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Monday, March 24, 2008

The Denver Nuggets Shut Down and Defeat the Toronto Raptors 109-100

In a game where neither the Denver Nuggets nor the Toronto Raptors had a playmaking identity, the Nuggets trailed most of the way but made a few great defensive stops late and defeated the Raptors in Toronto 109-100. Raptor star PF Chris Bosh, back from knee problems that kept him out of 5 straight road games, all of which were losses for the Raptors, made too many assists and not enough scores. He was too unselfish. Denver playmaking was about as spread out among all players as much as you will ever see. If you try to beat the Nuggets while neither team has established playmakers, you are very likely to lose. The Nuggets love to use their huge talent bank in these kinds of games. Teams such as the Suns, the Rockets, and the Spurs would never be foolish enough to attempt to defeat the Nuggets without an offense with established playmakers. The Nuggets are the kings of scoring a lot of points against average and below average defenses while operating with no playmaking identity and with an almost totally unplanned offense. In other words, the Nuggets are the Kings of the local recreation center court.

The Raptors also, who are one of the best NBA jump shooting teams, and also one of the best 3-point shooting teams, need their best two playmaking guards to make at least half their assists, but in this game, PG Juan Calderon and PG T.J. Ford combined for just 10 of the 27 assists that Toronto made.

So with the Raptors you have a team that shoots well but doesn’t make plays well, a combination that almost makes your head spin. Oh wait, the Nuggets are another team like that, so no wonder my head spins a lot while I watch the games and report on the team. If you are keeping score, the Raptors are only the 10th best offense in the NBA adjusted for pace, while the Nuggets are the 11th best offense. Two peas in a pod, actually.

If the Nuggets are scoring more than 105 points a game and they are about 3rd out of 30 teams in gross scoring, then why do I spend so much time complaining that the team lacks this, that, and the other thing offensively? Because the Nuggets’ offense is very easy for the best teams in general, and for especially the best defensive teams in particular, to shut down.

So when you hear in the days ahead “No one wants to play the Nuggets in the playoffs, because this team is just plain dangerous,” don’t believe it. Teams like the Rockets, the Hornets, and the Lakers will be hoping to draw the Nuggets in the playoffs, because they know first hand how the Nuggets offense is built on a flimsy foundation, and can be severely throttled relatively easily with the extra motivation that comes from playing in the playoffs. Meanwhile, they don’t want to play the Warriors, who have a clear playmaking identity spearheaded by Baron Davis, and who demonstrated how dangerous such a well designed offense can be when they upset the Dallas Mavericks last year.

Neither the Nuggets nor the Raptors turned it over much in this game. The Nuggets, who are turning it over much less now that Iverson is running the point more often and running isolation scoring attempts less often, made just 7 turnovers in this game, while the Raptors made 11.

The game predictably started with the lineup that Karl has worshiped this year: Anthony Carter PG, Allen Iverson SG, Carmelo Anthony SF, Kenyon Martin PF, and Marcus Camby C. It has been rare for this starting lineup to be quick off the tip-off, and this game was no exception. The Raptors got off to a small but clear 15-10 lead half way through the 1st quarter. Since at least the start of 2008, the Nuggets have almost always looked clunky offensively and inept defensively in the early going, and it has often taken until J.R. Smith comes in before the juices start flowing and the offense shifts into high gear. The Nuggets made only 1 assist in the first 9 minutes of the game.

The Nuggets looked downright sleepy during an 8-2 Raptors run late in the 1st, before Smith came in; it was 23-14 Raptors with about 3 minutes left in the 1st. J.R. Smith finally came in at this juncture, ready to start cutting into the early Nuggets deficit as he has done in many games before.

With the score 35-18, Smith made his first three with less than a minute left in the 1st. Smith also drove to the hoop with a couple of seconds left on a fast break and was fouled and he made both free throws. Smith’s speed and intensity began to pick up the relatively sluggish and chronically unpredictable offense, and the uninspired defense, from the moment he came into the game. After Smith came in, the Nuggets stopped settling for jump shots too much and started cutting into the Toronto lead. After Smith went out late in the 2nd quarter, the Raptors started adding to their lead again.

