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Friday, March 23, 2007

Nuggets Beaten by the Bulls at the Hoop at the Buzzer 109-108

With a little assistance from a no-call with about a second left on an over the back loose ball tip by Luol Deng, and alot of assistance from the Nugget's lack of rebounding and their returning to their heavy turnover routine, the Chicago Bulls won the game with 2 tenths of a second left on a tip in by backup PF Tyrus Thomas, and stopped the Nuggets from winning six straight. Denver was leading 108-107 with 10 seconds left when SG Ben Gordon missed a jumper from the right corner. Melo had Deng boxed out on the left side of the hoop but Deng, who had 14 rebounds to 2 for Melo in the game, reached way over Melo's back to tip the ball back up a little, and there was no other Nugget positioned correctly dead center or just to the right of the basket to stop Tyrus Thomas, who was positioned there, from tipping it up and in with less than a second left. As in football, referees in basketball are very reluctant to call fouls when a game is on the line with less than 10 seconds to play, so this was one of those games where you could argue for hours and hours about who really won.

In the first quarter the Nuggets came out highly motivated to try to continue their transformation from a team that figures out a way to lose too often to a contender in the West. They took a 34-28 lead after the 1st quarter. The 2nd quarter was turnover city, and the Nuggets got beat by the home team in the quarter 27-17, so it was 55-51 Bulls at the half. Although the Nuggets fell behind by 8 early in the 3rd, by the end of the quarter, excellent jump shooting and drives to the hoop resulting in trips to the line by both Iverson and Melo, as well as a relatively few 4 turnovers, resulted in an 84-82 Nuggets lead going into the 4th.

In the 4th quarter, the Nuggets had just enough turnovers to make it very difficult to win it. George Karl has ordered the Nuggets to pass more recently, and he plays Steve Blake for most of every game for only one reason, which is that Steve Blake passes alot. But he had better remind his team to avoid passing whenever their instinct tells them that a defender is too close to where the ball would go in a pass, because the Nuggets are practically leading the NBA in having the ball (and the game) stolen from them. Passing is not always a good thing, and you should never pass just for the sake of passing.

The Nuggets led 99-92 with 5:43 to go, but that lead was gone in two minutes flat, and then there were a total of 7 lead changes down the final 3-minute stretch, with the last one being the Thomas tip in at the buzzer giving the Bulls the win. During the final stretch, the Nuggets played some good defense, but they offset that with, you guessed it, additional turnovers. Incredibly, the Nuggets had 4 turnovers in the final 3 minutes, whereas the Bulls carefully executed and had none. For the 4th quarter as a whole, the Nuggets had 7 turnovers and the Bulls just 3. So the Nuggets were passing and shooting and driving to the hoop aggressively and intelligently, but they were not careful enough about protecting the ball and losing possessions and so they left their door open so they could be robbed at the buzzer.

You could also argue a very long time about who deserved to win this game. Although the Bulls had 21 offensive rebounds to just 10 for the Nuggets and although the Nuggets had 22 turnovers to 15 for Chicago, the Nuggets did play some defense and continued to have an impressive, balanced offense. The Nuggets were a very efficient 41/74, or .554, while holding the Bulls to .465 on 47/101 shooting. Aside from being dominated on the boards, the other reason the Nuggets had so few shots compared with the Bulls was that the Bulls were whistled for 21 fouls, versus 18 for the Nuggets, and more of the Bull's fouls were shooting fouls. The Nuggets made almost all of their free throws, 21/24, with Nene getting 4/5 and both A.I. and Melo making 8/9.

Looking at players, Nuggets fans might look at Melo's two rebounds and lay some blame his way, and/or look at the fact that Marcus Camby sat out the 4th quarter with back spasms, leaving the inside defense and rebound positioning and anticipation to the much less polished Nene, the much less experienced Kleiza, and the less aggressive Najera. The entire 4th quarter was custom made for a player like Camby to secure at least a couple of key rebounds and maybe a key block. With less than a second left and you are leading by 1 point, who other than Camby and maybe Yao Ming would you want at the hoop to prevent exactly what went down to cost the Nuggets the game?

But precisely because he is the only superstar defender on the Nuggets, and because he is in general an extremely well regarded veteran with alot of years playing cat and mouse with injuries, I reckon if Camby decided that it would be best to sit out the 4th quarter due to whatever perceived health problem or threat, than you as a coach would assume he is qualified to make such a judgment and probably not argue too much. On the other hand, I can imagine certain coaches trying to urge Camby to go back in at some point as the Nuggets small 7 and 8 point leads during the 4th quarter were quickly shredded by open jumpers and turnovers and the game appeared to be heading for a photo finish.

In any event, George "Scrooge" Karl's decision about three weeks ago to totally bench one of the very best rebounders in the NBA, Reggie Evans, clearly came back to bite him in this game, after Karl, during the 5 game win streak, appeared to have pulled off a small miracle by getting away with his numerous total benchings. It is true that if you are Melo playing even more minutes than usual, 39, you have to be at least a little lazy and a little too reliant on teammates with respect to fighting for rebounds if you get just 2 rebounds. But it is also true that had Camby or Evans been close to the hoop and positioned the right way on that play with a second left, it's hard to imagine that the Nuggets could have lost this game. But both Camby and Evans were sitting on the bench at the time.

