See the additional editorial notes at the end for more details about late postings and how they are not going to be a problem any longer.
FROM APRIL 19 2009
For Carmelo Anthony 20 ppg is not "getting his". Getting his would be 25 ppg minimum in the playoffs.
Ask the Cavaliers whether they would be happy with LeBron getting, say, 21ppg. Or the Heat whether they would be happy with Wade getting 20 ppg in the playoffs. No, they would be horrified, basically.
Although it is theoretically possible to win in the playoffs without any player who can score 25 ppg, it is much more difficult to coordinate that and achieve that.
Yes, two years ago, 2007, was the one and only series when C. Anthony did what he is capable of doing in the playoffs, which should be just about what he is capable of doing in the regular season, just like any star NBA player.
And I'll take the opportunity here to go further on this. There is a lot of evidence that Carmelo Anthony has discovered and knows for sure that Karl is not someone who really knows what he is doing when it comes to playoff offensive basketball. Consider some of this evidence:
1. In the 2008 Lakers series, Anthony shouted at Karl during game 3 of the Lakers blowout, saying "Don't just sit there, do something!" And he informed the press that the Nuggets had "quit" after the game, clearly leaving the impression that it was at least partly Karl's fault and that he had lost confidence in Karl.
Although the general public was unable to read the hints that Melo was dropping, Karl himself did, because he defensively stated that Melo made the ripping comments he did simply because he was upset. (Upset people say stupid things, you know, laugh out loud.) Well Mr. Karl, not exactly. sometimes upset people are right on the money.
2. In the February 2009 game in Indiana, he refused to come out of a game, obviously thinking that Karl was wrong to be taking him out in favor of the bumbling Linas Kleiza very late 3rd quarter when the Nuggets were leading but only by about half a dozen. As is starting to happen more and more, Melo was proved to be correct and Karl wrong: the Nuggets went on to lose the game. For good measure, they lost the next game too, with little chance to win due to Melo being suspended from that game for disobeying the mighty George Karl. Laugh out loud at that incident.
3. C Anthony, since shortly before the All Star Game, abandoned his subscribing to Karl's orders to become a "more well rounded player". This is the kind of hidden story that a writer who has specialized in a particular team can pick up on, but that will remain a secret to the general public. Since just before the All Star break, Melo more or less went back to the way he used to play the game offensively, before he reduced his shooting in favor of more assisting and especially more rebounding. As a result, his ppg in late February-mid April is much higher than before that. (Defensively he's still trying to be better than before I believe).
At the same time the new Melo changed back to the original Melo, Chauncey Billups went into a bad shooting slump. This would be nothing more than a coincidence so far as I can figure right now. Billups' shooting percentage has declined to just about to .400, with his three point shot missing in action. So the interesting thing about the Nuggets offensively this season is that there were really two versions of it: the one totally dominated by Billups, and then the one where J.R. Smith and especially Carmelo Anthony play the most important roles.
The very interesting thing is: which Nuggets offense will show up for the Hornets series? You would have to say most likely it will be the one that they have used since mid-February, which is fine with me as someone who wants the Hornets to win, because if you don't have to worry much about Billups, then you can shut down either Anthony or Smith (but unfortunately not both) as needed.
But getting back to Melo in the playoffs... My prediction is that Anthony will not follow Karl's "well rounded player" mumbo jumbo in this Hornets series, that he will go all out to average at least 25 ppg.
It will be very interesting to see how all of this plays out in this series. This Nuggets thing is like a complicated fiction story now; you don't know what the ending is going to be.
As someone who predicted that Karl can not win a playoff series though, the shift in the Nuggets' offense is also worrying. Because the late season Nuggets are more versatile and explosive than the early season Nuggets. With the early season Nuggets, you could just key in on Chauncey Billups and depend on Melo to be non-aggressive in his shooting and you had a clear path for winning a series.
If the Hornets play the New Nuggets (featuring the old Melo) things play out differently from if it was all Billups all the time. If C Anthony does go against Karl's teachings and goes for 25 ppg or better, and if J.R. Smith is even 3/4 as good in the playoffs as in the regular, the Nuggets will be very tough to beat, even if Billups is not all that good.
FROM APRIL 19 2009
Someone named NIH wrote:
Thing is, Melo has always had capable scorers on the roster. Where as DWade and LeBron are both ''the man'', Melo has had Iverson, J.R, and now Billups. All three are capable scorers who can go off at any time. In fact, I'd almost welcome Melo trying to carry the Nugz taking away touches from Billups and Smith, the Nuggets are built on balance and the Hornets would certainly win if they did not have it.
I responded:
Well we are right now discussing one of the most interesting and important things about this series which by the way, I'm thinking is the most interesting first round series of them all. In theory the Nuggets are designed to win regular season games whereas the Hornets are custom made for winning playoff games.
As someone who wants Karl to lose yet another series, I'm not sure whether I want Melo to try to carry the Nugz or not. Looking at the late season Melo explosion, I don't want it. But looking at the Melo playoff record, and how good a coach Byron Scott is at dealing with someone like Melo, I do want it. So I can't decide for sure which Melo I want, laugh out loud. Melo might go all out but fall short of what's needed due to the relatively solid Hornets defense.
In total there are two yes/no variables (Melo goes all out or not, and he performs offensively in the playoff series or not). So in total there are four possibilities.
To me, a player who can score a lot of points, who has a track record of scoring efficiently, who decides that he wants to aggressively score, and who takes responsibility for keeping his shooting percentage up and his shot selection smart, is big time crucial for winning a playoff series.
You want to also have offensive balance, obviously, but at the same time you need that one player who rises above the balance and can get done the extra scoring that wins a lot of playoff games. To me it's not an either or; I want the offense to be both balanced but also to have that one guy. Yes, it's possible to win playoff games with balance only, but more difficult and trickier to do it that way.
George Karl clearly thinks that it should be balance at all costs, that no one player should be the "primary scorer". I disagree. I think but I'm not sure that Anthony disagrees with Karl too right now. What Melo thinks about what we are discussing, and whether he will have his 2nd good playoff series out of six, will soon be revealed in this series.
========== Editorial Notes ==========
--The above was written in late April, 2009.
--As promised, we are finally posting material written and posted on forums in the spring. Obviously, if you have your own site, you should be posting at least simultaneously on your own site when you for whatever reason post elsewhere. But there has been a bad habit of not doing so, a bad habit that is being beaten down due to new content sharing regulations that have teeth.
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