Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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MAY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
How about a summary type of topic for a change? I'm only part-time right now due to being in the final stages of my huge real estate project/problem, so a broadly speaking topic fits my current time capability. (Every real estate project is also a real estate problem these days.)
Speaking broadly, the Nuggets and their fans have three ongoing nightmares.
1. The coaching staff does not know how pro teams win playoff games. Karl actually virtually admitted this in public!
2. The front court is essentially never healthy and in sync.
3. The back court is totally hosed up because there is no established, playoff caliber PG nor, shockingly, even an understanding among the coaches of the importance of the position.
The fact that the team won 50 games despite those crippling problems proves that this team mostly played their best under the circumstances this past season. But losing in the playoffs was obviously inevitable, and will continue to be so unless the above is solved.
As a rough estimate, solving any one of the above would get the Nuggets' current roster in line to win a playoff series. Solving two of the three could get the Nuggets to the Western finals. If all three were solved, the Nuggets would then and only then be candidates to possibly reach the NBA finals.
But these nightmares are ongoing. Currently there is no end in sight to these bad dreams. Let's hope the Nuggets wake up before they start returning to the 24-58 days.
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Does anyone know of a case in NBA history where a team had a different starting PG in the playoffs than it had for most of the regular season, and the reason had nothing to do with an injury, but was a voluntary coaching decision?
Update: Also, situations where the playoff PG was acquired during the season do not count; I'm talking about where both the regular season and the playoff PG were on the roster the whole year, and neither was injured for the playoffs, nor in the regular season for more than about 20 games.
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Thanks, but I updated my question; see above. I'm not interested if the playoff PG was not on the roster the whole season. Sorry I couldn't be more precise to begin with.
Oh, and if anyone doesn't know, yes, this is another of my little researches to prove that Mr. Karl is even more out there in I can't win a playoff game never never land than people think.
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Who was the regular season PG? And, were both him and Devin Harris not injured much during the regular and not injured for the playoffs? And were both of them on the roster for the whole year?
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Ok, so for the 2005-06 Mavericks, Jason Terry was the starting PG for most of the regular season, but Devin Harris started most or all of the playoff games at the PG? And neither had any substantial injury problems during the regular or during the playoffs, and both were on the roster the whole season?
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Well a check of what records are available confirm that Jason Terry was the starting PG for 80 regular season games, so if Harris was the playoff starter and if Harris was not substantially injured during the regular season, than this would be the second known instance of this seemingly insane thing, along with the 2007-08 Nuggets.
Isn't it interesting that Avery Johnson is currently out of a job due to dismal playoff results, allthough the sum total of evidence against him is actually less than the evidence against Karl? Just a coincidence that his name comes up here? I tend to doubt it.
Oh well, I guess if you are a big market team you get new coaches for lesser cause than if you are a smaller market team.
Any other examples, though, or are there just two known cases in the history of the NBA of this?
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A very interesting side question would be whether the Mavericks, who as I recall were supposed to win the Championship that year, blew the series by doing that backcourt switch. It's a side question for me but for Mavericks fans it may be a monster question.
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Exactly, with owners as well as people in general, there is a wide variation in attitudes toward success and relative failure. The owner of the Nuggets, Stan Kroenke, is a purring cat toward his staff compared with Mark Cuban. Obviously; they could not be more different owners in terms of how they evaluate the accomplishments or lack thereof of their staffs.
Someone should explain to Mr. Kroenke that there is a large untapped world of coaching talent out there, and that there is no law for example against Denver being the team that names Brian Shaw as head coach, who sooner or later IS going to be a head coach somewhere.
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A quick check of Wikipedia shows that there were 12 playoff teams from 1977-78 to 1983-84 and 16 playoff teams since then. That would be 468 playoff teams from 1977-78 through and including 2007-08, a span of 31 years.
I would be surprised if even 1 percent of those teams voluntarily started a different PG in the playoffs compared with the regular season with no injury or acquisition factors involved. If it was more than 1 percent, there would have to be 5 such teams, and I highly, highly doubt there have been.
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Karl so badly screwed this up that he drove me to a level of dislike for the guy's beliefs and basketball team management that I thought I would never reach. If screwing up a team was a crime, he would be sitting in jail right now, because he committed a real whopper this year, a major Class A Felony. This year's failure to put a PG on the court, which is what really happened if the truth were told, was even worse than the Martin benching in 2005-06 and the JR Smith tormenting and playoff benching in 2006-07.
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A never seen before team statistic cooked up by your Nuggets insanity specialist...
I took assists per game and divided them into pace, which is the average sum of offensive and defensive possessions per game, to come up with what I think I will call "Quality of Offensive Flow". I don't want to oversell it by calling it "Quality of Offense," because the quality of the offense is also determined by pace adjusted unassisted scores and other, lessor factors.
But this performance measure tells you to what extent the offense has an effective and efficient flow to it or, in other words, how many assists there are relative to the pace of the team. In still other words, this is going to tell you how effective and efficient the passing game is for each team.
Teams that rank high on this tend to be teams that:
1. Have good to excellent point guards.
2. Have good to excellent basketball offense coaching.
3. Have well designed offenses with some effective and efficient set plays included.
4. Have relatively unselfish players.
5. Are teams that basketball watchers most like to watch.
Teams that rank low on this tend to have the reverse characteristics and need to spend a lot of effort in the off-season trying to bring their offenses up to speed.
Unfortunately for those who think that offense is more important than defense, this measure by itself can not predict who is most or more likely to go far in the playoffs or to win the NBA Championship. But stay tuned, because in subsequent posts I am going to end up with a never published before measure that DOES give you a good idea of who is going to go far in the playoffs and contend for the Championship, and that reveals who the "pretender" teams are.
You can see that the Nuggets ranked a relatively high 7th in this despite the facts uncovered in my dismantling of the Nuggets point guard disaster. And they ranked a relatively high 7th despite the fact that Nuggets fans have come to believe that they have a team filled with selfish statistical padders, with Iverson leading the way. But like other apparent Iverson bum raps of history, an investigation shows that this turns out to be yet another bum rap. For the record: the Nuggets are NOT a team filled with selfish stat padders.
Charles Barkley was wrong after all!
And I never claimed that the Nuggets had a bad offensive flow. Rather, I claimed that the Nuggets could have a better offensive flow than they did have had they done the things I wanted them to do. At the very least, they should have had a better offensive flow than the Los Angeles Lakers, who do not by any stretch have one of the best point guards in the League.
QUALITY OF OFFENSIVE FLOW
Assists/Pace
1 Utah 0.3102
2 Phoenix 0.2808
3 Toronto 0.2683
4 New Jersey 0.2608
5 Los Angeles Lakers 0.2593
6 Detroit 0.2584
7 Denver 0.2515
8 Boston 0.2500
9 New Orleans 0.2466
10 Atlanta 0.2447
11 Portland 0.2431
12 San Antonio 0.2408
13 Chicago 0.2405
14 Houston 0.2399
15 Milwaukee 0.2386
16 Dallas 0.2365
17 Miami 0.2365
18 Indiana 0.2362
19 Charlotte 0.2359
20 Los Angeles Clippers 0.2329
21 Golden State 0.2300
22 Philadelphia 0.2282
23 Orlando 0.2266
24 Cleveland 0.2252
25 Seattle 0.2242
26 Washington 0.2220
27 Minnesota 0.2199
28 New York 0.2071
29 Memphis 0.2051
30 Sacramento 0.2047
By far, the highest quality offensive flow in 2007-08 was run by the Utah Jazz, with the Phoenix Suns a ways behind in 2nd. Jerry Sloan may be old school, but the quality of his coaching is mind boggling. The Toronto Raptors were third best.
The New Jersey Nets, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Detroit Pistons were just about tied for 4th-6th, and then the Denver Nuggets were the 7th best offensive flow team.
Rounding out the top ten were the Boston Celtics, the upstart and extremely well coached New Orlenas Hornets, and the young but very promising Atlanta Hawks.
The New York Knicks just wisely hired the Coach of the team with the 2nd best flow, the Suns, to coach their team that had the 3rd up from the bottom offensive flow this past season. That Coach, Mike D'Antoni, has got his work cut out for him.
Coming next: Quality of Defensive Flow of NBA Teams.
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Here are the actual points scored adjusted for pace (points per 100 possessions).
OFFENSE EFFICIENCY
Points Per 100 Possessions (2007-08)
1 Phoenix Suns 115.8
2 Los Angeles Lakers 114.9
3 Golden State Warriors 113.7
4 New Orleans Hornets 113.6
5 Orlando Magic 113.6
6 Dallas Mavericks 113.1
7 Detroit Pistons 112.5
8 Toronto Raptors 112.2
9 Boston Celtics 112.1
10 Denver Nuggets 112.1
11 Washington Wizards 110.4
12 San Antonio Spurs 109.1
13 Sacramento Kings 108.9
14 Utah Jazz 108.7
15 Portland Trail Blazers 108.4
16 Atlanta Hawks 108.3
17 Houston Rockets 108.2
18 Indiana Pacers 108.0
19 Cleveland Cavaliers 107.5
20 Philadelphia 76ers 107.3
21 Memphis Grizzlies 106.7
22 Milwaukee Bucks 106.6
23 Charlotte Bobcats 106.3
24 New York Knicks 105.6
25 New Jersey Nets 105.6
26 Chicago Bulls 105.2
27 Minnesota Timberwolves 104.9
28 Los Angeles Clippers 102.9
29 Miami Heat 102.2
30 Seattle SuperSonics 101.7
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If you combine the two above, you would have the best overall measure of how good each team's offense is, because you would be considering both the points and the assists per 100 possessions. Assists are important not only because it says so in the basketball training books, and because all good coaches want a lot of assists, but because assisted scores are harder to defend against in general and especially in the NBA playoffs than are non-assisted scores. Iverson on an isolation play gets shut down in the playoffs more often than he does in the regular season. And you can forget about making a long run in the playoffs if you don't rank high in assists per possession (quality of offensive flow).
So if we add the ranks above, here are how the NBA offenses stacked up in 2007-08:
REAL NBA TEAMS OFFENSE RANKING (2007-08)
Rank for Quality of Offensive Flow combined with Rank for Offensive Efficiency
1 Phoenix Suns 3
2 Los Angeles Lakers 7
3 Toronto Raptors 11
4 Detroit Pistons 13
5 New Orleans Hornets 13
6 Utah Jazz 15
7 Boston Celtics 17
8 Denver Nuggets 17
9 Dallas Mavericks 22
10 San Antonio Spurs 24
11 Golden State Warriors 24
12 Atlanta Hawks 26
13 Portland Trail Blazers 26
14 Orlando Magic 28
15 New Jersey Nets 29
16 Houston Rockets 31
17 Indiana Pacers 36
18 Milwaukee Bucks 37
19 Washington Wizards 37
20 Chicago Bulls 39
21 Philadelphia 76ers 42
22 Charlotte Bobcats 42
23 Sacramento Kings 43
24 Cleveland Cavaliers 43
25 Miami Heat 46
26 Los Angeles Clippers 48
27 Memphis Grizzlies 50
28 New York Knicks 52
29 Minnesota Timberwolves 54
30 Seattle SuperSonics 55
Note that the New Jersey Nets have a great offensive flow and passing game, but they just don't have enough guys who can score well to be a top offensive team. But if they ever got Carmelo Anthony....
The Nuggets were 7th in offensive flow quality and 10th in scoring efficiency, which made them tied with the Celtics for 7th best offense in the NBA.
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Okay, getting back to the new performance measure, here it is for defenses. Denver Nuggets fans may want to run and hide now. I'm warning you this is going to be disturbing to say the least.
Teams that rank high in this are teams that tend to:
1. Have good defenders in general.
2. Have smart defenders who know where to be and where to go on a play.
3. Have smart coaches who can help prepare a team to play smart and tough defensively.
4. Have players who are good at disrupting the flow of the other team's offense, up to and including forcing turnovers.
5 Have defenders who hustle a lot.
6. Have defenders who know how to play good man to man defense without fouling a lot.
QUALITY OF DEFENSIVE FLOW
Assists/Pace of Opponents
1 Phoenix 0.2061
2 San Antonio 0.2087
3 Boston 0.2098
4 Houston 0.2119
5 Dallas 0.2128
6 Detroit 0.2213
7 Indiana 0.2310
8 Los Angeles Lakers 0.2327
9 Utah 0.2338
10 Orlando 0.2342
11 Cleveland 0.2365
12 Chicago 0.2383
13 New York 0.2392
14 Portland 0.2408
15 Charlotte 0.2414
16 Golden State 0.2433
17 New Jersey 0.2453
18 Sacramento 0.2454
19 New Orleans 0.2455
20 Toronto 0.2469
21 Los Angeles Clippers 0.2472
22 Atlanta 0.2481
23 Miami 0.2500
24 Memphis 0.2553
25 Minnesota 0.2564
26 Seattle 0.2568
27 Milwaukee 0.2586
28 Philadelphia 0.2595
29 Denver 0.2617
30 Washington 0.2707
Oh my god, the Nuggets are almost dead last in terms of what offensive flow they allow! In other words, they allow almost everything compared to other teams.
