Real Team Ratings as of December 26, 2009

REAL TEAM RATINGS
NBA 2009-10 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF DECEMBER 26, 2009
1. Boston Celtics 41.40
2. Atlanta Hawks 37.40
3. Los Angeles Lakers 33.40
4. Cleveland Cavaliers 33.40
5. Dallas Mavericks 25.10
6. Denver Nuggets 25.00
7. Orlando Magic 25.00
8. Portland Trail Blazers 19.60
9. San Antonio Spurs 8.00
10. Utah Jazz -1.50
11. Phoenix Suns -2.00
12. Miami Heat -3.20
13. Houston Rockets -3.30
14. Charlotte Bobcats -4.60
15. Milwaukee Bucks -5.70
16. Oklahoma City Thunder -10.40
17. Memphis Grizzlies -18.00
18. New York Knicks -20.30
19. New Orleans Hornets -21.00
20. Washington Wizards -21.30
21. Sacramento Kings -23.10
22. Detroit Pistons -26.50
23. Indiana Pacers -28.90
24. Los Angeles Clippers -29.80
25. Toronto Raptors -30.60
26. Philadelphia 76ers -37.80
27. Chicago Bulls -38.80
28. Golden State Warriors -39.00
29. Minnesota Timberwolves -63.70
30. New Jersey Nets -64.50

The Boston Celtics have a small lead over the Hawks, the Lakers, and the Cavaliers so far in this years Quest for the Ring. The Atlanta Hawks are for real so far this season and are the biggest upside surprise. The Cavaliers and Lakers are even up a little ways behind surprising Atlanta. Do not be fooled by the big Cavaliers victory over LA on Christmas; any team can have a bad game now and then.

The Mavericks, the Nuggets, and the Magic, who are in a 3-way tie for 5th, 6th, and 7th, trail Boston and those other three teams already mentioned, but not yet by a large amount: the season is still too young to be "cemented in stone".

The Blazers are in 9th and are not completely out of it according to RTR, but after injury adjustments are applied they would most definitely be out of this years's Quest. The Spurs are surprisingly uncompetitive with the very best teams this year.

BRIEF EXCERPTS FROM THE EXTENSIVE USER GUIDE FOR REAL TEAM RATINGS
Remember that the Real Team Ratings (RTR) is NOT simply a rating of how well the teams are doing in the regular season. Instead, it is a rating system designed to reveal the capability of winning playoff games and series of each team.

The foundation of RTR is defensive efficiency, offensive efficiency, and net per game points differential. On top of these, several careful and statistically valid adjustments are made to allow the RTR to accurately reflect some of the known factors that always impact winning in the playoffs. Factors that usually impact winning are NOT included; only factors that always impact winning are included.

RTR CAN be roughly used to predict who will win playoff series. However, there are of course factors not included in the RTR. One factor not included can be huge and can easily switch a series: injuries. Among factors not included in RTR that always impact winning playoff games, injuries is by far the biggest one.

INTERPRETING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TEAMS
SCALE ASSUMING THE HIGHER TEAM HAS HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
Important Note: Injury adjustments are not included. For larger differences, the higher rated team would almost always have to have injury problems in order to lose. The probabilities shown reflect the risk of injuries as much as all other uncertain factors combined.

0 to 5.9 Complete toss-up: flip a coin
6 to 11.9 Roughly 60% chance the higher team will win
12 to 17.9 Roughly 70% chance the higher team will win
18 to 23.9 Roughly 80% chance the higher team will win
24 to 29.9 Roughly 89% chance the higher team will win
30 to 35.9 Roughly 95% chance the higher team will win
36 to 41.9 Roughly 98% chance the higher team will win
42 to 47.9 Roughly 99% chance the higher team will win
48 or more Roughly 100% chance the higher team will win

SCALE ASSUMING THE LOWER TEAM HAS HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
Important Note: Injury adjustments are not included. For larger differences, the higher rated team would almost always have to have injury problems in order to lose. The probabilities shown reflect the risk of injuries as much as all other uncertain factors combined.

0 to 5.9 Complete toss-up: flip a coin
6 to 11.9 Complete toss-up: flip a coin
12 to 17.9 Roughly 60% chance the higher team will win despite not having home court advantage.
18 to 23.9 Roughly 70% chance the higher team will win despite not having home court advantage.
24 to 29.9 Roughly 80% chance the higher team will win despite not having home court advnatage.
30 to 35.9 Roughly 89% chance the higher team will win despite not having home court advnatage.
36 and more: Will neve rhappen because whenever the difference is this much the higher team will have the home court advantage 100% of the time.

MANUAL INJURY ADJUSTMENTS
We have developed an injury adjustment for RTR, which is extensively described in the User Guide. Currently, injury adjustments have to be done manually using instructions in the User Guide. This will be required indefinitely, because it appears to be more trouble than it's worth to include the "injury adjustment" in the RTR itself.

There are many complications involving the impact of injuries on who is going to win playoff games. I'll mention a few of them. One huge problem is that the injury situation changes more rapidly than any of the other factors. Another problem is that early season injuries are no where near as bad for the playoffs as are late season injuries. Yet another problem is that there always seems to be conflicting information out there about just how bad different injuries are.

COACHING
Another significant factor that is not completely included in RTR is coaching that is more successful in the regular season than in the playoffs. Certain coaches deploy offensive and/or defensive strategies in the regular that do not work as well in the playoffs as they do in the regular season. A team using this kind of strategy makes the playoffs but sooner or later gets bounced in the playoffs by a team using one or more strategies rewarded by basketball.

In other words, and more broadly, it is believed by us here at Quest that how a team is coached, and what schemes it is using on offense and defense, can have a different impact in the playoffs than it did in the regular season. This would not be picked up by the RTR.

The negative impact on RTR of such coaching is believed to be between small and not so small, up to about 20 RTR points. A 15-20 point hit would be plenty big enough to swing any close series. Coaches who coach well in the regular season but not in the playoffs will cost their teams playoff series they probably could have won, although this will not happen in every series. It will happen mostly in series where the RTR differential is between 5 and 20 points. This type of coaching will certainly be in the long run ruinous to the objective of going as far as possible in the playoffs.

One of the primary objectives of the Quest for the Ring is to identify and explain offensive and defensive strategies that work better in the regular season than they do in the playoffs, and vice versa.

Other than missing the regular versus playoffs coaching differential, coaching is mostly reflected in the RTR.

Factors other than injuries and coaching that are not in the RTR are believed at this time to be small and probably insignificant.

This has been a very small sample of what is in the User Guide. For complete details regarding how the Real Team Ratings are designed and why they work, see the User Guide.