Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From April, 2008, Part 4

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

The following comments were being made while the Nuggets were being blown out by the Lakers 4 games to zero in the 2008 playoffs.
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You see, most of what he (George Karl) says is funny if you think about it. The man has just been totally destroyed defensively after he makes a controversial move and he says it was "75% worth it." Then he says he will probably keep doing it. If he is not incompetent, then why does he talk and stubbornly persist with mistakes as if he is incompetent all the time?
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Najera played extremely well defensively and Martin played well defensively, fine. But the Nuggets as a whole were a total disaster defensively and the main reason was that K-Mart was too often out in god's creation guarding Kobe Bryant. When the cat is away, the mice will play, my friend.

I used to wonder about why Nuggets fans trash Camby every time he has an off game as if he was worthless. Now I think I know the answer. Camby is expected to totally lock down the paint practically by himself while all the Nuggets forwards are rotating out to the perimeter all the time to make up for weak guard defending and weak transition defending. That is the underlying explanation for why Nuggets fans regularly trash the defensive player of the year.

It's sort of the defensive other side of the coin of how too many think of Iverson's roll. Iverson is expected to be almost perfect, to do almost everything on offense well, and to play two positions at once. Similarly, Camby is expected to be just about perfect, to do almost everything on defense well, and to play two positions at once on defense. At the root of all of this is the difficulty too many people have understanding that since basketball is a team game, you can not expect one player to meet that set of expectations regularly no matter who they are.
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The "Obstinate and Annoying One" was both moving in my direction and seemingly confused at the same time:

During the regular season, because AI plays 40+ MPG, he has to have minutes where he isn't the PG. AI is not an effective NBA player when he forced to play PG all of his minutes and that is proven over his career.

My response was:

This can be interpreted as you largely agreeing with me, because you are admitting that Iverson does play PG and you are not saying how limited this is. No one on our side is insisting that Iverson be the PG for ALL of the time he is out there. So your statement could be interpreted as being on our side. Don't make a statement open to two interpretations and then claim someone doesn't understand your position. Of course they don't understand your position, you didn't state it with enough detail.

If you are claiming that Iverson should be the PG only for limited minutes. during when it makes no sense to have another PG (mostly Carter) out there, than that is what you should state. About all you have ever stated besides the relatively vague statement just quoted is that "Iverson can not play PG", another statement open to varying interpretations. You have never explained why Iverson can not be an effective PG without using the illogical approach of describing how he plays SG. And as indicated, you have left conflicting statements as to whether you think Iverson can be an effective PG or not. Your position is still not clear and, quite honestly, I don't think it ever will be clear.
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More from "Obstinate and Annoying":

During the regular season, AI can't play PG more than half of his minutes on the court.

Me:

Well, this one even more strongly implies you have rethought your idea that Iverson can not play PG well at all, and that therefore he should not play the position.
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The other guy, "The Mouse":

Dude, you are so twisted on this subject. I'm sure that makes sense in your world, but it is really a completely meaningless statement.

Me, "The Cat":

In my world, I don't make logically fallacious arguments. You make an illogical argument to me and I will catch it every time.

Those who claim that AI can not run the point well need to come up with other arguments other than using how he plays the SG position. Otherwise, it is their statements that are meaningless, not mine. Just to make absolutely sure you understand, arguing that AI can not play PG well based on how he plays SG is like arguing that someone who lives in Florida would go beserk from the cold and snow if he were forced to live in Northern Minnesota. You don't know how that person would react to living in Northern Minnesota based on his living in Florida. He might love Northern Minnesota.
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On the Subject of J.R. Smith "The Mouse" said:

You are vastly overrating JR Smith. It isn't just about points per minute, which of course are pace inflated on the Nuggets, but it is about maturity and decision making. JR still has his good JR and bad JR moments on the court. The bad JR is very bad for the Nuggets chances of winning. Once JR was given and settled into the role of 6th man, the bad JR rarely shows up.

"The Cat" (Me) said:

Don't make it sound like all immature players are forbidden from starting until they become mature. In fact, the relevant question is: why do some immature players with inconsistent decision making but a lot of raw skills get to start no questions asked while others are discriminated against viciously? Although I already had some answers for this in the special report series 'The J.R. Smith Fiasco," I will have more to say on this subject during the coming months in the special report series "Allen Iverson: What Could Have Been."

Also, if you do not start Smitty you don't find out for sure whether you are dealing with the good JR or the bad JR until deep into the second half, when it can be too late if you have the bad JR to take him out of the game and recover from the damage he has caused. Trying to depend on the bad JR to help you win in the 4th quarter is almost as asinine as not starting him.
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"The Mouse":

All we agree on is that Anthony Carter shouldn't be playing more than a handful of minutes against the Lakers.

"The Cat":

Well, that's better than nothing. Seriously though, we definitely agree on more than just that, because I have caught you agreeing that AI can run the point without it being a disaster for the Nuggets offensively, and we both agree that Camby needs help of some kind in the paint or you can have a defensive disaster. Furthermore, you never ever said anything at all positive about JR Smith until now.
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"The Obstinate and Annoying One," also known as "The Mouse":

Again, the Nuggets were not a total disaster defensively and the score would have been much worse if Kobe was allowed to go off.

