The Pistons, one of the very best NBA teams since the turn of the century, started 2008-09 with the core of Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince, champions all, and with an assumption among their fans that they would be winning at least two playoff series, enough to reach the East finals (presumably against the Celtics). But they ended the season in complete disarray and obscurity, routed by LeBron James and Cleveland 4 miserable routs to zero.
So what in the hell is going on in Detroit and who is most responsible for this rapid and chaotic downfall?
JOE DUMARS: A BRIEF HISTORY
Detroit Pistons General Manager Joe Dumars is basketball royalty and until now has seemingly had an almost perfect career both as a player and as a manager. Drafted 18th overall in the first round in 1985 he played for the Detroit Pistons for his entire career, from 1985 to 1999. He won two championships as a player in 1989 and 1990, and was voted the 1989 Finals MVP, averaging 27.3 points per game as the Pistons swept the Los Angeles Lakers in four games. The following year, he won accolades during the Eastern Conference Finals when, with Dennis Rodman, he was a cornerstone of coach Chuck Daly's "Jordan Rules" defensive playbook, which forced the Chicago Bulls to change their offensive strategy to include less of Michael Jordan and more of the other members of the team. According to Jordan, Dumars was the best defender he faced in the NBA.
During his career, he was selected to the All-Star team six times, and to the All-Defensive first team four times. In 14 seasons, all with the Pistons, Dumars scored 16,401 points, handed out 4,612 assists, grabbed 2,203 rebounds and recorded 902 steals.
As if that player history was not enough, then you have to really respect the manager history up until recently anyway. Dumars became the Pistons top manager in 2000, and consider the following remarkable history of playoff series wins:
For the record, and keeping in mind that if you win four playoff series in a row you have won the ring, seven year Pistons greatness run was as follows:
2001-02: Won 1 Series, Lost Semifinal
2002-03: Won 2 Series, Lost East Final
2003-04: Won 4 Series, Won the Quest for the Ring
2004-05: Won 3 Series, Lost the NBA Championship
2005-06: Won 2 Series, Lost East Final
2006-07: Won 2 Series, Lost East Final
2007-08: Won 2 Series, Lost East Final
In summary, the Pistons with Dumars as top manager won 16 playoff series in 7 years, 2.3 per year, in a League where more than half the franchises are incapable of averaging even one playoff series win per year, and in a League where it sometimes seems as if the Boston Celtics, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Los Angeles Lakers account for more than half of all the playoff series wins.
For the complete and I do mean complete statistical record of all of these good 2001-2008 Piston teams, visit the best (and easiest to use) statistical site.
DUMARS FINALLY MAKES SOME BIG MISTAKES, AND UNFORTUNATELY THEY ARE WHOPPERS
Can someone who has apparently had an almost perfect career suddenly make some big mistakes? You or I might assume no, but the answer is clearly yes.
Dumars is more to blame than anyone for the Pistons having tanked so badly in 2008-09. He jumped the gun on rebuilding too quickly, both by trading Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson in early November, and also by running his mouth way too often and way too soon about how "nothing was off the table" as far as sending any and all Pistons to other teams in exchange for God only knows who and for God only knows what draft pick to be taken later.
Unfortunately for Dumars and Detroit, basketball players, like the stock market, hate uncertainty. So the Pistons responded to the total uncertainty and the total lack of loyalty promoted by Dumars by raising the white flag and by packing it in for the season.
Although Richard Hamilton may have been extra negatively affected by not having Chauncey Billups to pass him the ball at all the right times and places, and although now fired rookie coach Michael Curry made a complete mess of things by not being able to settle on a starting lineup, or even on a type of starting lineup ("To be small or not to be small, that is the question, and I know not how to answer it" laugh out loud) it was Dumars who did the most damage of all.
The Quest Real Player Rating system reveals that that several veteran Pistons were no where near as good in 2008-09 as they were just one year previous, which spells out to me that those players decided it was not worth maximum effort in 2008-09.
So in short, the 2008-09 Pistons tanked, and they tanked badly.
The Iverson mess, which if you read or have read Quest reports you know all about, was the mess inside the mess. Pistons reporters and writers including yours truly often could not decide what is more important to spend time on, the Iverson mess or the overall Pistons mess. It ended up to be too much mess to take in at once. So those free to move on, including yours truly, did just that; the 08-09 Pistons were not really worth covering after the All Star Break.
