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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The 2009 Production Plan: What and When Quest for the Ring Produces

=======INTRODUCTION TO AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PRODUCTION PLAN=======
First, what is a production plan? It is a plan that details the types of reports produced, the number of each type of report that we would like to produce, and the planned calendar schedule for them.

Ideally, all such plans would be exactly met: the number of reports planned would actually appear, and they would appear according to schedule. Prior to this version, Quest Production Plans were based on this perfectionist ideal. During the first two years of Quest (which was born on the Internet in April 2007) there were three distinct Production Plans were produced, but each one was totally unrealistic, quite honestly.

In fact, those earlier Plans were ridiculous and were really not very useful, not only due to factors that continue on today that will be discussed shortly, but especially due to the inherent explosive instability of a brand new Internet site fueled in the early months by a large amount of ambition but few specific guiding objectives. Making production plans in the early months of Quest was equivalent to making plans for a garden party at a house while the house is on fire!

To be more specific, during the first two years of Quest, there was an explosion of report types and an explosion of available features for that exploding number of report types. Production planning in such a quickly changing context is obviously absurd. So naturally, all of the early production plans failed miserably.

BUT NOW WE CAN MAKE A PLAN THAT WON'T BE DEAD ON ARRIVAL....
It is strongly believed that the rate of new Quest content and features is permanently lower from now going forward, simply because most of the best possible stuff has already been created. A new era characterized much more by improvements of existing reports and features is now here to stay.

Therefore, and in light of the crucial value of production plans (more on this shortly) Quest is presenting this new 2009 What we Produce Production Plan.

THIS PLAN WILL FAIL TOO BUT IT WILL BE A LOT CLOSER THIS TIME
Unfortunately, although we expect this new production plan to be far more realistic than earlier ones, we do not expect this one will be closely achieved. But it will be achieved to some extent and much more so than the previous Plans. And the crucial importance of having a production plan that is as realistic as possible trumps not being able to meet it closely.

In real life, it will never be possible to exactly meet any production plan. The objective is always going to be to meet as many of the specific plans as possible, and to get as close as possible to meeting the plan overall.

Reasons plans can not always be met, even after a site is no longer exploding new types of content, are numerous. They include uncertainty about the overall time resources available.

Another major reason why this new production plan will probably not be closely achieved is that although we have adjusted as much as possible for the issue, Quest ambitions are most likely still out of proportion to available resources.

Due just to large-scale uncertainty about time resources alone, it can be argued that specific production planning is a waste of time. However, production planning remains very necessary, crucial really. Having no production plans leads to day to day confusion about what to produce.

More broadly, and in the longer term, having no specific production plans will eventually lead to the site losing focus, or in other words losing ability to meet preset objectives. Once the site loses focus on these things, the danger that the site will "die out" completely greatly increases. In summary, a site needs to keep this process going: mission >> objectives >> production plans >> focus >> meeting objectives >> Site continues indefinitely.

Therefore, for most of the reports, even though we know we won't be able to produce everything specified, we have to and do provide estimates of the number of each type of report that will be produced, and when they will appear. A likely length range is also given for most types of text reports (expressed in terms of the number of words).

So always remember, the production plan details are not strict quotas, are not guarantees, are not promises, and are too often not even good predictions of what production will be. On the other hand:

--We are virtually 100% certain that some of the specific production plans will be exactly met. For example, you can bet the ranch that NBA Real Player Ratings will be produced according to the schedule and specs shown.

--We are virtually 100% certain that at least half of the production plans will be largely met.

--We are virtually 100% certain that most of the production plans will be at least partially met, with "partially" defined as 1/3 or 33%.

A new Quest what we Produce and When Production Plan will be done at least once a year. It is obvious that each new Plan will be more closely met than the one before, because we will have more knowledge about everything involved, including for example to what extent our ambitions can simply not be met without additional resources, such as at least one additional writer. The possible eventual addition of one or more carefully chosen new writers argues against making the Plan cautious and conservative.

