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Sunday, January 4, 2009

The 2009 Denver Nuggets: All For One, One For All, and Very Happy to be in the Game

Just who are these 2008-09 Nuggets and just who do they think they are winning just about every single game they can possibly win following the partial dismantling of the team in the wake of the owner’s big payroll cuts in the wake of the economic meltdown? In recent reports we have gone over how the Nuggets correctly picked the best strategies and tactics available to them in the wake of the sudden shrinkage of dollars available. Head Coach George Karl is a mastermind at the not overly complicated task of winning in the regular season against less talented teams, and this year so far he has outdone himself in that regard. The Nuggets in each game have been rolling over every less talented team that is the slightest bit less enthusiastic and determined than they are, which has been basically all of them.

There is something exotic about this situation though; teams that have been partially and awkwardly dismantled seldom if ever come out of the gate as if they were just put together shiny, sleek, and new out of the box. So there is something a little quixotic and mysterious about this team and about how it is motivated to perform at the extreme high end of the possible range it could be in. I thought it was about time to suggest some explanations for how the Nuggets are winning without the tools, techniques, and leadership that is usually used to get those wins. In other words, let's see if we can find out what is behind this magic show.

Who is leading the Nuggets to all these extra wins? No one and nothing would appear to be the answer at first. But we had better go on an expedition to see if there are some things that are at first hidden from view.

A Coach who doesn’t have and can’t fake a lot of confidence can not lead a team to extra victories and this team does in fact have a Coach whose lack of confidence lies just beyond view of the public, but certainly within sight of the most perceptive and long-term players on the Nuggets. And since this Coach leads in only the most roundabout and indirect ways you could imagine, this team is certainly not led in the way that many NBA teams are led by head coaches. Furthermore, the Nuggets’ assistant coaches all heavily defer to Head Coach George Karl and are all relatively soft spoken to boot. In summary, there clearly is very little real leadership to be found among the assistants or the Head Coach.

Nor are the Nuggets led by any of the players in any visible, obvious, or ordinary way. Which Nuggets player motivationally leads the other players to wins the Nuggets would not otherwise get? You can’t answer that, because there isn’t any answer. In fact, the Nuggets don’t even have clear statistical performance leaders, as you will see at the end of this report. Carmelo Anthony was instructed to tone his game down and it this point he has. The truth is that none of the Nuggets is a natural leader and none of them want the job of leading in the traditional American sense of the term.

So just what is making these mysterious Nuggets tick? We can start with the observation that the background of the players is different from that of most other teams. This is not your everyday African American team. Nor is it a team with a heavy European influence such as the Raptors. Nor is it a team with a core of well known Caucasian white guys.

This team has a unique ethnic mix on it; there is no other team with a makeup like this one. This is a team with a blended Latino-African and African-American identity. Two of the best three players on the team this year, Nene and Carmelo Anthony, are Brazilian (Portuguese-African to be more precise) and Latino-African (part Puerto Rican to be more precise) respectively. Renaldo Balkman, another big Latino influence, has been another one of the many surprisingly good players this season for the Nuggets. In short, looking at players making the most impact, the Nuggets are the most Latino NBA team as 2009 begins, something which has of course gone unrecognized by Big Media, but may have something to do with how this team has pulled so many rabbits out of so many hats in just the first two months of this season.

Speaking quite generally but accurately, it seems that Latinos commonly can do well without the kind of clearly defined and often heavy handed leadership that other types seem to have (and need?) more often. Although there used to be many dictators in South America, many South American countries today are at least as democratic and almost as multicultural as the USA is. And Spain itself is today a very advanced and sophisticated democracy. My point is that Latinos are at least as good at running things well with shared leadership as is any other ethnic background.

Aside from sharing the leadership nice and equally, all for one and one for all style, it appears that the Nuggets are being largely run by some kind of exotic Latino soul or spirit, the same one that allowed Nene to so quickly and so completely recover from at least two major injuries in recent years, from a major cancer scare last year, and from the conflict between two nationalities that every international player must solve sooner or later.

Nene recently solved his Brazil/USA conflict by announcing that he will become an American citizen. Somehow I don’t think he would be leading the NBA in field goal percentage, ahead of Carmelo Anthony and second only to Billups among Nuggets in Real Player Rating, were he still stuck with any of those health issues or even with just the nationality conflict. No, just as Nene has nicely survived all of those trials and tribulations, the Nuggets somehow and so far have nicely survived their economic meltdown and their kicking to the curb of Marcus Camby, Eduardo Najera, Allen Iverson, Antonio McDyess, and a few others over the years.