"Nuggets 1," also known as "The Cat":

If you don't think 128 points with 60 points in the paint is a defensive disaster, I don't want to think about how bad it would have to be before you thought it was a disaster.
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"The Obstinate and Annoying One," also known as "The Mouse" really hates Marcus Camby:

No, Nuggets fans trash Camby because 1) they understand his weaknesses, 2) he takes games off even when he is playing in them and 3) they know he really isn't a good defender.

People expect Camby to actually guard his man one on one occasionally and for to actually rotate out to open shooters when it is his responsibility. He often fails to do both of those.

"Nuggets 1," also known as "The Cat":

Camby doesn't take games off, but it can seem that way to some degree if the Nuggets' forwards are missing assignments, rotations, or transitions, and it can also seem that way if a coach does something goofy like putting Kenyon Martin on Kobe Bryant. You have a unique talent and a special brand of defense in Camby that was good enough for him to be defensive player of the year. If you spoil that by screwing up the rest of the interior defense you have only yourself to blame. One man can not hold down the paint by himself, least of all Camby. But that doesn't mean Camby is not a valuable defender; he is very valuable in combination with a big man such as Nene or, at a minimum, Kenyon Martin. Take away Martin and what do you have? Swiss cheese.
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"The Obstinate and Annoying One," also known as "The Mouse":

My statement was very clear and not open to any interpretations. It is a comprehension issue on your part.

"Nuggets 1," also known as "The Cat":
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Your statements are almost never totally clear and are almost always open to various interpretations. I still don't know how much damage you think happens to the Nuggets offense while Iverson is playing PG, which is the heart of one of your arguments with me. You now have said that the Nuggets have been forced to use Iverson at PG, which is not technically so, because Carter has been playing more than 30 minutes a game, and Atkins and Taurean Green have been available for weeks.

But leaving that confusion aside, and assuming you agree that Iverson has in fact been running the point, if you truly believe that Iverson can not run the point effectively, then how in the hell did the Nuggets win 50 games this year? You can NOT possibly win 50 games with no effective point guards.
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"The Obstinate and Annoying One," also known as "The Mouse":

Whatever you want to believe. Please continue on your quest to prove 2+2=5.

"Nuggets 1," also known as "The Cat":

If you want to think of it that way, in the series "Allen Iverson: What Could Have Been," I will be proving that 10-3=7, or something close to that. When you relieve a combo guard of all PG responsibilities, you end up with less of a player than you could have had.
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"The Obstinate and Annoying One," also known as "The Mouse":

No, that is nothing like what has been presented about AI. Again, a complete failure on your part to comprehend.

"Nuggets 1," also known as "The Cat":

Nothing but the illogical stuff has been presented by your side on the AI issue. But hey, you have many moons to "present" why AI can not be an effective PG. All you have to do is avoid what everyone on your side does all the time; you have to avoid broad, sweeping statements that describe how he plays SG. If you can explain, with as much proof as you have, specific skills that Iverson lacks, or specific ways of thinking that Iverson is incapable of, which makes him unqualified to be a PG, then you score points in the argument. Also, is there any history you can point to of Iverson failing while being designated as the PG? But do not, I repeat, make broad, sweeping statements that are merely descriptions of how he plays SG.
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JR has been severely discriminated against due to overreaction to his immaturity.

And under Karl, the Nuggets are not trying to win a Championship, they are just trying to show that the player personalities and the personality of the team as a whole are improving, so that at some unknown time in the future, they might finally have the personalities needed to make a run for the Championship. LoL at the way Karl thinks.

JR Smith is not a "petulant child." He is a very young basketball player who unfortunately needs more experience on and off the court than the average player his age needs to be able to achieve more reliability and consistency. It is the anti-JR Smith crowd, the ones who not long ago were agreeing that Smith should not play at all, who are nothing more than petulant children, who think that every basketball player needs to be totally smooth, sophisticated, and free of any substantial downside, so as to not upset anyone's delicate sensitivities. It was that petulant crowd that was calling for Smith to be traded at all costs not long ago.
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Lol again, at the idea that someone can think that it is a mistake to start Smith, but not think that it is dangerous to be at the mercy of his inconsistency in a decisive 4th quarter. Please, take one side or another. And if you think that Smith should not start and be pulled out after, say, 6-12 minutes of poor play, then, by all means, say that if that is your position. Although that would be immensely anti-Smith, it would at least be logically consistent. But you can't say that Smith is not good enough to start, but he is good enough to be a reliable crunch time performer.
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"The Mouse" made a really goofy statement:

Camby could run the point for a few minutes a game without it being a disaster for the Nuggets. Lord knows he tries. Of course, the emphasis is on a few minutes.

As far as Camby needing help, it all depends upon match ups. Bad things happen to the Nuggets defense when Camby has to guard a man.

The response of yours truly, "The Cat":

Camby should never be running the point and he should always be getting help from K-Mart in the paint. You can't run the Nuggets as if Nene is playing when he is clearly not playing.

Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From April, 2008, Part 3

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

The following commentary was made during the Lakers sweep of the Nuggets 4 games to zero in round one of the 2008 NBA playoffs.
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I'm cheating a little on my time-out from writing. I still don't have my damn property sold, but there was good progress overall today, though.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE SERIES
1.If Nene is not playing you have to play Yakhouba Diawara, like it or not. The fact that he is not ready to play offensively, assuming that is true, is the fault of the Nuggets coaching staff. Camby-Martin-Najera can not shut down anyone important and they form a swiss cheese defense in the paint. And Camby has a tendency to be swanped defensively without any big man around to help defend the paint. One of only a very few ways the Nuggets can win a game against the Lakers is if the sum of their points in the paint and free throw points is greather than that sum for the Lakers.