THE QUEST FOR THE RING PRODUCTION PLAN AS OF AUGUST 1, 2010
REPORT CATEGORY: TEXT REPORTS
As you might expect, Text Reports are considered to be the most important of all types, and this type of Report receives more production time than any of the others.
There are two sub-categories: Playoff Season Text Reports and Regular Season Text Reports. The Quest Regular Season runs from December 11 through April 19 each year. The Quest Playoff Season runs from April 20 through December 10 each year.
Many but not all types of Text Reports are produced only in one or the other Season, but certain types of Text Reports may appear at any time.

MULTIMEDIA ADD-ONS TO REPORTS
Some reports are accompanied by photos and, beginning in the spring of 2009, some Reports include video jukeboxes offering about 50 YouTube videos to choose from, with the subject usually being a team or an important player. Another video add-on can simply be the inclusion of one or more selected videos. Also, slideshows can and occasionally will now be added to some reports. Multimedia add-ons are due to become much more common beginning in the fall of 2009.

=======REPORT CATEGORY: REGULAR SEASON TEXT REPORTS=======
FAST BREAK
A Fast Break is a text report of less than 800 words. This is a fast break type of posting, a short post needed to be pushed out the door quickly to be timely. In the great majority of cases, a fast break posting is followed up by much longer articles that will contain a lot of proof for any points made in the fast breaks. Remember that many Quest reports have much more detail than this one; Quest for the Ring prides itself on game, team, and League breakdowns that are as long as necessary to make and prove the points. Fast Breaks are especially useful to comment on major breaking news in a timely fashion.

This type of Report can appear in either season (year round). In fact, this type of Report is just as common in the Playoff Season as it is in the Regular Season.

Approximately 30 such Reports are expected to be produced per year, or 2.5 each month.

REGULAR SEASON FULL REPORTS
(The regular season is from December 11 through April 19)
Regular Season text reports are at least 800 words long and can be up to 4,000 words long. Most Regular Season text reports are between 1,000 words and 3,000 words long.
The overall average length of all such reports is approximately 2,200 words.

Subject matter can be anything that relates to pro basketball, as long as it to one extent or another relates to discovering and explaining how NBA games, especially playoff games, are won. Quest reports are known for being loaded with at least as much proof as is needed to prove the points and the proof very often consists, at least in part, of custom, advanced statistical information.

TYPES OF REGULAR SEASON FULL REPORTS
ANNUAL TEAM REPORT
Annual Team Reports are short by Quest standards, although still longer than this type of report done by other general NBA writers. Annual Reports for the 21-24 non-contending teams are between 1,200 and 1,400 words. Annual Reports for the six to nine contending teams are between 1,500 and 1,750 words.

Each annual report focuses a lot on what the team players, coaches, and managers are doing right, and at least as much on what they are doing wrong with respect to the objective of winning playoff games.

One of these is done for each contending team, and other teams are selected such that the total number of annual reports is expected to be 20. The following year, any team that did not have an annual report the prior year will definitely get one.

These twenty reports are to be produced and released at the pace of one every three days, over a total of 60 days. These 20 Reports are to be produced and released between December 11 and February 8 of each year.

MAJOR CONTENDER TEAM REPORT
This is probably the most important single type of report appearing during the regular season (which you will recall is December 11 through April 19). Also, this is the one report which is most closely related to the conception behind Quest Reports in the first year.

There are usually only going to be two, three, or in unusual circumstances, at most, four major contenders. Quest specializes in two of the major contenders during the regular season. Quest is first and foremost about how teams win or lose NBA playoff games, so this type of Report is heavily focused on what the major contending team
is doing right and what it is doing wrong with respect to the prospect of winning playoff games.

Occasionally, specific games will be discussed in detail. More commonly, whether the team as a whole, managers, coaches, and key players on it are strategically and/or tactically correct is extensively discussed.

Team reports not only cover players and coaches, but also discuss the performance of managers with respect to what they have done right or wrong with respect to the team's prospects in the playoffs. Quest looks beyond the trees to the surrounding forest as a whole much more so than do most other basketball sites.

Expect about one such report per week between January 25 and April 18 of each year. So, for each of the two specialization teams, expect one such Report every two weeks during that period. Therefore, in total, expect about twelve such reports per year, six for each team specialized in.

Generally, this type of report will be between 2,000 and 3,000 words long. The average length will be about 2,500 words.

PLAYER REPORT
A report about how a very important player is doing in the current season, with a review of that players' entire career via Real Player Ratings by year.