Which only goes to show you, even the badly and unwisely behaved can succeed for awhile if the soul and the spirit are correct and powerfully positive. It is always possible to break the rules and succeed. It is always possible to find a strange way of doing things that can work for awhile.

Aside from the heavy Latino influence, you have on the Nuggets the usual African American type players such as Kenyon Martin and Chauncey Billups. But none of these are heavy duty leaders that many of the other teams have, in the mold of, for example, Keven Garnett or Amare Stoudemire. Kenyon Martin used to be truly ferocious, but following microfracture surgery on two devastated knees, he is too aware that he is lucky to be playing at all to be as ferocious as he used to be.

But Billups is the perfect player to make up for a coach who is unable to direct, design, or operate a pro NBA offense. In fact, he would make the perfect player coach. If Nuggets Owner Stanley Kroenke were to fire the entire coaching staff and designate Billups as the Head Coach, the Nuggets would win almost as many games, and the money saved would go a long way to soothing the frazzled nerves of the billionaire Mr. Kroenke.. Then again, the other owners would be laughing at Mr. Kroenke behind his back at parties if he ever actually fired all the coaches and installed Chauncey Billups as the Head Coach.

Although Billups structurally directs and coaches the offense, his personality is literally too nice for him to be able to lead the Nuggets, motivationally, particularly in high stress situations such as the playoffs. As seemingly everyone in the Land of Rose Colored Glasses, Colorado, is fond of pointing out, Chauncey Billups is a nice man with a nice personality, which is precisely the reason why he is not someone who might lead his team to victory in a ferocious game seven.

There is also on the Nuggets the black sheep of the family, offensive star and defensive wild card J.R. Smith, the one whose immature personality is considered to be completely out of place by many Coloradans and especially by “The Decider” when it comes to the quality and performance potential of personalities: George Karl. Smith is in fact psychologically younger than his years which are just 23, and his personality is too undeveloped for him to be any kind of a leader. Unless you need to be led to a really good video game, in which case you might want to consult with J.R..

Proceeding further on the Nuggets’ strange roster, you have Chris Andersen who you make fun of at your own risk. The biggest upside surprise of all statistically for these Nuggets, and responsible for at least a couple of the surprise Nuggets wins by himself, Andersen, to cynical observers, has seemingly failed at everything. But cynical observers need to update their information. Andersen has definitely not failed at everything anymore, because he has been a big reason why the Nuggets have been a very big upside surprise so far this year.

Andersen was born where the weather is usually perfect: Long Beach, but he ended up flunking out of the steamy hot University of Houston, and then playing at a college that no one has ever heard of: Blinn College. There was no way anyone was ever going to get drafted out of Blinn College.

But at 6 feet 10 and with versatile and excellent athletic leaping ability for someone so tall, in 2001 he earned a spot on the then very lowly Denver Nuggets and he remained on the team for three years, when he went to the New Orleans Hornets and was better coached to a much more substantial outcome there.

But Andersen’s personality can be completely out of line by Colorado and George Karl standards and, in January 2006 he was caught having ingested a truly illegal substance and was banned from the League for two years. With assistance, of course, from the Player’s Union, he was reinstated to the NBA and to the Hornets in March 2008 but didn’t play much at all for the Hornets during the last part of that regular season, or during the lengthy Hornets 2008 playoff run.

Meanwhile, the economic emergency was inducing the Nuggets’ management to throw more and more expensive players, ones they didn’t know how to coach anyway, overboard into the drink, which made it however the perfect situation for Andersen to gain an opening. So despite his banishment, and a detour to Chinese basketball, he was practically a preseason star this past fall in Denver, and so it was only natural that he would return to where he started, Denver, for the 2008-09 season. And at a cost to the Nuggets for this season of next to nothing, perfect for an economic emergency.

Now then wouldn’t you know that the Nuggets would be lucky beyond belief with respect to Mr. Andersen. With a Real Player Rating so far of just over .700, which puts him in the category of “Star: High Quality Starter,” and also puts him right up there with Carmelo Anthony, you are an idiot if you think Chris Andersen is a failure these days.

Ultimately, there is something incredibly exotic about the Nuggets when you look for common denominators and think everything through in long form. This is a team filled with players who are all very lucky to be here. There are few if any inevitable or automatic players on the Nuggets. There are hardly any fancy prep school players; there are no European prep players. All of them except for Chauncey Billups could have easily been out of basketball by now if they had not luckily gotten enough good luck to offset all the serious bad luck they had over the years.