Always remember this if you are a team manager (or a coach who the players know influences the manager): Never, ever, ever even hint that you are going to smash up a team and start over, because you are unnecessarily risking your players ramping back to "standard effort" rather than "maximum effort," whereas the latter is the only thing that can win you even one playoff series let alone more than that. Another reason to never do what Dumars did is that you reduce your team's bargaining power when it actually comes time to sign and trade for players, both because you have come across as desperate, so teams think they can beat you in a trade, and because no one wants to play for a General Manager who appears to not be very stable or loyal.
So now the Pistons lie in ruins, their 2002-2008 run over and done. Even Dumars himself is warning in advance that the Pistons are probably going to be losers over the next (who knows how many) seasons.
THE NEW PISTONS
Since life goes on, let's check out the Pistons transactions since the end of the season:
July 14, 2009 Acquired a future second round draft choice from the Denver Nuggets for guard Arron Afflalo, forward Walter Sharpe and cash considerations.
July 10, 2009 Named John Kuester coach.
July 9, 2009 Detroit signed guard Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva to a five-year contract.
July 1, 2009 Fired coach Michael Curry.
June 25, 2009 Detroit traded the draft rights to forward Chase Budinger to Houston for a future second-round pick and cash.
June 23, 2009 Milwaukee traded traded center Fabricio Oberto to Detroit for forward Amir Johnson
April 29, 2009 Excercised the the 2009-10 option on the contract of guard Will Bynum.
OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE TRANSACTIONS
Afflalo had an extremely low .386 Real Player Rating for the Pistons this past season, and Sharpe is a D-League type, so the July 14 transaction was a low level deal where Detroit is rebuilding and Denver is making sure they stay clear of the luxury tax despite all their expensive acquisitions doing the boom years.
The Nuggets decided not to give Dahntay Jones a contract, despite the fact that Jones was the 2-Guard starter both in the regular and in the playoffs, once again showing you that in Denver the right hand (the management) can and often does completely undo what the left hand (the coaches) have done. More specifically, the management loves J.R. Smith while the coaches (at least George Karl) hates him, although probably not as much as before.
Unfortunately for Denver, you will never win the Quest for the Ring unless the coaches and the managers are on the same page, with each taking actions that complement the others' actons, rather than cancelling out the other's actions. You have to have as many meetings as are necessary to make sure the coaches and the managers are on the same page. You can bet your last dollar that the Lakers do this.
RECENT ACQUSITIONS OF VETERANS
CHARLIE VILLANUEVA
REAL PLAYER RATINGS (RPR)
Career RPR: .751 Outstanding Player / Solid Starter Level
2008-09
RPR: .825: Star Player / Well Above Normal Starter Level
TRPP (Production): 1727.71
Offensive Sub Rating: .571
Defensive Sub Rating: .254
First Thoughts That Comes to Mind: This is a well above average player, more so offensively than defensively. You can imagine him on a Championship team, but a little more likely as a fantastic sixth man than as a starter.
BEN GORDON
REAL PLAYER RATINGS (RPR)
Career RPR: .706 Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start
2008-09
RPR: .737 Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start
TRPP (Production): 2210.55
Offensive Sub Rating: .540
Defensive Sub Rating: .197
First Thoughts That Comes to Mind: Good enough to start, but not good enough to start in a Championship. Not very good defensively.
FABRICIO OBERTO
REAL PLAYER RATINGS (RPR)
Career RPR: .572 Marginal Role Player
2008-09
RPR: .501 Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start
TRPP (Production): 339.05
Offensive Sub Rating: .353
Defensive Sub Rating: .148
First Thoughts That Comes to Mind: I simply don't understand the Amir Johnson for Fabricio Oberto trade. Looking at the ratings, this trade is grossly in Milwaukee's favor. San Antonio was cleaning house and considered Oberto as a bust they had to dump off. Tack on some more losses for Detroit in the upcoming season.