I now have gotten to the bottom of confusion regarding the Nuggets defense. Some have been looking at points given up per 100 possessions, which the Nuggets rank surprisingly high on, and have been claiming the Nuggets defense is not all that bad. But they didn't know about this never seen before performance measure, which shows that the Nuggets are total losers when it comes to stopping scoring that comes out of passing and assisting. The confusion is now explained: the Nuggets are not anywhere near as good a defense as the points per 100 possessions given up suggests, because for one thing, in the playoffs, teams can run over the Nuggets simply by ramping up their passing game and assisting. This is exactly what the Lakers did; they passed and assisted more than they usually do to run all over the Nuggets.
The Nuggets have to become a smarter team defensively or there is no hope for them, because this investigation shows that they do hustle and try on defense, and they do have some man to man defending skills, but they get totally burned by a good passing game. They have to learn to rotate, defend the pick and roll, and guard the perimeter far better than they did this year or they will never get anywhere. The Nuggets are especially terrible in disrupting/preventing the 3-point shot, which becomes especially deadly in the playoffs.
Also, the Nuggets are going to have to force more turnovers if they hope to ever win in the playoffs.
This discovery also means that the Nuggets can not afford to be the fastest pace team in the NBA on offense, because they are almost clueless with respect to defending during a fast paced game. They would be smart to play at a much slower pace, so that they would have a chance to improve on their terrible defensive flow measure. I'll be discussing this in more detail in future reports.
The big shock here is that the Phoenix Suns edged out the San Antonio Spurs as the best defensive flow team. Although the Suns gave up more points than the Spurs, and slightly more than the Spurs in points per 100 possessions, they were about equal with them in assists given up adjusted for pace. This is so far as I know a fact not known by anyone, including the Suns, and it makes the trade of Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal look even more stupid than it already did, because the Suns were overestimating their defensive weakness when they made that trade.
The Boston Celtics, the Houston Rockets, and the Dallas Mavericks, in 3rd-5th, are also extremely good at disrupting the offense of their opponents. The Detroit Pistons are the 6th best defense in terms of flow.
The Pacers are 7th, the Lakers 8th, the Jazz 9th, and the Magic 10th.
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Here are the points allowed per 100 possessions (points allowed adjusted for pace). Notice how the Nuggets are a surprisingly high 10th.
One thing this shows you is that the Nuggets, led by Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin, have defenders who are very to extremely good at shutting down unassisted scores, but they lack players who know how to keep the passing game and outside shooting in check. Do I dare say this is another reason why J.R. Smith should have played more, since although he does get burned from time to time, at least he puts out a big effort to be as far from the hoop as necessary to disrupt the passing lanes and the perimeter shooting of the other team? Damn straight I dare to say it, and I just did say it.
DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY (2007-08)
Points Allowed per 100 Possessions
1 Boston Celtics 100.2
2 Houston Rockets 103.0
3 San Antonio Spurs 103.6
4 Detroit Pistons 104.2
5 Utah Jazz 105.9
6 Orlando Magic 107.0
7 Los Angeles Lakers 107.1
8 New Orleans Hornets 107.1
9 Dallas Mavericks 107.4
10 Denver Nuggets 107.5
11 Philadelphia 76ers 107.7
12 Cleveland Cavaliers 108.0
13 Chicago Bulls 108.6
14 Toronto Raptors 108.6
15 Indiana Pacers 109.0
16 Phoenix Suns 109.3
17 Portland Trail Blazers 109.9
18 Atlanta Hawks 110.4
19 Los Angeles Clippers 110.8
20 Golden State Warriors 111.0
21 New Jersey Nets 111.0
22 Washington Wizards 111.2
23 Charlotte Bobcats 111.3
24 Seattle SuperSonics 111.3
25 Miami Heat 111.6
26 Sacramento Kings 111.6
27 Minnesota Timberwolves 113.4
28 Memphis Grizzlies 113.7
29 New York Knicks 114.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks 114.4
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Now we can find out who really are the best defensive teams in the NBA. Once again, I combine the flow measure with the raw points measure by adding the ranks for each team.
REAL NBA TEAMS DEFENSE RANKING (2007-08)
Rank for Quality of Defensive Flow combined with Rank for Defensive Efficiency
1 Boston Celtics 4
2 San Antonio Spurs 5
3 Houston Rockets 6
4 Detroit Pistons 10
5 Utah Jazz 14
6 Dallas Mavericks 14
7 Los Angeles Lakers 15
8 Orlando Magic 16
9 Phoenix Suns 17
10 Indiana Pacers 22
11 Cleveland Cavaliers 23
12 Chicago Bulls 25
13 New Orleans Hornets 27
14 Portland Trail Blazers 31
15 Toronto Raptors 34
16 Golden State Warriors 36
17 New Jersey Nets 38
18 Charlotte Bobcats 38
19 Denver Nuggets 39
20 Philadelphia 76ers 39
21 Atlanta Hawks 40
22 Los Angeles Clippers 40
23 New York Knicks 42
24 Sacramento Kings 44
25 Miami Heat 48
26 Seattle SuperSonics 50
27 Washington Wizards 52
28 Minnesota Timberwolves 52
29 Memphis Grizzlies 52
30 Milwaukee Bucks 57
The Celtics, the Spurs, and the Rockets are just about tied as the best defensive teams in the NBA, with the Pistons not far behind in 4th. The Jazz, the Mavericks, the Lakers, Magic, and Suns are all excellent defensive teams, ranked close together from 5th through 9th. The Indiana Pacers (Coach Jim O'Brien) are the 10th best defensive team.
The Nuggets are tied with the 76'ers as only the 19th/20th best defensive team in the NBA, not even remotely good enough to contend in the playoffs. There are only 10 teams in the NBA with worse defenses than the Nuggets!
The bad news is that the Nuggets defensively made fewer improvements and were worse than most people thought this year. The good news is that they have interior defending pretty well down, and so they can concentrate all their efforts on outside defending, passing game disruption, and forcing turnovers. That is, that's what they will do if they are smart. But damn, the coaches are not known for being smart.
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Now how about net or combined quality of flow. This is quality of offensive flow minus quality of defensive flow for a team. Obviously, you need to combine offense and defense to find out how good a team is overall.
This will tell you how good a team is at passing and getting assists and at the same time how good it is at stopping the other teams from passing and getting assists, with everything adjusted for pace.
OFFENSIVE FLOW OR ASSISTS/POSSESSION MINUS DEFENSIVE FLOW OR OPPOSITION ASSISTS/POSSESSION
In hip hop terms, what are the NBA's best "flow teams"? (Who would have thought the best flow team is in Salt Lake City, Utah?!)
1 Utah 0.0764
2 Phoenix 0.0747
3 Boston 0.0402
4 Detroit 0.0371
5 San Antonio 0.0321
6 Houston 0.0280
7 Los Angeles 0.0266
8 Dallas 0.0236
9 Toronto 0.0214
10 New Jersey 0.0155
11 Indiana 0.0052
12 Portland 0.0023
13 Chicago 0.0022
14 New Orleans 0.0011
15 Atlanta -0.0033
16 Charlotte -0.0055
17 Orlando -0.0076
18 Denver -0.0102
19 Cleveland -0.0113
20 Golden State -0.0133
21 Miami -0.0135
22 Los Angeles Clippers -0.0143
23 Milwaukee -0.0200
24 Philadelphia -0.0313
25 New York -0.0321
26 Seattle -0.0326
27 Minnesota -0.0365
28 Sacramento -0.0407
29 Washington -0.0487
30 Memphis -0.0502
As you can check above, the Nuggets are 7th in offensive flow and 29th in defensive flow, so it is no surprise they end up about in the middle when both are combined. They end up a dismal 18th in flow achieved minus flow allowed.
The most important thing all of this says about the Nuggets is as follows. The Nuggets are never going to win a playoff series unless they can get a lot better at disrupting passing, disrupting assisting, and disrupting perimeter shooting of opponents, and unless they can force more turnovers. In order to have even a chance of doing this, they are going to have to slow their pace down.
I promised that I would eventually get to a never before published performance measure that DOES help predict the real contenders from the pretenders. This combination of offensive flow and defensive flow is as you can see a good predictor of who is going to go the farthest in the NBA playoffs. Assists are more important in the playoffs than in the regular season because defending is touger in the playoffs and you need more passing and assists to overcome that.
The final 4 NBA teams, the Celtics, the Pistons, the Lakers, and the Spurs, are all in the top 7 of this performance measure. The other three among the top 7 are the Jazz, the Suns, and the Rockets. The #1 Jazz are the NBA's best flow team so to speak, but they did not have enough actual scoring production to be able to defeat the Lakers. The acquisition of Kyle Korver was moving in the right direction, but it was not enough. And the #2 Suns were toppled by the Spurs largely because of the mistake they made in trading Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. As for the the 6th place Rockets, they were without Yao Ming and they were defeated by the 1st place Jazz in the quarters.
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Lastly, what if we combine everything above and see how the teams rank? We are combining:
1. Quality of offensive flow
2. Quality of defensive flow
3. Offensive Efficiency
4. Defensive Efficiency
Here we go:
1 Phoenix Suns 20
2 Boston Celtics 21
3 Los Angeles Lakers 22
4 Detroit Pistons 23
5 San Antonio Spurs 29
6 Utah Jazz 29
7 Dallas Mavericks 36
8 Houston Rockets 37
9 New Orleans Hornets 40
10 Orlando Magic 44
11 Toronto Raptors 45
12 Denver Nuggets 56
13 Portland Trail Blazers 57
14 Indiana Pacers 58
15 Golden State Warriors 60
16 Chicago Bulls 64
17 Atlanta Hawks 66
18 Cleveland Cavaliers 66
19 New Jersey Nets 67
20 Charlotte Bobcats 80
21 Philadelphia 76ers 81
22 Sacramento Kings 87
23 Los Angeles Clippers 88
24 Washington Wizards 89
25 Milwaukee Bucks 94
26 Miami Heat 94
27 New York Knicks 94
28 Memphis Grizzlies 102
29 Seattle SuperSonics 105
30 Minnesota Timberwolves 106
And there you have it. These 4 performance measures when combined together perfectly predicted who was going to be the final 4 teams in the NBA this year. For the record, the Jazz finished tied with the Spurs for the last slot.
Wait a minute you say, what about the Suns? The Suns forfeited their right to play the Lakers for the Western Conference crown when they traded Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. They had an inferiority complex regarding their defense, which as we have seen was not as bad as they were thinking it was before they made that trade. Once O'Neal was on the team, the Suns no longer were really in the top 4 of the NBA. The Spurs added insult to injury by using the hack-a-Shaq strategy against the Suns, which really and truly needs to be made illegal as soon as possible.
Notice that it turns out that Mark Cuban had a right to be upset with Avery Johnson, because the Mavericks should have done better in their Hornets series than they did.
As for the Nuggets, they are only the 12th best team in the NBA, way behind the top 11, and only a little ahead of the next three. As we have discovered, their biggest problem by far is not defense in general but is with certain kinds of defending. Namely, they are terrible at disrupting passing, preventing the assists that come from a good passing game, defending outside shooting, and defending the 3-point shot.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From May, 2008, Part 1
Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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MAY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
By the numbers, we can see how low the Denver franchise has sunk by trying to trade C Anthony as a result of their inability to stop worshipping Mr. Karl, and as a result of Mr. Karl's inability to stop worshipping Allen Iverson. I am one of Iverson's biggest backers, but no player should ever be worshipped. And obviously no coach should ever be worshipped by a front office / ownership.
Denver is disfunctional and hurting, so it would not be shocking if they make this trade. Here is a franchise that traded for Allen Iverson and then did absolutely nothing to prevent the same exact situation that existed in Philadelphia for years and years to continue on in a new city. That is beyond dumb. Them trading Melo would be at their level of dumbness so to speak, so it could in fact happen.
