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Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Game Preview: Nov. 14: Trailblazers at Nuggets

KEY FOR STARTERS
Position Number Name
Height Weight
PPG RPG APG FG% (Points, Rebounds, & Assists Per Game, Field Goal Shooting %)
Recent Highlights

NUGGETS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward 15 Carmelo Anthony
6-8, 230
2007-08: 25.8 5.1 5.4 .445
Has scored 10+ points in 138-straight games, which ranks as the second-longest active streak in the NBA. Recorded his first double-double of the season with 32 points and 10 rebounds at Indiana on 11/10.


Power Forward #4 Kenyon Martin
6-9, 240
2007-08: 7.7 5.3 0.3 .429
Has tallied five or more rebounds in six of his seven appearances this season, despite averaging just 22.1 mpg. Pulled down a season-high-tying seven rebounds while playing a season-high 27 minutes at Indiana on 11/10.


Center #23 Marcus Camby
6-11, 235
2007-08: 10.4 14.0 3.3 .507
His 3.3 apg average currently leads all NBA centers so far this season, as does his 1.73 assist-to-turnover ratio. With five blocks at Indiana on 11/10, Denver is now 3-0 this year when he has 5+ blocks (33-7 since 2005-06).


Shooting Guard #5 Yakhouba Diawara
6-7, 225
2007-08: 4.6 1.6 1.0 .500
Is 5-1 as a starter so far this season (.833), after going just 8-11 (.421) in his 19 starts as a rookie last season. Topped 10+ points for the second time this season with 11 points in 11 minutes at Indiana on 11/10.


Point Guard #3 Allen Iverson
6-0, 165
2007-08: 25.6 3.4 8.1 .458
Scored a season-high 37 points while shooting .700 (14-20) from the field vs. Cleveland on 11/12. Denver improved to an impressive 13-1 all-time when Iverson has a double-double with their win at Indiana.

TRAILBLAZERS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward # 8 Martell Webster
6-7 235
2007-08: 13.3 4.6 1.6 .452
LAST GAME: Notched a career-high nine rebounds to go with five points and two assists in 36 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Counts two 20-point games ... Shooting 45.2% from the floor and leads team with 13 3-pointers ... Ranks third on team at 13.3 points per game.


Power Forward #12 LaMarcus Aldridge
6-11 240
2007-08: 19.6 8.0 0.6 .518
LAST GAME: Netted second double-double with 22 points (9-16 FG) and 10 boards in 37 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Tied a career high with 30 points Nov. 9 vs. Memphis ... Ranks among NBA leaders with 19.6 points and 8.0 rebounds ... Scored 20-plus four times.


Center #44 Channing Frye
6-11 245
2007-08: 5.1 4.1 0.9 .487
LAST GAME: Totaled six points, four rebounds, one assist and one steal in 19 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Recorded season-highs of eight points, seven rebounds Nov. 7 vs. New Orleans ... Is averaging 5.1 points and 4.1 rebounds per contest


Shooting Guard #7 Brandon Roy
6-6 211
2007-08: 20.6 3.0 5.3 .513
LAST GAME: Tallied 20 points (9-16 FG), three rebounds, one assist and one steal in 37 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Scored 20-plus five times ... Leads team with 20.6 points per game ... Tallied a career high 32 points Nov. 10 vs. Dallas


Point Guard #2 Steve Blake
6-3 172
2007-08: 5.0 3.1 6.1 .417
LAST GAME: Dished out a team-high eight assists to go with one point, two rebounds and one turnover in 19 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Ranks No. 1 in the NBA with a 6.14 assists-to-turnover ratio ... Is averaging a team-best 6.1 assists per game.

TEAM STATS COMPARED

Points Per Game:
Denver...108.1
Portland..95.1

Field Goal Accuracy
Denver....468
Portland..478

Rebounds Per Game:
Denver....44.6
Portland..40.9

Assists Per Game:
Denver....24.0
Portland..20.9

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

OUT: Anthony Carter suffered a 3rd metacarpal fracture on his right hand and underwent successful surgery on 10/10. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks
OUT: Chucky Atkins suffered a severe right groin strain at Phoenix on 10/25 and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.
OUT: Nene suffered a torn ulner collateral ligament in his left thumb at Boston on 11/7 and underwent successful surgery on 11/9. He is expected to miss six weeks.
PROBABLE: Mike Wilks suffered a right hamstring strain vs. New Orleans on 11/4 and has missed each of the last five games. He is considered probable for tonight’s game.

