Real Team Ratings as of February 2, 2010: the Cavaliers Surge and the Lakers fall Behind the Nuggets

REAL TEAM RATINGS
NBA 2009-10 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF FEBRUARY 2, 2009

Cleveland Cavaliers 41.10
Denver Nuggets 33.30
Orlando Magic 27.00
Los Angeles Lakers 26.90
Atlanta Hawks 25.80
Boston Celtics 23.40
Utah Jazz 21.40
Portland Trail Blazers 11.20
Dallas Mavericks 9.30
San Antonio Spurs 1.60
Oklahoma City Thunder -0.40
Charlotte Bobcats -2.40
Memphis Grizzlies -4.60
Phoenix Suns -7.90
Miami Heat -10.10
Houston Rockets -11.10
New Orleans Hornets -12.30
Chicago Bulls -13.10
Milwaukee Bucks -19.40
Toronto Raptors -26.60
New York Knicks -30.50
Philadelphia 76ers -32.20
Los Angeles Clippers -32.70
Washington Wizards -33.50
Detroit Pistons -38.20
Golden State Warriors -43.60
Sacramento Kings -43.60
Indiana Pacers -45.50
Minnesota Timberwolves -67.40
New Jersey Nets -79.90

THE EAST SITUATION: YIKES!
At the beginning of the season we thought the Cavaliers would meet the Lakers in the 2010 Championship, but the Cavaliers got off to such a stumbling start, and the Celtics got off to such an extremely strong start, that we switched our prediction to Celtics-Lakers for the 2010 Championship.

But since the last Real Team Ratings Report on December 26, the Celtics have stumbled while the Cavaliers have surged.

Whether to start projecting the Cavaliers in the 2010 Championship had to be and was strongly considered. But we decided to for now stand pat with the Celtics, partly because we think that Celtics' injury problems have been a big factor in their falling behind Cleveland by about 18 Real Team Rating (RTR) points.

Paul Pierce has missed five games, during which the Celtics were only 2-3. Kevin Garnett has missed eleven games, during which the Celtics were only 5-6. On the other hand though, Shaquille O'Neal has missed six games for the Cavaliers, who were however 5-1 during these games. But Shaquille O'Neal is still not as crucial to the Cavaliers as are either Pierce or Garnett for the Celtics; for one thing, O’Neal’s playing time is much less than that of Pierce or Garnett when they play.

Also, injuries to non-starters have been more significant for the Celtics than for the Cavaliers. Overall, I think the Celtics deserve roughly ten more RTR points relative to Cleveland due to injury problems that they presumably won't have come playoff time.

Another important reason I am maintaining the Celtics over the Cavaliers in my personal 2010 projection is that I am giving the Celtics about a 12 point RTR boost for having a Coach whose strategies and motivational skills will work better in the playoffs relative to the regular season and relative to the Cleveland coach. Doc Rivers knows more about how to win playoff games than does Mike Brown, whereas Brown is at least as good as Rivers for winning regular season games.

Having said all that, although we are officially maintaining our Celtics over Cavaliers projection, it is razor tight as to who will actually win it; a 7-game series is more and more likely.

WILD CARDS AND LONG SHOTS OF THE EAST
The main contenders in the East this year are the Cavaliers and the Celtics. The wild card / long shot contenders would consist of the Orlando Magic and the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have actually become a lot less surprising in the 38 days since the last RTR Report. Meanwhile, the Magic have reestablished the position many thought they had when the season began: a little stronger than the Hawks and the only real theoretical threat to the Celtics and Cavaliers. It was felt by many before the season began that the Hawks are still a player or two and/or a season or two away from being a true major threat to the top contenders. This is more and more being reflected in RTR lately.

Specifically, in the 38 days since the December 26 RTR Report, the Hawks declined from 37.4 to 25.8, while the Magic improved from 25.0 to 27.0. Looking at RTR alone, it remains way too close to call at the moment as to who would win a 2010 Hawks-Magic playoff series. However, we think the Magic would win it due to a definite playoff coaching advantage and a probable home court advantage.

As can be deduced from our keeping the Celtics as our projected East winner this year, we do not think that when all is said and done either the Hawks or the Magic will be able to defeat the Celtics in a playoff series this year, despite the fact that at the moment the Celtics are actually very slightly behind both the Magic and the Hawks RTR wise. In other words, we strongly expect the Celtics will finish the regular season ahead of both the Magic and the Hawks.

THE WEST SITUATION: DOUBLE YIKES!
The Denver Nuggets, thanks to their extremely good, League-leading .750 winning percentage against the best teams, have moved ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers in the West. The Lakers are just .526 versus the best teams at the moment. All of this is a little bit shocking quite honestly.

It may actually be an understatement to say that Carmelo Anthony, Nene, Chauncey Billups, Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, and on occasion J.R. Smith are chock loaded with raw scoring abilitiy. Also, Chris Andersen is a low volume but very efficient scoring machine. It is gradually becoming an inescapable conclusion that the Nuggets should by rights defeat the Lakers this year and be in the Championship, and if they don't the blame will have to go on Nuggets' coaching, but I am not at this moment quite ready to go that far. But I am very, very close to going that far; stay tuned.

