A QUICK AND PARTIAL DALLAS MAVERICKS TIMELINE
June 2005: the Dallas Mavericks break the hearts of north Texas basketball fans and lose, in Dallas no less, to Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat in the NBA Championship.
April-May 2007: the Dallas Mavericks embarrass the north Texas basketball fans by as the 1st seed in the West losing to the 8th seed Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs.
May 2009: The Mavericks, in a series covered extensively on this site, are defeated by the Denver Nuggets in a West semifinal, 4-2. Dallas Mavericks owner Marc Cuban, due to his crime of getting upset by the Nuggets playing fast and lose with the foul rules, is dragged through the mud by the Denver media, by fans in Denver, by Denver Power Forward Kenyon Martin, and by Denver Coach George Karl. (Hell, he was even dragged through the mud by a substantial number of Mavericks fans, which was especially uncalled for.)
June-September 2009: Dallas Mavericks owner Marc Cuban helps retrofit the Mavericks in the off-season in a very smart way, apparently succeeding beyond expectations of building a truly dangerous team. Cuban and his managers beef up the defense, the toughness, and yes even the swagger without sacrificing a dime on the already powerful Dallas offense.
November 25, 2009: The Mavericks travel to Houston where with this new and improved roster they decimate the injury-damaged but supposed to be very tough at home Houston Rockets 130-99. That is not a typo, the Mavs actually scored 130 points.
November 25, 2009: Mavericks Shooting Guard Jason Terry scores one of the highest real player ratings for a game you will ever see, a 1.703, as the Mavericks annihilate the Rockets in Houston 130-99. Terry was an incredible 4-4 on threes, 6-7 on twos, 3-3 from the line, and he had 10 assists and zero turnovers. When we look for players who deserve rings, that's what we look for. Jason Terry should get a Ring sometime.
November 25, 2009: Dallas owner Marc Cuban knows he has succeeded at producing a real contender, and licks his chops as he thinks about what a hurting his new team might put on the hated Nuggets and possibly even the Lakers later this season.
November 25, 2009: Quest for the Ring changes it's West final projection from Lakers 4 Spurs 1 to Lakers 4 Mavericks 2, and promises to keep watching what it calls "a dangerous potential threat for the Lakers' assumption that they will represent the West again in 2010, especially given the recent Lakers' tendency to take their sweet time before pouring on their offensive jets, and given that the Mavericks have already defeated the Lakers in Los Angeles 94-80, on October 30, and they did it more with defense than offense to boot. (Technically, the projections were changed about 10 days earlier than this, but it was not reported out in a Report until now.)
JASON TERRY: J.R SMITH BUT WITHOUT THE OCCASIONAL DISASTER ON AND OFF THE COURT, AND WITHOUT THE BAD COACH WHO HAS J.R. EVEN MORE CONFUSED THAN HE USED TO BE ABOUT HOW TO PLAY
Just how good are the Mavericks so far? The quickest way to gauge that is too look at offensive and defensive efficiency, the number of points scored and the number given up per 100 possessions. Dallas is the 8th best offensive team so far (108.5 points per 100) and is the 7th best defensive team so far (101.5 points per 100). The Mavericks' balance between offense and defense is as good as it gets; those high and balanced ranks instantly translate into their being a wild-card contender in the Quest for the Ring. (Wild-card contenders are, by Quest definition, the 4th through the 6th most likely teams to win the Quest.)
THE COMPLETE REVERSAL IN THE WEST WITH REGARD TO TEAM DEFENSES
Among possible West Conference contenders for the ring, bad starts on defense have been an epidemic so far this season. One abysmal defensive start was automatic, that of the Phoenix Suns. How terrible Phoenix is on defense is why Phoenix never was and is still NOT a team that Quest for the Ring can consider to be even a long shot contender. Keep in mind that when Phoenix actually did have a chance to win a Ring with a very heavy emphasis on offense, they were no where near as bad as they are so for this year on defense; they were 13th defensively in 2007, but an unqualified 27th at the moment.
Other bad defensive starts have been anything but expected. Despite the supposed upgrade of Emeka Okafor, the Hornets have been so miserable on defense so far that Byron Scott, their beginning of the season, Coach, is fired already. And with mega point guard star Chris Paul out for a month or more beginning in mid-November with a nasty ankle, the Hornets are in danger of dropping out of contention before 2009 is even over (although the Hornets did win a crucial game at home against the flavor the moment Atlanta Hawks the other night in New Orleans.)
Meanwhile, teams that were expected to be all about over weighting offense have started very surprisingly strong on defense so far. The Trailblazers were not at all solid defensively last year, but they are off to a very strong start this season. I do give Nate McMillan credit for that, but there are some things that McMillan is doing with his team that don't make any sense.
During the first 11 games of the season injury unavailability of Pau Gasol, the Lakers ramped up their already great defense to wring out some very tough victories. On the other hand, with no Gasol, the Lakers have been surprisingly bad offensively so far this year.