SCALE FOR REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS ADJUSTED FOR HIDDEN DEFENDING
Perfect for all Practical Purposes / Major Historic Super Star 1.100 and more
Historic Super Star 1.000 1.099
Super Star 0.900 0.999
A Star Player / A Well Above Normal Starter 0.800 0.899
Outstanding Player: A Solid Starter 0.750 0.799
Major Role Player / Good Enough to Start 0.700 0.749
Good Role Player / Often a Good 6th Man 0.640 0.699
Satisfactory Role Player 0.580 0.639
Marginal Role Player 0.520 0.579
Poor Player 0.460 0.519
Very Poor Player 0.400 0.459
Extremely Poor Player and less 0.399
The User Guide for Real Player Ratings, and for the Defensive Adjustments, is located here. You must consult the Guide in order to fully understand the ratings and the value of them, and to understand how to make the best use of them.
ROOKIES FROM THE DRAFT
Austin Daye F, 6-11, Gonzaga (first round)—Very versatile offensive player whose lack of strength will be a liability defensively. He’ll be an upgrade at the backup small forward spot.
DaJuan Summers(notes), F, 6-8, Georgetown (second round)—The Pistons view him mainly as a small forward, though he played a lot of power forward in college last season. Isn’t afraid to mix it up but needs to become a better ball-handler.
Jonas Jerebko(notes), F, 6-9, Sweden (second round)—The Pistons were impressed with his all-around game and size during a team workout and believe his best position is power forward. Can bull his way onto the roster with a strong summer-league showing.
Quest does not yet have a good, scientific way to evaluate college players, and we don't usually make subjective comments about player styles and personalities. The above comments are those at Yahoo Sports.
Although drafting and having good rookies is important, and is untimately a necessary component to winning the Quest, rookies can not possibly by themselves dig Detroit out of the hole it is currently in.
HAMILTON FOR A FRONT COURT PLAYER?
Since Rasheed Wallace bolted for Boston and Antonio McDyess bolted for San Antonio, the Pistons are grossly small up front until they get another front court player, which they are scrabling to do as we speak. Detroit has relatively limited resources for this task, so don't expect anything big, and specifically you can rule out the idea that Hamilton will be traded.
THE NEW COACH
As for the other Pistons transactions, they have a new Coach, John Kuester, who has been an assistant Coach in the NBA for 14 years, but will be the second rookie Head Coach in as many years for the Pistons, who decided they could not afford Doug Collins or Avery Johnson or certain others who would have come with a much higher price tag but also a much higher chance of long term success.
Dumars in the last three years has now cemented a reputation for being a manager who doesn't know what he wants in a coach, and/or a reputation for being a manager who doesn't give the coaches he hires enough time or enough rope to do their jobs. Three quality coaches: Rick Carlisle, Larry Brown, and Flip Saunders took care of the first seven Dumars years, but now Dumars seems to be drawing blanks and coming up more or less empty on the coaching front, which of course normally means losing seasons are on the way.
I don't know much about Kuester, but I do know that whenever a team "settles" for a head coach, meaning that it does not consider the position to be crucial for winning, it is asking for trouble and failure. So until proven otherwise, the default view of the Kuester hiring has to be that Dumars has made another serious blunder, which in turn suggests that Dumars had better start to think about early retirement so that someone else can take over before the Pistons become the Grizzlies of the East.
THE OVERALL VERDICT AS OF NOW
The Pistons are going to be a fairly major losing team this year, and they will probably be so far in the hole by next April that top free agents will be very wary of going to Detroit. Dumars should have kept his mouth shut and/or he should have kept Chauncey Billups.
And Dumars should have consulted a basketball economist, such as the one on staff here at Quest, about what the 2009-10 salary cap might be. The NBA caused a lot of scrambling among certain unprepared (in the dark?) front-office executives by lowering the salary cap to $57.7 million, $1 million less than a year ago. Dumars had projected the cap would remain status quo.
These days, Dumars is living in fear that the 2010-11 salary cap will be lower still, which will throw yet another huge monkey wrench into his grandiose and so far disastrous "Pistons Rebuilding Project" The funny thing is, the whole thing could have been put off for one or two years. And the other funny thing is, instead of changing the Pistons one careful step at a time, Dumars with his big mouth ended up blowing up the whole team as if it had been losing for years and years, the opposite of what the situation was.
So Dumars' perfect career would appear to be history, and the hole he has dug would appear to be a deep one.
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