NEW JERSEY NETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
(Raw ESPN player ratings / minutes)
1 Vince Carter, NJ SG 0.923
2 Devin Harris, NJ PG 0.848
3 Richard Jefferson, NJ SF 0.823
4 Sean Williams, NJ C 0.726
5 Stromile Swift, NJ C 0.707
6 Josh Boone, NJ PF 0.704
7 Bostjan Nachbar, NJ SF 0.685
8 Marcus Williams, NJ PG 0.679
9 Nenad Krstic, NJ PF 0.644
10 DeSagana Diop, NJ C 0.564
11 Darrell Armstrong, NJ PG 0.518
12 Maurice Ager, NJ SG 0.500
13 Trenton Hassell, NJ SF 0.325
DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
(Raw ESPN player ratings / minutes)
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
2 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.978
3 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
4 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
5 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
6 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
7 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
8 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
9 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
10 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.636
11 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.607
12 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.587
13 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
14 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.495
Forumula for Real Player Rating:
Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made
Anyone want to rank the 13 Nets players in made them miss defending? Rank them according to how good they are in preventing shooters from scoring if you know how they rank. Then I could show Nets and Nuggets ARPR.
DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REAL PLAYER RATINGS ADJUSTED FOR DEFENDING
(raw espn rating +/- made them miss defending)/minutes
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.011
2 Marcus Camby, Den C 1.004
3 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.907
4 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.898
5 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.888
6 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.833
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.752
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.686
9 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.674
10 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.657
11 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.597
12 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.545
13 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.526
14 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.445
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Q: Why would Denver even consider as they threaten to bust up their team hogging two of the very best shooting guards in the League, Iverson and JR Smith, but then settle for Marcus Williams at PG?
A: Because they are dumb and they are not really serious about winning in the playoffs. Not being a 24-58 team anymore is enough to keep them happy. Maybe they're just a bunch of dumb mountain hicks who don't know that if you have a poor passing but good scoring team you need an outstanding PG to win playoff games.
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The other reason to take rumors of C Anthony being traded seriously is that he might finally have figured out how screwed up the Nuggets are and how it isn't going to change until there are changes in team management. But the Nuggets are too dumb or cowardly right now to make the needed changes. Remember that he called the Nuggets a quitting team during and after game 3 of the playoffs blowout by the Lakers.
So Anthony may have more or less demanded a trade, but decided to do it out of the public eye.
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Your Denver backcourt lineup is not going to happen anytime soon. AI will never be the designated PG in Denver while Karl is there worshipping him in his historical 2-guard role. And even if Karl were to be fired, which is just a pipe dream, the next coach might refuse to do it as well, regardless of how much that kills the playoff prospects of the team.
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Karl will never designate AI as his starting PG and he will never or at least almost never start JR at 2-guard.
The Nuggets are disfunctional and therefore unpredictable right now, so all true Nuggets fans are uptight right now about what might go down. Here is a small sample of some of the things Nuggets fans have to worry about right now:
1. The Nuggets trade C Anthony and don't get what Melo is worth in return.
2. The Nuggets despite trading C Anthony still end up with no proven, outstanding PG which they desperately need.
3. The Nuggets continue to waste JR Smith to a substantial degree, with Iverson as 2-guard starter and Smith's minutes limited due to that and due to Karl still disliking him very much.
4. In general, the Nuggets are going to return to being a door mat 24-58 type of team before Karl is finally retired or shown the door.
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JR wants to stay despite Karl treating him rough, but Anthony is his best friend on the team, and if Anthony goes, JR would most likely then want out. If Melo were traded to New Jersey, JR would want to go there too, especially since JR is from New Jersey and, so far as I know, all of his kin and most of his other friends are still there.
JR being very young has not gotten very upset about just being a 6th man, which I guess is to his credit, and I think he would probably put up with it for another season, but again, only if Melo stays.
As for me, the more I think about this, the more I like the idea of C Anthony playing for New Jersey and getting off of the Nuggets who have reached a dead end in the way they manage their team. The ultimate for me would be if Anthony and Smith came to New Jersey in the same trade, even if Smith was still only a backup (to VC). That would definitely spell the end of me being a Nuggets guy and the start of me being a Nets guy. I know a sinking ship when I see one, so I'd have to get on a life boat to escape the Nuggets at that point.
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Here is a summary of why C Anthony could be traded this off-season and probably will be traded either this off-season or in the 2009 off-season.
1. C Anthony may have finally figured out how screwed up the Nuggets are and how it isn't going to change until there are changes in team management. But the Nuggets are too dumb or cowardly right now to make the needed changes. Remember that he called the Nuggets a quitting team during and after game 3 of the playoffs blowout by the Lakers.
So Anthony may have more or less demanded a trade, but decided to do it out of the public eye.
2. The Nuggets were dumb enough to trade for Allen Iverson but not make any changes at all in his Philadelphia role, producing the same futile result. So they are dumb enough to make a dumb Anthony trade.
3. The Nuggets need salary relief.
4. The Nuggets need a scapegoat if they are too dumb and/or too cowardly to get rid of some coaches.
5. George Karl, who is not known for sticking with strategies, may have grown weary of his offensive strategy (if you can call it that.) He may have demanded that the Nuggets get better defenders on the team, so that he can rely less on his no structure, fast pace offense for easy wins against poor teams next year. Karl/The FO may be trying for the overly simplistic fix of getting better defenders in their quest to win playoff games. I'm not against better defenders but in and of itself it's not going to solve the Nuggets problems, especially if a dumb Melo trade is involved in bringing it about.
In other words, Karl and/or other team managers may have decided that the team needs to move heavily in the direction of more defending and less offense, which would make Melo expendable to some extent.
6. Any team dumb enough to even discuss a Melo trade that does not involve either of the two Nuggets 2-guards, both of whom are among the best 2-guards in the League, Iverson and Smith, in exchange for an outstanding point guard, is dumb enough to make a dumb Melo trade.
7. Karl has named AI as captain and Carmelo Anthony is not even co-captain. Also, Melo's game has been micromanaged by Karl/other coaches to some extent while Iverson has been given total free reign to play any way he wants. Both of these indicate that if the Nuggets make a major trade, it is more likely that Melo goes rather than AI.
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I am a fair weather and a foul weather sailor; if anything, I'm a better writer in foul weather. But I am not somebody who is going to be on a ship that is sinking and is going to end up at the bottom.
What has been most disappointing about C Anthony to me? The fact that he has done almost nothing to prevent the Nuggets from arriving at a dead end. He did adjust his game as requested, but he didn't realize that the forest is more important than the trees. But he's not the owner or the assistant general manager or even an assistant coach. Hell, he's not even considered a team captain anymore. For me, it would be sufficient if he has more or less demanded to be traded. I could then forgive him for not knowing how to lead his team away from the dead end, or off the island so to speak.
If that sounds kind of cheap, that's because it is kind of cheap. But he is not a college graduate for god's sake and how much can you learn in high school about managing a complex organization? I'm willing to let him off kind of cheap as long as he is finally taking some decisive action, even if it isn't the one Denver fans would want, because I think Melo drew the short straw so to speak as far as coaching and franchise management is concerned, and he deserves another fresh draw.
New Jersey took advantage of the Mavericks' desperation and got rid of the aging Kidd and that to me signals a team that is managed entirely in the real world instead of partly in a fantasy world the way the Nuggets are managed.
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They lied to the agent and the agent should know better. Any team would want to keep preliminary trade talks secret from the player's agent both because they are preliminary and unlikely to lead to a trade, and because if another team offers a good deal, they want to hold off the player and his agent from interfering for as long as possible in the process, because the team hopes that by the time the player and/or his agent gets involved, the trade has become almost a done deal.
If you were about to be fired, and you called the personnel department and asked about it, do you think you would get a straight answer? No sir.
There were and will continue to be trade feelers put out by the Nuggets. The Nuggets' front office staff have backed themselves into a corner because of their Karl addiction, whether it is voluntary or involuntary. And at this point how else are they supposed to spend their off-season time other than putting out trade feelers, including for Carmelo Anthony?
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That's not to say that the Nuggets should not have C. Anthony in the loop regarding free agent signings and trade talks not involving him. They should keep him in the loop, but they probably will not, because it seems to me that Mr. Karl realized that if he made Iverson the sole captain of the team (without informing the relatively politically gullible Melo about his demotion to ordinary player) and allowed Iverson to play any way he wanted, while hounding Anthony and tormenting JR Smith, that this would eliminate any chance Karl would be forced to resign or retire due to a lack of playoff wins. Because as a result of the total freedom and near worship granted to him by Karl, Iverson has naturally become Mr. Karl's number one backer. And when you as the Coach have Allen Iverson as your number one backer and Allen Iverson in turn has become, for better or worse, in use and in misuse, one of the cornerstones of the franchise, you have achieved total job security whether or not you can win playoff games and whether or not you know what you are doing.
Another way of looking at this is that Mr. Karl has taken as much advantage as possible of the relative gullability of both Anthony and Iverson. He seems to have known in advance that Iverson would respond with blind loyalty if he was left to do what he wants, and that Melo would be extremely slow to understand that his team captain days are over, and to understand that his Coach does not believe that he should be a team captain, nor that he is at Iverson's level, due to Iverson's much longer resume.
It was a shrewd calculation on Mr. Karl's part, who seems to know a lot more about micro politics than he does about micro basketball. We already knew that Karl fancies himself as kind of an expert about psychology in general and personalities in particular, so is it any surprise that he would know about micro or office politics? And what about the basic fact that Karl is one of the "super coaches" with a marathon head coaching resume? He had to know something about micro power politics to achieve that.
So if Melo is kept out of the loop, I for one know who to blame.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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MAY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
By the numbers, we can see how low the Denver franchise has sunk by trying to trade C Anthony as a result of their inability to stop worshipping Mr. Karl, and as a result of Mr. Karl's inability to stop worshipping Allen Iverson. I am one of Iverson's biggest backers, but no player should ever be worshipped. And obviously no coach should ever be worshipped by a front office / ownership.
Denver is disfunctional and hurting, so it would not be shocking if they make this trade. Here is a franchise that traded for Allen Iverson and then did absolutely nothing to prevent the same exact situation that existed in Philadelphia for years and years to continue on in a new city. That is beyond dumb. Them trading Melo would be at their level of dumbness so to speak, so it could in fact happen.
NEW JERSEY NETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
(Raw ESPN player ratings / minutes)
1 Vince Carter, NJ SG 0.923
2 Devin Harris, NJ PG 0.848
3 Richard Jefferson, NJ SF 0.823
4 Sean Williams, NJ C 0.726
5 Stromile Swift, NJ C 0.707
6 Josh Boone, NJ PF 0.704
7 Bostjan Nachbar, NJ SF 0.685
8 Marcus Williams, NJ PG 0.679
9 Nenad Krstic, NJ PF 0.644
10 DeSagana Diop, NJ C 0.564
11 Darrell Armstrong, NJ PG 0.518
12 Maurice Ager, NJ SG 0.500
13 Trenton Hassell, NJ SF 0.325
DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
(Raw ESPN player ratings / minutes)
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
2 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.978
3 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
4 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
5 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
6 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
7 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
8 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
9 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
10 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.636
11 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.607
12 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.587
13 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
14 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.495
Forumula for Real Player Rating:
Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made
Anyone want to rank the 13 Nets players in made them miss defending? Rank them according to how good they are in preventing shooters from scoring if you know how they rank. Then I could show Nets and Nuggets ARPR.
DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REAL PLAYER RATINGS ADJUSTED FOR DEFENDING
(raw espn rating +/- made them miss defending)/minutes
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.011
2 Marcus Camby, Den C 1.004
3 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.907
4 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.898
5 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.888
6 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.833
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.752
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.686
9 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.674
10 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.657
11 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.597
12 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.545
13 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.526
14 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.445
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Q: Why would Denver even consider as they threaten to bust up their team hogging two of the very best shooting guards in the League, Iverson and JR Smith, but then settle for Marcus Williams at PG?
A: Because they are dumb and they are not really serious about winning in the playoffs. Not being a 24-58 team anymore is enough to keep them happy. Maybe they're just a bunch of dumb mountain hicks who don't know that if you have a poor passing but good scoring team you need an outstanding PG to win playoff games.
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The other reason to take rumors of C Anthony being traded seriously is that he might finally have figured out how screwed up the Nuggets are and how it isn't going to change until there are changes in team management. But the Nuggets are too dumb or cowardly right now to make the needed changes. Remember that he called the Nuggets a quitting team during and after game 3 of the playoffs blowout by the Lakers.
So Anthony may have more or less demanded a trade, but decided to do it out of the public eye.
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Your Denver backcourt lineup is not going to happen anytime soon. AI will never be the designated PG in Denver while Karl is there worshipping him in his historical 2-guard role. And even if Karl were to be fired, which is just a pipe dream, the next coach might refuse to do it as well, regardless of how much that kills the playoff prospects of the team.
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Karl will never designate AI as his starting PG and he will never or at least almost never start JR at 2-guard.