Although Smith was no where near as successful in the 2nd half as he was in the 1st, he put the Nuggets on the right track offensively to eventually win this game. Meanwhile, Anthony Carter played poorly, both on offense and to some extent on defense. There is only so much magic you can get out of a player who has never been regarded a starter in the NBA until George Karl decided that everyone else was wrong.

I think I know another reason besides Smith not being in there why the Nuggets start badly almost every game. It’s because Carter is not a true starting PG in the NBA, and because Iverson uses the 1st quarter to feel everything out, including his team, the other team, and the referees, so that then he can decide how to divide his efforts between PG and SG the rest of the way. Iverson often looks strangely hesitant in the early going, which matches my theory.

At the half, it was 54-46 Raptors, as they shot 57% and the Nuggets only 41% in the 1st half. By the end of the game though, the Nuggets would almost catch the Raptors in shooting %, and they ended up beating the Raptors at their own game, three-point shooting, as they made 11/22 threes while Toronto only managed to make 8/24. Iverson was an amazing 5/8 from beyond the arc, and Smith was 2/4.

As the game went along, Kenyon Martin more and more put the Nuggets on the right track defensively. Martin was guarding Chris Bosh most of the time and his defending was outstanding. K-Mart’s shooting varies substantially from game to game, but overall it’s been outstanding this season as well. But the whole Nuggets squad came out in the 2nd half with defensive energy, while the Raptors were mostly standing around.

The Nuggets spent the whole 3rd quarter gradually eliminating the Raptors lead. Carmelo Anthony started hitting midrange jumpers, Iverson started hitting fade aways and making layups off picks, and J.R. Smith was busy doing “little things” like chasing down loose balls and taking a charge. It was 73-71 after three quarters.

Early in the 4th quarter, Iverson and the Nuggets in general started hitting a bunch of threes, which gave them an 85-80 lead with about 8 minutes to play. However, the Raptors scored the next 8, as the Nuggets overdid the three points shooting attempts. But Melo was still hitting, and with 5 1/2 minutes left, it was 89-88 Nuggets. Martin tied up Bosh with about 5 to play. Then Bosh was blocked by Martin, but committed his 5th foul by coming down on Bosh.

An Jose Calderon three with 3:45 left made it 95-94 Raptors. J.R. Smith was then way off on an extremely long three attempt. Calderon then tried another three and missed, and Martin snagged the rebound. Then with about 3 minutes to go, Carmelo Anthony jabbed stepped and moved in on SF Jamario Moon and made a sweet short jumper; it was 96-95 Nuggets. But then SG Anthony Parker from the left corner swished a three, for 98-96 Raptors with 2:36 left. Then Parker fouled Iverson, who made both free throws, which tied the game. Then Moon tried a three and missed. Then Iverson made a cross court pass to Melo, who was fouled by Jamario Moon. Melo made both free throws, so it was 100-98 Nuggets with 1:50 to go.

Late in the fourth quarter, it was all Nuggets, as Kenyon Martin led the almost total shut down of the easy to shut down Raptors offense. (See, it works the other way too sometimes.). The ultimate defensive highlight was when Kenyon Martin literally stole the ball away from Chris Bosh, who was dribbling too high on the baseline with 1:40 left. The Raptors would never recover from that. Iverson then passed to Melo in the left post, and Melo looked like he was going to shoot over Moon, but he changed his mind and fired back out to Iverson who was at the center of the three point arc. Iverson fired the dagger that killed the Raptors; it was 103-98 Nuggets with 1:17 left.

The Raptors were still confused offensively. That’s right, they didn’t have a playmaking identity, you know this stuff now. So Kenyon Martin himself intercepted an almost aimless pass by Parker near the paint and ran off on a fast break the other way. He was fouled and made 2 free throws, for 105-98 Nuggets with a minute to play. The Nuggets also got possession, because a clear path violation was called. Moon knocked the ball away from Carmelo Anthony, leading to a breakaway dunk, but the Nuggets were still leading 105-100 with 45 seconds to play. Then the Nuggets used most of the shot clock, and the Raptors defense broke down enough for Melo to get open moving into the paint for a running jumper, which iced the game. The fancy dragons were all dead and the Nuggets’ playoff hopes were still alive.

NEXT UP
The next game will be Monday, March 24 in Memphis to play the Grizzlies at 6 pm mountain time. The Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights, while the Grizzlies will not be. So the Grizzlies will enjoy both the home court and the extra rest advantages.