Expect about four such reports per year, one in January, one in February, one in March, and one in April.

Generally, this type of report will be between 1,500 and 3,000 words long.

THIS YEAR'S QUEST REPORT
This is a special, very valuable kind of report. This type of report, as the name implies, discusses the current Quest for the Ring. Specifically, it covers which of the (between six and nine) contending teams are on the right track and why, and which are on the wrong track and why.

This Report focuses on the six to nine contending teams and especially on the two or three major contending teams. Exactly what these teams are dong right and exactly what they are doing wrong is covered.

Expect about three such reports per year, one in February, one in March, and one in April.

LEAGUE REPORT
This is a report about the NBA, often involving economics and how the NBA fits in with society as a whole.

This type of report is relatively uncommon; expect two or three of these per year. This type of Report can appear in either season (year round).

SOCIETY REPORT
This is a report about society and how basketball relates to it and what basketball can teach everyone.

This type of report is uncommon; expect one or two of these per year. This type of Report can appear in either season (year round).

REPORT CATEGORY: PLAYOFF SEASON TEXT REPORTS
(The Playoff Season is April 20--December 10)
PLAYOFF SEASON REPORTS FOCUSED ON A PLAYOFF SERIES
PLAYOFF SEASON FULL REPORTS
Playoff Season text reports are at least 800 words long and can be up to 4,000 words long. The average length will be approximately 2,200 words.

The subject matter is generally a single, specific playoff series. The focus is on how and why teams win and lose playoff games.

Although specific game coverage is important and is a major part of these reports, how and why teams win and lose is a subject which goes beyond particular games. Therefore, focus is often on factors that are wider than specific games, especially of course on various coaching and management factors.

Quest reports are known for being loaded with at least as much proof as is needed to prove the points and the proof very often consists, at least in part, of custom statistical information.

TYPES OF PLAYOFF SEASON TEXT REPORTS
CHAMPIONSHIP REPORTS
One report for each Championship game is produced. Such reports are produced and posted during the series. Unlike for other series, expect the Championship Reports to appear one to three days after the game. Obviously, since the Championship is in June, you can expect these reports each June.

Generally, Championship game text Reports will be between 2,000 and 3,000 words long.

Aside from the text report, there is an Ultimate Game Breakdown separately produced for each Championship, Conference Final, and Conference Semi-final game.

EAST AND WEST CONFERENCE FINAL REPORTS
One report for each East Final and each West Final series game is produced. Expect the reports for the East final games to appear between July 1 and July 25. Expect the reports for the West final games to appear between July 26 and August 19.

Generally, this type of Report will be between 1,500 and 2,500 words long.

Aside from the text report, there is an Ultimate Game Breakdown separately produced for each game.

EAST AND WEST CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS REPORTS
There are four semifinal series, two in each conference. One report for each and every semi-final game is produced. Since there are approximately 23 such games, expect about 23 such reports per year.

Expect the reports for the East semifinal series (1 of 2) between August 20 and September 11. Expect the reports for the West semifinal series (1 of 2) between September 12 and October 4. Expect the reports for the East semifinal series (2 of 2) between October 5 and October 27. Expect the reports for the West semifinal series (2 of 2) between October 28 and November 19.

Aside from the text report, there is an Ultimate Game Breakdown separately produced for each game in each semifinal. Generally, this type of Report will be between 1,000 and 2,000 words long.

PLAYOFF SEASON REPORTS NOT FOCUSED ON A PLAYOFF SERIES
ANNUAL DRAFT REPORT
This is a planned new annual Report that strategically discusses the NBA draft in between 1,500 and 2,500 words. This is important, since it is very, very difficult to win the Quest while getting little from the draft and from younger players in general.

Expect this report to appear approximately July 5. It is not yet known how long this report will be.

ANNUAL TRADES AND ACQUISITIONS REPORT
This is a planned new annual Report that discusses the most important off-season roster moves made by teams, especially contending teams. In other words, this is largely a report about the roster moves made by the contending teams between the end of the last regular season and the start of the new regular season. Focus is most intense on the best players, the ones with Real Player Ratings exceeding .750.

Expect this once a year report to appear approximately November 5. It is not yet known how long this report will be.

