then there's Iverson, who at 32 remains as quick as any player in basketball. Teams often have to guard him with their own little quick guys, most of whom aren't used to chasing big-time scorers through off-ball screens or defending against isolations on the wing. As an added plus, he added more of a passing element to his game in Denver -- at least until the Spurs series -- and should continue to embrace that aspect. Denver was 11-0 when he had double-figure assists last season.

Finally, don't sleep on Nene. The Brazilian big man gave the Nuggets a solid post presence, especially in the second half of last season when his knee started feeling better. At 6-11, 268 pounds, he demands a big defender -- if not a double-team. After the break last season, he averaged 13.0 points per game and shot 62.4 percent.

Biggest Weakness: Starter No. 5
The Nuggets have four-fifths of an awesome team. If they can complete the quintet they'll be as good as any team in basketball, but that's where the questions start. Atkins should be an improvement on Blake, even though he's coming off a Fluke Rule season, but he's 33 and short so the pairing with Iverson is a bit troubling from the defensive end.

Other candidates offer possibilities too. Smith has mad talent but can't keep his head on straight, exemplified by some loopy plays in the Spurs series that ended with Karl publicly removing him from the rotation. Smith's shooting is the perfect antidote to the Nuggets' problems, but his presence forces Iverson to play the point. Additionally, his defense needs serious work, as he'd be the one who has to guard the Kobes and Wades of the league.

Another possibility is Kleiza, who had a strong finish to last season, but at 6-8 he's much more comfortable at a forward spot. Wafer is the newest flavor and has the size and athleticism to defend shooting guards, but he's still a bit raw, not to mention completely unproven. Finally, lurking deep on the roster is Yakhouba Diawara, who is the best defender of the bunch but might be the worst offensive player in the state of Colorado.

If you aren't impressed by these choices, join the club. One senses the Nuggets have one more deal left in them between now and the trade deadline before they have the roster in place that can make a run at a championship.

OUTLOOK

JOHN HOLLINGER SAYS:
Denver will be good, of course -- with players like Anthony, Iverson, Nene and Camby it's tough not to be. And in the East, that might be enough. But in this conference, it takes 60-win talent just to get in the conversation. The Nuggets won 45 last season, and while they're better than that final won-loss record showed, it still feels like they're a player away from rivaling the Texas trio.

Two important players to watch are Iverson and Camby. Iverson's numbers dropped off alarmingly last season, and if that's more than an adjustment period from the trade the Nuggets need to be worried. Small, quick guards tend to fare very poorly in their 30s; Iverson had defied that trend until last season and seems just as fast as ever, but if he isn't providing All-Star caliber play at one of the guard spots then they're not getting anywhere near the title.

Similarly, Camby's injuries are always a concern. Denver can live with it if he's hurt in January, but if he's MIA in May that pretty much sinks its hopes.

But perhaps the biggest wild card is Smith. He has the offensive talent to be the knock-down shooter who spaces the floor for the big guns, and the quickness to be a capable defender who slows up the Ginobilis and McGradys of the West long enough for Camby to ride to the rescue. That only works if he's engaged mentally, though, and the 21-year-old had enough space cadet moments in his first three pro seasons to call that premise into question.

So while the upside for this group is high, they look more like bridesmaids in this conference. Look for Anthony to push for the scoring title while Iverson boosts his assists and takes on a secondary scoring role, and look for the Nuggets to edge out Utah for the division crown. But they're unlikely to make a run beyond that without further tweaking to the roster.

Prediction: 53-29, 1st place in Northwest Division, 5th in Western Conference (4th playoff seed)

The above preseason commentary on the Nuggets is by John Hollinger of ESPN and does NOT necessarily reflect the views of Nuggets 1. Come back soon for the Nuggets 1 response to this, which will most likely be posted here within 24 hours. Bookmark Nuggets 1 now.

Injury Bulletin: Anthony Carter Breaks Bone in Hand

NUGGETS 1 INJURY ALERT

DENVER - Denver Nuggets guard Anthony Carter broke a bone in his right hand during practice Saturday morning.

He fractured the third metacarpal, the team said. No timeline was set for his return.

Carter averaged 3.0 points, 5.5 assists and 1.5 rebounds in two games for the Nuggets last season. In eight years in the NBA, Carter has averaged 4.7 points, 3.7 assists and two rebounds in 364 games for Miami, San Antonio, Minnesota and Denver.