The Nuggets are chock loaded with raw talent on offense and decently loaded with defensive talent, but as you would really, really for sure know (laugh out loud) if you read Quest for the Ring, they are badly coached and they are off to a surprisingly slow start defensively so far. The Spurs too are off to what for them is a shockingly poor start defensively, although they are coming up somewhat now.
Finally, there are the Mavericks as we have discussed. Last year the Mavericks ended up as only the 17th best defensive team in the NBA, low enough to be vulnerable to losing to the Nuggets in the playoffs regardless of what half-baked strategy the Nuggets might employ. Whereas this year, as we have seen, the Mavericks are off to a very solid 7th best in the NBA defense, to go along with a very powerful offense that, given Rick Carlisle's excellent coaching track record, can probably only get better as the season goes along.
So in conclusion, continue to think that Dallas is not a real threat to challenge the Lakers for the West at your own risk. Because it appears at this early stage that they are a real, plausible threat to upset the Lakers in 2010.
The complete current breakdown:
CONTENDER BREAKDOWN AS OF NOVEMBER 26, 2009
CURRENT MAJOR CONTENDERS
Los Angeles Lakers--Quest Specialization
Cleveland Cavaliers--Quest Specialization
Boston Celtics
CURRENT WILD CARD CONTENDERS
Orlando Magic
Miami Heat
Dallas Mavericks
CURRENT LONG SHOT CONTENDERS
Portland Trailblazers
Denver Nuggets
San Antonio Spurs
Miami for sure and possibly also Orlando or Dallas should really be only long shots. Denver and/or Portland should really be Wild Cards. But simply put, Portland and especially Denver need new coaches to actually contend for the Ring.
Portland would also probably be a Wild Card Contender were it not for the suspect coaching of Nate MacMillan and his staff. (More on this in a later Report.)
Similarly, were it nor for substandard coaching, the Nuggets would be a Wild Card Contender this year as well, and possibly even a major contender, given Carmelo Anthony's strong superstar start and given a truly amazing amount of raw offensive talent that goes just deep enough on the roster to create a true monster of a team on paper, coupled with their decent up front starters and their potential second team surprise defensive superstars Chris Andersen and, were he ever allowed to play, Renaldo Balkman. Unfortunately though, George Karl virtually always underplays front court "reserve" players, in favor of (usually short) reserve point guards.
JASON TERRY ASKS: "DID YOU HEAR THAT, THE MAVERICKS ARE FOR REAL IN 2010!"
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
REGULAR SEASON GAME
NOVEMBER 25, 2009 IN HOUSTON, TX
DALLAS MAVERICKS 130 HOUSTON ROCKETS 99
BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games
MAVERICKS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Jason Terry, SG 1.703
Jose Juan Barea, PG 1.384
Tim Thomas, PF 1.346
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 1.155
Drew Gooden, PF 0.908
Kris Humphries, PF 0.898
Jason Kidd, PG 0.769
Shawn Marion, F 0.374
Rodrigue Beaubois, G 0.348
ROCKETS BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Carl Landry, PF 1.121
David Andersen, C 0.857
Luis Scola, PF 0.788
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.731
Chuck Hayes, C 0.411
Shane Battier, SF 0.352
Aaron Brooks, PG 0.124
Kyle Lowry, PG 0.059
Chase Budinger, SF -0.079
COMBINED SORT BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Jason Terry, DAL SG 1.703
Jose Juan Barea, DAL PG 1.384
Tim Thomas, PF DAL 1.346
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL PF 1.155
Carl Landry, HOU PF 1.121
Drew Gooden, DAL PF 0.908
Kris Humphries, DAL PF 0.898
David Andersen, HOU C 0.857
Luis Scola, HOU PF 0.788
Jason Kidd, DAL PG 0.769
Trevor Ariza, HOU SF 0.731
Chuck Hayes, HOU C 0.411
Shawn Marion, DAL F 0.374
Shane Battier, HOU SF 0.352
Rodrigue Beaubois, DAL G 0.348
Aaron Brooks, HOU PG 0.124
Kyle Lowry, HOU PG 0.059
Chase Budinger, HOU SF -0.079
EVALUATION SCALE FOR BASIC REAL PLAYER RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.600 0.699
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.500 0.599
Satisfactory Role Player 0.425 0.499
Marginal Role Player 0.350 0.424
Poor Player 0.275 0.349
Very Poor Player 0.200 0.274
Extremely Poor Player .199 and less
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REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Basic Real Player Production