Having grown up in one of America’s highest crime, most dangerous neighborhoods, Carmelo Anthony could just as easily be in jail or even dead right now. Similarly, J.R. Smith grew up in a high danger zone, and could have been ruined by that, or else could have washed out of the NBA already due to hostility from coaches including George Karl. Kenyon Martin comes from Saginaw, Michigan, one heck of a depressed town.

Anthony Carter was elevated from total oblivion by Karl, who overrates every relatively short but good personality guard he ever sees. Anthony Carter would probably be about nowhere were he not on the Nuggets right now.

So every time you see the Nuggets you are seeing, unlike with other teams, players who could just as easily not be there. They could easily be in jail, or dead, or working at Wal-Mart. The Nuggets are almost a science fiction team. So therefore, almost all of these Nuggets are players who are really glad to be playing in the big time NBA, in the Mile High City, and to be making a lot of money in the process. I mean, they are really, really glad, as in practically joyful. As in it might bring a tear to your eye that all of them have survived all of the big threats that they have survived, threats at levels that most other players don’t have to ever worry about. Most have been to hell and back, to now strangely end up in the same place and at the same time, all for one and one for all, as if it was all intended to be such.

Iverson fit into this pattern very well, but he wanted out because he wants to win the Quest for the Ring at all costs and he knew the Nuggets were not going to really be about the Quest in the next few years, which are his last in the NBA. The Nuggets are about being a zone for those who have been through a lot more than normal to be in the game.

Iverson is correct: this team can not possibly win a playoff series if the truth were told. Even so, this team is and very plausibly will remain a very happy team, and to be happy is just as important as to win. If you win you will be happy. But you can, in certain circumstances, if you have a very strong mojo, a strong faith, be happy without winning anything important, and the Nuggets can pull that off this year the way they are going.

And so as a fan, don’t be fooled into thinking that they can compete with the top teams, but at the same time don’t be fooled into thinking that the Nuggets will not be happy even though they can’t.

They are very happy to be in the game, all for one and one for all.

SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A REGULAR SEASON
Historic Super Star 1.000 and more
Super Star 0.825 to 0.999
A Star: A Very Good Starter 0.700 to 0.824
Good, Solid Starter 0.620 to 0.699
Major Role Player 0.550 to 0.619
Role Player 0.500 to 0.549
Minor Role Player 0.450 to 0.499
Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.400 to 0.449
Poor Player or Extremely Important Defender 0.350 to 0.399
Very Poor Player Regardless of Defending 0.300 to 0.349
Extremely Poor Player / Disaster of a Season / Injury Problems etc. Less to 0.299

NUGGETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2008-09 Season, as of Jan. 4, 2009

Chauncey Billups 0.795
Nene Hilario 0.740
Carmelo Anthony 0.714
Chris Andersen 0.702
Kenyon Martin 0.647
J.R. Smith 0.637
Renaldo Balkman 0.633
Allen Iverson 0.589
Anthony Carter 0.562
Linas Kleiza 0.506
Chucky Atkins 0.447
Dahntay Jones 0.343

NUGGETS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
2008-09 Season, as of Jan. 4, 2009

Chauncey Billups 846.25
Nene Hilario 816.45
Carmelo Anthony 706.85
Kenyon Martin 643.15
J.R. Smith 541.40
Anthony Carter 443.15
Linas Kleiza 382.30
Chris Andersen 298.35
Dahntay Jones 211.55
Renaldo Balkman 200.00
Allen Iverson 72.40
Chucky Atkins 50.95



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Saturday, January 3, 2009

Ultimate Game Breakdown: Players: Pistons 83 Nets 75 in Detroit Dec. 31 2008

REAL PLAYER RATINGS (QUALITY) FOR THIS GAME
NEW JERSEY NETS QUALITY
Brook Lopez, C 1.005
Josh Boone, C 0.645
Devin Harris, PG 0.598
Eduardo Najera, PF 0.573
Bobby Simmons, SF 0.388
Yi Jianlian, PF 0.332
Jarvis Hayes, SF 0.251
Trenton Hassell, SF 0.032
Chris Douglas-Roberts, SG -0.071
Vince Carter, SG -0.147