The Nuggets are disfunctional and therefore unpredictable right now, so all true Nuggets fans are uptight right now about what might go down. Here is a small sample of some of the things Nuggets fans have to worry about right now:
1. The Nuggets trade C Anthony and don't get what Melo is worth in return.
2. The Nuggets despite trading C Anthony still end up with no proven, outstanding PG which they desperately need.
3. The Nuggets continue to waste JR Smith to a substantial degree, with Iverson as 2-guard starter and Smith's minutes limited due to that and due to Karl still disliking him very much.
4. In general, the Nuggets are going to return to being a door mat 24-58 type of team before Karl is finally retired or shown the door.
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JR wants to stay despite Karl treating him rough, but Anthony is his best friend on the team, and if Anthony goes, JR would most likely then want out. If Melo were traded to New Jersey, JR would want to go there too, especially since JR is from New Jersey and, so far as I know, all of his kin and most of his other friends are still there.
JR being very young has not gotten very upset about just being a 6th man, which I guess is to his credit, and I think he would probably put up with it for another season, but again, only if Melo stays.
As for me, the more I think about this, the more I like the idea of C Anthony playing for New Jersey and getting off of the Nuggets who have reached a dead end in the way they manage their team. The ultimate for me would be if Anthony and Smith came to New Jersey in the same trade, even if Smith was still only a backup (to VC). That would definitely spell the end of me being a Nuggets guy and the start of me being a Nets guy. I know a sinking ship when I see one, so I'd have to get on a life boat to escape the Nuggets at that point.
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Here is a summary of why C Anthony could be traded this off-season and probably will be traded either this off-season or in the 2009 off-season.
1. C Anthony may have finally figured out how screwed up the Nuggets are and how it isn't going to change until there are changes in team management. But the Nuggets are too dumb or cowardly right now to make the needed changes. Remember that he called the Nuggets a quitting team during and after game 3 of the playoffs blowout by the Lakers.
So Anthony may have more or less demanded a trade, but decided to do it out of the public eye.
2. The Nuggets were dumb enough to trade for Allen Iverson but not make any changes at all in his Philadelphia role, producing the same futile result. So they are dumb enough to make a dumb Anthony trade.
3. The Nuggets need salary relief.
4. The Nuggets need a scapegoat if they are too dumb and/or too cowardly to get rid of some coaches.
5. George Karl, who is not known for sticking with strategies, may have grown weary of his offensive strategy (if you can call it that.) He may have demanded that the Nuggets get better defenders on the team, so that he can rely less on his no structure, fast pace offense for easy wins against poor teams next year. Karl/The FO may be trying for the overly simplistic fix of getting better defenders in their quest to win playoff games. I'm not against better defenders but in and of itself it's not going to solve the Nuggets problems, especially if a dumb Melo trade is involved in bringing it about.
In other words, Karl and/or other team managers may have decided that the team needs to move heavily in the direction of more defending and less offense, which would make Melo expendable to some extent.
6. Any team dumb enough to even discuss a Melo trade that does not involve either of the two Nuggets 2-guards, both of whom are among the best 2-guards in the League, Iverson and Smith, in exchange for an outstanding point guard, is dumb enough to make a dumb Melo trade.
7. Karl has named AI as captain and Carmelo Anthony is not even co-captain. Also, Melo's game has been micromanaged by Karl/other coaches to some extent while Iverson has been given total free reign to play any way he wants. Both of these indicate that if the Nuggets make a major trade, it is more likely that Melo goes rather than AI.
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I am a fair weather and a foul weather sailor; if anything, I'm a better writer in foul weather. But I am not somebody who is going to be on a ship that is sinking and is going to end up at the bottom.
What has been most disappointing about C Anthony to me? The fact that he has done almost nothing to prevent the Nuggets from arriving at a dead end. He did adjust his game as requested, but he didn't realize that the forest is more important than the trees. But he's not the owner or the assistant general manager or even an assistant coach. Hell, he's not even considered a team captain anymore. For me, it would be sufficient if he has more or less demanded to be traded. I could then forgive him for not knowing how to lead his team away from the dead end, or off the island so to speak.
If that sounds kind of cheap, that's because it is kind of cheap. But he is not a college graduate for god's sake and how much can you learn in high school about managing a complex organization? I'm willing to let him off kind of cheap as long as he is finally taking some decisive action, even if it isn't the one Denver fans would want, because I think Melo drew the short straw so to speak as far as coaching and franchise management is concerned, and he deserves another fresh draw.
New Jersey took advantage of the Mavericks' desperation and got rid of the aging Kidd and that to me signals a team that is managed entirely in the real world instead of partly in a fantasy world the way the Nuggets are managed.
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They lied to the agent and the agent should know better. Any team would want to keep preliminary trade talks secret from the player's agent both because they are preliminary and unlikely to lead to a trade, and because if another team offers a good deal, they want to hold off the player and his agent from interfering for as long as possible in the process, because the team hopes that by the time the player and/or his agent gets involved, the trade has become almost a done deal.
If you were about to be fired, and you called the personnel department and asked about it, do you think you would get a straight answer? No sir.
There were and will continue to be trade feelers put out by the Nuggets. The Nuggets' front office staff have backed themselves into a corner because of their Karl addiction, whether it is voluntary or involuntary. And at this point how else are they supposed to spend their off-season time other than putting out trade feelers, including for Carmelo Anthony?
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That's not to say that the Nuggets should not have C. Anthony in the loop regarding free agent signings and trade talks not involving him. They should keep him in the loop, but they probably will not, because it seems to me that Mr. Karl realized that if he made Iverson the sole captain of the team (without informing the relatively politically gullible Melo about his demotion to ordinary player) and allowed Iverson to play any way he wanted, while hounding Anthony and tormenting JR Smith, that this would eliminate any chance Karl would be forced to resign or retire due to a lack of playoff wins. Because as a result of the total freedom and near worship granted to him by Karl, Iverson has naturally become Mr. Karl's number one backer. And when you as the Coach have Allen Iverson as your number one backer and Allen Iverson in turn has become, for better or worse, in use and in misuse, one of the cornerstones of the franchise, you have achieved total job security whether or not you can win playoff games and whether or not you know what you are doing.
Another way of looking at this is that Mr. Karl has taken as much advantage as possible of the relative gullability of both Anthony and Iverson. He seems to have known in advance that Iverson would respond with blind loyalty if he was left to do what he wants, and that Melo would be extremely slow to understand that his team captain days are over, and to understand that his Coach does not believe that he should be a team captain, nor that he is at Iverson's level, due to Iverson's much longer resume.
It was a shrewd calculation on Mr. Karl's part, who seems to know a lot more about micro politics than he does about micro basketball. We already knew that Karl fancies himself as kind of an expert about psychology in general and personalities in particular, so is it any surprise that he would know about micro or office politics? And what about the basic fact that Karl is one of the "super coaches" with a marathon head coaching resume? He had to know something about micro power politics to achieve that.
So if Melo is kept out of the loop, I for one know who to blame.
Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From Late April and Early May, 2008,
Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
The following comments were being made while the Nuggets were being blown out by the Lakers 4 games to zero in the 2008 playoffs.
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Lakers 14 Nuggets 5 in first 4 1/2 minutes of the third. Lakers are overloading the interior and shutting down the Nuggets because the Nuggets are hardly trying to do anything from outside.
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A frustrated Kenyon Martin, who lost the ball to Derek Fisher in the paint, gets his 4th foul half way through the third when he elbows Fisher to the floor. He was lucky not to get a flagrant.
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8-0 run for the Nuggets as they go to the zone and the Lakers are not able to immediately adjust. Jackson lumbers off his perch and calls the t/o. 69-59 Lakers 4:39 left in the 3rd.
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End of the 3rd: Lakers 83 Nuggets 64 = ROUT
The Nuggets offense is too flimsy to be able to overcome the Lakers defense.
Which team blundered there way out of contention worse: the Suns or the Nuggets? If the Suns and Nuggets had maximized instead of minimizing their chances, they could have met in the Western Conference Final this year.
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Announcers are claiming the Nuggets did not have enough intensity. How intense can you be if you suspect you have not been given the correct instructions on how to beat the Lakers? The Nuggets look like a bunch of frightened animals out there in all honesty. To say they are lacking in confidence and real belief that they could beat the Lakers would be an understatement.
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The Lakers were only the 7th best defense this year adjusted for pace and the complete collapse of the Nuggets offense in this game was not due entirely or even mostly to the Lakers defense. The Nuggets have enough weapons to do well against the 7th best defense, but to say they didn't use their weapons well would be an understatement.
The depths to which Carmelo Anthony has sunk in this game are truly amazing and disturbing to say the least. Anthony has clearly been negatively affected by the sum total of the management of the Nuggets this year. He followed instructions, and ended up with nothing to show for it.
AI gets benched, but was he benched mostly for not distributing the ball properly? Most likely not, because most likely he was not directed to get a minimum number of assists despite getting the start at PG.
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In a little glimpse of what could have made for a different series, Nene was 2/2 and played well defensively in 11 1/2 minutes.
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There have been three routs/near routs so far. If there is a fourth, then I believe I am correct in claiming that the average NBA owner/front office combination would relieve GK of his duties, allowing him to coach another team next year based on his marathon resume, or get him to retire, whichever he prefers.
If the Nuggets lose big again in game 4, and GK comes back for yet another year of miseries, it would prove that the Nuggets are not yet a full scale, totally serious NBA franchise.
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This is the ultimate take down of George Karl. You simply must check it out:
Ultimate Take Down of George Karl Part 1
Ultimate Take Down of George Karl Part 2
Ultimate Take Down of George Karl Part 3
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If anyone can, please explain why Karl should not be fired for even just the following single reason. In the regular season, he swore by Anthony Carter at point guard and refused to consider anyone else at the position. Then in the playoffs, all of a sudden Carter wasn't good enough, and in came Allen Iverson.
Since Karl apparently strenuously disagrees with the importance that most other coaches place in the role of the point guard, and since he never instructed Iverson to pass more and shoot less even after he was designated as PG for the playoffs, Iverson did not shoot less and pass more after being so designated. All Karl did was ask for ALL Nuggets to shoot less and pass more, which seems more and more asinine the more you think of it. In effect, Karl was asking for the rest of the team to make up for the fact that he does not believe in the importance of the PG role, and/or to make up for his inability to select the right player for the position.
In fact, adding injury to insult, but in an appropriate knock to the face of Karl, Iverson actually made substantially fewer assists per playoff game while designated the PG, 4.5, than he made per regular season game, 7.1, while supposedly playing shooting guard! That is beyond screwed up my friends.
Now if a pro football coach deserted his regular season quarterback and put in a new quarterback for the playoffs, and the playoff quarterback was a miserable failure in that role, and his team was routed 45-6, which is the equivalent of what happened to the Nuggets, would that coach not be fired immediately? Of course, he would be fired so quickly he wouldn't know what hit him.
The way the Nuggets offense was managed this season was nothing short of madness. It was worse than last year, and it made a mockery of the concept of the role of the point guard. If Karl doesn't think that positions in general and the point guard position in particular have significance, than why doesn't he lobby for the elimination of positions in official basketball records and statistics?
So all you closet Karl defenders, explain why he should not be fired for gross negligence.
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You have to learn to walk before you can run and the Nuggets didn't even know how to walk this year. In other words, you can't have an offense where numerous players are good at finding the open man when you haven't even established one PG who is reliably good at it. Karl had no "scheme" at all that made any sense, he failed to understand the importance of the PG position for a team that obviously does not have the passing skills of the Spurs, he failed to choose the best man to play the point in the regular season, and then he finally chose the best man available to run the point in the playoffs when it was way too late.
Karl made a mockery of the concept of offense management. Moreover, he is at this point mocking the Nuggets franchise and the city of Denver by avoiding being forced to retire despite these and many, many other errors and shortcomings.
Every year the Nuggets have one or more players who should be ready to play in the playoffs but are not. Last year it was Smith and Kleiza. This year it was Atkins and Nene. There was time for at least one of those two to be reworked into the rotation, but Karl kept swearing that Carter was good enough at PG and he kept overplaying Camby/Martin instead of bringing in Nene. At least partly and most likely largely as a result, the Nuggets were destroyed on both offense and defense in the series.
We now know that Karl can not possibly get himself fired, because if all he did and didn't do this year is not enough, nothing will ever be enough to get him retired or fired.
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You need A point guard on a team like the Nuggets. The Nuggets are loaded up with players who like to score in isolation. They don't have hardly any players who like to help teammates score more than they like to score themselves. It doesn't have to be a pure point guard. It doesn't have to be a point guard that everyone agrees has a good style. It doesn't have to be a high scoring point guard. It doesn't have to be a low scoring point guard. It doesn't have to be any point guard in particular except that it has to be someone who is responsible for keeping the passing game alive and someone who is responsible for preventing what the Nuggets became, which is a very easy to defend team of players who are usually in shoot first, shoot second and shoot third desperation mode.