FAST BREAK
A Fast Break is a text report of less than 800 words. This is a fast break type of posting, a short post needed to be pushed out the door quickly to be timely. In the great majority of cases, a fast break posting is followed up by much longer articles that will contain a lot of proof for any points made in the fast breaks. Remember that many Quest reports have much more detail than this one; Quest for the Ring prides itself on game, team, and League breakdowns that are as long as necessary to make and prove the points. Fast Breaks are especially useful to comment on major breaking news in a timely fashion.

This type of Report can appear in either season (year round). In fact, this type of Report is just as common in the Playoff Season as it is in the Regular Season.

Approximately 30 such Reports are expected to be produced per year, or 2.5 each month.

LEAGUE REPORT
This is a report about the NBA, often involving economics and how the NBA fits in with society as a whole.

This type of report is relatively uncommon; expect two or three of these per year. This type of Report can appear any time during the year.

SOCIETY REPORT
This is a report about society and how basketball relates to it and what basketball can teach everyone.

This type of report is uncommon; expect one or two of these per year. This type of Report can appear any time during the year.

=======REPORT CATEGORY: ADVANCED STATISTICAL REPORTS=======
ULTIMATE GAME BREAKDOWN
This is a statistical breakdown of a game, consisting of two main parts, Real Player Ratings and Real Game Ratings.

The Real Player Ratings are accompanied by the Real Player Production breakdown. You can see the exact level of performance of the players at a glance.

Real Game Ratings consist of about seven very important "advanced" statistical indicators, ones that are believed by top basketball people to be crucial with respect to how games are won and lost. Real Game Ratings also consist of three Quest custom-made statistical performance measures intended to show the offensive quality, power, and potential of NBA contending teams. These three custom designed offensive performance measures are called "play making identity," "play making quality," and "play making power".

In a Game Breakdown, there may be a short section for notes about how the game was won, but the vast majority of any discussion of a game will be in a text Report, not in a Breakdown.

Starting in 2009, about 95% of all Ultimate Game Breakdowns will be for playoff games. In the regular season, only a small number of crucial and interesting games, usually involving major contending teams, will be treated to a Breakdown.

Ultimate Game Breakdowns will be produced for all Championship games, all Conference Final games, and all Conference Semifinal games. Also, Ultimate Game Breakdowns will generally be produced for a limited number of carefully selected Conference Quarterfinal games (The Conference quarterfinals are the first round of the playoffs). Resources are not currently adequate to provide Breakdowns for more than about 15% of quarterfinal games. 15% of them would be about seven.

Scheduling of Ultimate Game Breakdowns of playoff games is parallel to the scheduling of text reports for those games. In the first 18 months of Quest, text reports and Ultimate Game Breakdowns were combined into huge reports that eventually grew to be more than 9,000 words long!

Championship Breakdowns are scheduled for June. Unlike for other series, Breakdowns for the Championship are intended to be produced and reported out within a day or two of each game.

Breakdowns for the East final series are scheduled for between July 1 and July 25. Breakdowns for the West final series are scheduled for between July 26 and August 19.

Breakdowns for the East semi-final series (1 of 2) are scheduled for between August 20 and September 11. Breakdowns for the West semi-final series (1 of 2) are scheduled for between September 12 and October 4. Breakdowns for the East semi-final series (2 of 2) are scheduled for between October 5 and October 27. Breakdowns for the West semi-final series (2 of 2) are scheduled for between October 28 and November 19.

Breakdowns for a small number of selected semifinal games are scheduled for between November 20 and December 10.

REAL TEAM RATINGS
This is an advanced, custom-designed statistical report based on an algorithm intended to reveal the playoff performance potential of all NBA teams, but especially, of course, of contending teams. Each team's Rating is based on close to a dozen factors that impact a team's playoff potential. Similar to as with Real Player Ratings, the individual factors are strategically combined together to yield what is intended to be an accurate and easy to use playoff projection tool.

There are between six and nine contending teams in any season, and between two and three major contenders. Teams that are contenders but not major contenders are nicknamed "wild card contenders".

Four Real Team Ratings Reports are scheduled as follows: Dec. 20, Jan. 31, March 10, and April 20.

REAL PLAYER RATINGS
There are several different types of reports featuring these ratings….

REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR THE NBA
All players who have played at least 300 minutes are rated according to their Real Player Ratings in a League-wide listing. Although each player's team is shown, players are not grouped by team in this version, but by evaluation scale category. So this is where every NBA player is rated and ranked in one place.

Other than the keynote Real Player Ratings, there are three other important ratings shown in this type of report: Total Real Player Production, Offensive Sub-Rating, and Defensive Sub-Rating.

Hidden Defending adjustments are made to three of the four series. These adjustments are not applicable to the Offensive Sub-Rating. Note that hidden defending adjustments are not possible for Real Player Ratings in Game Breakdowns. Nor are they possible for Ratings for a team for a single month. The adjustments are possible only where every significant player has played for 300 minutes or more.

Twice a year, Real Player Ratings are done for the entire NBA. This report appears AFTER all of the by team versions are rolled out (see the schedule for them just below). The two NBA-wide Reports are scheduled as follows: between March 27 and March 31, and between May 27 and May 31

REAL PLAYER RATINGS BY TEAM
In this report, all players who have played at least 300 minutes are ranked according to their Real Player Ratings broken down by team. Players are grouped by team in this version, and so there is no NBA-wide ranking here.

Other than the keynote Real Player Ratings, there are three other important ratings shown for the individual team: Total Real Player Production, Offensive Sub-Rating, and Defensive Sub-Rating.

Hidden Defending adjustments are made to three of the four series. These adjustments are not applicable to the Offensive Sub-Rating. Note that hidden defending adjustments are not possible for Real Player Ratings in Game Breakdowns. Nor are they possible for Ratings for a team for a single month. The adjustments are possible only where every significant player has played for 300 minutes or more.

Twice a year, Real Player Ratings are done for the entire NBA. The team by team versions are presented BEFORE the overall NBA version. The objective and plan is for one Team Real Player Report to be released daily over a 30-day (1 month) period. Specifically, Team Real Player Rating reports for all teams are to be produced and released as follows:

--Data is collected as of February 22, and by team reports are posted starting on February 24 and finishing March 25.

--Data is collected as of the end of the regular season and by the team reports are posted starting on April 24 and finishing May 23.

QUEST MAJOR CONTENDER MONTHLY REAL PLAYER RATINGS
This is a very useful Report which summarizes for you the quality and the quantity of the players on the major contending teams during specific months. You might be surprised about how much players can differ from one month to the next.

This type of report is especially useful for evaluating coaching, for example, rotation and starting lineup changes. Similarly, this type of report is very useful for determining who if anyone steps up after one or more players are not playing due to injury. Generally, this type of report, which straddles the very wide gap between Game Breakdowns and Seasonal Breakdowns, is extremely useful in seeing how things change when coaching and/or when the available roster changes.

For each of the two major contending teams that Quest specializes in, the objective and plan is that a monthly Real Player Rating Report is produced and posted for each regular season month. Specifically, expect a pair of such Reports in early December (for November) in early January (for December) in early February (for January) in early March (for February) in early April (for March) and in late April (for April). Therefore, expect twelve such reports per year, six for each major contending team.

Each such Report will feature ratings for the most recent complete month, and also regular season to date ratings. Other than the keynote Real Player Ratings, there are three other important ratings shown: Total Real Player Production, Offensive Sub-Rating, and Defensive Sub-Rating.

Since hidden defending adjustments require a minimum of 300 minutes of playing time, monthly Real Player Ratings for major contending teams do not include them. Therefore, these reports feature the legacy Real Player Ratings, which are technically known as "Basic Real Player Ratings".

=======REPORT CATEGORY: OTHER REPORTS=======

REPORT CATEGORY: SPECIAL REPORTS
Special Reports are either general or formatted.

GENERAL SPECIAL REPORT
General Special Reports are investigative journalism for pro basketball. Such journalism is rare to say the least. Most basketball writing is historical or opinions. Unfortunately, Quest has not yet been able to add to the extremely small amount of existing investigative journalism, since time resources for Special Reports have proven to be very limited. That might change in the future though.

Special Reports are posted on the Special Report page, and also on the Home Page.
Production of General Special Reports is highly variable and unpredictable. Anywhere from zero to twelve general Special Reports might be produced in a year.

Currently: there are two uncompleted Special Report series.