DETROIT PISTONS QUALITY
Rasheed Wallace, C 0.970
Tayshaun Prince, SF 0.664
Jason Maxiell, PF 0.572
Amir Johnson, PF 0.498
Allen Iverson, SG 0.451
Arron Afflalo, SG 0.365
Kwame Brown, C 0.309
Rodney Stuckey, PG 0.290

SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Historic Superstar for this game 1.400 and more
Superstar 1.050 to 1.399
Star 0.800 to 1.050
Very Good 0.650 to 0.799
Major Role Player 0.525 to 0.649
Role Player 0.450 to 0.524
Minor Role Player 0.400 to 0.449
Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 to 0.399
Poor Game or Extremely Importand Defender 0.275 to 0.349
Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 to 0.274
Disaster Game Regardless of Defending minus infinity to 0.199

****************************************************
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION (QUANTITY) IN THIS GAME
NEW JERSEY NETS QUANTITY
Brook Lopez, C 37.20
Devin Harris, PG 23.90
Yi Jianlian, PF 10.95
Jarvis Hayes, SF 9.30
Bobby Simmons, SF 9.30
Eduardo Najera, PF 8.60
Josh Boone, C 7.10
Trenton Hassell, SF 0.45
Chris Douglas-Roberts, SG -0.85
Vince Carter, SG -2.20

DETROIT PISTONS QUANTITY
Tayshaun Prince, SF 29.20
Allen Iverson, SG 19.85
Jason Maxiell, PF 14.30
Amir Johnson, PF 12.95
Rodney Stuckey, PG 11.60
Arron Afflalo, SG 10.95
Rasheed Wallace, C 9.70
Kwame Brown, C 6.80

SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 40.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 36.0 to 39.9
Huge Game 32.0 to 35.9
Very Big Game 28.0 to 31.9
Big Game 24.0 to 27.9
Typical Average Game 20.0 to 23.9
Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 to 19.9
Way Below Average Game 12.0 to 15.9
Bad Game 9.0 to 11.9
Really Bad Game 5.0 to 8.9
Total Disaster minus infinity to 4.9

SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR NON-STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Non-Starters Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 33.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 29.0 to 32.9
Huge Game 25.0 to 28.9
Very Big Game 21.0 to 24.9
Big Game 17.0 to 20.9
Typical Non-Starter Game 12.0 to 16.9
Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 to 11.9
Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter or Limited Minutes 6.0 to 8.9
Bad Game Even for a Non-Starter or Very Limited Minutes 3.0 to 5.9
Disaster: Nothing Much to Report minus infinity to 1.9

THE HIGHEST QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME













NEW JERSEY NETS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
Super Star during minutes on the court: Brook Lopez
Very Good during minutes on the court: Josh Boone
Very Good during minutes on the court: Eduardo Najera








DETROIT PISTONS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
Star during minutes on the court: Rasheed Wallace
Very Good during minutes on the court: Tayshaun Prince
Very Good during minutes on the court: Jason Maxiell

THE GREATEST POWER PERFORMERS OF THIS GAME













NEW JERSEY NETS POWER PERFORMERS
Massive and Memorable Game: Brook Lopez








DETROIT PISTONS POWER PERFORMERS
Very Big Game: Tayshaun Prince
Big Game: Jason Maxiell



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USER GUIDE FOR ULTIMATE GAME BREAKDOWN: PLAYER REPORTS (Last updated December 8 2008)

This is a "just the important facts please, and give them to me quick" type of report. I will in some cases do a very limited amount of commentary at the bottom of this type of report, but it will really be just notes for commentary that will be elsewhere in the near future.

In many cases there will be no comments at all. Most of the commentaries I do are in "Game/Team/League Reports" and in Fast Breaks".

With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players report, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone, including me, can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be.

Only players who played at least 7 minutes are included in these reports. Any player who plays for only one half of one quarter (6 minutes) or less is not included since he didn't play for long enough to be fairly compared with the other players.

The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows:

POSITIVE FACTORS
Points 1.00 (at par)
Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00
Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60
Number of FTs Made 0.00

Assists 1.75

Offensive Rebounds 1.15
Defensive Rebounds 1.25
Blocks 1.60
Steals 2.15

NEGATIVE FACTORS
3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00
2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85
FTs Missed -0.85

Turnovers -2.00
Personal Fouls -0.80

ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT
3-Pointer Made 4.00
2-Pointer Made 2.60
Free Throw Made 1.00
3-Pointer Missed -1.00
2-Pointer Missed -0.85
Free Throw Missed -0.85

ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT
3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200
2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246
1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459

ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT
Assist/Turnover Ratio That Yields 0 Net Points: 1.143

QUALITY (RPR) AND QUANTITY (RPP)
RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (all the good things minus all the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court, without regard to playing time.

Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did.

Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time.

The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless.

Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender.

Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot!



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Ultimate Game Breakdown: Players: Pistons 88 Magic 82 in Detroit Dec. 29 2008

REAL PLAYER RATINGS (QUALITY) FOR THIS GAME
ORLANDO MAGIC QUALITY
Dwight Howard, C 0.950
Rashard Lewis, PF 0.773
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 0.590
Keith Bogans, SG 0.407
Tony Battie, C 0.196
Anthony Johnson, PG 0.116
Courtney Lee, SG 0.113
Jameer Nelson, PG -0.045

DETROIT PISTONS QUALITY
Antonio McDyess, PF 1.135
Allen Iverson, SG 0.751
Rasheed Wallace, C 0.646
Rodney Stuckey, PG 0.543
Amir Johnson, PF 0.513
Tayshaun Prince, SF 0.500
Jason Maxiell, PF 0.466
Arron Afflalo, SG 0.383

SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Historic Superstar for this game 1.400 and more
Superstar 1.050 to 1.399
Star 0.800 to 1.050
Very Good 0.650 to 0.799
Major Role Player 0.525 to 0.649
Role Player 0.450 to 0.524
Minor Role Player 0.400 to 0.449
Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 to 0.399
Poor Game or Extremely Importand Defender 0.275 to 0.349
Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 to 0.274
Disaster Game Regardless of Defending minus infinity to 0.199

****************************************************
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION (QUANTITY) IN THIS GAME
ORLANDO MAGIC QUANTITY
Dwight Howard, C 40.85
Rashard Lewis, PF 28.60
Hedo Turkoglu, SF 24.80
Keith Bogans, SG 8.55
Courtney Lee, SG 2.70
Tony Battie, C 2.55
Anthony Johnson, PG 2.20
Jameer Nelson, PG -1.30

DETROIT PISTONS QUANTITY
Allen Iverson, SG 29.30
Antonio McDyess, PF 27.25
Rasheed Wallace, C 23.25
Rodney Stuckey, PG 22.25
Tayshaun Prince, SF 22.00
Amir Johnson, PF 9.75
Arron Afflalo, SG 8.05
Jason Maxiell, PF 7.45

SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 40.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 36.0 to 39.9
Huge Game 32.0 to 35.9
Very Big Game 28.0 to 31.9
Big Game 24.0 to 27.9
Typical Average Game 20.0 to 23.9
Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 to 19.9
Way Below Average Game 12.0 to 15.9
Bad Game 9.0 to 11.9
Really Bad Game 5.0 to 8.9
Total Disaster minus infinity to 4.9

SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR NON-STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Non-Starters Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 33.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 29.0 to 32.9
Huge Game 25.0 to 28.9
Very Big Game 21.0 to 24.9
Big Game 17.0 to 20.9
Typical Non-Starter Game 12.0 to 16.9
Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 to 11.9
Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter or Limited Minutes 6.0 to 8.9
Bad Game Even for a Non-Starter or Very Limited Minutes 3.0 to 5.9
Disaster: Nothing Much to Report minus infinity to 1.9

THE HIGHEST QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME













ORLANDO MAGIC OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
SuperStar during minutes on the court: Dwight Howard
Star during minutes on the court: Rashard Lewis
Very Good during minutes on the court: Hedo Turkoglu








DETROIT PISTONS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
Superstar during minutes on the court: Antonio McDyess
Very Good during minutes on the court: Allen Iverson
Very Good during minutes on the court: Rasheed Wallace

THE GREATEST POWER PERFORMERS OF THIS GAME













ORLANDO MAGIC POWER PERFORMERS
Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, and Not Very Often: Dwight Howard
Very Big Game: Rashard Lewis
Big Game: Hedo Turkoglu








DETROIT PISTONS POWER PERFORMERS
Massive and Memorable Game: Antonio McDyess
Very Big Game: Allen Iverson
Big Game: Rasheed Wallace
Big Game: Rodney Stuckey
Big Game: Tayshaun Prince



BallHype: hype it up!




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USER GUIDE FOR THIS TYPE OF REPORT (Last updated December 8 2008)

This is a "just the important facts please, and give them to me quick" type of report. I will in some cases do a very limited amount of commentary at the bottom of this type of report, but it will really be just notes for commentary that will be elsewhere in the near future.