The adjustment for hidden defending is not valid for individual games
MAVERICKS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Jason Terry, SG 54.49
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 41.56
Jose Juan Barea, PG 37.36
Tim Thomas, PF 33.66
Jason Kidd, PG 22.29
Drew Gooden, PF 19.06
Kris Humphries, PF 14.36
Shawn Marion, F 11.61
Rodrigue Beaubois, G 5.92
ROCKETS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Carl Landry, PF 32.52
Trevor Ariza, SF 27.04
Luis Scola, PF 22.07
David Andersen, C 13.71
Shane Battier, SF 9.86
Chuck Hayes, C 6.17
Aaron Brooks, PG 3.36
Kyle Lowry, PG 1.87
Chase Budinger, SF -1.58
COMBINED SORT REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Jason Terry, DAL SG 54.49
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL PF 41.56
Jose Juan Barea, DAL PG 37.36
Tim Thomas, DAL PF 33.66
Carl Landry, HOU PF 32.52
Trevor Ariza, HOU SF 27.04
Jason Kidd, DAL PG 22.29
Luis Scola, HOU PF 22.07
Drew Gooden, DAL PF 19.06
Kris Humphries, DAL PF 14.36
David Andersen, HOU C 13.71
Shawn Marion, DAL F 11.61
Shane Battier, HOU SF 9.86
Chuck Hayes, HOU C 6.17
Rodrigue Beaubois, DAL G 5.92
Aaron Brooks, HOU PG 3.36
Kyle Lowry, HOU PG 1.87
Chase Budinger, HOU SF -1.58
============== SUB RATINGS ==============
OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Offensive Plays
MAVERICKS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Jason Terry, SG 1.683
Tim Thomas, PF 1.081
Jose Juan Barea, PG 0.886
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 0.736
Kris Humphries, PF 0.714
Jason Kidd, PG 0.599
Shawn Marion, F 0.303
Drew Gooden, PF 0.239
Rodrigue Beaubois, G 0.166
ROCKETS OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Carl Landry, PF 0.930
David Andersen, C 0.775
Luis Scola, PF 0.579
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.501
Aaron Brooks, PG 0.310
Shane Battier, SF 0.241
Chuck Hayes, C 0.142
Kyle Lowry, PG 0.112
Chase Budinger, SF -0.176
COMBINED SORT OFFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Jason Terry, DAL SG 1.683
Tim Thomas, DAL PF 1.081
Carl Landry, HOU PF 0.930
Jose Juan Barea, DAL PG 0.886
David Andersen, HOU C 0.775
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL PF 0.736
Kris Humphries, DAL PF 0.714
Jason Kidd, DAL PG 0.599
Luis Scola, HOU PF 0.579
Trevor Ariza, HOU SF 0.501
Aaron Brooks, HOU PG 0.310
Shawn Marion, DAL F 0.303
Shane Battier, HOU SF 0.241
Drew Gooden, DAL PF 0.239
Rodrigue Beaubois, DAL G 0.166
Chuck Hayes, HOU C 0.142
Kyle Lowry, HOU PG 0.112
Chase Budinger, HOU SF -0.176
-----------------------------------
DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
All Tracked Defensive Plays
Does not include hidden defending because procedure is invalid at game level.
MAVERICKS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Drew Gooden, PF 0.669
Jose Juan Barea, PG 0.498
Dirk Nowitzki, PF 0.418
Tim Thomas, PF 0.265
Kris Humphries, PF 0.183
Rodrigue Beaubois, G 0.182
Jason Kidd, PG 0.170
Shawn Marion, F 0.072
Jason Terry, SG 0.019
ROCKETS DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Chuck Hayes, C 0.269
Trevor Ariza, SF 0.230
Luis Scola, PF 0.209
Carl Landry, PF 0.191
Shane Battier, SF 0.111
Chase Budinger, SF 0.097
David Andersen, C 0.082
Kyle Lowry, PG -0.053
Aaron Brooks, PG -0.185
COMBINED SORT DEFENSIVE SUB RATINGS
Drew Gooden, DAL PF 0.669
Jose Juan Barea, DAL PG 0.498
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL PF 0.418
Chuck Hayes, HOU C 0.269
Tim Thomas, DAL PF 0.265
Trevor Ariza, HOU SF 0.230
Luis Scola, HOU PF 0.209
Carl Landry, HOU PF 0.191
Kris Humphries, DAL PF 0.183
Rodrigue Beaubois, DAL G 0.182
Jason Kidd, DAL PG 0.170
Shane Battier, HOU SF 0.111
Chase Budinger, HOU SF 0.097
David Andersen, HOU C 0.082
Shawn Marion, DAL F 0.072
Jason Terry, DAL SG 0.019
Kyle Lowry, HOU PG -0.053
Aaron Brooks, HOU PG -0.185
DALLAS LOOKS LIKELY TO MAKE A 2010 RUN TO AVENGE 2005, 2007, AND 2009
-----------------------------------------
USER GUIDE
The Real Player Rating User Guide is a necessary reference for anyone who wants to truly understand the value of, the validity of, and the ways you can use the following measures. Moreover, you should become a regular visitor to Quest for the Ring if you want to get the full advantage of reading and using Real Player Ratings Series performance measures. The more you visit and check out ratings, the more quickly and easily you will be able to evaluate what you are seeing.
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