Chucky Atkins ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Chucky Atkins 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for the Nuggets 1 response to appear next.

Chucky Atkins

2006-07 season: A few years ago, I came up with something called the "fluke rule" to describe players having a season that was way over their heads who were destined to come back to Earth. I hardly could think of a better example of this rule in action than Atkins in Memphis last season.

The three characteristics of a fluke rule year are (1) a player aged 28 or older, (2) having a player efficiency rating of at least 14, and (3) having his PER increase by 3.00 or more from the previous season. These players, as a group, see their PER decrease the next season by almost exactly 3.00, with the correction being less sharp for 28-year-olds than their older brethren.

In 2005-06, for example, three players qualified for the fluke rule - Mike James, Chauncey Billups and Alonzo Mourning. All three saw their PERs decline sharply, especially James.

Well, Atkins was this year's Mike James. Stuck on a dead-end team and playing for a new contract -- much as James was a year earlier -- Atkins blew away his previous career bests in several categories despite being 32 years old. His PER of 17.45 was more than four points better than he'd done in any other NBA season; his shooting percentage was his best in six years; and his scoring rate of 19.1 points per 40 minutes shattered his previous best of 16.8, which was set half a decade earlier.

And as a result, he's one of the main standouts of this year's fluke rule team (see chart). Seven players qualified, and based on history we should expect at least six of those seven to see performance declines this season. The two 28-year-olds, Devin Brown and Jamaal Tinsley, should expect to have the least steep declines (especially Brown, who only made the birthday cutoff by 48 hours); Tim Duncan's decline also should be less steep because he had achieved that level of performance two years earlier -- the "fluke", in his case, might be the off year in 2006-07.

But the others should see their PERs decline by three or more points in 2007-08. Unlike in past years, this seems to have been priced into the market. New Jersey wouldn't commit to Moore and ultimately Sacramento signed him (though at a somewhat extravagant price); Patterson and Brown got little interest on the free-agent market; and Armstrong may be replaced despite his resurgence last year.

That had an impact upon Atkins, too -- his stellar play only got him a two-year deal for less than the midlevel exception. Perhaps that's because he toiled in such a backwater all season -- as did everyone on this list besides Duncan -- but it's still refreshing to see.

Scouting report: Because of his size, Atkins tends to struggle at the defensive end, especially when matched up against bigger guards. Although he can make up for some of his (literal) shortcomings with veteran savvy and still-decent quickness, that weakness could be a bigger liability with the Nuggets because he'll be paired with the 6-0 Allen Iverson. He's also a poor rebounder who had the fifth-worst rebound rate in basketball last year.

However, he's a deadly shooter (37.0 percent on 3s for his career) who ranked fourth among point guards in true shooting percentage, and he also protects the ball -- he had the eighth-best turnover ratio at the position. The latter was no fluke either; he's consistently among the leaders in that category.

And he's not just a jump shooter either -- Atkins showed enough speed to get to the rim. In fact, he did that more than ever last season. In the previous two years, just under 30 percent of Atkins' shots came near the basket; last season it was 41.1 percent.

2007-08 outlook: Atkins signed a two-year, $6.6 million deal with Denver in the offseason and will likely be the team's starting point guard. The Nuggets were in desperate need of shooting, and he provides an inexpensive long-range bomber to make opponents pay for doubling Carmelo Anthony and Iverson. It also saves them millions in comparison to holdover Steve Blake, who was looking for more money and ended up signing with Portland, because of the luxury tax implications.

Although Atkins is unlikely to repeat his effort in Memphis a year ago, the Nuggets will be happy if he can replicate his performance of two years earlier as a Laker. That season he took advantage of all the attention on Kobe Bryant to hit 38.7 percent on 3-pointers and average 13.6 points per game; if he does that here the Nuggets can knock a big item off their checklist.

Most similar at age: Dana Barros