2. Both Camby and Kenyon Martin were all but shut down offensively, yet another example of how when you have no set plays at all you can have key players come up empty offensively too easily. How can the Nuggets expect to win when they have as many "all offense players" and "all defense players" as they do? They can't expect to win that way. The Nuggets need as many of the following things as possible: Camby, Martin, and Najera need to score more and Carmelo Anthony and Linas Kleiza have to defend better.

3. It was nice to see Carter's minutes limited to some extent. It was also nice to see that retired coach Jeff Van Gundy is yet another color commentator who agrees that the Carter-Iverson backcourt is more trouble than it's worth. There hasn't been one commentator yet who has NOT made the point that the Carter-Iverson lineup is dubious and can not possibly get you to the Western Finals.

4. The Nugget's defense was so lacking that the Lakers didn't even need what I call an offensive identity to offensively roll in game 1; they had 100% dominance in the paint, so their forwards and centers went to town passing to each other up front all game long. In summary, this game was a complete and total defensive breakdown and was NOT due to any special offensive strategies or skills from the Lakers.

5 It was not nice to see the TV commentators practically making fun of Anthony's relatively lax defending. Has GK really and truly molded Anthony into being a better defender, and/or into being a more balanced player as some have claimed? I don't think so. If not, why not?

6. It was nice to see that Carmelo Anthony did not seem to be drunk during the game.
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I said the overall combination up front failed miserably. But since you brought up Martin, I'll tell you what I didn't like. I didn't like to see how much K-Mart was guarding Kobe Bryant. You almost never want a power forward guarding a shooting guard to the extent that happened in this game. If you have that, you are admitting up front that there is something seriously wrong with your defense in general, and about your guards' defending in particular.

And you are making what might be a bad situation worse. If K-Mart is guarding Kobe, then that means Najera, Kleiza, Camby, and Anthony are all that's left to guard the likes of Odom, Gasol, Radmanovic, and Walton. That spells disaster, and that is exactly what the Nuggets had defensively in game 1.

Not having Nene makes it a major blunder to put Kenyon Martin on Kobe Bryant. Put Yak in the game to guard Kobe and stop disrespecting J.R. Smith's improved defending. Do not think you can beat the Lakers by having K-Mart guard Kobe Bryant, and by therefore leaving the Laker's centers and forwards to run all over you.
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JR Smith played 23 minutes before fouling out, not 2. I want to keep Smitty in the game, but if he fouls out, he should come out, because I don't want him fouling, I want him defending, disrupting and stealing.

It matters for every player what position that player plays. The Nuggets' coaches have failed in general to make clear who does what in basketball games, a task which starts with respecting what position or 2 positions at the most a player is most suited for. So it does matter what position K-Mart plays, whether or not you are facing Gasol/Odom/Radmanovic/Walton, but especially if you are.

Camby without Nene or K-Mart helping defensively up front ranges from reckless to automatic disaster, with the damage largely depending on who the Nuggets are playing and whether it is a playoff game or not.

Wow, this is the first time ever I heard something from you about Carter playing too much. Did you flip over to our side finally? If so, welcome to it. You won't regret it and I will not hold your former opinion, that there is nothing wrong with the Carter PG and Iverson SG backcourt, against you. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone's opinion changes sometimes. I am still disturbed by my bonehead claim that the Raptors are almost last in assists per game. I must have been half asleep when I thought I saw that and then added it to a paragraph that had a related but different point.
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"The obstinate and annoying one" contested me as follows:

No, you are completely and totally wrong. The Nuggets have plenty of flexibility with their roster that they can play Kenyon as defensive SG and still have big bodies play defense at SF and PF.

My response was:

Of course they can do that, the question is whether they get decent results if they do that, and this game is a textbook example of the terrible results they get if they choose to do that.
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Then "The obstinate and annoying one" said:

The Nuggets have a group of 6'8" guys that can do a fine job if they rotate the way they are suppose to. As long as Melo and LK don't fall asleep on their rotations, the Nuggets will be vastly improved.

And I said:

Melo and LK do fall asleep on their rotations too much, and they are not highly skilled defenders to begin with, which means you can not divert K-Mart from defending Laker forwards/centers without paying a huge, unacceptable price.
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It seems that you are agreeing with me and you don't realize it. As I already said, Camby without Nene or K-Mart up front is automatic disaster against a team like the Lakers. Same thing if it's Najera without Nene or K-Mart, with or without Camby.
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Laughs are to be had on internet forums for those who know what is truly funny. Are there ANY binary decisions in basketball??? Also, GK is probably the only coach in NBA history to describe one of his players as "living in fantasyland," so it WAS a GK kind of statement.
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Now "The obstinate and annoying" guy had moved in my direction:

Ideally, Anthony Carter wouldn't start, however, the Nuggets didn't have a better, healthy option. During the regular season, because AI plays 40+ MPG, he has to have minutes where he isn't the PG. AI is not an effective NBA player when he forced to play PG all of his minutes and that is proven over his career. What AI did in HS and College is completely and totally irrelevant.