IMPACT OF THIS INJURY ON THE NUGGETS

If Point Guard Carter is out and not replaced with a new acquisition, it forces the coaches to play Iverson at the point more, in back up of Chucky Atkins, who is technically the only other full point guard on the Nuggets roster right now.

This could be a blessing in disguise, because I think that the best way to offset the lack of adequate offensive set plays, and to force Iverson to cut down on weak or meaningless dribbling and isolation plays, is to put him at the point, so that he knows up front that he is supposed to, quickly, distribute to anyone who is scoring and open. Iverson himself will still get his shots, but without all the isolation plays, that the defense can fairly easily smother, that he has been stuck with while playing the 2-spot.

An example of how it should work: Iverson at the point passes to player X in the post, who passes back out to player Y who is on or near the 3-line. Y gets it back to Iverson, who is now in a driving lane or in scoring position. That's alot better than having a point guard pass to Iverson, and then have him dribble around and put up a very contested jumper. The over reliance on Iverson to score is the main reason Iverson was unproductive in much of the Spurs playoff series after game 1. In basketball, when you over rely on a player, you are making it too easy for the defense.

An Outstanding Nuggets Video: "Denver Nuggets Highlights of 2006-2007"

Here is the best video found on the internet for highlights of the 2006-07 season:

DENVER NUGGETS HIGHLIGHTS OF 2006-2007




The very best videos will be posted right here in Nuggets 1. For more videos, go to +Nuggets 1 Videos from the main menu. There you will find every video posted here, plus others that I decide not to put on this main page.

An Outstanding 4-Pack of Carmelo Anthony Videos: The Rising Empire Series

CARMELO ANTHONY: RISING EMPIRE PART 1


CARMELO ANTHONY: RISING EMPIRE PART 2


CARMELO ANTHONY: RISING EMPIRE PART 3


CARMELO ANTHONY: RISING EMPIRE PART 4


The very best videos will be posted right here in Nuggets 1. For more videos, go to +Nuggets 1 Videos from the main menu. There you will find every video posted here, plus others that I decide not to put on this main page.

An Outstanding Carmelo Anthony Video: "Battle to Win"

CARMELO ANTHONY-BATTLE TO WIN




The very best videos will be posted right here in Nuggets 1. For more videos, go to +Nuggets 1 Videos from the main menu. There you will find every video posted here, plus others that I decide not to put on this main page.

Shop Ebay Nuggets, Carmelo Anthony, & Allen Iverson Items From Nuggets 1 Quickly and Easily

I just tripled how useful and informative the +Nuggets 1 Buy and Sell page is. It already had the most current 100 Denver Nuggets items up for bid and sale at Ebay. Added today are the most current 100 Carmelo Anthony and the most current 100 Allen Iverson items up for bid and sale.

You will find that it is simpler and faster to look for Nuggets items at Ebay starting from +Nuggets 1 Buy and Sell than it is to start from Ebay itself. Nuggets 1 is driven to save Nuggets fans time and grief with respect to all aspects to being a sports fan. Nuggets 1 is out to make everything quick and easy, and we are succeeding.

Here's a direct link so you don't even have to run down the menu:

http://nuggets1buyandsell.blogspot.com/

Carmelo Anthony: A Superstar of the 2007 FIBA Americas Tournament & Olympics Qualifier

FIBA AMERICAS CHAMPIONSHIP & OLYMPICS QUALIFIER

CARMELO ANTHONY REACHES A HIGHER LEVEL

Carmelo Anthony tore up the court at the 2007 Federation of International Basketball Association Americas Championship. Team USA Qualification for the 2008 Olympics was achieved easily; it was clinched before the tournament was even over.

This and the successful return of K-Mart is the Nugget's ticket out of the first round this season. And they should be very competitive in the Western Conference round of four (the Conference semifinals) as long as Karl does not muck things up too badly. Can Melo take his team to the Western Conference finals or the NBA finals? It's way too early to say whether it is possible or not for this season, but let's just say for now that stranger things have happened.

SCORING

Melo finishes second, out of roughly 360 players in the tournament with 21.2 ppg. Leandro Barbosa, playing for Brazil, was first with 21.8 ppg.