Karl swore by Carter and then deserted him for the playoffs and in effect was left with no point guard. The Lakers made him pay through the teeth for that:
PLAYOFF SERIES ASSISTS
Game 1 Lakers 33 Nuggets 20
Game 2 Lakers 33 Nuggets 12
Game 3 Lakers 26 Nuggets 22
Game 4 Lakers 20 Nuggets 20
The Nuggets are supposed to average about 25 assists a game at their pace, or 100 assists in 4 games. They made 74 assists instead of 100 or 110 or 120. What would you expect when it ended up that no one had primary responsibility to keep the passing game going?
Is it too much to ask of Mr. Karl to provide a qualified point guard for his team? He could have had Atkins ready. He could have stuck with Carter. He could have designated AI on or before March 1. For god's sake, he could have put in Taurean Green. The point is, he didn't do a damn thing about the need for at least one player to be responsible for keeping the passing game going.
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As for the Lakers, if they lose a playoff series, it will probably be because Derek Fisher is not a championship team caliber PG, whereas Chris Paul, Tony Parker, and possibly Rajon Rondo are.
For that matter, the Jazz PG Williams is championship caliber, so the Lakers could possibly be upset by them.
On the surface, it might seem that the Lakers are trying to do what the Nuggets did in the regular season, which is rely on the 2-guard to get a lot of assists and keep the passing game going. But the first thing and the most obnoxious thing to realize is that the Nuggets abandoned their own strategy and substituted almost nothing for it. They took out Carter and put in a near 0-assist swingman at the 2-guard, Linas Kleiza. Now Iverson was the only guard who could be relied on to make plays in the game, but he still had no direct responsibility for it.
Aside from this fiasco, even before the Nuggets self-destructed their lineup, Derek Fisher was somewhat more reliable than Anthony Carter as the designated but partial PG. Second, Kobe Bryant makes for at least a slightly more effective playmaking 2-guard than does Iverson, due to years of Iverson having almost no responsibility at all for passing. Finally, the Lakers have very few near 0-assists a game forwards and centers, with Turiaf and Bynum pretty much it, and Bynum was out of the picture. But the Nuggets had 4 active forwards and centers in the series who are poor at playmaking: Kleiza, Martin, Najera, and Nene (if he ever plays).
Under Karl's scheme and directions, the Nuggets had very little playmaking capability on the court at all. It is a tribute to the Nuggets who played that they made 74 assists in 4 games, because it could have been much worse; it could easily have been 60 assists or even fewer.
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At least one Denver newspaper sportswriter got it right:
I added this:
Wow, finally, 2 weeks after the Nuggets are exposed as an overrated, disfunctional winning is just a fantasy type of team, one lonely, solitary Denver sportswriter recommends this. I guess it's better than never, but not by a whole lot, really.
The 50 game win regular season was very deceptive because the Nuggets were at least +3 games in lucky wins over unclucky losses, meaining their true regular season after that adjustment was 47-35. Furthermore, they had a net of about +6 games where the opponent was back to back on the road in Denver over games where the Nuggets were back to back on the road. Those games are extremely difficult for the road team to win. Only roughly 1 in 8 of those games are won by the road team. If you take away, say, 3 of those, the Nuggets were actually 44-38 this season. Let's face it, that's what the average NBA fan really thinks that the Nuggets were this year, a 44-38 team. Denver fans and sportswriters are largely living in a dream world if they think that the Nuggets had a truly great regular season.
Denver needs real basketball fans who are not satisfied with mediocrity or failure dressed up as moderate success. If they ever got enough of them, then I assume some real basketball writers would eventually follow. Most importantly, sooner or later a real coaching staff would arrive as well.
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Regarding the Nuggets post playoff blowout exploration of the possibility of trading Carmelo Anthony:
Well they won't snap out of it unless they stop worshiping George Karl or unless C. Anthony says something, anything in public regarding changing the management of the Nuggets, even if it's not to the extent of demanding new coaches. Melo is too mellow about the situation, and, even worse, it appears that he doesn't understand that Karl heavily favors AI over himself, meaning that he is NOT officially even the co-captain of the Nuggets, let alone the captain.
When Anthony is silent, it creates the impression that he doesn't think anything is wrong with the management of the team or with Iverson being the sole captain. Then that raises a conspiracy theory that Anthony has asked to be traded or at least is secretly hoping to be traded, which in turn would explain his relatively poor Lakers playoff series.
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DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
(Raw ESPN player ratings / minutes)
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
2 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.978
3 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
4 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
5 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
6 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
7 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
8 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
9 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
10 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.636
11 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.607
12 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.587
13 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
14 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.495
ADJUSTMENT FOR DEFENDING
Made them miss defending is specifically how many shots would have gone in the basket that do not go in due to a player's defending of shooters. While steals and blocks are included in the real player rating, made them miss man to man defending is not. So players who can read offensive attacks, anticipate, rotate, hustle, and get in the face of shooters to prevent scores are disadvantaged slightly in the regular real player rating performance measure. There is no precise measurement system for made them miss defending in existence, because it is impossible to know exactly how many shots a player such as Kenyon Martin stops from going in the basket. So I decided to create an overall scale whose range is my best estimate of how important the made them miss factor is, and then rate all the players in equal increments along that scale. If one or more players are considered about equal in made them miss defending, then their adjustment factor is the average of the sum of the adjustment factors assigned to their ranks. These are the adjustments I think are the most accurate:
RNK PLAYER, TEAM POS ADJUSTMENT
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF -0.08
2 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.09
3 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.13
4 Allen Iverson, Den SG -0.08
5 J.R. Smith, Den SG -0.05
6 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.11
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF -0.01
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.05
9 Anthony Carter, Den PG -0.03
10 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.05
11 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.01
12 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.05
13 Taurean Green, Den PG -0.11
14 Chucky Atkins, Den PG -0.13
Now for the 2007-08 Real Player Ratings adjusted for made them miss defending:
DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REAL PLAYER RATINGS ADJUSTED FOR MADE THEM MISS DEFENDING
(Raw ESPN player ratings plus or minus made them miss defending adjustment / minutes)
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.011
2 Marcus Camby, Den C 1.004
3 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.907
4 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.898
5 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.888
6 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.833
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.752
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.686
9 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.674
10 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.657
11 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.597
12 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.545
13 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.526
14 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.445
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NUGGETS RANKED BY HOW MUCH THEY GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN 2007-08 (extracted from the above)
1 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.147
2 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.118
3 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.115
4 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.074
5 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.049
6 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.007
7 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.006
8 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 0.005
9 Marcus Camby, Den C -0.045
10 Nene Hilario, Den PF -0.146
11 Chucky Atkins, Den PG -0.218
12 Kenyon Martin, Den PF N/A
13 Anthony Carter, Den PG N/A
14 Taurean Green, Den PG N/A
Most improved Nugget: J.R. Smith
Other big improvements: Linas Kleiza and Yakhouba Diawara
Honorable mention: Bobby Jones
Substantially Better Despite High Base: Allen Iverson
Treaded Water: No Better, But No Worse Either: Carmelo Anthony, Eduardo Najera, Steven Hunter
Slightly Worse From a High Base: Marcus Camby
Biggest disappointment: Chucky Atkins
Other big disappointment: Nene
For reference, a reminder of the actual 2007-08 real player ratings of these players:
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
2 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.978
3 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
4 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
5 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
6 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
7 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
8 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
9 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
10 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.636
11 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.607
12 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.587
13 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
14 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.495
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The Coach's Demand for a Player (CDP) is minutes per game divided by real player rating. What follows is technically ACDP (Adjusted Coach's Demand for Players) because I am using the real player ratings adjusted for made them miss defending.
ACDP is a measure of how much a coach plays a player relative to that player's real performance. In theory, on a perfectly coached team, the best 9 or even the best 10 players on a team should have approximately the same ACDP, at least within about 10% of each other anyway. Actual statistics suggest the following evaluation scale for this:
SCALE FOR THE 10 PLAYERS WITH THE MOST PLAYING TIME
51 > Player has been insanely overplayed
45-51 Player has been very or extremely overplayed
40-45 Player has been overplayed
36-40 Player has been slightly overplayed
30-36 Midrange--Theoretically Optimal
26-30 Player has been slightly underplayed
22-26 Player has been underplayed
18-22 Player has been very or extremely underplayed
< 18 Player has been insanely underplayed
NUGGETS 2007-08 COACH'S DEMAND FOR PLAYERS
PRIMARY PLAYERS USUALLY PART OF NORMAL ROTATION
1 Allen Iverson, Den SG 46.52 Very Overplayed
2 Anthony Carter, Den PG 41.57 Overplayed
3 Marcus Camby, Den C 34.76 Optimal
4 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 33.63 Optimal
5 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 33.37 Optimal
6 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 32.78 Optimal
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 31.80 Optimal
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 31.22 Optimal
9 J.R. Smith, Den SG 21.63 Very underplayed
10 Nene Hilario, Den PF 19.93 Extremely underplayed
Ratio between #1 Iverson and #9 Smith: 2.15
SECONDARY PLAYERS NOT USUALLY PART OF NORMAL ROTATION
11 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 18.53
12 Bobby Jones, Den SG 13.55
13 Steven Hunter, Den C 10.55
14 Taurean Green, Den PG 6.27
The much lower numbers among the secondary players are normal and inevitable, because even coaches who make excellent use of their bench such as Greg Popovich and Phil Jackson do not try to put more than 10 or at the very most 11 players into the usual rotation.
George Karl and company had 6 players exactly correct in terms of playing time, but they badly missed the mark on the 4 others among the 10 Nuggets who were usually in the regular rotation. The only very overplayed Nugget was Allen Iverson, who was designated as team captain by Karl and was given free reign to divide his efforts between the two guard positions as he wished. PG Anthony Carter was overplayed, but it was not anywhere near as ridiculous as Karl's overplaying of PG Steve Blake in 2006-07, mostly because Carter was much better than expected and was actually better than Blake if the truth were told.
Two Nuggets in the primary rotation were heavily underplayed, or cheated of playing time if you prefer: J.R. Smith and Nene. Since Nene's season was filled with a major cancer scare and other injuries, I guess Mr. Karl and company get a pass on his seriously deficient minutes. But the Denver coaches do not get a waiver on their serious underplaying of J.R. Smith, a substantial chunk of whose minutes were taken by the less productive Anthony Carter and by the overworked Allen Iverson. Compared with Smith, Carter was given almost twice as much playing time per performance rating and Iverson was given more than twice as much.
As time permits, I will be doing these reviews for the teams who clearly have better coaches than the Nuggets and the results to prove it, such as the Lakers and the Pistons. We'll see whether coaches such as Popovich, Saunders, and Jackson have ratios between their most favored and their least favored players anywhere near as much as the more than 2.0 ratio put out by Karl.
I must say though, regardless of how Karl will compare to other coaches on this, he ended up doing somewhat better this year than last year on playing times, when he was even more wildly off the mark.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
The following comments were being made while the Nuggets were being blown out by the Lakers 4 games to zero in the 2008 playoffs.
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Lakers 14 Nuggets 5 in first 4 1/2 minutes of the third. Lakers are overloading the interior and shutting down the Nuggets because the Nuggets are hardly trying to do anything from outside.
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A frustrated Kenyon Martin, who lost the ball to Derek Fisher in the paint, gets his 4th foul half way through the third when he elbows Fisher to the floor. He was lucky not to get a flagrant.
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8-0 run for the Nuggets as they go to the zone and the Lakers are not able to immediately adjust. Jackson lumbers off his perch and calls the t/o. 69-59 Lakers 4:39 left in the 3rd.
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End of the 3rd: Lakers 83 Nuggets 64 = ROUT
The Nuggets offense is too flimsy to be able to overcome the Lakers defense.
Which team blundered there way out of contention worse: the Suns or the Nuggets? If the Suns and Nuggets had maximized instead of minimizing their chances, they could have met in the Western Conference Final this year.
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Announcers are claiming the Nuggets did not have enough intensity. How intense can you be if you suspect you have not been given the correct instructions on how to beat the Lakers? The Nuggets look like a bunch of frightened animals out there in all honesty. To say they are lacking in confidence and real belief that they could beat the Lakers would be an understatement.
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The Lakers were only the 7th best defense this year adjusted for pace and the complete collapse of the Nuggets offense in this game was not due entirely or even mostly to the Lakers defense. The Nuggets have enough weapons to do well against the 7th best defense, but to say they didn't use their weapons well would be an understatement.
The depths to which Carmelo Anthony has sunk in this game are truly amazing and disturbing to say the least. Anthony has clearly been negatively affected by the sum total of the management of the Nuggets this year. He followed instructions, and ended up with nothing to show for it.
