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Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Game Preview: Nov. 7: Nuggets at Celtics

NOTE: I'll use 2006-07 stats for the Nuggets for the first 5 games of the season. So starting with the next game, I'll switch to the 2007-08 stats.

KEY
POS. NO. PLAYER
HEIGHT WEIGHT
PPG RPG APG (Points, Rebounds, & Assists Per Game)
RECENT HIGHLIGHTS

NUGGETS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward 15 Carmelo Anthony
6-8, 230
2006-07: 28.9 6.0 3.8
Had nine assists at New York on 11/6, his most since having a career-high-tying 10 at Milwaukee on 2/10/07.


Power Forward #4 Kenyon Martin
6-9, 240
2006-07: 14.8 7.4 2.2
Recorded 3+ blocks in two of his three appearances this season, including four vs. New Orleans on 11/4.


Center #23 Marcus Camby
6-11, 235
2006-07: 11.2 11.7 3.2
Has collected 10+ rebounds in the first four games of the regular season for the first time as a Denver Nugget.


Shooting Guard #43 Linas Kleiza
6-8, 235
2006-07: 7.6 3.4 0.6
Started his first game of the season at New York on 11/6, scoring a season-high-tying 18 points on 8-13 shooting.


Point Guard 3 Allen Iverson
6-0, 165
2006-07: 24.8 3.0 7.2
Topped the 30-point mark for the first time this season with 32 points (13-22 FG) at New York on 11/6.


CELTICS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward #34 Paul Pierce
6’7” 235
2007-08: 20.5 5.0 5.0
In 85 minutes so far this seasion, Pierce has scored 41 points, and has had 10 rebounds and 10 assists.


Power Forward #5 Kevin Garnett
6’11” 253
2007-08: 22.5 16.5 5.5
In 82 minutes so far this season, Garnett has 45 points, 33 rebounds, and 11 assists.


Center #43 Kendrick Perkins
6’10” 280
2007-08: 5.5 5.5 0.5
In 54 minutes so far this season, Perkins has 11 points, 11 rebounds, and an assist.



Shooting Guard #20 Ray Allen
6’5” 205
2007-08: 25.0 4.0 1.0
In 88 minutes so far this season, Allen has 50 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists.


Point Guard #9 Rajon Rondo
6’1” 171
2007-08: 8.5 2.0 2.0
In 60 minutes so far this season, Rondo has 17 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists.



NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

OUT: Anthony Carter suffered a 3rd metacarpal fracture on his right hand and underwent successful surgery on 10/10. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks
OUT: Chucky Atkins suffered a severe right groin strain at Phoenix on 10/25 and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.
QUESTIONABLE: Mike Wilks suffered a right hamstring strain vs. New Orleans on 11/4 and did not play at New York on 11/6. He is considered questionable for tonight’s game.

CELTICS INJURY REPORT:

NO INJURIES REPORTED

ON THE AIR:
Tonight’s game will be televised on Altitude 2 with Chris Marlowe and Scott Hastings handling the telecast. The game will be broadcast on KKFN AM 950, with Jerry Schemmel doing the play-by-play and Jason Kosmicki hosting the studio courtside.

KEY MATCHUPS:

SG J.R. Smith vs Ray Allen
The sports media world shows J.R. Smith as the clear starter at the 2-spot, so I’ll overrule the Nugget’s coaches and show him in the slot rather than Yakhouba Diawara or Linas Kleiza or Von Wafer or Bobby Jones. 13-year man Allen is off to a blazing start. He has made 9/16 threes and 16/26 shots already for 50 points in two games. J.R. Smith has played 23 minutes so far and is 2/6, with all 6 shots being threes. If Smith could be the first to make Allen miss a few, perhaps by getting 2 or 3 steals, it would go a long way toward giving the Nuggets the possibility of a big upset. Don’t hold your breath.

SF Carmelo Anthony vs Paul Pierce
No longer the Boston superstar without a prayer, Pierce is cruising for a Championship now that Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen have boarded the Celtic's ship. Anthony had big expectations for this season coming in, but has come up short relative to his normal for two straight games and that, combined with the Nugget’s lack of a system, are the biggest reasons the Nuggets have lost 2 straight. Melo is going to have to make up for some of the drubbing the Nuggets are going to take at PF by Kevin Garnett. As he gets used to the luxury of having Garnett up front, Pierce has had a relatively slow start shooting wise. But that problem is no longer the big problem it used to be for the Celtics, with Garnett cleaning up at the hoop. If Melo is double teamed, the challenge will become the ability of Melo to find the open man and the ability of that open man to score.

NUGGET'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Run some set plays. The Nuggets are not a running team until J.R. Smith is back in gear, and until Von Wafer or Bobby Jones are playing at the same time as Smith and Melo. Smith-Wafer-Melo would constitute a running team. Iverson @46 minutes-Kleiza-Melo does not constitute a running team.

Stop relying on Iverson and Camby to rescue the Nuggets from every single problem on offense and defense respectively. Iverson is one of the best guards in history but he can’t solve by himself every single problem you have on your basketball team. Get realistic and rest Iverson for at least 6 minutes a game until one of the point guards comes back and at least 10 minutes a game after that. Melo or Wafer can play the point a little if Wilks is still out.

Tell Camby, Nene, and Martin to avoid shooting contested jumpers for this game. Camby, Nene, and Kenyon Martin should be penetrating and shooting layups in this game, because getting Garnett in foul trouble may be the only chance the Nuggets have to score an upset here. And second chance cleanup layups and dunks are also going to be critical for the Nuggets to have a chance

CELTIC'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Have a balanced attack. The Nuggets can be burned from inside or from the perimeter these days, so mix it up to do the most damage. Boston doesn’t need me to tell them to have a varied attack; they already are using one of the best outside-inside mixed offenses in the NBA.

Double team Melo or A.I.. Start with double teaming Melo and continue with that unless A.I. is having a huge game and Melo is not, in which case start double teaming A.I.. Also, go for steals against both of them.

One of the most obvious keys you will ever see: Have Garnett pound inside for scores and layups. Neither Nene nor Kenyon Martin are at 100%, whereas Garnett is, so it is likely to get ugly for the Nuggets in the defensive paint again. A possession where Garnett settles for a short jumper is mostly a wasted possession. Knock the Nuggets out early and enjoy garbage time in the 4th quarter.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS
The Celtics should win this game easily. The only way the Nuggets can compete is if they get a huge night from a couple of key players. For example, if J.R. Smith and Carmelo Anthony were to combine for 8/15 on threes, and Kleiza and Najera were to add a few, that might be enough to give the Nuggets a chance. Or if Kenyon Martin, Nene, and Camby were able to slow down Garnett and Ray Allen was off in his shooting. It would be a big upset if the Nuggets were to win. The Celtics have what I call a double home court advantage. They are at home and they are rested, whereas the Nuggets are playing on back to back nights. To top it off, the Celtics have no injuries at all to deal with right now on their roster. So even if the Nuggets were not reeling from three point guard injuries and two power forward rehabs in progress, the Celtics would be favored. When you combine the personnel problems with the Nugget’s lack of effective strategies, it all points to an ugly game and the need to get out of town without any more injuries major or minor. The Nuggets have all the trouble they can handle right now, and probably more than they can handle. Oh well, if we get a lot of garbage time, we finally get to see Bobby Jones, Von Wafer, and Steve Hunter in a regular season game, and J.R. Smith will have a lot more time for rust removal.

DON'T TICK ME OFF MORE THAN USUAL GK
Get all starters except J.R. Smith out of the game for all garbage time. Most likely, obviously, the garbage time would be caused by the Celtics having an insurmountable lead.