In many cases there will be no comments at all. Most of the commentaries I do are in "Game/Team/League Reports" and in Fast Breaks".

With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players report, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone like me can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be.

The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows:

POSITIVE FACTORS
Points 1.00 (at par)
Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00
Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60
Number of FTs Made 0.00

Assists 1.75

Offensive Rebounds 1.15
Defensive Rebounds 1.25
Blocks 1.60
Steals 2.15

NEGATIVE FACTORS
3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00
2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85
FTs Missed -0.85

Turnovers -2.00
Personal Fouls -0.80

ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT
3-Pointer Made 4.00
2-Pointer Made 2.60
Free Throw Made 1.00
3-Pointer Missed -1.00
2-Pointer Missed -0.85
Free Throw Missed -0.85

ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT
3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200
2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246
1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459

ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT
Assist/Turnover Ratio That Yields 0 Net Points: 1.143

QUALITY (RPR) AND QUANTITY (RPP)
RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (all the good things minus all the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court, without regard to playing time.

Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did.

Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time.

The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless.

Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender.

Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot!



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Friday, January 2, 2009

Ultimate Game Breakdown: Players: Pistons 104 Bulls 98 in Detroit Dec. 23 2008

REAL PLAYER RATINGS (QUALITY) FOR THIS GAME
CHICAGO BULLS QUALITY
Tyrus Thomas, PF 1.069
Andres Nocioni, SF 0.806
Derrick Rose, PG 0.714
Larry Hughes, SF 0.595
Ben Gordon, SG 0.585
Luol Deng, SF 0.371
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 0.179
Joakim Noah, C 0.141

DETROIT PISTONS QUALITY
Rodney Stuckey, PG 1.198
Tayshaun Prince, SF 0.833
Antonio McDyess, PF 0.800
Jason Maxiell, PF 0.703
Allen Iverson, SG 0.683
Rasheed Wallace, C 0.532
Richard Hamilton, SG 0.442
Arron Afflalo, SG 0.347

SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Historic Superstar for this game 1.400 and more
Superstar 1.050 to 1.399
Star 0.800 to 1.050
Very Good 0.650 to 0.799
Major Role Player 0.525 to 0.649
Role Player 0.450 to 0.524
Minor Role Player 0.400 to 0.449
Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 to 0.399
Poor Game or Extremely Importand Defender 0.275 to 0.349
Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 to 0.274
Disaster Game Regardless of Defending minus infinity to 0.199

****************************************************
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION (QUANTITY) IN THIS GAME
CHICAGO BULLS QUANTITY
Tyrus Thomas, PF 36.35
Andres Nocioni, SF 25.00
Larry Hughes, SF 22.60
Ben Gordon, SG 19.90
Derrick Rose, PG 15.00
Luol Deng, SF 12.60
Thabo Sefolosha, SG 3.75
Joakim Noah, C 2.40

DETROIT PISTONS QUANTITY
Rodney Stuckey, PG 50.30
Tayshaun Prince, SF 32.50
Antonio McDyess, PF 21.60
Allen Iverson, SG 16.40
Rasheed Wallace, C 15.95
Richard Hamilton, SG 14.60
Jason Maxiell, PF 10.55
Arron Afflalo, SG 10.40

SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 40.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 36.0 to 39.9
Huge Game 32.0 to 35.9
Very Big Game 28.0 to 31.9
Big Game 24.0 to 27.9
Typical Average Game 20.0 to 23.9
Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 to 19.9
Way Below Average Game 12.0 to 15.9
Bad Game 9.0 to 11.9
Really Bad Game 5.0 to 8.9
Total Disaster minus infinity to 4.9

SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR NON-STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Non-Starters Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 33.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 29.0 to 32.9
Huge Game 25.0 to 28.9
Very Big Game 21.0 to 24.9
Big Game 17.0 to 20.9
Typical Non-Starter Game 12.0 to 16.9
Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 to 11.9
Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter or Limited Minutes 6.0 to 8.9
Bad Game Even for a Non-Starter or Very Limited Minutes 3.0 to 5.9
Disaster: Nothing Much to Report minus infinity to 1.9

THE HIGHEST QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME













CHICAGO BULLS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
SuperStar during minutes on the court: Tyrus Thomas
Very Good during minutes on the court: Andres Nocioni
Very Good during minutes on the court: Derrick Rose