TEAM USA TOP 5 SCORERS IN POINTS PER GAME

1. Carmelo Anthony 21.2
2. Lebron James 18.1
3. Kobe Bryant 15.3
4. Michael Redd 14.4
5. Amare Stoudemire 11.1

TOP 10 SCORERS OVERALL, IN POINTS PER GAME, FOR THE TOURNAMENT

1. Leandro Barbosa, Brazil 21.8
2. Carmelo Anthony, USA 21.2
3. Jason Edwin 21.0
4. Esteban Batista, Uruguay 20.8
5. Romel Beck, Mexico 20.3
6. Hector Romero, Venezuela 19.9
7. Luis Scola, Argentina 19.5
8. Elias Ayuso, Puerto Rico 19.1
9. Jaime Lloredo, Panama 18.5
10.Lebron James, USA 18.1

REBOUNDING

Melo finished 17th, among rougly 360 players in the tournament.

TOP 3 REBOUNDERS FOR TEAM USA

1. Dwight Howard 5.3
2. Carmelo Anthony 5.2
3. Tayshaun Prince 5.1

TOP 10 REBOUNDERS OVERALL, IN REBOUNDS PER GAME, FOR THE TOURNAMENT

1. Esteban Batista, Uruguay 12.4
2. Antonio Garcia, Panama 9.8
3. Augelo Reyes, Puerto Rico 9.5
4. Sam Dalembert, Canada 9.4
5. Tiago Splitter, Brazil 8.0
6. Luis Scola, Argentina 7.5
Hector Romero, Mexico 7.5
8. Peter Ramos, Puerto Rico 7.1
9. Danilo Pinnock, Panama 7.0
10.Jaime Lloreda, Panama 6.8
(Skipping 11-14 and 16)
15.Dwight Howard, USA 5.3
17. Carmelo Anthony, USA 5.2

ACCURACY

Melo finished 7th in fg% among approximately 360 players in the tournament. The USA heavily dominated this.

MOST ACCURATE SHOOTERS FOR THE USA IN % OF FIELD GOALS MADE
Note: 2 and 3 point shots are combined together for this

1. Dwight Howard, 35 field goals .814
2. Lebron James, 73 field goals .760
3. Amare Stoudemire, 37 field goals .673
4. Carmelo Anthony, 65 field goals .613


TOP 10 MOST ACCURATE SHOOTERS OVERALL, FOR THE TOURNAMNET

1. Dwight Howard, USA .814
2. Lebron James, USA .760
3. Joa Paulo Batista, Brazil .677
4. Amare Stoudemire, USA .673
5. Murillo Da Rosa, Brazil .643
6. Vladimir Kuljianin, Canada .615
7. Carmelo Anthony, USA .614
8. Romel Beck, Mexico .589
9. Valter Da Silva, Brazil .585
10.Dave Thomas, Canada .581

ASSISTS

Melo did not rank among the top 15 tournament players in this category.

TOP USA PLAYERS IN ASSISTS PER GAME

1. Lebron James 4.70
2. Jason Kidd 4.60
3. Deron Williams 4.60
4. Kobe Bryant 2.90

TOP 10 IN ASSISTS PER GAME FOR THE TOURNAMENT

1. Pablo Prigioni, Argentina 6.30
2. Lebron James, USA 4.70
3. Valter DeSilva, Brazil 4.60
Carlos Arroyo, Puerto Rico 4.60
Jason Kidd, USA 4.60
Deron Williams 4.60
7. Jermaine Anderson, Canada 4.00
8. Jose Vargas, Venezuela 3.50
9. Carlos Delfino, Argentina 3.30
10.Greivis Vasquez, Venezuela 3.25

FREE THROWS MADE ACCURACY PERCENTAGE

Carmelo Anthony did not rank in the top 15 players in the tournament in this category. For the USA, only Kobe Bryant was among the top 15. He made 34 ovf 39 free throws, for a percentage of .872.

Elias Ayuso of Puerto Rico shaded Bryant by a tiny amount by making two more throws, for 36 of 41, and a percentage of .878. Mauricio Aguiar of Uruguay made 16 of 17 free throws for a percentage of .941.

STEALS

Carmelo Anthony did not rank in the top 15 players in the tournament in this category. Two Team USA players were in the top 15 in steals:

TOP TWO TEAM USA PLAYERS IN STEALS PER GAME

1. Kobe Bryant 1.60 spg (16 steals in 10 games)
2. Lebron James 1.50 spg (15 steals in 10 games)

TOP 4 PLAYERS OVERALL IN STEALS PER GAME IN THE TOURNAMENT

1. Carlos Delfino, Argentina, 2.00 spg (20 steals in 10 games)
2. Anthony Pedrosa, Mexico, 2.00 spg (16 steals in 8 games)
3. Joel Munos, Panama, 2.00 spg (8 steals in 4 games)
4. Victor Cuthbert, 2.00 spg (8 steals in 4 games)

3-POINT FIELD GOAL ACCURACY-% MADE

Carmelo Anthony finished 5th among the approximately 360 international players in 3-Point accuracy.