AI gets benched, but was he benched mostly for not distributing the ball properly? Most likely not, because most likely he was not directed to get a minimum number of assists despite getting the start at PG.
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In a little glimpse of what could have made for a different series, Nene was 2/2 and played well defensively in 11 1/2 minutes.
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There have been three routs/near routs so far. If there is a fourth, then I believe I am correct in claiming that the average NBA owner/front office combination would relieve GK of his duties, allowing him to coach another team next year based on his marathon resume, or get him to retire, whichever he prefers.
If the Nuggets lose big again in game 4, and GK comes back for yet another year of miseries, it would prove that the Nuggets are not yet a full scale, totally serious NBA franchise.
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This is the ultimate take down of George Karl. You simply must check it out:
Ultimate Take Down of George Karl Part 1
Ultimate Take Down of George Karl Part 2
Ultimate Take Down of George Karl Part 3
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If anyone can, please explain why Karl should not be fired for even just the following single reason. In the regular season, he swore by Anthony Carter at point guard and refused to consider anyone else at the position. Then in the playoffs, all of a sudden Carter wasn't good enough, and in came Allen Iverson.
Since Karl apparently strenuously disagrees with the importance that most other coaches place in the role of the point guard, and since he never instructed Iverson to pass more and shoot less even after he was designated as PG for the playoffs, Iverson did not shoot less and pass more after being so designated. All Karl did was ask for ALL Nuggets to shoot less and pass more, which seems more and more asinine the more you think of it. In effect, Karl was asking for the rest of the team to make up for the fact that he does not believe in the importance of the PG role, and/or to make up for his inability to select the right player for the position.
In fact, adding injury to insult, but in an appropriate knock to the face of Karl, Iverson actually made substantially fewer assists per playoff game while designated the PG, 4.5, than he made per regular season game, 7.1, while supposedly playing shooting guard! That is beyond screwed up my friends.
Now if a pro football coach deserted his regular season quarterback and put in a new quarterback for the playoffs, and the playoff quarterback was a miserable failure in that role, and his team was routed 45-6, which is the equivalent of what happened to the Nuggets, would that coach not be fired immediately? Of course, he would be fired so quickly he wouldn't know what hit him.
The way the Nuggets offense was managed this season was nothing short of madness. It was worse than last year, and it made a mockery of the concept of the role of the point guard. If Karl doesn't think that positions in general and the point guard position in particular have significance, than why doesn't he lobby for the elimination of positions in official basketball records and statistics?
So all you closet Karl defenders, explain why he should not be fired for gross negligence.
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You have to learn to walk before you can run and the Nuggets didn't even know how to walk this year. In other words, you can't have an offense where numerous players are good at finding the open man when you haven't even established one PG who is reliably good at it. Karl had no "scheme" at all that made any sense, he failed to understand the importance of the PG position for a team that obviously does not have the passing skills of the Spurs, he failed to choose the best man to play the point in the regular season, and then he finally chose the best man available to run the point in the playoffs when it was way too late.
Karl made a mockery of the concept of offense management. Moreover, he is at this point mocking the Nuggets franchise and the city of Denver by avoiding being forced to retire despite these and many, many other errors and shortcomings.
Every year the Nuggets have one or more players who should be ready to play in the playoffs but are not. Last year it was Smith and Kleiza. This year it was Atkins and Nene. There was time for at least one of those two to be reworked into the rotation, but Karl kept swearing that Carter was good enough at PG and he kept overplaying Camby/Martin instead of bringing in Nene. At least partly and most likely largely as a result, the Nuggets were destroyed on both offense and defense in the series.
We now know that Karl can not possibly get himself fired, because if all he did and didn't do this year is not enough, nothing will ever be enough to get him retired or fired.
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You need A point guard on a team like the Nuggets. The Nuggets are loaded up with players who like to score in isolation. They don't have hardly any players who like to help teammates score more than they like to score themselves. It doesn't have to be a pure point guard. It doesn't have to be a point guard that everyone agrees has a good style. It doesn't have to be a high scoring point guard. It doesn't have to be a low scoring point guard. It doesn't have to be any point guard in particular except that it has to be someone who is responsible for keeping the passing game alive and someone who is responsible for preventing what the Nuggets became, which is a very easy to defend team of players who are usually in shoot first, shoot second and shoot third desperation mode.
Karl swore by Carter and then deserted him for the playoffs and in effect was left with no point guard. The Lakers made him pay through the teeth for that:
PLAYOFF SERIES ASSISTS
Game 1 Lakers 33 Nuggets 20
Game 2 Lakers 33 Nuggets 12
Game 3 Lakers 26 Nuggets 22
Game 4 Lakers 20 Nuggets 20
The Nuggets are supposed to average about 25 assists a game at their pace, or 100 assists in 4 games. They made 74 assists instead of 100 or 110 or 120. What would you expect when it ended up that no one had primary responsibility to keep the passing game going?
Is it too much to ask of Mr. Karl to provide a qualified point guard for his team? He could have had Atkins ready. He could have stuck with Carter. He could have designated AI on or before March 1. For god's sake, he could have put in Taurean Green. The point is, he didn't do a damn thing about the need for at least one player to be responsible for keeping the passing game going.
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As for the Lakers, if they lose a playoff series, it will probably be because Derek Fisher is not a championship team caliber PG, whereas Chris Paul, Tony Parker, and possibly Rajon Rondo are.
For that matter, the Jazz PG Williams is championship caliber, so the Lakers could possibly be upset by them.
On the surface, it might seem that the Lakers are trying to do what the Nuggets did in the regular season, which is rely on the 2-guard to get a lot of assists and keep the passing game going. But the first thing and the most obnoxious thing to realize is that the Nuggets abandoned their own strategy and substituted almost nothing for it. They took out Carter and put in a near 0-assist swingman at the 2-guard, Linas Kleiza. Now Iverson was the only guard who could be relied on to make plays in the game, but he still had no direct responsibility for it.
Aside from this fiasco, even before the Nuggets self-destructed their lineup, Derek Fisher was somewhat more reliable than Anthony Carter as the designated but partial PG. Second, Kobe Bryant makes for at least a slightly more effective playmaking 2-guard than does Iverson, due to years of Iverson having almost no responsibility at all for passing. Finally, the Lakers have very few near 0-assists a game forwards and centers, with Turiaf and Bynum pretty much it, and Bynum was out of the picture. But the Nuggets had 4 active forwards and centers in the series who are poor at playmaking: Kleiza, Martin, Najera, and Nene (if he ever plays).
Under Karl's scheme and directions, the Nuggets had very little playmaking capability on the court at all. It is a tribute to the Nuggets who played that they made 74 assists in 4 games, because it could have been much worse; it could easily have been 60 assists or even fewer.
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At least one Denver newspaper sportswriter got it right:
Tell Iverson he is the Nuggets' full-time point guard, expected to average a dozen assists a game and a dozen fewer shots a game, and elevate J.R. Smith to starting shooting guard. Smith was the leading scorer in the last game. Camby, who will be 35 next season and is beginning to decline, will have to be jettisoned, and with the loss of free agent Najera, the Nuggets could add a big body.
I added this:
Wow, finally, 2 weeks after the Nuggets are exposed as an overrated, disfunctional winning is just a fantasy type of team, one lonely, solitary Denver sportswriter recommends this. I guess it's better than never, but not by a whole lot, really.
The 50 game win regular season was very deceptive because the Nuggets were at least +3 games in lucky wins over unclucky losses, meaining their true regular season after that adjustment was 47-35. Furthermore, they had a net of about +6 games where the opponent was back to back on the road in Denver over games where the Nuggets were back to back on the road. Those games are extremely difficult for the road team to win. Only roughly 1 in 8 of those games are won by the road team. If you take away, say, 3 of those, the Nuggets were actually 44-38 this season. Let's face it, that's what the average NBA fan really thinks that the Nuggets were this year, a 44-38 team. Denver fans and sportswriters are largely living in a dream world if they think that the Nuggets had a truly great regular season.
Denver needs real basketball fans who are not satisfied with mediocrity or failure dressed up as moderate success. If they ever got enough of them, then I assume some real basketball writers would eventually follow. Most importantly, sooner or later a real coaching staff would arrive as well.
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Regarding the Nuggets post playoff blowout exploration of the possibility of trading Carmelo Anthony:
Well they won't snap out of it unless they stop worshiping George Karl or unless C. Anthony says something, anything in public regarding changing the management of the Nuggets, even if it's not to the extent of demanding new coaches. Melo is too mellow about the situation, and, even worse, it appears that he doesn't understand that Karl heavily favors AI over himself, meaning that he is NOT officially even the co-captain of the Nuggets, let alone the captain.
When Anthony is silent, it creates the impression that he doesn't think anything is wrong with the management of the team or with Iverson being the sole captain. Then that raises a conspiracy theory that Anthony has asked to be traded or at least is secretly hoping to be traded, which in turn would explain his relatively poor Lakers playoff series.
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DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REGULAR SEASON REAL PLAYER RATINGS
(Raw ESPN player ratings / minutes)
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
2 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.978
3 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
4 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
5 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
6 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
7 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
8 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
9 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
10 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.636
11 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.607
12 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.587
13 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
14 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.495
ADJUSTMENT FOR DEFENDING
Made them miss defending is specifically how many shots would have gone in the basket that do not go in due to a player's defending of shooters. While steals and blocks are included in the real player rating, made them miss man to man defending is not. So players who can read offensive attacks, anticipate, rotate, hustle, and get in the face of shooters to prevent scores are disadvantaged slightly in the regular real player rating performance measure. There is no precise measurement system for made them miss defending in existence, because it is impossible to know exactly how many shots a player such as Kenyon Martin stops from going in the basket. So I decided to create an overall scale whose range is my best estimate of how important the made them miss factor is, and then rate all the players in equal increments along that scale. If one or more players are considered about equal in made them miss defending, then their adjustment factor is the average of the sum of the adjustment factors assigned to their ranks. These are the adjustments I think are the most accurate:
RNK PLAYER, TEAM POS ADJUSTMENT
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF -0.08
2 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.09
3 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.13
4 Allen Iverson, Den SG -0.08
5 J.R. Smith, Den SG -0.05
6 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.11
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF -0.01
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.05
9 Anthony Carter, Den PG -0.03
10 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.05
11 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.01
12 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.05
13 Taurean Green, Den PG -0.11
14 Chucky Atkins, Den PG -0.13
Now for the 2007-08 Real Player Ratings adjusted for made them miss defending:
DENVER NUGGETS 2007-08 REAL PLAYER RATINGS ADJUSTED FOR MADE THEM MISS DEFENDING
(Raw ESPN player ratings plus or minus made them miss defending adjustment / minutes)
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.011
2 Marcus Camby, Den C 1.004
3 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.907
4 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.898
5 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.888
6 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.833
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.752
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.686
9 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.674
10 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.657
11 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.597
12 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.545
13 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.526
14 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.445
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NUGGETS RANKED BY HOW MUCH THEY GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN 2007-08 (extracted from the above)
1 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.147
2 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.118
3 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.115
4 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.074
5 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.049
6 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.007
7 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.006
8 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 0.005
9 Marcus Camby, Den C -0.045
10 Nene Hilario, Den PF -0.146
11 Chucky Atkins, Den PG -0.218
12 Kenyon Martin, Den PF N/A
13 Anthony Carter, Den PG N/A
14 Taurean Green, Den PG N/A
Most improved Nugget: J.R. Smith
Other big improvements: Linas Kleiza and Yakhouba Diawara
Honorable mention: Bobby Jones
Substantially Better Despite High Base: Allen Iverson
Treaded Water: No Better, But No Worse Either: Carmelo Anthony, Eduardo Najera, Steven Hunter
Slightly Worse From a High Base: Marcus Camby
Biggest disappointment: Chucky Atkins
Other big disappointment: Nene
For reference, a reminder of the actual 2007-08 real player ratings of these players:
1 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
2 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.978
3 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
4 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
5 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
6 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
7 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
8 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
9 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
10 Taurean Green, Den PG 0.636
11 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.607
12 Steven Hunter, Den C 0.587
13 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
14 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 0.495
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The Coach's Demand for a Player (CDP) is minutes per game divided by real player rating. What follows is technically ACDP (Adjusted Coach's Demand for Players) because I am using the real player ratings adjusted for made them miss defending.