TRAILBLAZERS INJURY REPORT:

OUT: Josh McRoberts-left ankle
OUT: Darius Miles-right knee
OUT: Greg Oden-right knee
DAY TO DAY: James Jones-left knee is day-to-day.

ON THE AIR:

Tonight’s game will be televised on Altitude with Chris Marlowe calling the action and Scott Hastings providing analysis. The game will also be broadcast on KKFN AM 950, with Jerry Schemmel doing the play-by-play and Jason Kosmicki hosting the studio courtside.

KEY MATCHUPS:

SG J.R. Smith vs Brandon Roy J.R. Smith finally had the kind of breakout game he had often a year ago, but his defense is not going to be good enough against Roy. Let's just hope that Smith does not overreact to Roy, lose his cool, and start turning it over a alot, start getting alot of fouls, and/or start taking a bunch of wild shots. Smith should continue to mix up drives and long range shots. It's Karl's job to get the right defender on Roy at all times; Diawara and Bobby Jones will do a much better job than Smith.

PF Kenyon Martin vs LaMarcus Aldridge With Oden out, Aldridge is the front court mainstay for the Blazers. He can score, he is an alright rebounder, and a good free throw shooter. Martin is still not there with respect to jump shooting, and he will have to get some second chance scores at the hoop to have a good night offensively. How Martin does defensively against Aldrige will be even more important than how he does in scoring for the Nuggets.

NUGGET'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Stay cool and confident. I’m going to have to keep including this key until the Nuggets maintain their confidence more consistently. Portland can easily take a double digit lead in the 1st half of this game, and the Nuggets need to go about their business without worrying about what the refs are doing and about just how good the Blazers might be.

Cut down on blown defensive coverages The Nuggets are going to want to play man to man for the most part, and they need to have enough defensive intensity to prevent the Blazers from having the big jump shooting night that they are capable of, including on 3-point shots. Diawara and Bobby Jones will be important.

Avoid alot of mistakes, keep the turnover count down for a change. Portland is by far the worst team in the League with respect to forcing turnovers, so if the Nuggets, who are just about the worst in turning it over, turn it over a lot to this team, they will have only themselves to blame, as the Blazers have the capability to take advantage of turnovers with fast break scores.

TRAILBLAZER'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Double team Melo or Iverson, usually Melo. There is a reason most teams do this. You want to double Melo unless Iverson is killing you like he did the Cavaliers the other night, in which case you probably should start doubling Iverson and going for steals off him.

Hit a lot of 3-point shots. The Trailblazers are accurate from 3-point land, so they should take advantage of the many good looks the Denver defense will give them from long range.

Get a significant number of second chance opportunities. Both teams are very vulnerable to second chance scores. The Blazers are going to have to get more offensive rebounds than usual if they are to have a good chance to win this game. Aldrige, Frye, and Przybilla will have to beat Camby, Martin, and Melo to get a lot of offensive boards and second chance scores.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

The Trailblazers come to Denver with no night off after having won 4 straight at home, including against the Dallas Mavericks Saturday night and the Detroit Pistons last night. Brandon Roy has been on a tear and is an extremely dangerous shooter. He's sort of a smaller and a little less aggressive version of Carmelo Anthony offensively.

Overall, the Blazers are not a rebounding team, and unlike most Nugget's opponents, they won't get alot of second chances for scores. This team lives and dies mostly on the jump shooting of Roy and PG Jarrett Jack. The Trailblazers are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, but they haven't capitalized on that to any extent so far. The primary threats to look out for in 3-point shooting are Brandon Roy and Martell Webster, with Jarrett Jack and James Jones secondary threats. G Sergio Rodriguez can hit clutch shots and can sometimes explode in a game.

Generally the Nuggets are going to have a substantial advantage over smaller, less powerful up front, poorer rebounding teams. Channing Frye apparently is starting at center, but you will see alot of Joel Przybilla who is a better rebounder. Camby and Kenyon should be able to get the job done tonight without too much trouble. If Greg Oden were playing, the Trailblazers would be truly dangerous, even playing with no rest. But he isn't playing, so this is the Nugget's game to blow. They blew many games against middle and lower teams, like this one, at home last year, and several of the ones they didn't blow completely were close calls. Tonight we find out more about how much that has changed.

DON'T TICK ME OFF MORE THAN USUAL GK

The world did not come to an end when you ran a 9-man rotation. You have a big edge over Portland, so don't go back to a 7 or 8-man rotation for this game. If everyone is healthy, give a 9th man 10-11 minutes and keep A.I. under 40 minutes.