My response:

Well if all you are saying is that AI can't play PG all the time but can play it much of the time, you have flipped your position and you agree with me and I agree with you.

As for AI's career, all it proves is that if a PG is moved to the SG position, there will be people making the logically fallacious argument that, judged by how he plays SG, he would not make a good PG. It is a logical trap, nothing more, nothing less.
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Then that guy complained about my J.R. Smith position:

Starting JR Smith is a horrible choice because he isn't mature enough for it. As a 6th man, he can come in the game and attack, attack and attack some more on offense. All of the great teams have someone like that off their bench and JR is the Nugget best suited for that role.

My answer was:

J.R. Smith is about 2nd in the NBA in the number of 20-point games from off the bench. It's another one of those facts that raises a huge red flag about the management of the Nuggets. It's one thing to have a spark 6th man, it's quite another to be wasting someone who is AHEAD of most starting SGs in points scored per 36 or 48 minutes by not having him start. Smith is alot more than just a spark obviously; sparks other than Ginobili and possibly a couple of other exceptions are no where near Smith's league.

Also, having a truly outstanding spark 6th man is more of a luxury than a necessity, even among the best teams of the West. Ginobili not starting has for a long time been little more than a technicality, since he comes in so quickly and doesn't leave much after he comes in.
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At this point "The obstinate and annoying one" was a lot less obstinate and annoying:

The problem this season is not that Carter starts, it is that Karl plays him too much. This problem becomes worse when Karl fails to recognize the teams that present bad match ups for Carter. The Lakers are one such team.

My response:

Here you are once again very close to agreeing with me. I'd say we are about 60% in agreement if you agree that Iverson does and can play PG effectively, and 40% in agreement if you disagree. Before this, I was thinking you were 0% to at best 20% in agreement.

Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From April, 2008, Part 2

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

Your pro basketball publisher was aghast when Carmelo Anthony celebrated the Nuggts squeaking into the playoffs by partying most of the night and then weaving across traffic lanes while driving under the influence and getting pulled over and cited for driving under the influence. The following posts relate to the incident:
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I meant by "wild type of team" a team that has extreme inconsistency on both offense and defense from one game to the next, because roles and strategies are not clearly enough defined, and because specific tactics are few and far between. I didn't mean wild in the sense that you thought.

Guess what though? I honestly think that if you have a wild team in the sense I meant it, it can lead to a wild team in the sense that you are thinking of: players who are wild off the court. I bet anything you could prove a correlation between those two wilds.

On the other hand, you could have a team that is wild off the court but is not wild on the court, in basketball management terms.

But I don't think the Nuggets this year are more than slightly more wild off the court than the average NBA team, although that is just an educated hunch.
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Right now the situation is:

1. There was a traffic stop, which is a special type of arrest but is technically not a full scale arrest due to the light penalties associated with most traffic stops. It became more of a full scale arrest when Carmelo Anthony was booked. But it was "booked on suspicion" and there are as yet no formal charges and there may never be any charges.
2. This stop was on Interstate 25 in Denver. The time was about 5:23 am, so there was little traffic and relatively little risk of a car crash on the Interstate at the time, whether it was DWI, DUI, DWD (driving while distracted), or DWE (driving while exhausted).
3. Melo's car was drifting between lanes, but that drifting did not create a risk of an accident at the time, due to the light traffic, and because there is no report that there was a near crash of any kind. The drifting could have been caused by cell phone or CD player usage, or simply due to the driver being extremely tired. It is not a crime to be driving while extremely tired. It is a crime in New York State to drive while holding and talking on a cell phone, but that is not a crime in Colorado.
4. Melo cooperated completely including consenting to a blood test. Results are not expected for about two weeks.
5. According to a major news source, Anthony "failed a series of sobriety tests." However, failing of sobriety tests can be caused by someone being extremely tired alone, or by a combination of someone being extremely tired and very slightly inebriated, but below DWI and DUI levels.
6. There was no breathalyzer, which can instantly clear someone, but which is not trusted by many jurisdictions. Rather, there was a blood test, which of course everyone would think of as reliable.
7. There is still today a huge legal difference between DUI and DWI, because DUI is considered to be only mildly dangerous, while DWI is just plain dangerous. If this turns out to be DUI, it would be something that until about 20 years ago was considered a minor offense, but is now more serious as a result of the "War on Drugs" and the "War on Crime." Even today though, DUI is a much less serious offense than is DWI.
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8. Further developments to come, and questions surrounding them:

blood test results in two weeks: DWI, DUI, or Sober?
--What delay will there be, if any, between the results and any charges?
--The NBA can not suspend with just blood test results and no charges (yet) can they?
--If DUI, can the charges be bargained away?
--If charges are bargained away, could the NBA suspend for a game or two anyway? I highly doubt it.

If DUI and the charges are filed immediately
--Does the NBA have the right to suspend before there is a conviction or can they suspend just for charges?
--Will the NBA suspend at all, even on a conviction, for the relatively minor DUI offense?
--If the NBA suspends for a DUI conviction, but not on mere charges, it will be for games next season, because there is no way a conviction will happen so quickly that the Nuggets are still in the playoffs when it happens.

