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Wednesday, January 3, 2007

Suspensions Cost Nuggets a 2nd Game, to 76'ers 108-97

The Nuggets are the NBA's most confused team right now. The lineup has changed so many times over the past three weeks due to multiple injuries, the two huge suspensions, and the Iverson for Miller trade, that it has been impossible to establish dependable plays for the offense, plays where everyone is on the same page. The guy with the ball is supposed to be familiar with where everyone usually is on the court, and to know where everyone on the court likes to run a play from.

More generally, no one knows what their role is. How does a running team succeed when who runs where and when is not worked out? It doesn't.

Tonight's 22 turnovers shows how confused the Nuggets are right now. The coaching staff can only reduce the confusion; there is going to be alot of confusion on this team until about the end of February. Nuggets fans can be happy, though, that the season is long, so that the confusion should be over weeks before the playoffs start.

The Nuggets are now like a pick-up neighborhood team having to play professional teams whose roster has not changed much. The continuing Nene knee saga and the Camby injury has been adding alot to the confusing mess that has been the Nugget's roster, as has Iverson's complicated calculation as to what role to play during the suspensions.

Iverson is clearly trying to avoid taking too many shots, because he has decided that his reasonable role on the full roster is as a more traditional point guard, not as someone who has to take 30 shots as the only chance to win games. Trouble is, some of these games during the suspensions may be winnable ONLY if Iverson in fact does take 30 shots. Iverson had two technical fouls in tonight's miserable loss, the last one when the game was all but over with less than two minutes to play. I'm thinking his frustration was partly that he realized, at about that time, when it was too late, that his putting 30 shots up might have changed the outcome.

The suspensions to Melo and J.R. Smith are now threatening to take a much larger toll than many thought when Iverson arrived on the team, because of the large scale confusion on the court regarding who is doing what when.

There are some second team players who are trying to make up a starting role for themselves as they go along, almost always unsuccessfully. George Karl is very stingy with playing time for unproven second teamers, so a player like DerMarr Johnson(GF) does not have the recent playing time experience to be able to produce reliably in these suspension games. He was 3/7, and 0/4 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 8 points in 30 minutes.

Diawara(GF) has been on an extreme rollercoaster as George Karl has no alternative but to play the rookie major minutes. One game he can't hit the side of the barn, and the next game he is almost at a starter level. Tonight he was 8/16, and a huge 5/10 from 3 point land, and 2/2 from the line, for 23 points. He did his best on defense and had 6 rebounds and 5 personal fouls. All this after he had 1 point in 40 minutes on Sunday night. Diawara's yo-yo performances clearly show the turmoil the Nuggets are in.

Kleiza played 15 minutes, and was 2/7, and 0/2 on 3's and 2/2 from the line for 6 points, and he had 1 rebound. Evans had just 12 minutes, and he was 0/5, and 2/6 from the line for 2 points, but he had 9 rebounds.

Najera continued to confound Nuggets fans with his overly cautious approach to the suspension games. After being more assertive on Sunday night, he fell right back into near invisibility tonight. He was just 2/4 and 3/6 from the line for 7 points, and he had 6 rebounds.

The Nuggets have a weakness at power forward. Najera is too cautious about both scoring and rebounding. Evans is a rebounding machine, and he wants to score more than anything but, not only does he have trouble from time to time even from short range, but even his free throw shooting is in need of serious work. If you are George Karl, you have a dilemma at power forward. I guess his strategy is the best one, you just split the playing time almost down the middle and keep your fingers crossed. Tonight shows what happens when you get the weaknesses of both players on the same night: a disaster at power forward.

Boykins was 5/14, and 3/7 on 3's for 13 points, and he had 6 assists and 3 rebounds.

Camby started his second game after being out from the finger injury, but he has not yet reestablished the shooting touch that he had worked hard to get before the injury. Either he is still bothered by the finger, or he has yet to reestablish that part of his game, or else he has been preoccuped as the only defensive specialist on the Nuggets over the last two games. Due to some combination of those 3 factors, he was unable to score more than 8 points against the 76'ers. But with the deck on fire and everyone heading for the life boats, Camby was the only stable force on the Nuggets left, as he produced another all-star quality game on defense, with 16 rebounds, 2 steals, and a massive 7 blocks.

Iverson was under all kinds of pressure tonight. Aside from his dilemma about how many trips to the hoop and how many shots in general to take himself, as discussed earlier, he also had to play his recent teammates for the first time tonight, still being frustrated that the Sixers refused him any opportunity to give his input regarding how the Sixers should play and proceed as a franchise. Unlike, say, Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan, Iverson had nobody in the Sixers organization who would listen to his advice. So when the Sixers coaches appeared on his new home court, it was kind of like the relatives you hate the most coming for the holiday and staying too long.

A.I, with some of his rocket boosters still left unfired, was 10/24, 2/6 from downtown, and 8/10 from the line for 30 points, and he had 9 assists and 5 rebounds. But he also had 7 of the Nugget's turnovers.

It is scary to think that the wins against the Celtics and the Sonics were at least partly due to luck: both of those squads were depleted and the games were played in Denver. That has held the suspension toll to two games so far, whereas it could have easily been 3 or 4 with more to come.

SUSPENSION GAMES
Wizards WIN
Kings LOSS
Celtics WIN
Sonics WIN
AT Hornets LOSS
Mavericks LOSS
76'ers LOSS
SUSPENSION GAMES STILL TO COME
AT Clippers
Jazz
Bucks
Spurs
Rockets
AT Trailblazers
Cavaliers
AT Rockets

MOST PROBABLE RESULTS WITH NO SUSPENSIONS & NO IVERSON
Wizards loss
Kings win
Celtics win
Sonics win
AT Hornets win
Mavericks loss
76'ers win

So the Nuggets are 3-4 in suspension games but most likely would have been 5-2 had there been no suspensions and no Iverson. So the suspensions have probably cost the Nuggets two games so far.

In order to avoid serious suspension damage, Iverson, Camby and the roll of the dice second teamers need to produce a win this Friday night against the Lakers in Los Angeles. Iverson may feel the need to "take over the game" this Friday now that the full extent of the suspension nightmare is apparent, and we can only hope that he has the touch and avoids the high turnover count he had tonight.

So the next game is Friday, Jan 5 at 8:30 pm mountain time in L.A. versus the Lakers.