J.R. Smith ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation & 2007-08 Outlook

Here is the Hollinger ESPN J.R. Smith 2006-07 evaluation and 2007-08 outlook. Nuggets 1 will, of course, have a response soon.

J.R. Smith

2006-07 season: Stolen from the Hornets before the season, Smith showed both tremendous talent and tremendous immaturity in his third pro season, and those two forces still appear locked in a duel to decide which will direct the rest of his career. For the first two months he was outstanding, but seemed to lose his mojo after earning a 10-game suspension for having the temerity to let New York's Mardy Collins tackle him from behind on a layup attempt.

After that point, the trade for Allen Iverson cut heavily into his minutes, and Smith didn't seem to adjust as well to coming off the pine. He was even worse in the playoffs, drawing the ire of coach George Karl for his ill-chosen shots and dawdling defense.

But if you just take a step back and look at his season as a whole, Smith did pretty darn well. He averaged 22.1 points per 40 minutes, one of the best rates in the league, and improved his shooting percentage by focusing on taking open 3s rather than the contested 2s he was launching as a Hornet. Smith hit 39 percent from downtown, helping loosen up defenses used to sagging with impunity against Denver. He finished with the 9th-best true shooting percentage among shooting guards and ranked 20th in player efficiency rating.

Scouting report: Smith plays like he learned everything about defense from watching Carmelo Anthony. He's great in the passing lanes, but his effort comes and goes and if he did any more cherry-picking he'd be eligible for agricultural subsidies. For somebody who doesn't play much D he also fouled quite a bit, ranking 13th among shooting guards in fouls per minute -- he'll have to ease up on the reaching when he's defending good players.

Offensively, Smith is reminiscent of the Wolves' Ricky Davis, but with far more shooting range. He has one of the best strokes in the game already and should only get better with more practice and experience. He's a good foul shooter, too, and should learn how to use his body to draw fouls when he penetrates. In addition to the shooting, Smith is an explosive finisher in transition; however, his off-the-dribble game in the halfcourt needs work.

2007-08 outlook: This is a huge year for Smith. He's playing for a new contract and needs to show that he can be trusted to get through a season without having any meltdowns; the past two campaigns haven't helped him in that regard. Karl has already shown more patience with him than he has with many other young players, but he'll have to have an incident-free season to keep his rotation spot.

If he behaves, though, it's hard not be excited about his potential. Smith is playing in a system that is virtually guaranteed to generate lots of wide-open 3s for him, and if he plays with even a modicum of passion he's likely to get plenty of minutes because the Nuggets are thin in the backcourt. If you're looking for a sleeper candidate for the Sixth Man award, you could do a lot worse than this guy.

Most similar at age: Kobe Bryant