DETROIT PISTONS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
Superstar during minutes on the court: Rodney Stuckey
Star during minutes on the court: Tayshaun Prince
Star during minutes on the court: Antonio McDyess
Very Good during minutes on the court: Jason Maxiell
Very Good during minutes on the court: Allen Iverson

THE GREATEST POWER PERFORMERS OF THIS GAME













CHICAGO BULLS POWER PERFORMERS
Only Some Non-Starting Players Can Ever Fly This High, and Not Very Often: Tyrus Thomas
Very Big Game: Larry Hughes
Big Game: Andres Nocioni








DETROIT PISTONS POWER PERFORMERS
Only Some Players can Ever Fly This High, and Not Very Often: Rodney Stuckey
Huge Game: Tayshaun Prince
Very Big Game: Antonio McDyess



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USER GUIDE FOR THIS TYPE OF REPORT (Last updated December 8 2008)
EDITING AND PUBLISHING PLAN-MAIN DETAILS
This is a "just the important facts please, and give them to me quick" type of report. I will in some cases do a very limited amount of commentary at the bottom of this type of report, but it will really be just notes for commentary that will be elsewhere in the near future.

In many cases there will be no comments at all. Most of the commentaries I do are in "Game/Team/League Reports" and in Fast Breaks".

ULTIMATE GAME BREAKDOWN--PLAYERS REPORT EXPLAINED
With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players report, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone like me can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be.

The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows:

POSITIVE FACTORS
Points 1.00 (at par)
Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00
Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60
Number of FTs Made 0.00

Assists 1.75

Offensive Rebounds 1.15
Defensive Rebounds 1.25
Blocks 1.60
Steals 2.15

NEGATIVE FACTORS
3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00
2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85
FTs Missed -0.85

Turnovers -2.00
Personal Fouls -0.80

ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT
3-Pointer Made 4.00
2-Pointer Made 2.60
Free Throw Made 1.00
3-Pointer Missed -1.00
2-Pointer Missed -0.85
Free Throw Missed -0.85

ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT
3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200
2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246
1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459

ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT
Assist/Turnover Ratio That Yields 0 Net Points: 1.143

QUALITY (RPR) AND QUANTITY (RPP)
RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (all the good things minus all the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court, without regard to playing time.

Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did.

Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time.

The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless.

Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender.

Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot!



BallHype: hype it up!




You Can Post Your Response to Anything on Quest Here

Ultimate Game Breakdown: Players: Hawks 85 Pistons 78 in Atlanta Dec. 21 2008

REAL PLAYER RATINGS (QUALITY) FOR THIS GAME
DETROIT PISTONS QUALITY
Rodney Stuckey, PG 1.001
Rasheed Wallace, C 0.769
Amir Johnson, PF 0.725
Will Bynum, PG 0.564
Allen Iverson, SG 0.548
Antonio McDyess, PF 0.370
Tayshaun Prince, SF 0.315
Richard Hamilton, SG 0.208

ATLANTA HAWKS QUALITY
Mike Bibby, PG 1.246
Al Horford, C 0.719
Marvin Williams, PF 0.513
Joe Johnson, SG 0.501
Maurice Evans, SF 0.359
Ronald Murray, SG 0.282
Josh Smith, PF 0.210

SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Historic Superstar for this game 1.400 and more
Superstar 1.050 to 1.399
Star 0.800 to 1.050
Very Good 0.650 to 0.799
Major Role Player 0.525 to 0.649
Role Player 0.450 to 0.524
Minor Role Player 0.400 to 0.449
Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 to 0.399
Poor Game or Extremely Importand Defender 0.275 to 0.349
Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 to 0.274
Disaster Game Regardless of Defending minus infinity to 0.199

****************************************************
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION (QUANTITY) IN THIS GAME
DETROIT PISTONS QUANTITY
Rodney Stuckey, PG 36.05
Rasheed Wallace, C 32.30
Allen Iverson, SG 22.45
Tayshaun Prince, SF 10.70
Antonio McDyess, PF 9.25
Richard Hamilton, SG 8.75
Amir Johnson, PF 5.80
Will Bynum, PG 3.95

ATLANTA HAWKS QUANTITY
Mike Bibby, PG 47.35
Al Horford, C 30.20
Joe Johnson, SG 21.55
Marvin Williams, PF 18.45
Josh Smith, PF 9.05
Maurice Evans, SF 6.10
Ronald Murray, SG 3.95

SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 40.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 36.0 to 39.9
Huge Game 32.0 to 35.9
Very Big Game 28.0 to 31.9
Big Game 24.0 to 27.9
Typical Average Game 20.0 to 23.9
Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 to 19.9
Way Below Average Game 12.0 to 15.9
Bad Game 9.0 to 11.9
Really Bad Game 5.0 to 8.9
Total Disaster minus infinity to 4.9

SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR NON-STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Non-Starters Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 33.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 29.0 to 32.9
Huge Game 25.0 to 28.9
Very Big Game 21.0 to 24.9
Big Game 17.0 to 20.9
Typical Non-Starter Game 12.0 to 16.9
Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 to 11.9
Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter or Limited Minutes 6.0 to 8.9
Bad Game Even for a Non-Starter or Very Limited Minutes 3.0 to 5.9
Disaster: Nothing Much to Report minus infinity to 1.9

THE HIGHEST QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME








DETROIT PISTONS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
Star during minutes on the court: Rodney Stuckey
Star during minutes on the court: Rasheed Wallace
Very Good during minutes on the court: Amir Johnson








ATLANTA HAWKS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
Superstar during minutes on the court: Mike Bibby
Star during minutes on the court: Al Horford

THE GREATEST POWER PERFORMERS OF THIS GAME








DETROIT PISTONS POWER PERFORMERS
Massive and Memorable Game: Rodney Stuckey
Huge Game: Rasheed Wallace








ATLANTA HAWKS POWER PERFORMERS
Only Some Players can Ever Fly This High, and Not Very Often: Mike Bibby
Huge Game: Al Horford



BallHype: hype it up!




You Can Post Your Response to Anything on Quest Here

USER GUIDE FOR THIS TYPE OF REPORT(Last updated December 8 2008)
EDITING AND PUBLISHING PLAN-MAIN DETAILS
This is a "just the important facts please, and give them to me quick" type of report. I will in some cases do a very limited amount of commentary at the bottom of this type of report, but it will really be just notes for commentary that will be elsewhere in the near future. In some cases there will be no comments at all.

Most of the commentaries I do are in "Game/Team/League Reports" and in Fast Breaks". Game/Team/League reports are, with any luck, going to be produced for about 20 Nuggets and for about 20 Pistons games this season. Ultimate Game Breakdowns: Players, such as the one here, will be done for those same games. Plus there will be about 10 more Nuggets and 10 more Pistons Game Breakdowns for games for which there will be no article report. There will be a few other "wildcard" Game Breakdowns.

So in total, at least 70 of these relatively easy to produce but very informative Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players reports are scheduled for the regular season. At least 40 Game/Team/League Reports are planned.

Ultimate Game Breakdown-Coaching reports are done for every game that has a Game/Team/League Report.

More of every type of report will come out during playoffs season; I won't bore you with those details.

The games that get the full treatment have been very carefully chosen to be the most important games, which are generally the games against the best teams. Full treatment including the kitchen sink report games have been chosen from among only games where neither team is at a disadvantage due to playing on back to back nights. Other internet basketball "experts" are really wasting their time to some extent when they report on a game where one team was playing on back to back nights and the other team was not, because the great majority of those games are almost automatically won by the team that has more rest. I used to do those stupid games, but I'm not doing them anymore, because I keep trying to get better and better at understanding and teaching basketball, so I make changes such as this.

ULTIMATE GAME BREAKDOWN--PLAYERS REPORT EXPLAINED
With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players report, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone like me can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be.

The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows:

POSITIVE FACTORS
Points 1.00 (at par)
Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00
Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60
Number of FTs Made 0.00

Assists 1.75

Offensive Rebounds 1.15
Defensive Rebounds 1.25
Blocks 1.60
Steals 2.15

NEGATIVE FACTORS
3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00
2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85
FTs Missed -0.85

Turnovers -2.00
Personal Fouls -0.80

ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT
3-Pointer Made 4.00
2-Pointer Made 2.60
Free Throw Made 1.00
3-Pointer Missed -1.00
2-Pointer Missed -0.85
Free Throw Missed -0.85

ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT
3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200
2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246
1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459

ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT
Assist/Turnover Ratio That Yields 0 Net Points: 1.143

QUALITY (RPR) AND QUANTITY (RPP)-AN EXPLANATION
RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (all the good things minus all the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court.

Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did.

Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time.

The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless.

Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender.

Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot!


BallHype: hype it up!




You Can Post Your Response to Anything on Quest Here