If DWI and the charges are filed immediately
--Does the NBA have the right to suspend before there is a conviction or can they suspend just for the charges?
--I am assuming a DWI conviction would generate a suspension. Anyone have any idea about how many games it would be?
--If the NBA suspends for a DWI conviction, but not on mere charges, it will be for games next season, because there is no way a conviction will happen so quickly that the Nuggets are still in the playoffs when it happens.

I don't trust the NBA on something like this. I wonder why? They do have a track record of being fair and evenhanded in their Nuggets punishments, don't they?


Anyone who knows reliable answers to any of the questions above regarding how the NBA would react to the various possiblities, please clue us in. Anyone know of any other recent DUI or DWI situations and how the League reacted?
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The Denver Coach clearly seems to think everything important is decided in advance. His lame excuses and his monthly win quotas are just about like something from a comedy movie. According to Karl, the Nuggets could not end up in the top 4 of the West despite being in the top 4 in talent. Why? It was inevitable, because the great tide of history dictated that little old Denver would not be able to reach the top 4.

Who knows how many specific reasons in total have been spinning around in his head, but here are some of them we know about:

--Melo's game is not well rounded enough, and Melo's personality is not quite mature enough.
--Iverson was changed from PG to SG many years ago for mysterious but valid reasons that must have something to do with Iverson's personality, and it would be futile to try to fight the tide of history to officially recognize AI as the PG for Denver this year. So AI can play PG but it can not be admitted in public that he does so, and he can not be designated as the PG, because you can't mess with history and tradition and personality like that.
--J.R. Smith is unqualified to start or to be a full scale NBA shooting guard by virtue of a deficient personality/character.
--Yakhouba Diawara somehow proved to have a personality too weak to avoid a more or less permanent benching.
--The Nuggets as a whole have a soft or wobbly "personality". When your team has that, you are automatically doomed.

To Karl, there are massive forces, such as tradition, history, destiny, "team personalities," and personalities of individual players, that determine results, and neither players nor a coaching staff can overcome those forces, so why should he or the assistant coaches get all worked up about trying to win each and every game?

Since he decided in advance that the Nuggets were not worthy of reaching the top 4, and since there is no telling how many reasons he has piled up for that, he does not believe he is responsible for the results. Nor would he feel responsible for making lineup, rotation, and other game management mistakes, assuming it could be proven to him that he made mistakes that cost the Nuggets. He would respond, like he always does when challenged, by saying the Nuggets would have ended up in almost exactly the same final result even if those decisions were made differently.

In other words, Mr. Karl has built himself a fortress to protect himself from ever accepting even the slightest responsibility for the Nuggets not reaching their true potential, which is final 4 in the West minimum. If he is ever fired he will not accept even a small shred of responsibility. Rather, he will look at his long career and say that he had to be a worthy basketball man simply because of how long his career lasted.

The trouble for him is, his reasons are neither logically sound nor truly explanatory in the real world. I'm sorry, but personalities do not decide who among the most talented teams actually reach the very top. And I'm sorry, but nothing is determined in advance unless you say it is. If you think you can't win, then you almost certainly will not win. If you are a coach who thinks that way, and you can't keep that a secret and coach as if you don't believe that, then you have failed as a coach. End of story.

It really doesn't matter much whether the Nuggets have become slackers or not, or to what extent Karl's strange beliefs have rubbed off on them. Because first and foremost they did not get what they needed.

The Nuggets came to the table with all the raw talent needed to be truly outstanding but with no basketball system and with little real confidence they could actually get to the top. They needed roles defined rationally, they needed a coherent offensive plan, they needed a few specific plays. Individual players needed protection from arbitrary and rhythm killing benchings. A few players just needed a little playing time. They didn't get any of those things.

Most of all they needed real confidence. The Nuggets are mostly players who grew up on the wrong side of the tracks, more so than on other teams. I used to think that most NBA teams are loaded with players who grew up on the wrong side of the tracks. In the last few years I found out that this is simply not true. But it is true in the case of the Nuggets, many of them come from straight from the ghetto. You run short on real confidence your whole life when you grow up that way.

How someone thinks is the most crucial part of that person's personality. What someone thinks results from how someone thinks. For a man who thinks personality is so important, Mr. Karl seems strangely ignorant of the power of positive thinking, or real confidence in other words. True, real confidence without the real potential to get the results is lame, but not having real confidence when you do have the real potential to get the results is both lame and idiotic.

Why is Melo out all night after the Nuggets squeak into the playoffs, only to be pulled over and suspected of DUI? Because he is so lacking in real confidence that he was worried the Nuggets would miss the playoffs, and it would be partly blamed on him, so when at least the Nuggets made the playoffs, he had to be out all night celebrating that the stress was over. The bigger the gap between where you are and where you are supposed to be, the more you irrationally over celebrate getting to that lower level.

The last 24 hours have been another wild ride on the Nuggets roller coaster, happy and sad at the same time. But mostly sad, really.
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The next posting will be commentary that was made during games against the Lakers in the playoff series. That posting is titled: "Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From Late April, 2008, Part 1".

Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From April, 2008

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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APRIL 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

It turns out this forum, compared with other forums, is higher ranked in terms of real activity and real interest in the Denver Nuggets than I thought. There are some forums out there where this poll is getting views but very few votes or responses, but I'm getting a decent number of votes here so far. So thanks for voting in this poll.

