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Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From April, 2008, Part 3

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

The following commentary was made during the Lakers sweep of the Nuggets 4 games to zero in round one of the 2008 NBA playoffs.
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I'm cheating a little on my time-out from writing. I still don't have my damn property sold, but there was good progress overall today, though.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE SERIES
1.If Nene is not playing you have to play Yakhouba Diawara, like it or not. The fact that he is not ready to play offensively, assuming that is true, is the fault of the Nuggets coaching staff. Camby-Martin-Najera can not shut down anyone important and they form a swiss cheese defense in the paint. And Camby has a tendency to be swanped defensively without any big man around to help defend the paint. One of only a very few ways the Nuggets can win a game against the Lakers is if the sum of their points in the paint and free throw points is greather than that sum for the Lakers.

2. Both Camby and Kenyon Martin were all but shut down offensively, yet another example of how when you have no set plays at all you can have key players come up empty offensively too easily. How can the Nuggets expect to win when they have as many "all offense players" and "all defense players" as they do? They can't expect to win that way. The Nuggets need as many of the following things as possible: Camby, Martin, and Najera need to score more and Carmelo Anthony and Linas Kleiza have to defend better.

3. It was nice to see Carter's minutes limited to some extent. It was also nice to see that retired coach Jeff Van Gundy is yet another color commentator who agrees that the Carter-Iverson backcourt is more trouble than it's worth. There hasn't been one commentator yet who has NOT made the point that the Carter-Iverson lineup is dubious and can not possibly get you to the Western Finals.

4. The Nugget's defense was so lacking that the Lakers didn't even need what I call an offensive identity to offensively roll in game 1; they had 100% dominance in the paint, so their forwards and centers went to town passing to each other up front all game long. In summary, this game was a complete and total defensive breakdown and was NOT due to any special offensive strategies or skills from the Lakers.

5 It was not nice to see the TV commentators practically making fun of Anthony's relatively lax defending. Has GK really and truly molded Anthony into being a better defender, and/or into being a more balanced player as some have claimed? I don't think so. If not, why not?

6. It was nice to see that Carmelo Anthony did not seem to be drunk during the game.
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I said the overall combination up front failed miserably. But since you brought up Martin, I'll tell you what I didn't like. I didn't like to see how much K-Mart was guarding Kobe Bryant. You almost never want a power forward guarding a shooting guard to the extent that happened in this game. If you have that, you are admitting up front that there is something seriously wrong with your defense in general, and about your guards' defending in particular.

And you are making what might be a bad situation worse. If K-Mart is guarding Kobe, then that means Najera, Kleiza, Camby, and Anthony are all that's left to guard the likes of Odom, Gasol, Radmanovic, and Walton. That spells disaster, and that is exactly what the Nuggets had defensively in game 1.

Not having Nene makes it a major blunder to put Kenyon Martin on Kobe Bryant. Put Yak in the game to guard Kobe and stop disrespecting J.R. Smith's improved defending. Do not think you can beat the Lakers by having K-Mart guard Kobe Bryant, and by therefore leaving the Laker's centers and forwards to run all over you.
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JR Smith played 23 minutes before fouling out, not 2. I want to keep Smitty in the game, but if he fouls out, he should come out, because I don't want him fouling, I want him defending, disrupting and stealing.

It matters for every player what position that player plays. The Nuggets' coaches have failed in general to make clear who does what in basketball games, a task which starts with respecting what position or 2 positions at the most a player is most suited for. So it does matter what position K-Mart plays, whether or not you are facing Gasol/Odom/Radmanovic/Walton, but especially if you are.

Camby without Nene or K-Mart helping defensively up front ranges from reckless to automatic disaster, with the damage largely depending on who the Nuggets are playing and whether it is a playoff game or not.

Wow, this is the first time ever I heard something from you about Carter playing too much. Did you flip over to our side finally? If so, welcome to it. You won't regret it and I will not hold your former opinion, that there is nothing wrong with the Carter PG and Iverson SG backcourt, against you. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone's opinion changes sometimes. I am still disturbed by my bonehead claim that the Raptors are almost last in assists per game. I must have been half asleep when I thought I saw that and then added it to a paragraph that had a related but different point.
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"The obstinate and annoying one" contested me as follows:

No, you are completely and totally wrong. The Nuggets have plenty of flexibility with their roster that they can play Kenyon as defensive SG and still have big bodies play defense at SF and PF.


My response was:

Of course they can do that, the question is whether they get decent results if they do that, and this game is a textbook example of the terrible results they get if they choose to do that.
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Then "The obstinate and annoying one" said:

The Nuggets have a group of 6'8" guys that can do a fine job if they rotate the way they are suppose to. As long as Melo and LK don't fall asleep on their rotations, the Nuggets will be vastly improved.


And I said:

Melo and LK do fall asleep on their rotations too much, and they are not highly skilled defenders to begin with, which means you can not divert K-Mart from defending Laker forwards/centers without paying a huge, unacceptable price.
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It seems that you are agreeing with me and you don't realize it. As I already said, Camby without Nene or K-Mart up front is automatic disaster against a team like the Lakers. Same thing if it's Najera without Nene or K-Mart, with or without Camby.
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Laughs are to be had on internet forums for those who know what is truly funny. Are there ANY binary decisions in basketball??? Also, GK is probably the only coach in NBA history to describe one of his players as "living in fantasyland," so it WAS a GK kind of statement.
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Now "The obstinate and annoying" guy had moved in my direction:

Ideally, Anthony Carter wouldn't start, however, the Nuggets didn't have a better, healthy option. During the regular season, because AI plays 40+ MPG, he has to have minutes where he isn't the PG. AI is not an effective NBA player when he forced to play PG all of his minutes and that is proven over his career. What AI did in HS and College is completely and totally irrelevant.


My response:

Well if all you are saying is that AI can't play PG all the time but can play it much of the time, you have flipped your position and you agree with me and I agree with you.

As for AI's career, all it proves is that if a PG is moved to the SG position, there will be people making the logically fallacious argument that, judged by how he plays SG, he would not make a good PG. It is a logical trap, nothing more, nothing less.
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Then that guy complained about my J.R. Smith position:

Starting JR Smith is a horrible choice because he isn't mature enough for it. As a 6th man, he can come in the game and attack, attack and attack some more on offense. All of the great teams have someone like that off their bench and JR is the Nugget best suited for that role.


My answer was:

J.R. Smith is about 2nd in the NBA in the number of 20-point games from off the bench. It's another one of those facts that raises a huge red flag about the management of the Nuggets. It's one thing to have a spark 6th man, it's quite another to be wasting someone who is AHEAD of most starting SGs in points scored per 36 or 48 minutes by not having him start. Smith is alot more than just a spark obviously; sparks other than Ginobili and possibly a couple of other exceptions are no where near Smith's league.

Also, having a truly outstanding spark 6th man is more of a luxury than a necessity, even among the best teams of the West. Ginobili not starting has for a long time been little more than a technicality, since he comes in so quickly and doesn't leave much after he comes in.
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At this point "The obstinate and annoying one" was a lot less obstinate and annoying:

The problem this season is not that Carter starts, it is that Karl plays him too much. This problem becomes worse when Karl fails to recognize the teams that present bad match ups for Carter. The Lakers are one such team.


My response:

Here you are once again very close to agreeing with me. I'd say we are about 60% in agreement if you agree that Iverson does and can play PG effectively, and 40% in agreement if you disagree. Before this, I was thinking you were 0% to at best 20% in agreement.