Fast Break: Will the Nuggets Make the Playoffs After Billups for Iverson?

The more common things you hear about the trade, what you might call "the party line," are:

1. The Nuggets benefit more than the Pistons do in the short term.
2. The Pistons benefit more than the Nuggets do in the long term.

When you go beneath those headlines, what you find is that the majority of the majority saying those two things are people who think that Allen Iverson's alleged "score first mentality" is (a) generally bad for his team and (b) disqualifies him from being the designated point guard.

I don't even fully concede the premise, which is that he has a "score first mentality." I think that used to be true, but I just discovered more proof just today, to go along with his 2008 news conferences, that shows that the 2008 Iverson mentality is more of a "win first mentality" than a "score first mentality".

But even if I conceded the premise, I would not agree with the conclusions: (a) and (b) above. A score first mentality guard who is a point guard and a shooting guard at the same time no matter what you do can still be made to work as long as you do not hose up the point guard position by disrespecting it, as the Nuggets completely and hopelessly did.

With respect to Iverson's score first mentality being generally bad for his team, I have written extensively for more than a year now about what the Nuggets (or any decent or good team) needed to do to solve the dilemma and to allow for Iverson to work out on their team. They didn't do any of the things I knew they needed to do. So they flunked out and, realizing they were going nowhere, they got rid of Iverson.

With regard to (b) that Iverson is disqualified from being a designated point guard: here we are living in an age when one of the highest scoring point guards in history brought his team to within 1 game of the Western Finals, yet people are still saying that over and over and over again like zombies. For the umpteenth time, it is not true that a guard who can score a lot of points is a guard who is disqualified from being the point guard. You just have to use your brain to set up your offense in particular and the role of the point guard in particular in such a way that works out with a high scoring point guard. This is something that the Pistons managers seem to know how to do, though it is too early to assume they will completely succeed.

So most of the people who are bowing down to the Nuggets and saying they will now make the playoffs are saying it only because of those false beliefs regarding high scoring point guards in general and an older Allen Iverson in particular. So does that mean that they are wrong, and the Nuggets will not actually make the playoffs even after the trade?

Yes, they are most likely wrong. There are 7 teams that are locks or virtual locks for the playoffs in the West:

1. Lakers
2. Rockets
3. Jazz
4. Hornets
5. Spurs
6. Mavericks
7. Suns

None of those teams have perfect point guards, perfect centers, or perfect anything else, but I would do 100 back flips on the lawn at midnight if I caught any of them disrespecting and hosing up the point guard or the center position.

The following teams will be scrambling for the 8th and final playoff spot:

1. Blazers
2. Clippers
3. Warriors
4. Nuggets

Other West Teams
1. Timberwolves
Thunder
Grizzlies
Kings

There is a slight possibility that the Suns will collapse and fall out of the playoffs, but I would not spend any time on that slight possibility right now. Even if the Spurs or Mavericks tank, they are still virtual locks for the playoffs. So most likely the Nuggets are just 1 of 4 teams battling for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West this year. (Wow, for how many years now has that been about true or exactly true?)

My prediction right now is that the Blazers will get the last spot, but that all depends on how many games Greg Oden plays. If he's out half the year or more, all bets are off.

The Clippers are off to a bad start but don't let that fool you. They are going to finish at least a game ahead of the Nuggets in my view. I even see the Warriors finishing ahead of the Nuggets.

Since this is just a fast break, I'm not going to describe how I think the Billups offense will pan out here; this is too long for a fast break already.

So why is it that I have the Nuggets 11th in the West and many others have them 8th?

1. As explained in some detail already, there is a lot about Iverson and how Iverson on the Nuggets was botched that those who are saying 8th and a playoff do not understand.
2. A good chunk of those same people are also saying that the removal of Marcus Camby from the Nuggets does not make the Nuggets any worse defensively, and may even make them better, especially if the Nuggets practice hard on defense, as they are. I shot this hope down in the game 1 (Jazz) game report. It's just wishful thinking.
3. Most of them are assuming that J.R. Smith will start and play at least 30 minutes per game, when neither is all that likely. Plus even if he does get that, no one disputes that his court thinking is still going to be kind of immature this year. Leave Smith in at the end of close games and you are cruising for a bruising.
4. The Nuggets are getting a sympathy vote. Some of them quite frankly are probably secretly feeling sorry for the bumbling Nuggets, who spent tens of millions of dollars to try to get a World Class team and now find themselves heading who knows how far south in the standings. So they are saying that the Nuggets will make the playoffs, but they don't really and truly think they will.

So I feel confident right at this time saying that the Nuggets will not make the playoffs. The Nuggets need some key injuries on several teams to be able to slip in.

Editorial Note: Please be aware that a "Fast Break" is a short and quick preview of some of the topics that will be explored and proved in more detail in upcoming regular reports. Fast Breaks will often reappear in full reports with only minor reediting, but there will be more important details, more evidence, and more implications and explanations in the full reports. Moreover, there will be topics that never appear in any Fast Break in a full Report.

Fast Breaks are especially useful for the first few days after major news breaks. They are also very useful for people who will seldom or never have enough time to read a full Game/Team/League Report. Fast Breaks are the type of article that more typical web logs feature almost all or all of the time.