To all those who think this poll is not important: it could not be more important than it is. Whether the Nuggets will go forward toward the West finals next year or start dropping back to being a 20-62 team, and whether the Andre Miller for Allen Iverson trade was a good trade or not, are just two of the many important things that are tied in with the question in this poll.
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The Allen Iverson at PG and J.R. Smith at SG backcourt has been grossly outperforming the Anthony Carter at PG and Allen Iverson at SG backcourt.

Wow, I would have thought that somebody would have claimed by now that the plus-minus performance measure can not be used to measure performance, with little or no evidence to back it up, and despite the fact that the League itself adopted it into their permanent record keeping recently after studying it to make sure it was valid and useful.

Which leads me to believe that when he and some others said that A.I. can not play the point, they meant it in some combination of the political, the religious, the traditional, and the historical senses of that phrase.

They didn't actually mean that A.I. is poor at playing point guard, did they? I still don't know absolutely for sure, because the arguments that were made were so vague and limited that you still can't say for sure. But if I had to bet, I'd say at least 1/3 of them mean that A.I. can't play PG because that would be spoiling the historical flow of basketball. Or it would be cheating the historical value of basketball. Or something like that. They're too nervous to put it like that, so I had to do it for them.

If anyone has a serious criticism of the plus-minus, please comment.
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Thanks for all the votes and all the comments, I continue to think this is huge for the Nuggets. I have to go back to those AI/Yak November games and take a close look at those; I forgot about those.

After 1 1/2 days of voting around the internet, the total vote is:

29 Votes for A) Anthony Carter PG and Allen Iverson SG
51 Votes for B ) Allen Iverson PG and J.R. Smith SG
10 Votes for C) Allen Iverson PG and Yakhouba Diawara SG

I want at least 300 votes, but am not sure I'm going to get much past 250 though. As of now, I am going to keep counting until I get at least 250 votes, or until the end of April, whichever comes last.

Anyone who hasn't voted yet, please vote if you know enough about the subject. There are many more votes to come, so the margins and the rankings of the choices can change a lot in the days ahead.
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Ok, I probably overreacted to your phrases because you have the uncanny ability to make it sound like you are speaking for millions of people all at once. At least it seems that way to me. So I am amending the previous post, and you can use anything you want other than obvious ad hominem attacks. I'll follow the same rule: no ad hominems.

When you use a phrase that makes it seem like much of the sports world is speaking at once, I'll just note the particular phrase and make sure everyone understands it's just you speaking and not thousands or millions. But as I say, I probably underestimated the ability of readers to tell that.

As for the criticism itself, fire away, because I get motivated to make my arguments and evidence even stronger when I get criticism. Remember though, the more clear and detailed your points, and the more evidence you might have, the better for your side. If your points are indirect or incomplete, you have already seen what I might do: flesh them out for you. If you don't want me to do that, then make your point direct, clear and complete, so that I can't do that.
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No matter what happens to the Nuggets, it's been great watching J.R. Smith exceed anyone's expectations. And it's been great watching AI play BOTH guard positions extremely well.

Also, it's been great watching K-Mart return and play well. These are the top 3 highlights that come to mind. Melo has been great but no greater than expected really, and everyone suspects he could be better, especially on defense.
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Hello SportsTwo writers, and happy March Madness.

Thanks for all the votes and all the comments, I continue to think this is huge for the Nuggets.

Anyone who hasn't voted, please vote if you know enough about the subject.

After almost 4 1/2 days of voting around the internet, the total vote is:

38 Votes or 33% for A) Anthony Carter PG and Allen Iverson SG
66 Votes or 57% for B ) Allen Iverson PG and J.R. Smith SG
11 Votes or 10% for C) Allen Iverson PG and Yakhouba Diawara SG

I want at least 300 votes, but am not sure I'm going to get much past 250 though. As of now, I am going to keep counting until I get at least 250 votes, or until the end of April, whichever comes last. Even though I go to all the forums, my vote counted as 1 vote only.
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You have the Raptors explained very well.

The Nuggets have problems that are very similar. I called the Raptors and the Nuggets two peas in the same pod in the report, because each team is missing one critical ingredient. Neither team has a dominant playmaker, which is a killer for both of them, because if either team had one, either offense would be about the best in the NBA. The Raptors have an out in the open "quarterback controversy," because they have not decided between Calderon and Ford as their true, main PG. So then you had Bosh in this game trying to make up for the lack of a dominant playmaker by making more assists than you want a power forward to make for an efficient offense.

The Nuggets also have a quarterback controversy, but it is one that the coaching staff hopes no one knows about, but that I have been writing about since about the beginning of 2008. As I like to say, there are no secrets on the internet!
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Yeah, that's who it is supposed to be, but he can't be truly dominant when Anthony Carter is playing 22 or more minutes a game, when Carter is considered to be the starting point guard, and when Carter occasionally actually does make a lot of plays in a game. That's precisely the big problem: Carter is interfering with Iverson's potential to be the dominant playmaker for the Nuggets. The Nuggets offense is not only lacking set plays, it is also lacking a consistent playmaking pattern from one game to the next. Games are ranging from mostly Carter being the playmaker to both equally to mostly Iverson. You can win more games if you keep that about the same from game to game, as most of the playoff teams do.
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This comment was made when Carmelo Anthony was arrested for driving under the influence in the middle of April, 2008:

Doesn't surprise me in the least. This is the best Nuggets team yet but they came within a sliver of missing the playoffs. Had the Nuggets missed the playoffs, the average Joe Blow would have been blaming Melo even though he had nothing to do with how the team was managed. The stress of that is huge; even I got stressed out about it and I am only a fan and a writer. Having an extra drink is a well known reaction to heavy stress.