"Allen Iverson, What Could Have Been," is a long-term project that is roughly 30% done.

The other uncompleted Special Report Series is "The George Karl Fiasco". This is roughly 80% done, and so obviously it would not take a huge amount of time to finish it. Interestingly, the surprising 2009-10 Denver Nuggets season casts some new light on Karl and yields new, valuable information about him. So when the surprising 2008-09 Nuggets season happened, it was actually fortunate that the Series was not considered over and done.

FORMATTED SPECIAL REPORTS
Currently only one kind of formatted Special Report exists:

HERO OF THE QUEST REPORTS
Ten "Heroes of the Quest" are recognized each year. See the applicable User Guide article for selection criteria. Each Hero of the Quest designation will be accompanied by a posting which will feature important informational links, pictures, videos, a video player, and such other features as may be appropriate and available. The text will be short, less than 800 words.

Since most heroes are basketball players, and since many of the recognitions are mostly based on Real Player Ratings for a season, the recognition time frame is not calendar year, but rather from July 1 of one year through June 30 of the next year. The ten reports are to be produced and posted variably throughout the year starting after the reference year is over. So, for example, heroes recognized for 2009-10 will be reported out in the next time frame, between July 1 2010 and June 30 2011.

REPORT CATEGORY: MULTIMEDIA REPORTS
MUSIC BREAK
This will feature music videos that highlight usually one, but sometimes more than one high quality music artist or rapper. Music Breaks are sometimes started off with notes about site developments. Music Breaks are year-round. Expect roughly one per month but there is no regular schedule. It is possible that the frequency of the music breaks will occasionally be much greater than this, and/or that these will become more numerous in the future.

LATEST VIDEOS
Recent advances in internet capabilities allow for this new type of report, which generally consists of one or more video jukeboxes for an important team and/or an important player. An example of this type of multimedia report is the March 20 one for Rajon Rondo.

Latest Videos are year-round; expect roughly one per month but there is no regular schedule.

Videos and video players are also increasingly being included with many kinds of text reports; they will be found after all of the text.

REPORT CATEGORY: SITE REPORTS
INTRODUCING
This is a generally relatively short announcement for and detailed description of a new site feature, or of a major improvement of an existing site feature.

SITE USER GUIDE ARTICLE
This is information for visitors about site content and features and how best to use them. These articles are especially useful for regular visitors.

The most important User Guide Articles are updated from time to time and/or are completely reissued whenever a major update, planned or unplanned, occurs. Articles regarded as less important are updated if necessary but not reissued unless there is a rare change requiring this. Still other articles become legacy, and so notice is inserted that they have sunset. The ones that sunset are not deleted, however, in order to preserve Quest for the Ring history.

Most new User Guide articles and all important updates to existing articles are posted both to the Quest Home Page and to the User Guide page. For maximum reference convenience, there is a Site User Guide reader on the Site User Guide page and also on the Quest Home Page. Generally, the most important Site User Guide articles are found near the top of the reader (and also among the most recent posts) at the User Guide page.

REFERENCE USER GUIDE ARTICLE
Keep in mind that there are two kinds of User Guide articles. Site User Guide articles (such as this one) are on the Quest User Guide Site. Meanwhile, Reference User Guide articles are on the Reference Site.

As the name implies, a Reference User Guide is for explaining key content features. How and why the feature was developed and how best to use it are among the things included in a Reference User Guide.

One of the most important and the longest Reference User Guide is the one for Real Player Ratings This one is updated and added to on a regular basis.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...
The Quest User Guide page has many articles (including this one) that give you details about the site and tips about how to best use reports and features.

See the Real Player Rating Reference User Guide for complete details about the crucial Real Player Ratings and the other associated ratings.

======= PLEASE CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS =======
You Can Post Your Response to Anything on Quest Here

The User Guide for Real Player Ratings, and for the Defensive Adjustments, is located here. You must consult the Guide in order to fully understand the ratings and the value of them, and to understand how to make the best use of them.



BallHype: hype it up!





Unedited, Raw Game Notes are Here
DIRECT CONTACT ADDRESS
thequestforthering1 @ gmail dot com [Remove spaces and replace "dot" with an actual (.)
Use this address for the following:
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You Can Post Your Response to Anything on Quest Here