Carmelo Anthony ESPN 2006-2007 Evaluation & 2007-2008 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Carmelo Anthony 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for a Nuggets 1 response, probably within 24 hours.

CARMELO ANTHONY ESPN EVALUATION & OUTLOOK

2006-07 season: Opposing defenses can't stop Carmelo Anthony, but one wonders if Allen Iverson might. 'Melo mellowed after the midseason trade for The Answer, losing four points off his scoring average and a third of his assists in games after the All-Star break. Of course, it's dangerous to confuse correlation with causation. Other factors were at play here -- most notably the 15-game ban he got for his pathetic slap-and-run maneuver in a midseason brawl with the Knicks.

Additionally, he was stellar in the playoffs, averaging 26.8 points on 48 percent shooting against the league's best team. Overall, Iverson may have had little to do with Anthony's late-season struggles, but until he has another stretch like the one with which he began the year, people will keep asking the question.

For the season, Anthony's "big picture" stats were all better than the previous campaign -- he added about a point, a rebound and an assist to his 40 minute averages. But his player efficiency rating barely moved because he committed more turnovers and his true shooting percentage went down a bit.

The biggest issue is Anthony's fondness for shooting long jumpers. He's not particularly good from this range and shouldn't be taking these shots unless he's wide open. More than a quarter of his shots were long 2s, but he only made 38 percent. He also tried more than two 3-pointers a game, but made just 26.8 percent.

The left side of the floor, in particular, gave him problems. Anthony only made 31 percent on 2-point attempts from that side of the floor, one of the worst rates in the league. He hadn't shown any disparity the previous two seasons, so it's possible this was a fluke.

Scouting report: A gifted scorer with incredible instincts around the basket, Anthony is among the league's toughest covers. He's big and knows how to use his body in the post, but has the quickness and dribbling skill of a much smaller player. Too often he settles for a jab move and then a quick jumper, but when he's offensively aggressive few defenders can keep him under wraps. His other weakness is handling the ball in the open court, as he tends to carry the ball when he tries to make a crossover move.

Not surprisingly, this has led to more frequent double-teaming, but Anthony has become better at passing out of the double and finding the open man. Putting better shooters around him would undoubtedly increase his assist totals and give him more space to operate, something the Nuggets have tried to do in the offseason.

Anthony is also good in transition, though it's hard not to be when you give yourself a five-second head start on the field. His defensive effort has improved since his rookie year but it's not like it could have gotten worse, and the cherry-picking is just one sign of his tenuous commitment to that end. Also, too often he gambles instead of playing straight-up defense and forcing opponents to shoot over his 6-8 frame. He gets beaten off the ball quite a bit, too, although he holds his own on the boards.

2007-08 outlook: The projections have Anthony finishing second in per-minute scoring behind Kobe Bryant, but the addition of Iverson may change the nature of Anthony's output. It's possible he'll shoot a higher percentage on fewer shots this year, especially if the Nuggets' efforts to add shooting help bear fruit.

The upshot should be the same though -- his first All-Star appearance and another showing near the top of the league scoring leaders. If he can add some defense to that package and subtract a few contested 17-footers, we're looking at a true superstar, and since he's only 23 there's a very good chance he'll get there.

Most similar at age: Kobe Bryant