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Sunday, February 15, 2009

Fast Break: One of the World's Top Basketball Writers Agrees with me on the Nuggets: They are not Going to win a Playoff Series

David Friedman is the or close to the most prolific basketball writer in the world. He covers just about every pro basketball subject from a to z at one time or another. Recently, I spotted an article of his that discusses the aftermath of the Iverson-Billups trade. Check out how he agrees with me regarding the Nuggets:

What about the Nuggets? It is important to understand that the idea that Billups has "transformed the culture" in Denver is, at the very least, unproven. The Nuggets were a good team when Iverson played for them but they were not an elite team -- and it is premature to suggest that the Nuggets have suddenly become an elite team this season.


And:

Individually, Billups is certainly playing well but he is hardly doing anything that is significantly outside of his career norms: his shooting percentages from the field, three-point range and the free-throw line are all right around his career averages, while his scoring average has increased (from 17.0 ppg last season to 18.9 ppg) largely because he is attempting a couple more shots per game. It is also worth remembering that injuries slowed him down in the playoffs in recent seasons, which is undoubtedly part of the reason that the Pistons were willing to part ways with him; Iverson is a year older than Billups but has averaged more regular season mpg during his career (41.6 to 32.0) without showing any signs of breaking down physically.


And:

On the other hand, it is not nearly so clear what the Nuggets are doing. It may be exciting for Denver fans to temporarily be near the top of the West but the Nuggets probably will not maintain that status by the end of the season. More than likely, they will once again be a first-round playoff casualty if they don't stay in the top four in the standings, so after all of the hoopla about "changing the culture" the Nuggets will probably not go any further with Billups than they did with Iverson.

Last summer, they cut costs by shipping Marcus Camby to the Clippers while getting essentially nothing in return; Camby currently ranks second in the league in rebounding and blocked shots. Meanwhile, Billups' contract lasts two more seasons (plus a team option for 2011-12), so the Nuggets will not be able to significantly upgrade their roster any time soon. Are the Nuggets slashing costs to save money/rebuild or are they trying to win now? It seems most likely that they will get caught in the middle with a roster that is good enough to fight for a playoff spot but not really good enough to contend for a championship.

It will be very interesting to see what people are saying about this trade and these teams in a couple years -- or even as soon as this summer, if the Nuggets do not make a good playoff run.


FULL ARTICLE

When I was just starting out with basketball writing a few years ago, I once had an argument with this writer, David Friedman, that went on for hours and hours. Aside from defending Carmelo Anthony, I was testing whether I was really interested in basketball writing, and whether I could go blow for blow with one of the best. I was and I did.

However, it's practically the only argument I've ever had that I've had to subsequently admit to being wrong about. I argued that Carmelo Anthony was "an elite player," and he argued that he was not. The subsequent months have proven him to be correct, since Anthony has decided to not use all of his talents and to allow himself to be micro-managed by Mr. George Karl and company. Indeed, I just yesterday posted the report "Carmelo Anthony Has Been Downsized Thanks to George Karl"!

Generally, at first I was usually bored to death reading Mr. Friedman, but in recent months I have taken a second look, and he's not so boring anymore now that he's been right so often. And he does do a lot more than just what are to me boring historical references and articles.

While I think he has hit it out of the park with respect to the Nuggets, I can't agree with some of the statements Friedman makes about the Pistons in this article. For example, he unfortunately doesn't understand why Iverson was asked to change his game by the Pistons. It wasn't because the Pistons wanted him to be like Chauncey Billups. Come on, does that make any sense? No, the reason the Pistons asked him to change a little is because they want him to be a team wolf rather than a lone wolf.



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