Denver Nuggets 2007-08 Real Player Ratings Updated to RPR 2.0

Keep in mind that the basic Real Player Ratings (RPR) do not include an adjustment for estimated missed shots forced. Therefore, it somewhat underestimates the the value of players who force the most misses, and overestimates the value of players who force the fewest misses.

DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS 2.0B
Carmelo Anthony 0.782
Marcus Camby 0.777
Allen Iverson 0.755
J.R. Smith 0.669
Kenyon Martin 0.588
Anthony Carter 0.570
Linas Kleiza 0.547
Nene 0.485
Eduardo Najera 0.480
Chucky Atkins 0.439
Bobby Jones 0.370
Yakhouba Diawara 0.342

Here you see that Anthony, Camby, and Iverson were all but tied, while JR Smith trailed them by about 13-14%. When these are adjusted for missed shots forced (later to appear here) Martin moves a little ahead of Smith.

With RPR 2.0, because of his careful shooting and ball handling, Anthony Carter moved very slightly ahead of Linas Kleiza. If you are willing to settle for a point guard who is careful with respect to both shooting and handling the rock, but who has never in history scored in volume, you could do a lot worse than Carter actually. Trouble is, Carter is alright for the regular season but will become a fairly large liability in the playoffs. But since no one else was ready to cover the PG position for the Lakers series, Carter should have been the PG for the duration of the series. Had Karl not made the boneheaded decision to abandon Carter, the Nuggets could have won a game, at least, as they did in the previous several years. That would have been better than the no wins at all that Karl left them with.

Notice that Jones and Diawara are less than half as productive as Anthony/Camby/Iverson. That mark (half the rating of the top 1-3 players on the team) is going to generally be the doomsday mark for players: if they are below it, they are usually going to be waived.

Here are the ratings under the legacy RPR:

DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS 1.0B
For comparison; once again, there are no adjustments for made them miss defending here.

Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.979
J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.607
Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.495

CHANGE IN RPR FROM RPR 1.0 TO RPR 2.0 AS SHOWN BY RPR 2.0B / RPR 1.0B

Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 0.717
Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.771
J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.713
Marcus Camby, Den C 0.850
Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.757
Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.719
Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.632
Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.809
Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.755
Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.610
Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.763
Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.691

From this last list, you can see that Marcus Camby and Anthony Carter had the smallest reductions in their rating numbers, whereas Bobby Jones and Nene had the biggest drops. Camby's missed jump shots, which have been bitterly criticized, turn out to be no big deal, not only because there were not as many of them as critics have imagined, but also because Camby commits very few fouls and relatively few turnovers, which gave him a boost in the new rating system.

Camby and Carter represent a group that you might call the more careful type of bball player. Coaches generally like this type of player, while some fans who think style is important usually dislike the style of such players to one extent or another. Fans who focus on style prefer more aggressive or devil may care types of players, although ironically, they will be the first to pounce on anyone who goes over the "line" and is seen to be reckless and impulsive rather than aggressive and hustling.

The difference between coaches and fans in how they look at the "careful" players is an interesting discrepancy. So what really is the best way to look at such players? A complete answer is beyond the scope here, but the most important trick is to on the one hand to never get hung up on style per se, but on the other hand, to never forget that even RPR 2.0 does not tell you for sure whether a player such as Marcus Camby fits into what you are doing or not doing offensively and defensively. Camby actually did fit the Nuggets fast break system very well, which is another reason why the Nuggets may be a losing team in 2008-09.

With the RPR 2.0, a much larger gap has appeared between Camby and Nene, though it must be remembered that health problems reduced the potential of Nene to one extent or another. Regardless of the health issues, the fact that Nene has played remarkably little over the last several seasons relative to his pay grade, and his amazingly low RPR 2.0 rating, makes it nothing less than a riverboat gamble for the Nuggets to try to rely on him as their starting center. They will have to get very lucky to have Nene at center work out well.

Steven Hunter would also be a riverboat gamble. In limited minutes, his RPR 2.0B is only .334!

The JR Smith reduction was about the same as the Kleiza and the C Anthony reductions, another sign that he is not the reckless and dangerous player that is in the mind of George Karl.