Although J.R. Smith of the Nuggets plays at a starter's level, and has clearly earned a starting role, he except when the Nuggets are damaged by injuries does not get any starts. Smith must be aware that the fact he doesn't start is supposed to mean that he is not as good a player as are starting 2-guards around the League, including Dahntay Jones! This is not true, but that is what not starting is supposed to mean. As a result, his confidence level is lower than it would be if he were starting. And his confidence level is a major part of the J.R. Smith puzzle to begin with.
Confidence reduction is the worst thing you would want for a player who despite being qualified to start overall, is by nature one of the most inconsistent good players in the NBA. It is an observable fact that basketball players who start are generally more consistent than basketball players who do not start. The way I see it, the main two reasons for that are the more minutes that come with starting and the greater level of confidence instilled in starters as compared with non-starters.
To use an old cliché, if you are a starter, you let the “game come to you” more so than if you are a non-starter. Since they are lower on the roster and therefore under more pressure to get better, many reserve players press more and end up achieving less due to trying too hard on some plays. In the case of J.R. Smith, who ever since he was on the Nuggets has been repeatedly criticized for negatives while having his positives downplayed, the pressing and trying too hard associated with not starting is going to be much worse than usual. Smith practically looks to be just as much of a rookie presser now as he did when he was actually a rookie.
Linas Kleiza is another example of a reserve player who tries too hard from time to time, and ends up producing less than if he just let “the game come to him.” Other players though, such as Chris Andersen, are seemingly oblivious to whether they start or not. As a manager or a coach, you have to know who is who in this respect on your team, and consider this factor in setting your starting lineups.
By refusing to start him and keeping him in a perpetual “trying too hard mode,” the Nuggets are maximizing the inconsistency of Smith and are literally wasting some of the money they are paying him. So much for being economical in the economics emergency. Why would you put unnecessary, extra pressure on an inconsistent, pressing, and sometimes lower confidence player who is qualified to be a starter? This is kind of strange, don’t you think?
Although J.R. Smith is playing more than 27 minutes a game, he is still not a starter. On the one hand, Coach George Karl has substantially relented on his refusal to give Smith starter minutes, but on the other hand, he has still refused to start him. This is strange, don’t you think?
Further, If Dahntay Jones starts in the playoffs, the Nuggets are going to be playing with one hand tied behind their backs, and not only because the Nuggets will be sacrificing dearly at the offensively very important 2-guard position. J.R. Smith is a much better player than Dahntay Jones, although Jones may have a better personality and may be more intelligent.
Recent calculations based on points allowed per minute on the court show that J.R. Smith is actually a substantially better defender these days than Jones. The latest defending sub ratings show J.R. Smith at .409 and Dahntay Jones at .195. No, it may not appear that way, since Smith is both on offense and on defense pressing too much, is inconsistent, and is often not very smooth looking. But the honest truth is that the Nuggets surrender substantially more points per time when Jones is playing than when Smith is playing.
The bottom line is that if the Nuggets lose a playoff series 4 games to 3 or 4 games to 2, a likely reason why will be that Dahntay Jones started over J.R. Smith, which led to Smith not having enough confidence and consistency. It’s strange that a team would hurt itself in this way, don’t you think?
Further, the strategy of trying to get JR Smith to play better by punishing him with reduced minutes has run its course, regardless of whether it ever worked or whether it was counterproductive from day #1. It’s strange that the Nuggets would continue something which either never worked or at least has run it’s course, don’t you think?
All of these things means that there is mystery here as to why JR Smith can not start for the Denver Nuggets. I have a second theory now to add to the main theory.
The main theory remains simply that George Karl continues to detest Smith a lot, especially because he is relatively immature and impulsive, and so is unable to give him the "honor" of starting. To Mr. Karl, there is a lot of honor in basketball, and starting is one of the most powerful honors of all. But if this is true, what about the 27 minutes a game? First, to Karl and others like him, the number of minutes is not as honorable as the number of starts. Second, Mr. Karl may have been ordered to play Smith for at least 25 minutes a game or so by the management of the Nuggets.
But there is another possible theory now.
We start by noting that we know that in the wake of the economics downturn, Nuggets owner Stanley Kroenke was the first NBA owner to become a lot cheaper, and to this day remains among owners one of the most determined to reduce payroll below the NBA’s soft salary cap so as to avoid any luxury tax liability. Players such as Marcus Camby and Eduardo Najera were let go for songs, replaced by players off the waiver wire who command less than a tenth as much money. The draft was practically ignored. In other words, the Nuggets have the misfortune of having an owner who went from being one of the most generous to one of the most preoccupied with and determined to react to the economic meltdown.
Although details of a player's contract are not made public, most of them leak out. About the only details that don’t always leak out are what the incentives are, if there are incentive clauses. These are performance clauses: if the stipulated performance is achieved, the player makes substantially more money.
When J.R. Smith was signed to a 3-year, $16.5 million contract last August, there were incentives put in it. We don't know exactly what they are, but we obviously know they relate to producing more rather than less on the basketball court. Whether or not the number of starts is specifically one of the performance measures involved, we know that number of starts indirectly affects the ability of any player to achieve any performance measure you care to name. And since this incentive is common in contracts that have incentives, it would not surprise me in the least to find out that number of games started is one of the incentives in the Smith contract.
Now given that the economic downturn keeps getting worse rather than better, since Mr. Kroenke is being joined by more and more NBA owners with respect to becoming cheaper, and since Mr. Kroenke, as one of the wealthiest business persons in the world has more to lose than almost anyone, we have to consider the possibility that J.R. Smith is not starting for financial reasons. Specifically, Mr. Kroenke may have quietly ordered Coach George Karl to not start J.R. Smith no matter what, or perhaps unless he became one of the best three or four 2-guards in the League, which is too tall an order even for Smith, especially since he is, you will remember, trying too hard.
If such an order came down from on high, it would have been music to Mr. Karl's ears.
When Smith doesn’t start, he most likely is not going to make the extra money mentioned in the incentive clauses of his contract. This may mean several million dollars of savings for the economically battered Mr. Kroenke, from pay Smith doesn’t get and from avoided luxury tax.
So if the Nuggets lose their playoff series that they are supposed to win, for example, against Houston with no Tracy McGrady, against Phoenix with no Amare Stoudemire, or against Utah with no Carlos Boozer, it may be just as much the fault of Stanley Kroenke and the economics meltdown as it is the fault of George Karl.
Whether it’s George Karl refusing to look at J.R. Smith as anything other than a black sheep, whether it’s the owner more or less in a panic regarding the economic meltdown, or both, it does not reflect well on the Nuggets franchise. Can you be cheap toward your black sheep and still be considered a serious NBA franchise that can contend in the playoffs? No, you can not. And even more importantly, you can not afford to have a black sheep in the first place.
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