Melo is not dumb, he knows this team is not managed as well as it could be. He has played under several other coaches, such as Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, who would not have the team in as "wild" a state as this one is. A wild type of team and just barely making the playoffs is enough to cause anyone to have an extra drink or two. I saw a YouTube video not long ago where Melo looked like he was under the influence, and he remarked to a friend of his who was just sitting in a car that the Nuggets had good players who few knew about, because they were not even getting playing time to speak of.

And I would only be a little surprised if it was really DWI instead of DUI, but there was a backroom deal to make it DUI, since Melo might have been out for the playoffs if it had been DWI.
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Dallas will almost certainly beat the Hornets because for the Hornets that game is a back to back road game. The Nuggets are most likely to play the Lakers in the best of 7.

ROUGH ODDS
4-3 Lakers 0.2% chance (1/500)
4-2 Lakers 30% chance
4-1 Lakers 45% chance
4-0 Lakers 25% chance

Return of Nuggets 1: Forum #2 Comments From Late March 2008, Part 5

Forum commentary I did from March 2008 through July 2008, when I didn't have time to do the detailed and extensive reports that I like to do, is being posted in early October, 2008. The primary themes are how the Nuggets are blowing a great (and expensive!) opportunity to play the game of basketball in such a way that respects the sport and that takes as much advantage as possible of who they have on the roster. The 2006-09 Nuggets have turned out to be an excellent case study of how not to run a basketball team; many things you should not do if you are a basketball manager or coach can be identified from what the Nuggets actually did during these years.

In these comments, do not look for the usual huge amount of detail and proof that you see in the ordinary releases here at Nuggets 1. Some of this is more like everyday conversation than like top quality sports writing. On the other hand, some of the comments do include some detailed reasoning and proof that I pride myself on in the primary reports I release.
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LATE MARCH 2008 FORUM COMMENTARY ON THE NUGGETS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THEIR MISTAKES

PG's don't sit around thinking about what to do like writers sit around thinking about what to write. They just do it, like in the Nike add. The "making correct decisions" idea is overrated, because there are many possible offensive styles and many possible point guard styles that can be successful. Successful point guards who have different sytles are by definition making different decisions. With AI, you don't have to worry much about his decision making, his style, whether he is a "floor general" or not, or anything else that is subjective. This is by far the most important thing you need to focus on:

(1) AI at PG for the Nuggets: All Benefits - All Costs = ???
(2) AI at SG for the Nuggets: All Benefits - All Costs = ???

You have to estimate 1 and 2, and figure out which is the bigger. I am already overloaded with evidence that Karl picked 2 when the correct answer is 1. I am going to go back in time and see if data on the internet permits me to figure out whether Larry Brown made the wrong decision in 1997.

But I mostly agree with you as usual but there is a big problem for the Nuggets: the Nuggets are tapped out financially. The only way they could get a dream PG would be to gut the front court with a big trade, and the overall result would probably be that the costs would exceed the benefits. What I am saying is that a coach must make the best decision he can make in the circumstances that exist in a point in time. If the coach has a tough situation to deal with, then the only solution may be to make a decsion that is slightly controversial and/or unusually creative.

NBA coaches who only try to be traditional, cautious and conservative lose out in the end.
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Read more carefully, I am not talking about anyone being in the wrong position except Allen Iverson on the Denver Nuggets, and maybe on the 76'ers if data availability permits. If you think you have demonstrated that players are never in the wrong position, I feel sorry for you.
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Someone launched a possibly valid criticism:

One of the many fundamental problems with how you are attempting to prove this is by linking Karl and Brown's decisions. You lose all credibility when you do that.

Never let them see you sweat! My response was:

They were the exact same decisions. They both went against the majority of coaches who thought Iverson should be PG. The rest of the investigation is to try to find out what the exact circumstances were in Philadelphia in 1997. I am reasonably sure that Brown had more justification than Karl does, but did Brown have enough justification or not?
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And another attack on my preliminary evidence about Iverson being mis-coached:

Another fundamental problem that ruins your credibility is this discussion about what his HS and college coaches did with AI. What AI did in HS and college have zero impact on what he does in the NBA. The NBA game is a different animal from both HS and college and the position anyone plays at that level means nothing in regards to NBA success or failure.

My response:

I already explained that the coach counts were a preliminary or introductory evidence. And basketball is basketball, and you have exactly the same positions in high school and college as you have in the NBA, so to say that you can't use what happened in high school or college at all is going way, way too far.
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This guy will argue with anyone all night. He continues on with a possibly valid criticism that had to be shot down:

You are building volumes of circumstantial "evidence" that doesn't have any value and is all easily and quickly refuted. While you obviously believe it helps build your case, the reality is that it ruins your credibility.

It was shot down thusly:

It's preliminary evidence, it allows me to proceed with the project and to justify working to get the heavy duty evidence.