With J.R. Smith held to 10 minutes and clearly under heavy threat from Karl regarding losing even those minutes if he hoists too many threes, Linas Kleiza provided virtually all of the three-point shooting for the Nuggets, and it was not quite enough. Kleiza was 4/7 and the team as a whole was 5/13. Meanwhile, the Bulls were an extremely efficient and damaging 7/14 from 3-point land, with both PG Chris Duhan and SG Ben Gordon 2/3 and PG Kirk Hinrich 3/8 from downtown. You might agree with the Reggie Evans benching, and it is true that Evans has no jump shot to speak of, misses half his free throws, and is subject to losing the ball too often. But to eliminate George Karl as a suspect in the crime of this loss, you would also have to agree with the coache's decision to hold J.R. Smith, who was one of the top 3-point shooters in the league until his shots were heavily restricted by Karl, to just 10 minutes or so a game.

In any event, no matter who you want to blame, the Nuggets have lost more close games this season than almost anyone, and, more broadly, they seem to always have the wrong players in the game at critical times, and the right players in the games during meaningless times. (Isaiah Thomas would definitely agree with the last part of that statement.) They way too often seem to have just enough turnovers to put a winnable game into jeopardy, or to lose it. When they were shooting badly and were badly imbalanced offensively, they would make up for it by dominating the boards, but still lose close games due to the sheer lack of points. For almost three weeks now, due to the emergence of Linas Kleiza, the continuing offensive development of Nene, the smarter shot selection of Blake, and Camby's improving jump shot, the Nuggets have been much more balanced and efficient offensively, only to still lose when they act like they have forgotten what a rebound is or when they turn it over a gazillion times.

Being a Nuggets fan this year is subjecting yourself to alot of frustration, because here you have a team that is statistically much better than it's record, but seems to be unable to put a complete package on the court for very many games. If you didn't know any better, you might think the Nuggets have a strange desire to make sure that the other team is amost always able to win the game by taking advantage of whatever big shortcoming the Nuggets are featuring, with the most common shortcomings featured being very poor shooting outside of Melo, A.I., and maybe someone else, poor rebounding, poor possession protection, and poor defense. To beat the Nuggets, a team simply takes full advantage of whatever the Nuggets have decided not to do on a given night and burn 'em for it.

The fans are frustrated because they don't understand why the Nuggets always seem to do, or not do, just enough to put themselves in a position to lose. And basketball analysts are dumbfounded by the Nugget's inconsistencies and can not anymore even hazard a reasonable guess as to the fate of these Nuggets. Any commentator who says the Nuggets are plain bad (Charles Barkley, for example) looks like a fool within a week or two, but any commentator who says the Nuggets are solid and are going to contend in the West next year if not this year, also will look like a fool within a week or two. The Nuggets fate this season could be anything from failing to make the playoffs at one extreme to appearing in the Western Conference final at the other extreme. The Nuggets are Team Mystery.

For now, Melo's leading the NBA in scoring is history, as Kobe Bryant has left Melo in the dust by making history and scoring 165 points in the three Laker games since the poor one in Denver one week ago. As a result of Bryant's historic week, and the Nugget's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory shown so well in tonight's game, the Nuggets have fallen behind the Lakers again for the 6th seed in the playoffs. However, assuming the Nuggets can hold the 7th seed, it might work to their benefit; they seem to match up better against the Suns, who the 7th seed will probably play in the playoffs, than against the Spurs, who the 6th seed will probably play.

Kleiza played for 22 minutes and was 4/10 and 4/7 on 3's for 12 points, and he had 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and a block. Najera played 24 minutes and was 2/5 for 4 points, and he had 6 steals, 6 rebounds, a block, and an assist. Although Najera does not score enough, he is one of the only Nuggets whose caution keeps his turnover count very low.

Steve Blake played 37 minutes and was 2/4 and 0/1 on 3's for 4 points, and he had 9 assists, 4 rebounds, and a steal.

J.R. Smith played only 10 minutes and was 3/5, 0/1 on 3's and 1/1 from the line for 7 points.

Nene played 37 minutes and was 7/9 and 4/5 from the line for 18 points, and he had 12 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 3 assists.

Camby played 27 minutes and was 2/4 for 4 points, and he had 8 rebounds, 3 blocks, 3 assists, and a steal.

Melo played 39 minutes and was 10/19, 0/2 on 3's, and 8/9 from the line for 28 points, and he had 3 assists, 2 rebounds, and a steal. Melo was an excellent 6/13 on jumpers.

A.I. played 40 minutes and was 11/18, 1/2 on 3's, and 8/9 from the line for 31points, and he also had 6 assists, 2 rebounds, and a steal. A.I. was an excellent 6/12 on jumpers.

The next game is Friday, March 23 in Toronto to play the Raptors at 5 pm mountain time.