ACDP is a measure of how much a coach plays a player relative to that player's real performance. In theory, on a perfectly coached team, the best 9 or even the best 10 players on a team should have approximately the same ACDP, at least within about 10% of each other anyway. Actual statistics suggest the following evaluation scale for this:
SCALE FOR THE 10 PLAYERS WITH THE MOST PLAYING TIME
51 > Player has been insanely overplayed
45-51 Player has been very or extremely overplayed
40-45 Player has been overplayed
36-40 Player has been slightly overplayed
30-36 Midrange--Theoretically Optimal
26-30 Player has been slightly underplayed
22-26 Player has been underplayed
18-22 Player has been very or extremely underplayed
< 18 Player has been insanely underplayed
NUGGETS 2007-08 COACH'S DEMAND FOR PLAYERS
PRIMARY PLAYERS USUALLY PART OF NORMAL ROTATION
1 Allen Iverson, Den SG 46.52 Very Overplayed
2 Anthony Carter, Den PG 41.57 Overplayed
3 Marcus Camby, Den C 34.76 Optimal
4 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 33.63 Optimal
5 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 33.37 Optimal
6 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 32.78 Optimal
7 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 31.80 Optimal
8 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 31.22 Optimal
9 J.R. Smith, Den SG 21.63 Very underplayed
10 Nene Hilario, Den PF 19.93 Extremely underplayed
Ratio between #1 Iverson and #9 Smith: 2.15
SECONDARY PLAYERS NOT USUALLY PART OF NORMAL ROTATION
11 Yakhouba Diawara, Den SG 18.53
12 Bobby Jones, Den SG 13.55
13 Steven Hunter, Den C 10.55
14 Taurean Green, Den PG 6.27
The much lower numbers among the secondary players are normal and inevitable, because even coaches who make excellent use of their bench such as Greg Popovich and Phil Jackson do not try to put more than 10 or at the very most 11 players into the usual rotation.
George Karl and company had 6 players exactly correct in terms of playing time, but they badly missed the mark on the 4 others among the 10 Nuggets who were usually in the regular rotation. The only very overplayed Nugget was Allen Iverson, who was designated as team captain by Karl and was given free reign to divide his efforts between the two guard positions as he wished. PG Anthony Carter was overplayed, but it was not anywhere near as ridiculous as Karl's overplaying of PG Steve Blake in 2006-07, mostly because Carter was much better than expected and was actually better than Blake if the truth were told.
Two Nuggets in the primary rotation were heavily underplayed, or cheated of playing time if you prefer: J.R. Smith and Nene. Since Nene's season was filled with a major cancer scare and other injuries, I guess Mr. Karl and company get a pass on his seriously deficient minutes. But the Denver coaches do not get a waiver on their serious underplaying of J.R. Smith, a substantial chunk of whose minutes were taken by the less productive Anthony Carter and by the overworked Allen Iverson. Compared with Smith, Carter was given almost twice as much playing time per performance rating and Iverson was given more than twice as much.
As time permits, I will be doing these reviews for the teams who clearly have better coaches than the Nuggets and the results to prove it, such as the Lakers and the Pistons. We'll see whether coaches such as Popovich, Saunders, and Jackson have ratios between their most favored and their least favored players anywhere near as much as the more than 2.0 ratio put out by Karl.
I must say though, regardless of how Karl will compare to other coaches on this, he ended up doing somewhat better this year than last year on playing times, when he was even more wildly off the mark.
Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From April, 2008, Part 6
Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
______________________________________________
APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
The following comments were being made while the Nuggets were being blown out by the Lakers 4 games to zero in the 2008 playoffs.
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The Nuggets' lack of any plays and the lack of any 3-point shooting are two factors that take a heavy toll in the 2nd quarter. The Lakers are up by 10 at the half and everyone is yawning about this series, thinking now that the Nuggets are badly overmatched.
If the Nuggets were a smart team, they would not be badly overmatched. The Lakers are a smart team, unfortunately. In the West, the talent is surprisingly evenly distributed. The basketball know-how is not evenly distributed.
Byron Scott has had his high scoring point guard starting the whole season long at the position. George Karl finally started his high scoring PG at PG in game two of the playoff series. When was GK wrong? Was he wrong when he wasn't starting AI at PG all season long, or is he wrong tonight? He was wrong all season long. But the funny thing is, even if he was just wrong tonight, he would still be caught in a major error, whereas Byron Scott has definitely not made any errors of that magnitude all season long.
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Reminder to self for the game report (when it finally gets done in August lol): Compare the number of different starting lineups between the different coaches, and especially look to see how many coaches changed starting lineups for or during the playoffs.
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More Half-Time Notes:
Nuggets 0/10 on threes; the Nuggets having no 3-point shooting in critical playoff games is about as likely as the sun coming up in the morning. Lakers 6/12 on threes.
Assists: Lakers 17 Nuggets 5. Ouch, Iverson better find some open men in the 2nd half or he's going to make it hard on me. Is Iverson responsible at PG if he has seldom been the designated PG during the season. Mostly yes, because he is definitely a combo guard, and he has definitely been playing both positions at once during games. So he needs to step it up, win or lose.
__________________________________________
A rare Camby drive on Gasol for the foul. Camby makes both free throws, 67-66 Lakers.
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Iverson makes up for a poorly selected three and for a selfish charge by getting a great steal at the other end. Kleiza goes in for the slam, for 68-67 Nuggets. Phil Jackson lumbers off his seat and begs for a timeout.
One way or another, the Nuggets ARE much better with AI at PG and Carter on the bench. Even if it doesn't play out exactly as you might think it would.
___________________________________________
As dumb as they are, the Nuggets can sometimes look even dumber than they are. As the clock runs out in the third, they leave Vujacic in the right corner all alone, as if he is invisible and no one sees him, allowing the Lakers advantage over the Nuggets in 3-point shooting to become like the grand canyon. Vujacic might as well have been the only one on the court. Vujacic doesn't come from the ghetto either, I don't think.
89-79 Lakers after 3 quarters, 1st and 3rd quarters were even.
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Early in the 4th, Smitty makes a couple of threes, but the Lakers are still miles ahead in 3-point shooting.
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Martin shuts down Gasol but Najera can't stop Kobe drive for a +1. 101-93 Lakers 6 1/2 minutes left.
____________________________________________
LA lead doubles from 7 to 14 just past the half way point of the 4th. JR technical and Melo charge, Kobe Bryant 3.
Well, hopefully the Celtics will knock off these Lakers in the Championship.
____________________________________________
Kobe Bryant is a true SG. Iverson is not a true SG. You look at them in a game like this, compare how they play and what they do on the court, and how can you think that they should be playing the same position? Is it fair to Iverson to be classified as a SG? Was it fair to the 76'ers franchise? Is if fair to the Nuggets? No, no, and hell no.
____________________________________________
The Nuggets played well and still got beaten badly. Main reasons I can think of, and other observations:
1. The Nuggets were totally uncompetitive in 3-point shooting.
2. The Nuggets had a totally unplanned offense. That can only take you so far.
3. The Nuggets are nothing if not obnoxious. Iverson is the designated PG but he chooses this game of all games to play more as a SG and less as a PG than what has been the average. The Nuggets are utterly destroyed in assists. Anything to make my life more difficult, lol.
4. The Nuggets could never beat the Lakers in a series in 100 tries without Nene in there defending and rebounding. It just can't be done. The Nuggets are playing with one hand tied behind their backs if they don't have Nene. Camby, Martin, Najera, and Anthony don't add up to enough paint penetration prevention to be able to beat the Lakers. Man to man or zone doesn't matter much, the Lakers can adjust for either.
5. Has there ever been a critical playoff game in recent years where the Nuggets did not have more turnovers than their opponent? It was Nuggets 14 turnovers and Lakers 11 in this one.
6. At least Carmelo Anthony did not appear to be drunk during the game.
7. The series is a yawner after all.
___________________________________________
That is, this series is a yawner for the average fan, but not for me, because I like basketball too much for any series to be a yawner for me.
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Lakers 53 Nuggets 46 at the Half
The root of inconsistency is imbalance(s), and the Nuggets are sadly unbalanced on offense in the first half. Coach Karl's inferiority complex is on full display as he advises the Nuggets to attack the rim over and over and over again. But to be most successful, you need a balance between inside attacking and outside shooting.
Carmelo Anthony acts more like Shaquille O'Neal than like Carmelo Anthony by trying to make contested layups from point blank range, which he fails miserably at. The Nuggets are facing elimination, for all practical purposes, and the home crowd so far has not been able to get to see Anthony's trademark and traditional midrange jumper. This is all so very sad. At least the Nuggets are 4/8 from downtown though, just barely enough to keep them in this game.
Karl reportedly also ordered that the Nuggets pass the ball around more than in game 2, when they barely passed it around at all, but they have been unwilling or incapable of responding. Iverson started at PG in a tacit admission by Karl that his regular season lineup was more incorrect than correct, but now Iverson is playing as if he is still assigned to the 2-guard, with just 2 assists. The Nuggets are playing as if they don't know what a point guard is, and they completely lack any reliable playmaking capability. It seems that the Nuggets can't win even when they make a move in the right direction.
At least the overall number of assists is up some from the horrible game 2, the Nuggets have 11 assists and the Lakers 16 at the half.
Nene made a short, more or less token 5 minute appearance in the first half. Najera did at least as well as Martin guarding Bryant, and cost the Nuggets less easy inside scoring from Gasol/Odom while he was guarding Kobe than while Martin was guarding him. Kobe Bryant (6 assists) and Jordan Farmar (2 assists) provided the Lakers' playmaking identity and resulting efficiency in the first half. The overall Laker assist advantage is 16-11.
Nuggets from the field are 18/46 or 39.1%. Lakers from the field are 20/42 or 47.6%. There were 8 Nuggets turnovers and 6 Lakers turnovers.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
______________________________________________
APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
The following comments were being made while the Nuggets were being blown out by the Lakers 4 games to zero in the 2008 playoffs.
_____________________________________________
The Nuggets' lack of any plays and the lack of any 3-point shooting are two factors that take a heavy toll in the 2nd quarter. The Lakers are up by 10 at the half and everyone is yawning about this series, thinking now that the Nuggets are badly overmatched.
If the Nuggets were a smart team, they would not be badly overmatched. The Lakers are a smart team, unfortunately. In the West, the talent is surprisingly evenly distributed. The basketball know-how is not evenly distributed.
Byron Scott has had his high scoring point guard starting the whole season long at the position. George Karl finally started his high scoring PG at PG in game two of the playoff series. When was GK wrong? Was he wrong when he wasn't starting AI at PG all season long, or is he wrong tonight? He was wrong all season long. But the funny thing is, even if he was just wrong tonight, he would still be caught in a major error, whereas Byron Scott has definitely not made any errors of that magnitude all season long.
__________________________________________
Reminder to self for the game report (when it finally gets done in August lol): Compare the number of different starting lineups between the different coaches, and especially look to see how many coaches changed starting lineups for or during the playoffs.
__________________________________________
More Half-Time Notes:
Nuggets 0/10 on threes; the Nuggets having no 3-point shooting in critical playoff games is about as likely as the sun coming up in the morning. Lakers 6/12 on threes.
Assists: Lakers 17 Nuggets 5. Ouch, Iverson better find some open men in the 2nd half or he's going to make it hard on me. Is Iverson responsible at PG if he has seldom been the designated PG during the season. Mostly yes, because he is definitely a combo guard, and he has definitely been playing both positions at once during games. So he needs to step it up, win or lose.
__________________________________________
A rare Camby drive on Gasol for the foul. Camby makes both free throws, 67-66 Lakers.
__________________________________________
Iverson makes up for a poorly selected three and for a selfish charge by getting a great steal at the other end. Kleiza goes in for the slam, for 68-67 Nuggets. Phil Jackson lumbers off his seat and begs for a timeout.
One way or another, the Nuggets ARE much better with AI at PG and Carter on the bench. Even if it doesn't play out exactly as you might think it would.
___________________________________________
As dumb as they are, the Nuggets can sometimes look even dumber than they are. As the clock runs out in the third, they leave Vujacic in the right corner all alone, as if he is invisible and no one sees him, allowing the Lakers advantage over the Nuggets in 3-point shooting to become like the grand canyon. Vujacic might as well have been the only one on the court. Vujacic doesn't come from the ghetto either, I don't think.
89-79 Lakers after 3 quarters, 1st and 3rd quarters were even.
____________________________________________
Early in the 4th, Smitty makes a couple of threes, but the Lakers are still miles ahead in 3-point shooting.
___________________________________________
Martin shuts down Gasol but Najera can't stop Kobe drive for a +1. 101-93 Lakers 6 1/2 minutes left.
____________________________________________
LA lead doubles from 7 to 14 just past the half way point of the 4th. JR technical and Melo charge, Kobe Bryant 3.
Well, hopefully the Celtics will knock off these Lakers in the Championship.
____________________________________________
Kobe Bryant is a true SG. Iverson is not a true SG. You look at them in a game like this, compare how they play and what they do on the court, and how can you think that they should be playing the same position? Is it fair to Iverson to be classified as a SG? Was it fair to the 76'ers franchise? Is if fair to the Nuggets? No, no, and hell no.