I don't have to have only slam dunk evidence. I am no longer trying to prove something that the majority automatically scoff at. Keep in mind that among some of the best fans of the Nuggets, fans who take the time to read Nuggets forums, you have the following:

1. % of Fans Who Think Iverson Should be the Point Guard: 50-70%
2. % of Fans Who Think the Iverson PG / Smith SG backcourt is better than the Carter PG / Iverson SG backcourt: 55-75%
3. % of Fans Who Think Karl should retire or be fired for his mistakes: 65-85%

These are conservative estimates. These percentages have been rising steadily over the course of this season.

If time permits, I am going to be setting up polls on various forums to confirm these estimates, which are based on extensive reading of relevant topics on various forums.
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You want to know why I think that Karl simply followed Brown's decision due to Brown being one of his best friends and one of his mentors?

Because Karl never seriously considered playing A.I. at the point when he lost his planned point guard for most of the season, and because Karl has been relying on A.I. for both scoring and playmaking with no concern at all for the style and tactical stuff that all the smartest basketball minds talk about on the internet. In other words, Karl has used Iverson exactly the way Brown used him, in every last detail. There hasn't been the slightest adjustment.

There is something very suspicious about that if you ask me, something that seems to go beyond Karl just not doing the smart thing.
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I was going through this thread one more time to see if I missed something that could be useful to me and I found this. Earlier when I read this, I didn't think it was significant, but now I do. So maybe this discussion was definitely worth about 3 hours after all.

Maybe only by accident, and I don't know whether you think that is what Karl has been thinking or not, but I think you may have hit upon the mindset of Brown and Karl. And this is what I was going to have a hell of a hard time to understand, because I don't think like they do. In fairness to me, I probably would have thought of this sooner or later, but it might have been later rather than sooner.

At this time, I think this may be at the root of at least the Karl decision and possibly the Brown decision also. We know that Brown and especially Karl are more concerned with the history, traditions and honor of basketball than they are about the nuts and bolts of winning games. To Karl, only the very best players and teams are really part of the history and traditions of basketball, ordinary players and teams are just along for the ride so to speak.

So it is the best players who will get whatever it is that Karl is willing to give as a gift for becoming history. And it is plausible that Karl decided to give A.I. as a gift the only position that he could give him without disrespecting the history and traditons of basketball, because Iverson is part of that gospel now. Iverson has played SG for so long that it would be violating a tradition of basketball to change it now.

Basketball is sort of like a religion to Karl, and playing A.I. at the point would be like violating one of the ten commandments. Karl may possibly have known that the Nuggets would have been better off with Iverson at PG, but he couldn't do it, because both starting Smith and playing AI at the point both would have violated the history, traditions, and honor of basketball, although for totally different reasons.

I guess it was worth the time after all, just barely though. Thanks.
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One last, important thought:

I was disturbed by the number of people claiming that "A.I. can't play PG." Now I realize that the real number is less than it appears. Because when some of those who say A.I. can't play PG say that, they mean it in the religious sense, that A.I. playing point would go against doctrine, against the glorious traditions and history of basketball. You can't mess with the legacy of a player like A.I., it violates things that should not be violated.

There had to be some explanation for the surprisingly large minority, of people saying "A.I. can't play PG." Apparently, some of you didn't mean it in the normal literal sense, you meant it in the sense that it would be going against tradition or basketball history or basketball doctrine for him to be assigned those responsibilities.

You meant it in the sense of the Lord of basketball speaking from the mountaintop, bellowing: "A.I. MUST ALWAYS PLAY 2-GUARD IN ACCORDANCE WITH MY REPRESENTATIVE ON EARTH, LARRY BROWN. NEVER ASSIGN AI TO POINT GUARD, MY SONS.

George Karl trembled and obeyed. (laugh out loud)

But why didn't you just come out and say that. If that's what you think, say it. You finally said it in a very indirect way, and maybe by accident, and he will most likely deny that is what he meant, whether or not that is what he meant. (Laugh out loud.)

I am out and I definitely will have no time to ever come back to this thread again, not even to read it. In fact, the only way I will ever spend this much time on any thread will be if there is a new error affecting the Nuggets this big and this damaging in the future. It may be a very long time before that happens. I did this because the Nuggets paid a huge price over this mistake. It's clear the trade was a mistake now in fact, and that has to be explained to my Nuggets fans readers. So I had to get to the bottom of it, or else I would not have been doing my full duty as a writer.

Today, I do a lot more than just issue "light and fluffy opinions" about what I cover under my own editorial auspices. I started out that way but I have expanded my efforts. As a result, I have dedicated readers around the World, especially in Australia, Germany, France, and of course Colorado.

If you want to agree or disagree further, follow the project as it goes along and post in upcoming Nuggets reports, but I won't have a lot of time to discuss, bui I will have some time here and there.
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This poll, on the question that most impacted the Nuggets tn 2007-08, is being posted on approximately 20 Nuggets forums. Combined results will be reported here sometime in April.
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DO NOT FAIL TO VOTE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT VOTE TOTAL. Any of the choices can still win. These results are extremely early, the vote will be held open for at least 3 weeks, and the objective is to get at least 200 votes from the best and most informed Nuggets fans.


After 6-9 hours of voting on various forums, the combined vote as of now is:

Anthony Carter PG Allen Iverson SG........ 12 Votes
Allen Iverson PG J.R. Smith SG.............. 29 Votes
Allen Iverson PG Yakhouba Diawara SG........6 Votes