TOP 5 TEAM USA PLAYERS IN 3-POINTERS % MADE

1. Jason Kidd .625 (5 of 8)
2. Lebron James .622 (23 of 37)
3. Carmelo Anthony .578 (26 of 45)
4. Deron Williams .500 (5 of 10)
5. Kobe Bryant .453 (17 of 37)

It seems like there are alot of international teams who have an even worse time defending the three than the Nuggets do.

Dave Thomas of Canada had the highest 3-pointers made percentage in the tournament with .667 on 8 of 12.

3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE PER GAME

Carmelo Anthony finished 4th among approximately 360 players in this category.

TOP 3 TEAM USA PLAYERS IN 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE PER GAME

1. Michael Redd 2.90 (29 in 10 games)
2. Carmelo Anthony 2.89 (26 in 9 games)
3. Lebron James 2.30 (23 in 10 games)

Overall, Elias Ayuso of Puerto Rico led the tournament in 3-Pointers made per game with 3.70 on 37 in 10 games. Nicolas Massarino of Uruguay was 2nd with 3.13 on 25 in 8 games. Redd was 3rd and Melo was 4th for the tournament as a whole. Now can Nuggets fans finally expect Melo to be a threat in the one dimension of scoring that he hasn't yet been a big threat in during his Nuggets career, 3-point scoring? If so, that and K-Mart being back in good condition should be the ticket out of the first round this season.

BLOCKED SHOTS PER GAME

Carmelo Anthony did not rank in the top 15 players in the tournament in this category. Team USA had 2 players in the top 15:

TOP 2 TEAM USA PLAYERS IN BLOCKS PER GAME

1. Dwight Howard 1.80 (18 blocks in 10 games)
2. Tyson Chandler 1.40 (14 blocks in 10 games)

Sam Dalembert of Canada led the tournament with 2.38 blocks per game, 19 blocks in 8 games. Miguel Marriaga of Venezuala was second with 2.00 blocks per game, 16 blocks in 8 games. Then Howard was 3rd and Chandler was fourth for the tournament.

ASSIST TO TURNOVER RATIO
Carmelo Anthony did not rank in the top 15 players in the tournament in this category. Team USA cleaned up and dominated the tournament in this aspect of the game. They were able to shred defenses that were no match for the speed and intensity of the NBA game that was imported into the tournament. Team USA had 5 players among the top 15 in the tournament and, amazingly, they finished with 5 of the top 6 positions, which were as follows:

TOP 6 PLAYERS IN THE TOURNAMENT IN ASSIST TO TURNOVER RATIO

1. Jason Kidd 9.20
2. Deron Williams 4.60
3. Jermaine Anderson, Canada 4.57
4. Chauncey Billups 3.25
5. Tayshaun Prince 3.17
6. Lebron James 2.76

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS

Carmelo Anthony did not rank in the top 15 players in the tournament in this category. No Team USA player finished among the top 15 players in the tournament in offensive rebounding. Esteban Batista of Uruguay was first for the tournament with 4.38 offensive rebounds per game, 35 in 8 games to be exact. Augelo Reyes of Puerto Rico was 2nd with 3.40 offensive rebounds per game; he had 34 in 10 games.

DEFENSIVE REBOUNDS

Carmelo Anthony was 15th among roughly 360 players in the tournament in defensive rebounding, with 4.11 defensive rebounds per game, 37 in 9 games to be exact.

TOP 2 TEAM USA PLAYERS IN DEFENSIVE REBOUNDS PER GAME

1. Tayshaun Prince 4.44 (40 in 9 games)
2. Carmelo Anthony 4.11 (37 in 9 games)

TOP 5 DEFENSIVE REBOUNDERS IN THE TOURNAMENT

1. Esteban Batista, Uruguay 8.00 (64 in 8 games)
2. Antonio Garcia, Panama 7.50 (30 in 4 games)
3. Sam Dalembert, Canada 7.13 (57 in 8 games)
4. Augelo Reyes, Puerto Rico 6.10 (61 in 10 games)
5. Luis Scola, Argentina 5.70 (57 in 10 games