The Nuggets have surged to a RTR of 33.3 whereas the Lakers are back at 26.9. Since the margin of error is 5-6 points, we can say that the Nuggets are most definitely slightly ahead of the Magic, the Lakers, the Hawks, the Celtics, and the Jazz. Judged by RTR alone (which is dangerous as the User Guide explains) we are looking at a Nuggets-Cleveland Cavaliers 2010 NBA Championship. Cleveland is right now slightly favored in a series against the Nuggets.

The Nuggets are way ahead of the Mavericks, the Trailblazers, and the Spurs. The Nuggets would be fairly heavy favorites to defeat any of these three teams as of now. Quest for the Ring no longer expects the Mavericks to defeat the Nuggets if the two teams meet again in this year’s playoffs, although we have not given up all hope yet. We do think that any Mavericks-Nuggets series will be closer than last year’s near Denver rout was. The main problem for Dallas and for anyone dreaming of beating the Nuggets this year is that the sheer amount of raw offensive skill that the Nuggets seem to have is astounding.

In parallel to our refusal to call the East in favor of the Cavaliers, we are at this time refusing to call the West in favor of the Nuggets despite their being currently ahead of the Lakers RTR wise by slightly more than the margin of error.

One reason we refuse to change our prediction that the Lakers will represent the West in this year's Championship is that the Lakers remain significantly ahead of the Nuggets in the all important net efficiency category. The Lakers offensive efficiency is currently 109.1 and their defensive efficiency is currently 102.0, for a net efficiency of 7.1. (This means, as you may remember, that for every 100 possessions, the Lakers outscore their opponents by 7.1 points. The Nuggets' offensive efficiency is a towering 111.8 but their defensive efficiency is just 106.1, for a net efficiency of 5.7.

The Nuggets’ offensive efficiency is the 2nd best in the NBA, behind only the Phoenix Suns, who are one of only five teams faster paced than the Nuggets by the way.

Aside from the Lakers remaining ahead of the Nuggets in net efficiency, they maintain a big 4.1 points per 100 possessions in defensive efficiency. If the defensive efficiency overweight adjustment should be larger than it is (which is quite frankly possible; we may be a little too conservative on that) then the gap between the Lakers and the Nuggets would be a less than it is.

LAKERS--NUGGETS LOOKS QUITE DIFFERENT THIS YEAR VERSUS LAST
When you look at last year versus this year, you see a fascinating role reversal for the Nuggets-Lakers confrontation. Last year, the Lakers were of course great on both offense and defense, but they were actually better offensively than defensively relative to the rest of the League. Last year, the Lakers were the 3rd best offensive team and the 6th best defensive team. This year so far, the Lakers are only the 10th best offensive team but they are the 2nd best defensive team.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have been in pretty much the reverse pattern. Last year the Nuggets were the 7th best offensive team and the 8th best defensive team. This year so far, the Nuggets are the 2nd best offensive team but only the 13th best defensive team. Carmelo Anthony, Ty Lawson, and especially Arron Afflalo have exceeded almost everyone's offensive expectations, and they have more than offset the fact that J.R. Smith is so far this year no longer a huge offensive weapon for the Nuggets. Even Kenyon Martin has been ramping it up offensively this year.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, defensively they have fallen off from last year's surprising 8th best defensive team status to only 13th best, which is very dangerously low if a team wants to make sure it is going to win in the playoffs, when defense is at a premium.

So the Lakers are emphasizing defense more so than they did last year (perhaps excessively, actually) whereas the Nuggets are emphasizing defense much less so than they did last year. Just to be 8th best last year, the Nuggets had to give everything they had to the defensive effort, whereas offensively they could coast on raw scoring skills.

If the Lakers are going to once again defeat the Nuggets this year, they will apparently be doing it with a very heavy emphasis on defense against a team that through massive raw scoring talent is an offensive powerhouse. In other words, the upcoming collision between the Lakers' extremely well coached defense and the Nuggets' extremely high raw skilled offense will be a major sight to behold. Meanwhile, the matchup between the Lakers' offense and the Nuggets' defense will apparently not be quite so high level.

In the 2009 Nuggets-Lakers West Final, it was mostly the reverse: the high level matchup was the Lakers' offense versus the super aggressive and energetic Nuggets' defense, whereas the less important matchup was the mostly street ball style Nuggets' offense against the relatively less important Lakers defense. The bottom line is that, if as increasingly appears a virtual certainty, the Lakers and the Nuggets meet up for the second straight year in the West final, the setup and probably the main dynamics will be the opposite of what they were last year.

WILD CARDS AND LONG SHOTS OF THE WEST
As for the wild cards and long shots of the West, the Mavericks have tumbled from 25.1 to 9.3 in the 38 days since the last RTR report. The Spurs have fallen from 8.0 to 1.6. The Phoenix Suns have gone from -2.0 to -7.9. All three of these teams are fading in the rear view mirror of both the Lakers and the Nuggets.

By contrast, the Utah Jazz have gone from -1.5 to 21.4. We are elevating the Jazz to long shot contender and dropping the Suns completely out of all of the contending categories including long shot. Look for a separate Report coming soon which will give our latest conference final and Championship projections and our latest breakdown for major, wild card, and long shot contenders.

THE ALL IMPORTANT, AWARD WINNING USER GUIDE
For complete details regarding how the Real Team Ratings are designed, how and why they work, and how exactly you can use them, see the User Guide.