____________________________________________
The Nuggets played well and still got beaten badly. Main reasons I can think of, and other observations:
1. The Nuggets were totally uncompetitive in 3-point shooting.
2. The Nuggets had a totally unplanned offense. That can only take you so far.
3. The Nuggets are nothing if not obnoxious. Iverson is the designated PG but he chooses this game of all games to play more as a SG and less as a PG than what has been the average. The Nuggets are utterly destroyed in assists. Anything to make my life more difficult, lol.
4. The Nuggets could never beat the Lakers in a series in 100 tries without Nene in there defending and rebounding. It just can't be done. The Nuggets are playing with one hand tied behind their backs if they don't have Nene. Camby, Martin, Najera, and Anthony don't add up to enough paint penetration prevention to be able to beat the Lakers. Man to man or zone doesn't matter much, the Lakers can adjust for either.
5. Has there ever been a critical playoff game in recent years where the Nuggets did not have more turnovers than their opponent? It was Nuggets 14 turnovers and Lakers 11 in this one.
6. At least Carmelo Anthony did not appear to be drunk during the game.
7. The series is a yawner after all.
___________________________________________
That is, this series is a yawner for the average fan, but not for me, because I like basketball too much for any series to be a yawner for me.
___________________________________________
Lakers 53 Nuggets 46 at the Half
The root of inconsistency is imbalance(s), and the Nuggets are sadly unbalanced on offense in the first half. Coach Karl's inferiority complex is on full display as he advises the Nuggets to attack the rim over and over and over again. But to be most successful, you need a balance between inside attacking and outside shooting.
Carmelo Anthony acts more like Shaquille O'Neal than like Carmelo Anthony by trying to make contested layups from point blank range, which he fails miserably at. The Nuggets are facing elimination, for all practical purposes, and the home crowd so far has not been able to get to see Anthony's trademark and traditional midrange jumper. This is all so very sad. At least the Nuggets are 4/8 from downtown though, just barely enough to keep them in this game.
Karl reportedly also ordered that the Nuggets pass the ball around more than in game 2, when they barely passed it around at all, but they have been unwilling or incapable of responding. Iverson started at PG in a tacit admission by Karl that his regular season lineup was more incorrect than correct, but now Iverson is playing as if he is still assigned to the 2-guard, with just 2 assists. The Nuggets are playing as if they don't know what a point guard is, and they completely lack any reliable playmaking capability. It seems that the Nuggets can't win even when they make a move in the right direction.
At least the overall number of assists is up some from the horrible game 2, the Nuggets have 11 assists and the Lakers 16 at the half.
Nene made a short, more or less token 5 minute appearance in the first half. Najera did at least as well as Martin guarding Bryant, and cost the Nuggets less easy inside scoring from Gasol/Odom while he was guarding Kobe than while Martin was guarding him. Kobe Bryant (6 assists) and Jordan Farmar (2 assists) provided the Lakers' playmaking identity and resulting efficiency in the first half. The overall Laker assist advantage is 16-11.
Nuggets from the field are 18/46 or 39.1%. Lakers from the field are 20/42 or 47.6%. There were 8 Nuggets turnovers and 6 Lakers turnovers.
Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From April, 2008, Part 5
Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
______________________________________________
APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
The following comments were being made while the Nuggets were being blown out by the Lakers 4 games to zero in the 2008 playoffs.
_____________________________________________
Someone who knows what he is talking about said:
My response was:
I cosign most of this. And yes, one of the reasons you can't put Martin out on Kobe is because Melo is hardly at all improved on defending from prior years, and we all know how good he was in prior years, lol. If you think Carmelo Anthony is going to all of a sudden become a lock down paint defender just because you have decided to have Martin guard Bryant, then sorry, it won't work out for you. Camby needs help for his reasons and Melo needs help for his reasons. And those two need more help than is available from Najera and Kleiza. Against the best teams such as the Lakers, the Nuggets defense with no Nene is little more than a house of cards. Remove the Martin card and the whole thing comes tumbling down.
______________________________________________
"The Obstinate and Annoying One," also known as "The Mouse":
The response of "The Cat" (me):
If the Nuggets had used most or all of my improvements, they would not be playing the Lakers right now. They would definitely have home court advantage, and they would be playing, most likely, the Jazz, the Suns, or the Rockets. The Lakers would come in the semifinals or even the Western Conference Finals. How do I know this? I don't know it as a total 100% certainty, true, but it is extremely likely, based on many dozens of hours of proving my points and seeing them proven out in real games as the season has unfolded.
____________________________________________
The following are comments made during game 2 of the Lakers 4 games to zero sweep of the Nuggets:
Well, well, well, well. lol. The pretending is put aside and AI starts at PG and Carter does not start. Naturally, the Nuggets are off to a far better start than in game 1.
I'd say "another river has been crossed in the quest for the ring," but I figure Karl will go back to starting Carter again before the series is out. So I won't say it.
______________________________________________
Oh no, now we have to worry that Karl will give to Carter many of Smith's minutes.
______________________________________________
But Karl is always operating from deep in the hole. He partially corrects one of his mistakes, but now he has a new mistake going that he will stubbornly refuse to correct even if the Nuggets lose 4 games to 0, namely, having Martin guard Kobe Bryant. Tonight Bryant is already 5/7 while being guarded by Martin. Yeah right, just because Martin is quick and has good instincts, you put him on Bryant. You put a PF on a guard. Yeah right George, anything you say. You have won plenty of championships doing it your way, so you must be right.
______________________________________________
Does Pau Gasol come from the ghetto? I doubt it.
______________________________________________
Well, Kobe Bryant can't be stopped but the Nuggets nevertheless are even after one quarter, due to the much better starting lineup and due to AI hitting a few shots. The Nuggets have a better chance of winning a game against the Lakers if they DON'T get overly paranoid about Bryant. The Nuggets have all kinds of offensive weapons with which they can keep up with Kobe Bryant, so to get overly paranoid about Bryant, (and putting Martin on Bryant means the Nuggets are overly paranoid), is stupid.
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A rare sighting of Nene early in the 2nd quarter.
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Wow, GK has called 2 timeouts at precisely the right time as of early in the 2nd quarter, amazing. Could it be that he actually thinks the Nuggets can win this game? Probably not.
____________________________________________
The Nuggets 3-point game is non-existent, Carmelo Anthony is not getting the ball enough, and the Nuggets are in a scoring drought. (Yes, all of those 3 are connected to some extent.) Also, what else is new?
____________________________________________
On the one hand the Nuggets can't possibly beat the Lakers in a series without Nene. On the other hand, it's typical of the snake bitten Nuggets franchise that Nene finally plays in game 2 of the playoffs, after missing most of the season. Nene is the kind of player who gets a lot better with a lot of playing time, precisely what he didn't get this year. So for the Nuggets, it seems that the good news is never enough to make up for all the damage from the bad news.
___________________________________________
Derek Fisher is not a high scoring PG. So Kobe Bryant could safely be contained by Iverson and Smith working in tandem to do that. Or Yakhouba Diawara and Iverson. Or Yak and Smith. Martin alone doesn't do it, sorry.
___________________________________________
A rare sighting of Martin stopping Gasol at the hoop, about 1/2 way through the 2nd quarter.
___________________________________________
Linas Kleiza fights to stop the Laker offensive rebounding train, nice work.
__________________________________________
Damn, as soon as I say that, Kleiza hurts his elbow at the offensive end on a drive. Kleiza has clearly come correct to play in the playoffs for the first time ever.
In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
______________________________________________
APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES
The following comments were being made while the Nuggets were being blown out by the Lakers 4 games to zero in the 2008 playoffs.
_____________________________________________
Someone who knows what he is talking about said:
The reason why Camby was caught off of Gasol so many times had nothing to do with what kind of man defender he is. Kobe beat Marting off the dribble a few times and dished it off when Camby came to help, Odom got offensive rebounds or drove it in, and did the same thing. LUKE WALTON burned Kleiza and Melo a couple times and dished it to Gasol. The nuggets team defense is terrible. Camby is the anchor but they need to keep martin down low with him, and pray that 1 perimeter player is capable of playing a good defensive game. Smith needs to keep coming off the bench and scoring, Najera just needs to do his thing, and Carter needs to be put on the IR. I think Karl will make some adjustments to the Triangle and their defense should be better next game with a much better result.
My response was:
I cosign most of this. And yes, one of the reasons you can't put Martin out on Kobe is because Melo is hardly at all improved on defending from prior years, and we all know how good he was in prior years, lol. If you think Carmelo Anthony is going to all of a sudden become a lock down paint defender just because you have decided to have Martin guard Bryant, then sorry, it won't work out for you. Camby needs help for his reasons and Melo needs help for his reasons. And those two need more help than is available from Najera and Kleiza. Against the best teams such as the Lakers, the Nuggets defense with no Nene is little more than a house of cards. Remove the Martin card and the whole thing comes tumbling down.
______________________________________________
"The Obstinate and Annoying One," also known as "The Mouse":
The Nuggets lost by 14 point on the road in the playoffs against a team that has completely destroyed them this season. There was nothing controversial about Karl's decision and the Nuggets didn't get destroyed defensively. As ugly as game 1 was, it was an improvement for the Nuggets against the Lakers so of course it was worth it.
I don't want to the Nuggets lose by 30+ points, which is what will happen if the Nuggets used your suggestion.
The response of "The Cat" (me):
If the Nuggets had used most or all of my improvements, they would not be playing the Lakers right now. They would definitely have home court advantage, and they would be playing, most likely, the Jazz, the Suns, or the Rockets. The Lakers would come in the semifinals or even the Western Conference Finals. How do I know this? I don't know it as a total 100% certainty, true, but it is extremely likely, based on many dozens of hours of proving my points and seeing them proven out in real games as the season has unfolded.
____________________________________________
The following are comments made during game 2 of the Lakers 4 games to zero sweep of the Nuggets:
Well, well, well, well. lol. The pretending is put aside and AI starts at PG and Carter does not start. Naturally, the Nuggets are off to a far better start than in game 1.
I'd say "another river has been crossed in the quest for the ring," but I figure Karl will go back to starting Carter again before the series is out. So I won't say it.
______________________________________________
Oh no, now we have to worry that Karl will give to Carter many of Smith's minutes.
______________________________________________
But Karl is always operating from deep in the hole. He partially corrects one of his mistakes, but now he has a new mistake going that he will stubbornly refuse to correct even if the Nuggets lose 4 games to 0, namely, having Martin guard Kobe Bryant. Tonight Bryant is already 5/7 while being guarded by Martin. Yeah right, just because Martin is quick and has good instincts, you put him on Bryant. You put a PF on a guard. Yeah right George, anything you say. You have won plenty of championships doing it your way, so you must be right.
______________________________________________
Does Pau Gasol come from the ghetto? I doubt it.
______________________________________________
Well, Kobe Bryant can't be stopped but the Nuggets nevertheless are even after one quarter, due to the much better starting lineup and due to AI hitting a few shots. The Nuggets have a better chance of winning a game against the Lakers if they DON'T get overly paranoid about Bryant. The Nuggets have all kinds of offensive weapons with which they can keep up with Kobe Bryant, so to get overly paranoid about Bryant, (and putting Martin on Bryant means the Nuggets are overly paranoid), is stupid.
______________________________________________
A rare sighting of Nene early in the 2nd quarter.
______________________________________________
Wow, GK has called 2 timeouts at precisely the right time as of early in the 2nd quarter, amazing. Could it be that he actually thinks the Nuggets can win this game? Probably not.
____________________________________________
The Nuggets 3-point game is non-existent, Carmelo Anthony is not getting the ball enough, and the Nuggets are in a scoring drought. (Yes, all of those 3 are connected to some extent.) Also, what else is new?
____________________________________________
On the one hand the Nuggets can't possibly beat the Lakers in a series without Nene. On the other hand, it's typical of the snake bitten Nuggets franchise that Nene finally plays in game 2 of the playoffs, after missing most of the season. Nene is the kind of player who gets a lot better with a lot of playing time, precisely what he didn't get this year. So for the Nuggets, it seems that the good news is never enough to make up for all the damage from the bad news.
___________________________________________
Derek Fisher is not a high scoring PG. So Kobe Bryant could safely be contained by Iverson and Smith working in tandem to do that. Or Yakhouba Diawara and Iverson. Or Yak and Smith. Martin alone doesn't do it, sorry.
___________________________________________
A rare sighting of Martin stopping Gasol at the hoop, about 1/2 way through the 2nd quarter.
___________________________________________
Linas Kleiza fights to stop the Laker offensive rebounding train, nice work.
__________________________________________
Damn, as soon as I say that, Kleiza hurts his elbow at the offensive end on a drive. Kleiza has clearly come correct to play in the playoffs for the first time ever.
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